Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Cal4567 wrote: »

Interesting observation from one of David Cameron's old team in Newsnight last night. They expected, I guess back in 2016, that they would be able to pick up individual EU members one by one in a series of negotiations. As we know now, that didn't happen, and for the most part EU members have stayed united.

Tories have driven themselves clearly now into a cul-de-sac, the entrance to which is now also blocked from exiting.

Near half a century of membership and the British political system seems to have little idea of how the EU functions.

First Up wrote: »

That's not victory; its a series of lame excuses. Meanwhile the UK economy stagnates, businesses close, jobs are lost and investment goes elsewhere.

This isn't a game and nobody in the EU gives a tuppeny sh*t who the UK "blames".

The government's and PM's responsibility is to look after the interests of the citizens, not "win" a debate.

Brexit marks the start, not the end.

To you and me (and probably any sane person looking at the whole thing) - yes, absolutely, it's not a victory. But to the UK home market that's exactly what it will be, and this leadership race seems to be just a big competition that must be won, that HAS to be won, by the absolutely most wonderful Tory. So of course they're all vying for their chance.

All this bluster that they're coming out with isn't going to be "found out" to be the load of nonsense that is in their home turf in the UK, they're going to be the wonderful, democratic ideas that were quashed by the horrible, intrasigent EU who wanted to punish the UK, aided on by those bloody Irish who ought to know their place in the world.

We're being warmed up nicely as the scapegoat for when it (inevitably) goes horribly wrong and whether we care or not (we probably won't), we'll be the sole reason in the minds of Brexiteers as to why their lovely plans fell apart, not because it was an unrealistic attempt at action that had absolutely no plan, logic or reason to have ever been brought to the voting public in the first place.

54&56 wrote: »

The adult in me however acknowledges the economic and social pain a no deal Brexit would cause to so many including friends and family of mine here and in the UK so let's hope BoJo and co see sense once they are off the fence and faced with making some tough decisions.

Somehow this brings to mind the Russian proverb - 'wish in one hand, $hit in the other, see which fills up first'.

They deserve each other. Leave them to it.

Christy42 wrote: »

They sit and suffer and grumble about foreigners while Johnson comes out popular as he is seen battling for them. This is about what is best for Boris. Others are unimportant aside from that they should keep a good view of Boris.

Let's be honest. Boris is no idiot. The man has likely limited his own exposure to the UK economy so he won't be hurt.

I think Boris is a naïve bumbling blustering idiot masquerading as a highly intelligent man who happens to be masquerading as an idiot.
I mean telling the EU to go whistle for the £39 million. Easy cannon fodder for the likes of Barnier, who quipped "I’m not hearing any whistling, just the clock ticking". Its will be like a cat toying with a cornered mouse.
I am quite looking forward for the forthcoming Johnson car crash from a purely comedic point of view. Boy do we need a few chuckles at this stage.:)

First Up wrote: »

That's grand so. When the UK economy flatlines, sterling drops, prices rise, shops run out and the jobless numbers increase, UK voters can express their anger how exactly?

They can "blame" who they like but which EU politicians and officials will they be voting out of office?

I'm not arguing with you, I'm agreeing with you

My original post was in response to a question asking why anyone would want to go for the Tory leadership. It's for those reasons I've outlined in the last two posts.

Their leadership have managed to position themselves as virtually untouchable - every single bad thing that happens is now entirely the EU's (and Ireland's) fault. Dragging up contender's history is Remainer bias. EU not re-opening the withdrawal agreement is being intrasigent. Not backing down on the backstop is bullying. Not agreeing a FTA is EU punishment for Britain leaving. Big bad EU bullying the brave PM.

The UK is so far removed from reality but the soon-to-be-real harsh realities of Brexit are not going to suddenly bring them back down to earth and have all the bluster called out for what it is. It's just going to turn EU-hatred up even higher.

We all know Johnson isn't going to get any of the things he's blustering about - the EU have said many times as much.
But believe me, he'll be over to Brussels and will blame them for not being there, then blame them for not re-opening the agreement, then blame them for having to seek an extension (and blame them if they decline), or if he decides to go No Deal will blame them for the economic crash that quickly ensues.

Again - who wouldn't want such a position of power with virtual immunity?

Russman wrote:

Given the seemingly inevitable car crash that will ensue with a no-deal, surely the PM that brings this about will be toast, no ? I wonder are the other contenders somewhat taking a "dive" to let Boris have it, knowing he won't last too long and essentially getting him out of the way.

Very likely.

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It also would have required, imo, much greater capability within the British Civil Service. The indications are that they are not on the EU’s level in terms of negotiation and everything that surrounds it. Boris Johnson being at the helm won’t change that.

Well part of the problem was ignoring what the competent people (i.e. in the civil service) were saying.

fash wrote: »

Well part of the problem was ignoring what the competent people (i.e. in the civil service) were saying.

Yes, this in a nutshell. The civil service has been banging the drum about Brexit being a bad idea from the start. They have not only been ignored by the likes of JRM has called them as actively working against the state!

When they put out forecasts, as the chancellor has done, they are rubbished as biased and false.

As to their dealings with the EU, I personally think the deal that TM achieved was about as good as they could have hoped for (and it was more than I thought they should give). So from that POV I think the civil service did quite a good job.

The fly in the ointment was people like Raab who, according to certain reports, was totally out of his depth and TM who couldn't decide what she wanted and when she got it told everyone she hated it.

Laois_Man wrote: »

The Brexit Party have arrived in Brussels. These are the people who will be asking the EU to be more generous to them

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1141275808310419456

It wouldn't be out of place in a "Carry-on..." movie!

It's a full on propaganda assault... elites in fancy cars carrying on in secret behind closed doors...

Beth rigby reporting Gove lunching with Stewart

trellheim wrote: »

Huff post reporting DUP will pull the plug if Stewart gets in https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/exclusive-dup-could-pull-the-plug-on-a-rory-stewart-led-tory-government_uk_5d0a21f9e4b0e560b70c3181?utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

Gavin Williamson who has been the Johnson enforcer and has played a huge role in the amount of MPS that have backed him from various elements of the party is very close to the DUP. That story has him written all over it.

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1141278499803672576

Also...

To be expected. Boris obviously going to backtrack with Raab out and the race over and despite what he may say he knows the Brexit that the likes of Steve Baker want would terrible for the UK.

I found this blog/website informative on the various Brexit trade issues.
https://www.explaintrade.com/

Not sure who is running it but it should be required reading for Brexit slow learners.