Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yeah, the EU is rules based.

Ireland, not so much. It is one of the sometimes annoying but also likeable things about us.

So officially we must implement a hard border the day after No Deal Brexit, but in practice we may drag our feet and do our best to look as if we are trying while actually not doing much.

And Brexit Britain may collapse before we have to.

While Britain is much more important to Ireland, in terms of trade, than Britain
is to Ireland, Britain exports more to Ireland than Ireland exports to Britain. But this seems to be lost in the fog of Brexiteer lies.

In that context, arch Brexiteer Simon Jenkins was on Newsnight last night playing hard man. Basically, he was saying that the EU will giive Britain what it wants because countries like Ireland, Germany and France have so much to lose. Simon 'forgets' that while Britain can bully Ireland with tarriffs, the EU can bully Britain with tarriffs - with only one winner.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That there will be a hard border if they crash out...is not a 'card' though, it is a known certainty and we should be spelling out the impending reality of it, by fully revealing what form it will take and who is at fault for it.

Why though? Also it has been spelt out without these specific details multiple times, what honestly do you think we would gain by publishing our specific plans apart from you feeling a bit better about it?

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

...Britain exports more to Ireland than Ireland exports to Britain. But this seems to be lost in the fog of Brexiteer lies.

.... that while Britain can bully Ireland with tarriffs, the EU can bully Britain with tarriffs - with only one winner.

The EU27 will not and need not bully Britain. The EU27 will - from day one - apply the EU's MFN tariffs and all coming from the UK into the EU27.

The Irish land border is, however, in the context of value and volume a very insignificant UK border and it seems the EU27 will focus its efforts on traffic from Dover and from other large UK export harbours.

A 'festina lente' EU border policy on the island of Ireland would be not be any surprice to me.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

And Brexit Britain may collapse before we have to.

Politically very fast and economically not much later.

Lars

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The Irish government shouldn't be pussyfooting around what brexiteers might say or do though, whether they be from Antrim or Finchley.

Tell the truth and let the cards fall where they may.

The real problem with that approach is that it will import Brexit poison to Irish political discourse. Irish government, opposition politicians and media are happy to live in a state of ignorance with regards to the future of the border if no deal is the result. By not having to confront the issue now, it keeps the Irish side united. Injecting a dose of realism now would fracture the approach at home and give those that seek no deal in the UK something to latch into.

As I've said previously, the strategy of the government is clearly to ignore the border or lightly enforce it at most in the short term in the hope that the UK will be forced to come back to the table when it's shook out of it's nationalist stupor. However should that not arise the open border will be untenable. Ireland will then be forced to make a choice, whether to align with Westminster or Brussels.

The Irish government will choose Brussels simply because it is less economically damaging to introduce restrictions at the border than see the multinationals leave en masse.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Just for clarity, no there not a lot if time.
Brexit will happen at the end of October unless the UK change course and there's currently nothing to suggest that this will happen.

Yes, there is.

Last time they faced the cliff edge, they did not jump. The time before, same. They had two opportunities to go for No Deal, and they didn't want it. Nothing (literally nothing) has happened since then to change anyone's mind.

So that means that unless something changes, the most likely outcome in October is the same outcome as on March 29th and 10th April - another extension.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes there is.


Last time they faced the cliff edge, they did not jump. The time before, same. They had two opportunities to go for No Deal, and they didn't want it. Nothing (literally nothing) has happened since then to change anyone's mind.


So that means that unless something changes, the most likely outcome in October is the same outcome as on March 29th and 10th April - another extension.

There will be one difference this time.
If the UK do not leave on the 31st Oct, there will be a GE.
The Labour conference in September is likely to call for a second referendum.
It may come down to the likes of Dominic Grieve scuppering the Tory extremists of delivering a hard Brexit.

EU (Tusk) have said they will allow an extension beyond Oct 31 if it is to facilitate either a GE or referendum.

Tell me how wrote: »

There will be one difference this time.
If the UK do not leave on the 31st Oct, there will be a GE.
The Labour conference in September is likely to call for a second referendum.
It may come down to the likes of Dominic Grieve scuppering the Tory extremists of delivering a hard Brexit.

EU (Tusk) have said they will allow an extension beyond Oct 31 if it is to facilitate either a GE or referendum.

The problem there is that there are some Leave Labour MPs who might vote with the Tory extremists. Some of them would back No Deal rather than Remain.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That there will be a hard border if they crash out...is not a 'card' though, it is a known certainty and we should be spelling out the impending reality of it, by fully revealing what form it will take and who is at fault for it.

Don't see any point in playing the blame game.

UK and ROI are in the EU when GFA is negotiated, no one anticipates or builds into the agreement something like Brexit which sees NI and ROI diverge in terms of customs etc.

UK decides to leave the EU in the hardest way possible thus creating a customs border.

EU doesn't want to put up a hard border but is obliged to protect it's market and people from non conforming/potentially dangerous products.

Hard border is the only option until alternative solutions are actually workable and pass functionality tests. Even the British Civil Service admit that will take at least 10 years to develop, test and implement.

Anyone who can't see where the fundamental blame lies for creating a customs border either isn't looking or doesn't want to know.

If the EU starts pointing the finger at the UK it won't achieve anything as the only people who could benefit from such a clarification are those who aren't interested in the truth and who believe anything the EU says must be a lie.

We should save our breath, focus on implementing as soft a border as possible in order to fulfil our obligations and put our energy into mitigating the effects on ourselves and our EU partners whilst at the same time taking no pleasure in watching the UK implode and avoiding the temptation to say "I told you so".

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It makes it tougher for those advocating for Brexit to spin lies. And that, at this point, IS crucially important.

There are those who remain to be convinced either way in the UK and it to those we(the EU) would be talking.
Spelling out again and again the reality of what will happen and why it is happening is not engaging in a blame game...it is keeping the truth front and centre of the inevitable debate.

Spell it out now BEFORE a No Deal Brexit? Absolutely.

Continue spelling it out AFTER a No Deal Brexit? Waste of time and energy. The EU would only be fanning the flames of those hard Brexiteers who'd be looking for someone to blame once the sunny uplands they'd promised Brexit would deliver turns into a self inflicted economic, social and political implosion without historic precedent.

MrMusician18 wrote:

You really think on B-day+1 that border checks are going to be enforced and tariffs collected? There is no infrastructure in place and this is allegedly happening at the end of October. For local, transit or other traffic.

Whatever way it is managed, it will not be Ireland "dragging its feet" or pretending to do anything.

MrMusician18 wrote:

The Irish attitude to protecting the integrity of the single market will be called into question after hard Brexit and the Irish government will probably be given up to a year to get it's enforcement in order. It will be in this period that the Irish Government are clearly hoping for a change in the political direction of the UK.

If the border on this island is not controlled, then our membership of the Single Market will be suspended until it is.

MrMusician18 wrote:

Ultimately it will come down to a choice between following the UK or the single market and Ireland will choose the single market despite the difficulty in implementing it's rules at the border.

Of course it will. Our entire economic strategy is based on it.

I suspect that in the event of a "no deal" scenario, Ireland will effectively erect a "one way" border control for goods. The Irish agribusiness sector will be very protective of it's standards, and i think controls similar to what were used during the foot & mouth crisis would be implemented.
People movement unaffected, but checks on goods vehicles definately. As for goods leaving the country, I'm not aware of any tariffs for exported goods (gas? Minerals? Maybe). So no need for Ireland to check those as they leave the state.
I can't see "mainland" Britain getting too worried about the NI goods/border in the event of a no deal, there will be enough going on elsewhere to deal with- it certainly won't be a priority. Hopefully Boris can finagle a GE which results in the DUP not holding the balance and then the backstop can be limited to NI (as in the initial withdrawal agreement). While idealogically distasteful to Unionists, its by far in the best interests of both Unions.
M.

First Up wrote: »

If the border on this island is not controlled, then our membership of the Single Market will be suspended until it is.

In the even of a hard Brexit on Oct 31st, Ireland's membership of the Single Market will be suspended on November 1st?

Laois_Man wrote:

In the even of a hard Brexit on Oct 31st, Ireland's membership of the Single Market will be suspended on November 1st?

If we don't police the EU border in Ireland, it will be policed between Ireland and the rest of the EU. The procedures may be at the Irish port of departure or the EU port of arrival but there will be procedures.

Enzokk wrote: »

Seems like Corbyn is having a difficult meeting with his Shadow Cabinet on Brexit. He still wants to delay it seems, they are intent on Labour settling on a policy.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1143534143101460480

Thornberry and McDonnell and Abbott seem to be telling Corbyn there is no more delaying, Labour needs to back a second referendum and Remain or lose votes.

His fence sitting is beyond farcical at this stage