Media: House Prices in Dublin falling by EUR1,000 per month

cruizer101

Wanderer78 wrote: »

thank you, and what is the comparison towards other European countries?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

Just a few samples to give idea

Ireland 68.6
Belgium 71.3
France 65
Germany 51.9
Spain 78.2
Portugal 74.9
Romania 96.4 bit of an outlier

Average of those listed is 74 there is 51 in list and includes countries around the world, though definitely a good proportion are first world.

Mad_maxx

chuchuchu wrote: »

So if prices are at their peak now and falling? When do you think it will be a good time to buy, maybe 2021, 2022?

I'd buy this year prior to Brexit, we won't see anything more than a single figure correction, trump won't allow a recession in an election year and our economy is tied to that of the usa

The last crash tells us nothing about the future and is unlikely to ever be repeated again, most property corrections last half as long as the last one we had

Mad_maxx

Nikki Sixx wrote: »

I feel sorry for anybody who bought a house in the last few months, as we have early signs that the arse will fall out of the current housing market.

Nonesense

SozBbz

Nikki Sixx wrote: »

I feel sorry for anybody who bought a house in the last few months, as we have early signs that the arse will fall out of the current housing market.

Go on then, enlighten us.

What are your qualifications to make such statement?

Mad_maxx

dor843088 wrote: »

As someone who bought before the last crash let me tell you it does sting. Watching your biggest investment of your life crash in value like an lead balloon is really scary. Negative equity throws up problems as well like not being able to move house for a decade no matter what . Job offer else where ? More kids ? Bad neighbours move in ? Divorce ? Forget it your stuck. It also affects your net worth for life and can still affect you if youd planned to downsize for retirement. Unless youv lived it youv no idea the carnage and stress it can cause.

It's called the " wealth effect"

Those who see their assets drop sharply in value are less likely to be enthusiastic about spending in other areas

Mad_maxx

Wanderer78 wrote: »

thank you, and what is the comparison towards other European countries?

We are not very different to other European countries, germany is an outlier, not us

Lumen

That ESRI report I linked to here is an amazing piece of work.

It provides deep statistical insights into how much Irish people of various age groups and tenures spend on housing. I reckon it probably ought to be stickied in this forum (not my post, I'm claiming no credit obvs).

Check this out from page 131.



MRTI: mortgage repayment-to-income ratio
RTI-Market Price: rent-to-income for people paying market rents
RTI-Local Authority: rent-to-income for people renting from LAs
HPTI: housing payment-to-income ratio

coolshannagh28

Mad_maxx wrote: »

I'd buy this year prior to Brexit, we won't see anything more than a single figure correction, trump won't allow a recession in an election year and our economy is tied to that of the usa

The last crash tells us nothing about the future and is unlikely to ever be repeated again, most property corrections last half as long as the last one we had

This is a logical assessment , as this is how the cyclical property market works and the EU has forced the govt to take measures to limit the oscillation of the Irish cycle . The only caveat is the fact that interest rates are too low for the stage in the cycle and the ECB and US are about to escalate QE which indicates that the world economy is struggling at a time when the tools to fight a downturn are non existent , unknown unknowns .

Geuze

voluntary wrote: »

Well, it's a simple math.

The average Dublin household income is about 45k (41k in 2015 according to CSO).

LTI at 3.5x income gives around 160k loan, with exception it makes 202k

So an average familiy/household in Dublin is limited to 160k loan, and some averagers are limited to 202k loan.

Incomes are increasing but not as fast as properties, therefore the ceiling had to be found somewhere.

We do have some data for SSBs:

https://www.askaboutmoney.com/threads/23-of-the-value-of-total-ftb-lending-exceeded-the-3-5-lti-limit-only-7-loans-exceeded-90-ltv.209857/#post-1585423

Geuze

Lumen wrote: »

It really isn't simple maths.

As far as I know there is no CSO source of income statistics which answers the question "what is the average income in Dublin of those households who would like to buy a house with a mortgage?".

You'd need to conduct a very specific survey to get that data.

The overall averages have all sorts of irrelevant groups in them, like people who own a house already, people who effectively have a council house for life, young adults who aren't looking to buy, etc etc.

Here is data for FTBs:




https://www.askaboutmoney.com/threads/23-of-the-value-of-total-ftb-lending-exceeded-the-3-5-lti-limit-only-7-loans-exceeded-90-ltv.209857/#post-1585423

elizunia87

Prices calling? For sure not in a price range less than 270k.

I have been looking at this house 2 months ago. It was 235k. Now 245k, the same house.
Check out this property I found using Daft

<snip>

jam_mac_jam

elizunia87 wrote: »

Prices calling? For sure not in a price range less than 270k.

I have been looking at this house 2 months ago. It was 235k. Now 245k, the same house.
Check out this property I found using Daft

<snip>

That is one property? Its an average over all the houses.

Mad_maxx

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

This is a logical assessment , as this is how the cyclical property market works and the EU has forced the govt to take measures to limit the oscillation of the Irish cycle . The only caveat is the fact that interest rates are too low for the stage in the cycle and the ECB and US are about to escalate QE which indicates that the world economy is struggling at a time when the tools to fight a downturn are non existent , unknown unknowns .

The usa and the EU are in different places, the u. S economy is strong, the eurozone economy is constantly weak, the EU economy means little to us, if it did, we would not have recovered, in fact a weak eurozone economy suits us as it means lower borrowing costs