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Media: House Prices in Dublin falling by EUR1,000 per month

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135

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    #62
    Nikki Sixx
    Closed Accounts Posts: 426 ✭✭Nikki Sixx


    alwald wrote: »
    I feel sorry for all those who bought their first home during the boom and are in negative equity. They had noway to know what was gonna happen.

    I feel sorry for anybody who bought a house in the last few months, as we have early signs that the arse will fall out of the current housing market.


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    #63
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,281 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Nikki Sixx wrote: »
    I feel sorry for anybody who bought a house in the last few months, as we have early signs that the arse will fall out of the current housing market.

    We are seeing the effects of fiscal controls and increased supply.

    The opposite of an arse falling out of anything


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    #64
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »
    Why would the stability of any market depend on runaway costs? Would you listen to yourself.

    Brexit is a factor but its a totally different argumentt.

    Profit not "runaway costs" ,your words.


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    #65
    Nikki Sixx
    Closed Accounts Posts: 426 ✭✭Nikki Sixx


    lawred2 wrote: »
    We are seeing the effects of fiscal controls and increased supply.

    The opposite of an arse falling out of anything

    Oh so it’s all part of a well thought out plan? I think the government is utterly clueless, when it comes to housing.


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    #66
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    Lumen wrote: »
    Where is the evidence that they are trying to do this? What actions have they taken?

    The lending caps are a pre emptive attempt as was the drive to draw in outside investment ie vulture funds etc to diversify risk, all done at the behest of the ECB who didn't trust us to run a property market again .


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    #67
    Cal4567
    Registered Users Posts: 625 ✭✭✭Cal4567


    Nikki Sixx wrote: »
    I feel sorry for anybody who bought a house in the last few months, as we have early signs that the arse will fall out of the current housing market.

    Everyone needs somewhere to live and if we have to see our home as an investment, it is as a very long term one. You could buy shares, then watch them dip in value, but if you don't need to sell them, you hold onto them until it is right to sell - hopefully with a return.

    Anyone closely following the property market in Dubln over the last year could see this coming. However I am also sure many have been very happy to buy over the last year, if it meant they no longer had to fork out so much in rent.


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    #68
    JoeyJJ
    Registered Users Posts: 3,663 ✭✭✭JoeyJJ


    Wonder what cherrywood will do to the market, if demand is more adequately met and a big traunch of homes become available. Alot of rent only properties down there hopefully helps crazy rents been achieved.


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    #69
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,021 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    Nikki Sixx wrote: »
    I feel sorry for anybody who bought a house in the last few months, as we have early signs that the arse will fall out of the current housing market.

    Went sale agreed in Jan, closed and moved in in April, I love the place. Couldn't give a **** what happens in the next 5-10 years. Certainly don't need anyone feeling sorry for me.


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    #70
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,281 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Nikki Sixx wrote: »
    Oh so it’s all part of a well thought out plan? I think the government is utterly clueless, when it comes to housing.

    Fiscal rules come from the central bank. Supply comes from private developers.

    Neither of which have much to do with the government.

    What the government can't or won't solve is social housing.


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    #71
    Nikki Sixx
    Closed Accounts Posts: 426 ✭✭Nikki Sixx


    Interested Observer wrote: »
    Went sale agreed in Jan, closed and moved in in April, I love the place. Couldn't give a **** what happens in the next 5-10 years. Certainly don't need anyone feeling sorry for me.

    Fair play to you, hope you feel the same when your neighbour buys an almost identical property for €100,000 less than you paid.


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    #72
    JoeyJJ
    Registered Users Posts: 3,663 ✭✭✭JoeyJJ


    Nikki Sixx wrote: »
    Fair play to you, hope you feel the same when your neighbour buys an almost identical property for €100,000 less than you paid.

    Jaysus relax people..


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    #73
    heebusjeebus
    Registered Users Posts: 3,783 ✭✭✭heebusjeebus


    Nikki Sixx wrote: »
    Fair play to you, hope you feel the same when your neighbour buys an almost identical property for €100,000 less than you paid.

    What a bitter post.


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    #74
    Grumpypants
    Registered Users Posts: 7,753 ✭✭✭Grumpypants


    Nikki Sixx wrote: »
    Fair play to you, hope you feel the same when your neighbour buys an almost identical property for €100,000 less than you paid.

    Loads of houses in my estate went for 100-150k less than we paid. It was great we got lots of new families moving in.

    Someone else's good fortune has only a positive impact on my outlook.


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    #75
    KilOit
    Registered Users Posts: 2,984 ✭✭✭KilOit


    Nikki Sixx wrote: »
    Fair play to you, hope you feel the same when your neighbour buys an almost identical property for €100,000 less than you paid.

    Assuming the banks lend if the market drips that much


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    #76
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,384 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Nikki Sixx wrote: »
    Fair play to you, hope you feel the same when your neighbour buys an almost identical property for €100,000 less than you paid.

    Why would he care? If this is your approach to buying a home you’ll never buy one, there’ll always be someone who gets a better deal than you.

    Chances are the neighbours all around him all paid vastly different amounts for their house.


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    #77
    Wildly Boaring
    Registered Users Posts: 3,629 ✭✭✭Wildly Boaring


    At 1000 a month that's gonna take 8 years.

    I'm sure he'll get over it


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    #78
    SirGerryAdams
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 499 ✭✭SirGerryAdams


    I really don't buy that the CB rules are having the impact NOW. They had an impact years ago I think when government were doing nothing and there was no good news on housing.

    The CB rules were brought in 4 years ago. Why would it take 4 years for it to have an effect?

    It's not like you have a bunch of cash buyers and high earners and once they all buy, there's no more of them. People are constantly getting married, getting increase in wages, deciding to buy.

    Cash buyers are down. I don't think this is because there are none, I reckon they're waiting to see what happens with prices/Brexit/Trump and they definitely won't be flocking back in the current environment.


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    #79
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,021 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    Nikki Sixx wrote: »
    Fair play to you, hope you feel the same when your neighbour buys an almost identical property for €100,000 less than you paid.

    What an absolutely bizarre post. No I won't care at all, because I have a place to live that I'm extremely happy in now, I don't need to worry about renting, I don't need to worry about having to move my kids around from pillar to post. Good luck to whoever gets the house next door for 100k less than me, hope they like it here as much as I do. You seem like a bit of a twat so not sure why I'm replying but there we have it.


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    #80
    OEP
    Registered Users Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭OEP


    SirGerryAdams wrote: »
    I really don't buy that the CB rules are having the impact NOW. They had an impact years ago I think when government were doing nothing and there was no good news on housing.

    The CB rules were brought in 4 years ago. Why would it take 4 years for it to have an effect?

    It's not like you have a bunch of cash buyers and high earners and once they all buy, there's no more of them. People are constantly getting married, getting increase in wages, deciding to buy.

    Cash buyers are down. I don't think this is because there are none, I reckon they're waiting to see what happens with prices/Brexit/Trump and they definitely won't be flocking back in the current environment.

    Because it took 4 years for prices to rise to a point where 3.5 times the salary of the average couple looking for a house is now price of an average 3 bed house in Dublin


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    #81
    sbsquarepants
    Registered Users Posts: 11,812 ✭✭✭✭sbsquarepants


    Nikki Sixx wrote: »
    Fair play to you, hope you feel the same when your neighbour buys an almost identical property for €100,000 less than you paid.

    People pay far too much attention to what their neighbours paid - who gives a rats arse what your neighbour paid.

    When you're buying you look at the price and see if it's realistic for you - that's the only measure that matters.

    Your neighbour could pay double what you do and thinks it's drop in the ocean or they could pay half and struggle to make the payments - neither situation impacts in any way upon you!


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    #82
    DirkVoodoo
    Registered Users Posts: 11,504 ✭✭✭✭DirkVoodoo


    Cal4567 wrote: »
    Everyone needs somewhere to live and if we have to see our home as an investment, it is as a very long term one. You could buy shares, then watch them dip in value, but if you don't need to sell them, you hold onto them until it is right to sell - hopefully with a return.

    Anyone closely following the property market in Dubln over the last year could see this coming. However I am also sure many have been very happy to buy over the last year, if it meant they no longer had to fork out so much in rent.

    This.

    We just bought as our rent had gone from 1800 to 1900 a month. Looking at the same apartments now, equivalents in the same development are going for 2100 a month.

    Sure, maybe we could have waited another 2 or 3 years, sat on our deposit that would be losing value, have been unable to put the same savings away every year as rents increased and hoped that when the market did dip, banks were still willing to give us a mortgage.

    As others have mentioned, most people are buying a house to live in and not a second or third investment property seeking a return, so it becomes a question of "can we bear the mortgage?".

    I can have my dog come live with us. We can decorate. We have a garden we can landscape. All of that was either more difficult or impossible when renting.

    If you can afford to wait it out and purchase in the next dip, that's great and I wish you well, but not everyone is in such a position with the environment we've created.

    EDIT: I'm also not sure why one poster seems to pay particular delight in the (potential) misery of people who have bought in the last year. I hope that such a financial savant won't be wasted on boards alone and is advising economic policy, we need your talents to avoid the next crash.


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    #83
    Franz Von Peppercorn II
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    Nikki Sixx wrote: »
    Fair play to you, hope you feel the same when your neighbour buys an almost identical property for €100,000 less than you paid.

    He probably has neighbours who have bought at that price already, and cheaper. Not that houses will fall by that much, unless its a very high end house.


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    #84
    Looly8726
    Registered Users Posts: 43 ✭Looly8726


    This mentality of what your neighbour paid is bizarre. As someone who bought first in the last recession and also just purchased a bigger house in the last few months I can say with certainty, all that matters is that you can afford the house and that you will enjoy living in it!


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    #85
    Bigmac1euro
    Registered Users Posts: 1,456 ✭✭✭Bigmac1euro


    Interested Observer wrote: »
    What an absolutely bizarre post. No I won't care at all, because I have a place to live that I'm extremely happy in now, I don't need to worry about renting, I don't need to worry about having to move my kids around from pillar to post. Good luck to whoever gets the house next door for 100k less than me, hope they like it here as much as I do. You seem like a bit of a twat so not sure why I'm replying but there we have it.

    Fair play on the recent house purchase. Hoping to buy next year, keeping the head down and ignoring all the nay sayers is the only way to go.


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    #86
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,278 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    A house is somewhere to live- and providing you're happy with you house, it suits your needs and you can afford to live there- then what someone else paid or pays in the future is moot. They're not you, and they are not necessarily getting the utility value associated with the house that you are.

    Looking at the headline price of a property, in isolation of any other factors especially an understanding that the house is for utilising and not an investment, is a weird and perverted way of trying to justify the 'value' associated with a house.

    Value is a concept that a lot of people just don't seem to understand. It is not the headline price associated with a property for example, it is combination of the tangible and intangible benefits that accrue to you as a result of having the use of the house.

    An old Syrian philosopher Publilius Syrus once said- everything is worth what its purchaser is willing to pay for it. That is only half the equation though, as it ignores other options which include using an asset without purchasing it- the ability of which impacts on what someone might be willing to pay to purchase an item.........

    The fact that we now have mainstream media reports stating that prices in Dublin are falling by 1k a month- does not mean there will be a large group of people sitting on the fence to see how low prices might go. If prices are falling 1k per month, but it still costs 2.5k per month to rent one of these units, and the costs of servicing the debt is less than the difference, then from a financial perspective, wholly divorced from any other factors, it still makes sense to buy into the falling market.

    Comments about how people will be bitter that neighbours paid 100k (or whatever amount) less than you did- reflect the complete myopia of someone who is solely looking at the headline price of the property and seems completely incapable of ascribing a value or worth to having the ability to leverage and use that property- as a residence. This myopia is nothing new though, we're all familiar with family members who are asset rich but cash poor- and simply don't care that they're cash poor, they can keep food on the table, the bank manager away from the door and live their lives the way they want to. There is a lot to be said for not having a complete fixation on cash and an ability to appreciate the things that really matter to us.


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    #87
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,281 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    SirGerryAdams wrote: »
    I really don't buy that the CB rules are having the impact NOW. They had an impact years ago I think when government were doing nothing and there was no good news on housing.

    The CB rules were brought in 4 years ago. Why would it take 4 years for it to have an effect?

    It's not like you have a bunch of cash buyers and high earners and once they all buy, there's no more of them. People are constantly getting married, getting increase in wages, deciding to buy.

    Cash buyers are down. I don't think this is because there are none, I reckon they're waiting to see what happens with prices/Brexit/Trump and they definitely won't be flocking back in the current environment.

    Fairly obvious... house prices were at a level where there was still headroom to grow to reach the point where the central bank restrictions exceeded the levels of exceptions that banks themselves could allow.


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    #88
    Lumen
    Registered Users Posts: 31,013 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    lawred2 wrote: »
    Fairly obvious... house prices were at a level where there was still headroom to grow to reach the point where the central bank restrictions exceeded the levels of exceptions that banks themselves could allow.

    It's not quite that simple.

    In a market where there are more potential buyers than sellers, prices can vary even with fixed credit availability, by exclusion.

    So crudely, if there are 5,000 sellers and 50,000 buyers, the prices will be set by what the richest 10% of buyers are willing and able to pay.

    If the supply increases to 10,000 the prices will be set by the richest 20% of buyers, which means that prices will tend to come down, regardless of changes to credit availability.

    Obviously there are other factors like elasticity of supply and demand, credit availabilty, and cash buyers weighing up alternative investments.


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    #89
    SozBbz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,889 ✭✭✭SozBbz


    The_Conductor wrote: »
    A house is somewhere to live- and providing you're happy with you house, it suits your needs and you can afford to live there- then what someone else paid or pays in the future is moot. They're not you, and they are not necessarily getting the utility value associated with the house that you are.

    Exactly this.

    We're sale agreed at the moment. Might we be "overpaying"? Sure, possibly a bit.

    We were up against another bidder and we decided to try one knock out punch offer (asking price) and it worked.

    Our logic is as follows.

    - the house is a one off - its not like one of many in an estate that will come around again.
    - the house works for us now but has huge potential for the future.
    - we'd never need to move again.
    - the back garden is huge for south dublin
    - i inquired about another property a 5 minute walk away. Its a semi whereas the one we're SA on is detached. The semi is a little bigger. The agent was no longer showing it because they had offers in roughly the same bracket we were bidding. This verified for me that even if we're going slightly high, it wasn't by much.
    - we both got the feeling.

    We can easily afford the mortgage - we've chosen not to borrow the max and set our own limits.


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    #90
    stevedublin
    Registered Users Posts: 979 ✭✭✭stevedublin


    JohnnyChimpo wrote: »
    8 months to get mortgage approval? Doubt.

    too long or too short?


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    #91
    OEP
    Registered Users Posts: 1,149 ✭✭✭OEP


    Lumen wrote: »
    It's not quite that simple.

    In a market where there are more potential buyers than sellers, prices can vary even with fixed credit availability, by exclusion.

    So crudely, if there are 5,000 sellers and 50,000 buyers, the prices will be set by what the richest 10% of buyers are willing and able to pay.

    If the supply increases to 10,000 the prices will be set by the richest 20% of buyers, which means that prices will tend to come down, regardless of changes to credit availability.

    Obviously there are other factors like elasticity of supply and demand, credit availabilty, and cash buyers weighing up alternative investments.

    But each seller can realistically only sell to a subset of those buyers, so the price is driven by the richest in that subset. What I mean is, the richest 10% aren't going to be interested in a crap house in a crap area, but the poorest 10% will be - therefore they're the ones driving the price for that seller.


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