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Media: House Prices in Dublin falling by EUR1,000 per month

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245

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    #32
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 36,138 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    The Central Bank limits are doing exactly what they were supposed to do. This is a great thing.


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    #33
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    seamus wrote: »
    The same lending conditions aren't in place that existed in 2007. We're not seeing banks and pension funds massively overleveraged. We have pension funds acting as REITs, but that's very different to having their investment funds in property portfolios.

    We are not building 70,000 houses a year when the non-speculatory demand is 25,000.
    I agree with all this. Now that prices have stabilised, we need to work on either reducing rents, or making it easier for renters to buy (within the CBI limits).


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    #34
    TheShow
    Registered Users Posts: 1,157 ✭✭✭TheShow


    arctictree wrote: »
    Comparing daft 'sale' prices to the actual PPR in a new estate near me, the PPR price is generally about 10% lower. So it looks like people are not paying the crazy asking prices.

    I wonder is the daft sale price just the actual asking price when it was sold? Seems to be very misleading.

    PPR on a new house will not reflect what the cost of the house actually is, as the cost of a new house includes VAT & also the cost of the site that the house sits on.


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    #35
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    The Central Bank limits are doing exactly what they were supposed to do. This is a great thing.

    Could they just lift them until I sell my house for €700,000 profit? You can put them back on again when I want to buy. Pretty please?

    As that impartial observer, Mark Fitzgerald, observed in the past week, we need to release the 'genius of capitalism':


    Time to ‘shout stop’ on mortgage caps, Sherry FitzGerald chair says. Mark FitzGerald says ‘genius of capitalism’ should be released


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    #36
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,283 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Could they just lift them until I sell my house for €700,000 profit? You can put them back on again when I want to buy. Pretty please?

    As that impartial observer, Mark Fitzgerald, observed in the past week, we need to release the 'genius of capitalism':


    Time to ‘shout stop’ on mortgage caps, Sherry FitzGerald chair says. Mark FitzGerald says ‘genius of capitalism’ should be released

    The only people who want those caps removed either cannot afford the house theyre trying to loophole themselves into buying, are estate agents or are the people still in negative equity that should just swallow that debt like any other investor and shut up.


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    #37
    alwald
    Registered Users Posts: 1,283 ✭✭✭alwald


    hmmm wrote: »
    I agree with all this. Now that prices have stabilised, we need to work on either reducing rents, or making it easier for renters to buy (within the CBI limits).

    You can't reduce rents as the landlord will lose on money which isn't fair unless you have other solutions and making it any easier for anybody to buy will do just the opposite of what was achieved.

    The rules as they are work fine it's a matter of building more affordable housing and improving the commute network.


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    #38
    alwald
    Registered Users Posts: 1,283 ✭✭✭alwald


    Eric Cartman wrote: »
    The only people who want those caps removed either cannot afford the house theyre trying to loophole themselves into buying, are estate agents or are the people still in negative equity that should just swallow that debt like any other investor and shut up.

    I feel sorry for all those who bought their first home during the boom and are in negative equity. They had noway to know what was gonna happen.


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    #39
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,283 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    alwald wrote: »
    I feel sorry for all those who bought their first home during the boom and are in negative equity. They had noway to know what was gonna happen.

    Every person with a basic grasp of economics could have told anyone that just because a bank is offering you 10x your sallary in a mortgage, doesnt mean you should take it. Equally so anyone with any sense could have told you that a 3 bed duplex in portlaoise was never going to be worth 350k

    People are all too ready to blame the corner shop because the alco has pissed himself into debt when you talk about the last boom here.


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    #40
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,384 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    arctictree wrote: »
    Comparing daft 'sale' prices to the actual PPR in a new estate near me, the PPR price is generally about 10% lower. So it looks like people are not paying the crazy asking prices.

    I wonder is the daft sale price just the actual asking price when it was sold? Seems to be very misleading.

    When it comes to new builds there is generally no wiggle room. Unless they are really struggling to sell lots of houses for very long periods they'll just hold out.


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    #41
    chuchuchu
    Registered Users Posts: 519 ✭✭✭chuchuchu


    So if prices are at their peak now and falling? When do you think it will be a good time to buy, maybe 2021, 2022?


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    #42
    dubrov
    Registered Users Posts: 3,549 ✭✭✭dubrov


    Hindsight is great. Most of the economists at the time were suggesting everything was going up further. If lending had gone to 20x salary prices would've doubled again.

    At the end of the day, a few decisions in the ECB decide what money is worth.


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    #43
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    arctictree wrote: »
    Comparing daft 'sale' prices to the actual PPR in a new estate near me, the PPR price is generally about 10% lower. So it looks like people are not paying the crazy asking prices.

    I wonder is the daft sale price just the actual asking price when it was sold? Seems to be very misleading.
    TheShow wrote: »
    PPR on a new house will not reflect what the cost of the house actually is, as the cost of a new house includes VAT & also the cost of the site that the house sits on.

    Why on earth is the PPR not waiting until the final paid price is in before putting any figure on their website? I always assumed that the PPR was the final price paid, and the records for sold houses on DAFT were taken from the PPR.


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    #44
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,384 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Why on earth is the PPR not waiting until the final paid price is in before putting any figure on their website? I always assumed that the PPR was the final price paid, and the records for sold houses on DAFT were taken from the PPR.

    Because you don't pay VAT on second hand homes but you do on new houses, so the PPR has to take this into account and deduct the VAT from new builds to give a normalised price.


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    #45
    Sunrise_Sunset
    Registered Users Posts: 1,211 ✭✭✭Sunrise_Sunset


    chuchuchu wrote: »
    So if prices are at their peak now and falling? When do you think it will be a good time to buy, maybe 2021, 2022?

    It really depends on your situation.
    For my situation now is as good a time as any to buy. I am a second time buyer, property I am selling is still in negative equity after 13 years. If I wait for prices to reduce on the property I want to buy, it will also mean prices will reduce even further on the property I currently own. As it is I have to pay the bank what I owe in negative equity on top of my deposit. I have to make peace with the fact that I may as well buy now.


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    #46
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    awec wrote: »
    Because you don't pay VAT on second hand homes but you do on new houses, so the PPR has to take this into account and deduct the VAT from new builds to give a normalised price.

    But you pay Stamp Duty on a second-hand house and they have to deduct this in a similar way to VAT on a new house surely?


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    #47
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,384 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Deleted User wrote: »
    But you pay Stamp Duty on a second-hand house and they have to deduct this in a similar way to VAT on a new house surely?

    Stamp duty wouldn't be included for either new builds or second hand on the PPR I would have thought. It's not really considered part of the price of the house?

    You pay stamp duty on new builds too btw.


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    #48
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 36,138 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    We're now 12 years on from the height of the property bubble. How long would people want it to inform policy / politics? Eventually those mortgages start reaching their term. They were bad investments, it's more than okay at this stage for them to never come good. And they are exactly why the pressure on the Central Bank needs to be resisted, lest we fire up another batch of them.


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    #49
    SirGerryAdams
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 499 ✭✭SirGerryAdams


    alwald wrote: »
    I feel sorry for all those who bought their first home during the boom and are in negative equity. They had noway to know what was gonna happen.

    Negative equity only matters if you plan on selling.


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    #50
    hmmm
    Registered Users Posts: 11,205 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    awec wrote: »
    When it comes to new builds there is generally no wiggle room. Unless they are really struggling to sell lots of houses for very long periods they'll just hold out.
    Builders aren't going to build if they can't make a profit. The market seems to have found an equilibrium, but we'll very quickly see new build supply fall away if prices take a fall.


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    #51
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    hmmm wrote: »
    Builders aren't going to build if they can't make a profit. The market seems to have found an equilibrium, but we'll very quickly see new build supply fall away if prices take a fall.

    As build costs escalate , supply will rapidly diminish if prices even stagnate.


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    #52
    4ensic15
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,691 ✭✭✭4ensic15


    dubrov wrote: »
    Hindsight is great. Most of the economists at the time were suggesting everything was going up further. If lending had gone to 20x salary prices would've doubled again.

    At the end of the day, a few decisions in the ECB decide what money is worth.

    Most economists? Those who were being paid for their opinion. Quite a number were saying it was madness. The ECB move was inevitable at some stage and the consequences were inevitable. The property market has been cyclical for centuries. It is ineviatble that there will be risies and falls and the higher they rise the harder they fall.


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    #53
    Franz Von Peppercorn II
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    coolshannagh28 wrote: »
    As build costs escalate , supply will rapidly diminish if prices even stagnate.

    Why would costs escalate?


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    #54
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »
    Why would costs escalate?

    https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2019/0116/1023551-health-committee-childrens-hospital/

    Building costs are only going one way at the minute.


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    #55
    Franz Von Peppercorn II
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    coolshannagh28 wrote: »
    https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2019/0116/1023551-health-committee-childrens-hospital/

    Building costs are only going one way at the minute.

    Thats one badly managed project. If the market cools so will labour costs.


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    #56
    Wildly Boaring
    Registered Users Posts: 3,629 ✭✭✭Wildly Boaring


    There has been massive speculation on zoned land in this country for 30 years at least.

    Perhaps if house prices stabilised and cost of building stabilised or even grew then the land price would be forced down to make building profitable.

    Land hoarding would become untenable.
    Another good thing?


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    #57
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »
    Thats one badly managed project. If the market cools so will labour costs.

    Hopefully; the stability of the market is based on momentum ie increasing prices ,increasing wages , increasing profits throughout the chain , confidence can rapidly drain away , the mortgage caps are a roadblock, Brexit is also a factor and a stalled market can be hard to restart . The government is trying to engineer a soft landing or equilibrium but can it hold ?


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    #58
    Lumen
    Registered Users Posts: 31,013 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    coolshannagh28 wrote: »
    The government is trying to engineer a soft landing or equilibrium but can it hold ?
    Where is the evidence that they are trying to do this? What actions have they taken?


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    #59
    Interested Observer
    Registered Users Posts: 13,021 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer


    arctictree wrote: »
    Comparing daft 'sale' prices to the actual PPR in a new estate near me, the PPR price is generally about 10% lower. So it looks like people are not paying the crazy asking prices.

    I wonder is the daft sale price just the actual asking price when it was sold? Seems to be very misleading.

    The PPR doesn't include VAT on new builds.
    awec wrote: »
    Stamp duty wouldn't be included for either new builds or second hand on the PPR I would have thought. It's not really considered part of the price of the house?

    You pay stamp duty on new builds too btw.

    Yes there's no Stamp Duty included on the PPR. I know because the house I bought recently appeared on it. It's just the sale agreed price, house is not new.


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    #60
    Nikki Sixx
    Closed Accounts Posts: 426 ✭✭Nikki Sixx


    2nd hand houses are falling out of favour. Young people buying houses are buying the A rated new houses, over the rundown old houses. It’s hard to blame them really, especially when the government will be pushing people to upgrade older houses in the coming years.


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    #61
    Franz Von Peppercorn II
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,398 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn II


    coolshannagh28 wrote: »
    Hopefully; the stability of the market is based on momentum ie increasing prices ,increasing wages , increasing profits throughout the chain , confidence can rapidly drain away , the mortgage caps are a roadblock, Brexit is also a factor and a stalled market can be hard to restart . The government is trying to engineer a soft landing or equilibrium but can it hold ?

    Why would the stability of any market depend on runaway costs? Would you listen to yourself.

    Brexit is a factor but its a totally different argumentt.


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