Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

George Canning lasted 119 days as PM - Boris will take office on July 24th, he just has to make it to November 20th to get off the bottom of the table.


The last election took 49 days, so Boris probably has to last until 2nd of October... it's very tight, with Brexit Day on the 1st, there is a very real possibility of another shambles in Westminster in the runup to a No Deal in October, an election is triggered, and Boris could end up as the PM with the shortest tenure in the history of Prime Ministers.


With a bit of luck.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That isn't it. As soon as Leo shows his hand, the Brexiteers will shout Wahoo and ignore the Border, the GFA, and NI in general. If the EU is erecting a border, then it won't be their problem anymore (in their heads).

The Irish government shouldn't be pussyfooting around what brexiteers might say or do though, whether they be from Antrim or Finchley.

Tell the truth and let the cards fall where they may.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Why?


Why not keep your cards close to your chest, and play out the hand?


Especially when you know the other guy is a really bad bluffer.

What 'cards'? There is going to be a border if you exit without a deal. No prevarication.

You have been told that the need for a border that 'you' created will have consequences.

There are no 'cards' to be played on this.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The Irish government shouldn't be pussyfooting around what brexiteers might say or do though, whether they be from Antrim or Finchley.

Tell the truth and let the cards fall where they may.

Completely disagree its worked tremendously well so far, also you only have to look across at the UK to see how badly simply laying all your cards on the table for everyone to see can go.


If the Irish government pin their colours to a specific mast it will give the brexiteers something conrete to aim at, the lack of something for them to aim at means they will continue flailing around lying and bluffing about complete rubbish like gatt 24 and magical non existing "technology" as a solution to the border.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What 'cards'? There is going to be a border if you exit without a deal. No prevarication.

You have been told that the need for a border that 'you' created will have consequences.

There are no 'cards' to be played on this.

Yes, there are. You are watching them play right now, and calling on Leo to show his hand to the other players. He is, quite rightly, saying that the UK have not finished betting.

Maybe the UK will come to realize that the GFA, a deal with the EU and their own desire to become a buccaneering world trader means the NI backstop is best for them, and no border Brexit happens without Leo having to show his hand at all.

Or maybe Boris decides to try No Deal, and Leo makes a big show of sighing and telling people in NI sorry, we have no choice but to start looking at these worst-case contingency plans for...

... and before he's even finished saying he'll show his hand, the UK ports have collapsed, shelves are empty, Boris is deposed and PM Corbyn of the National Emergency Government asks the EU for emergency relief and accepts the backstop.

There is a lot of time before Brexit happens. It could be years. It might never happen. Even if it happens in October, that is not the end of the game, just one round.

Showing your cards at this point in the game is a ridiculous idea.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, there are. You are watching them play right now, and calling on Leo to show his hand to the other players. He is, quite rightly, saying that the UK have not finished betting.

Maybe the UK will come to realize that the GFA, a deal with the EU and their own desire to become a buccaneering world trader means the NI backstop is best for them, and no border Brexit happens without Leo having to show his hand at all.

Or maybe Boris decides to try No Deal, and Leo makes a big show of sighing and telling people in NI sorry, we have no choice but to start looking at these worst-case contingency plans for...

... and before he's even finished saying he'll show his hand, the UK ports have collapsed, shelves are empty, Boris is deposed and PM Corbyn of the National Emergency Government asks the EU for emergency relief and accepts the backstop.

There is a lot of time before Brexit happens. It could be years. It might never happen. Even if it happens in October, that is not the end of the game, just one round.

Showing your cards at this point in the game is a ridiculous idea.

What 'cards' are there to be played if they crash out? None whatsoever.

To my mind the average Brexiteer does not know clearly enough what will happen, because everyone is pussy footing around the issue.

Spell out what happens and who will be held to account for it. That is called 'applying pressure' in my book and it is exactly what we should be doing in stereo with the rest of the EU.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What 'cards' are there to be played if they crash out? None whatsoever.

To my mind the average Brexiteer does not know clearly enough what will happen, because everyone is pussy footing around the issue.

Spell out what happens and who will be held to account for it. That is called 'applying pressure' in my book and it is exactly what we should be doing in stereo with the rest of the EU.

Irish government has handled Brexit and the border implications thus far close to perfectly in my view. Evidenced by the fact that industry both North and South hadn't been complaining about their approach.

Revealing any more or starting to plan publicly for No Deal will allow UK to respond to Irish action instead of proposing their own. That would be a significant bonus to pm contenders and wider UK government.

I disagree that should there be problems, delays in a no deal scenario after Oct 31st that it's the fault of Ireland/EU.

VinLieger wrote: »

But the brexiteers arent playing by those rules.


If Leo comes out tomorrow and says "here's our infrastructure plans for the hard border in the case of no deal" then Boris, Mogg et all will jump on it and start claiming Ireland are the ones who want a hard border and the tories are doing their best to avoid it but the big bad EU and Ireland wont let them and all kinds of other bluster and lies. Then the people who should be held to account for the hard border as you want will be just dodge all blame because their brexiteer supporters will eat those lies up.

They are doing this already. We have to stop being afraid of anything Brexiteers think.

'Here is what will happen and why if you are stupid enough to believe we are doing it because this is what we want...then you are a fool'.

You don't need to use those words, but it should be exactly what we mean at this late stage.
You either believe the truth is on your side or you don't.

It wont apply any pressure to the people you want it to be applied to it will simply give them another false talking point to start spouting on about akin to the Gatt 24 lies and that will be a new way for them to pad out the news cycle and keep any real facts from reaching the public.

It makes no difference then. Spell out the truth again and again, stop trying to mollycoodle/cajole these people into a place they have no intention of going.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They are doing this already. We have to stop being afraid of anything Brexiteers think.

'Here is what will happen and why if you are stupid enough to believe we are doing it because this is what we want...then you are a fool'.

You don't need to use those words, but it should be exactly what we mean at this late stage.
You either believe the truth is on your side or you don't.



It makes no difference then. Spell out the truth again and again, stop trying to mollycoodle/cajole these people into a place they have no intention of going.

Honestly though what will what you want to do achieve? You are looking to punish them out of frustration it seems, but can you even imagine how frustrated Varadkar, Junker, Tusk etc are and they think the current strategy is still the best course of action.

Theres no reason realistically to publicly announce these measures, it wont gain us anything in the long run. I dont trust the government with a lot but in this case I do due to the way they have handled everything thus far that their plans are ready to go if required unlike the UK.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Spell out what happens and who will be held to account for it. That is called 'applying pressure' in my book and it is exactly what we should be doing in stereo with the rest of the EU.

That was tried, albeit in a half-hearted way, during the referendum and was promptly labelled "Project Fear". You cannot apply that kind of pressure to someone who refuses to believe anything you say because you are the one saying it.

In any case, just about all the information is already spelt out in dozens of EU-published statements, some of which have also been replicated and/or expanded upon by HMG for a British audience; if interested parties in the UK choose not to read them, then that's their lookout. It's not the EU's job (and definitely not Leo Varadkar's) to tell the Brits what to think or who to hold accountable.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That's it in a nutshell...the info is all out there already, but because we are pussyfooting around afraid to offend and not spelling it out clearly- British media is still able to play games. I.E. Project 'The EU is Pressuring Ireland'.
You also have many many Irish people who are unsure as to what will happen too, which is not helping.

Gees, come on Francie.
As said, Irish industry is happy with strategy.
V interesting you use phrases like 'pussy footing' regarding it.

You seem to want UK media to change from 'Eu is pressuring Ireland' to 'Eu and Ireland want a hard border and will not try our plans which would avoid it'

Deleted User wrote: »

What makes you think we haven't?
The message coming from all corners of the EU is essentially the Irish message.

No point doing it in public and giving sensationalist headlines to the British press.

Ahead of some sort of vote on this, another referendum or a GE we should be hoping to persuade the British public of the no-win situation they are in. I.E. turn unconvinced Leavers into Remainers and sow a little doubt into hardened Brexiteers.
Leave no doubt in what we are saying. As we have seen the British media will play games no matter what we do.

The one positive aspect of Brexit to date is that it has encouraged the EU to speed up the negotiation of FTAs - one with Vietnam will be signed on Sunday, which is far less controversial than the Mercosur talks which are also nearing their conclusion:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/06/25/eu-vietnam-council-adopts-decisions-to-sign-trade-and-investment-agreements/

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If you read the bit of my post which you quoted in your response, you will see that I already explained one gambit for that scenario, but you are obviously not reading what I write.

That there will be a hard border if they crash out...is not a 'card' though, it is a known certainty and we should be spelling out the impending reality of it, by fully revealing what form it will take and who is at fault for it.