Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

54and56 · 18-06-2019 09:46PM

Buer wrote: »

the moment where the member of the public openly criticised him specifically was a hammer blow. Shame as he is the only one approaching reality.

I agree, when i heard that comeback comment by the questioner, which was the only time a questioner directly criticised a candidate, felt like a hammer blow but also felt a little pre determined or staged almost.

S.M.B. · 18-06-2019 09:47PM

Buer wrote: »

Nah, he'll go out because he made a balls of tonight. Body language was terrible, other candidates negated him easily and the moment where the member of the public openly criticised him specifically was a hammer blow. Shame as he is the only one approaching reality.

He's got a real issue with his body language, it was really noticeable when I saw him debate before, pulling faces as members of the public respond to his points

Tonight he was caught possibly randomly falling off his chair and petulantly throwing his eyes up to the sky while others were talking.

Really doesn't come across well.

Joe_ Public · 18-06-2019 09:49PM

I hope they're still filming Guy Verhofstadt and his team as they watched that debate tonight and we'll get another updated episode of the documentary. How they must have p"ssed themselves laughing at it, the man who is going to become the new PM, who couldnt even get his facts right tonight and mumbled and stumbled his way through the hour, is somehow going to convince the EU to reopen the WA and move the backstop into the political declaration. I can hear the laughter from brussels from here!

Professor Moriarty · 18-06-2019 09:57PM

What was interesting is how Johnson emphasised that Britain must leave by the 31st. Yet, when repeatedly pressed by Maitlis, he refused to guarantee to leave by the 31st.

Dante7 · 18-06-2019 09:58PM

54&56 wrote: »

I agree, when i heard that comeback comment by the questioner, which was the only time a questioner directly criticised a candidate, felt like a hammer blow but also felt a little pre determined or staged almost.

That member of the public was always going to criticise Stewart regardless of what answer he gave.

Buer · 18-06-2019 09:59PM

54&56 wrote:

I agree, when i heard that comeback comment by the questioner, which was the only time a questioner directly criticised a candidate, felt like a hammer blow but also felt a little pre determined or staged almost.

Stewart should have been smarter though. He openly stated that he had voted for the Brexit Party. That should have been enough for Stewart to identify trouble and play it with a straight bat. Instead, he came back immediately to Brexit.

The follow up programme on BBC News interviewed the questioner. He's obviously a fairly hard line Brexit supporter and Stewart was never going to get a fair shake from him. He took pleasure in bringing up his rebuke to Stewart. He said Stewart was trying to criticise him for voting Brexit by stating that was the reason there woukd be no tax cuts. Of course, Stewart was completely prudent to point that out but in those circumstances, it gained him no favour.

Buer · 18-06-2019 10:04PM

Aidric wrote:

That's a bit harsh. He was defeated by the restrictive format. The debate was dominated by the participants shouting over each other due to the clock.

I don't think so. The body language was atrocious. He looked like a sulky teenager being forced to go to mass.

He's the outside bet. He had two or three clear runs at talking without interruption. In his position he had to either land a body blow on someone or use his time to really connect with the public on a big issue. He did neither. Essentially, people will take two things from what he said.... that Britain needs to accept a deal with the EU if they want Brexit and that there will be no tax cuts.

Prudent and realistic but about as welcome to hear as a fart in a space suit.

Junkyard Tom · 18-06-2019 10:11PM

What's the rationale for seeking to be Tory leader, and UK PM, while HMS Britannia is still on a direct course to slam into the Brexit iceberg?

Professor Moriarty · 18-06-2019 10:14PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

What's the rationale for seeking to be Tory leader, and UK PM, while HMS Britannia is still on a direct course to slam into the Brexit iceberg?

Becoming Prime Minister is more important than anything else.

Dante7 · 18-06-2019 10:14PM

I wonder is Stewart purposely scuppering his own campaign? As has been mentioned, he is not really fighting to win this campaign but rather the next one. He went from 28/1 a couple of weeks ago to second favourite at 7/1 today. He went back out to 10/1 after the debate. I don't think he really wants this poisened chalice.

Akrasia · 18-06-2019 10:16PM

Buer wrote: »

I don't think so. The body language was atrocious. He looked like a sulky teenager being forced to go to mass.

He's the outside bet. He had two or three clear runs at talking without interruption. In his position he had to either land a body blow on someone or use his time to really connect with the public on a big issue. He did neither. Essentially, people will take two things from what he said.... that Britain needs to accept a deal with the EU if they want Brexit and that there will be no tax cuts.

Prudent and realistic but about as welcome to hear as a fart in a space suit.

He asked them all how they would get a no deal through if parliament opposes it. Johnson completely ignored him and then nobody mentioned it ever again. Awful debate, terrible moderating, and the massive issue of the day, basically the only issue in this contest gets only half of the time with the rest filled with inane election promises that absolutely nobody thinks any of the candidates are serious about delivering

Junkyard Tom · 18-06-2019 10:17PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Becoming Prime Minister is more important than anything else.

Blind ambition writ large.

KildareP · 18-06-2019 10:24PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

What's the rationale for seeking to be Tory leader, and UK PM, while HMS Britannia is still on a direct course to slam into the Brexit iceberg?

It won't matter. Assume Johnson is going to win.
Johnson is going to the EU.
Johnson will *make* the EU change the WA.

Outcome (1)
Johnson will say, oh, look, that lazy good for nothing EU aren't even here to negotiate, look how lazy they are, its all their fault now we are going to crash out! Every negative thing that happens thereon in is 100% the EU/ROI fault.

Outcome (2)
Johnson will ask for an extension because the bullies in the EU won't agree because they are punishing the UK, oh, and the lazy parliament wasn't even here until Nov 1st anyway whixh delayed us! The delay is 100% the EU/ROI fault.

Outcome (3)
Johnson will be told to "get stuffed" by the EU. UK crashes out. EU/ROI are rude bullies. Every negative thing that happens thereon in is 100% the EU/ROI fault.

Outcome (4)
Johnson revokes under pressure from the bullying EU/ROI. Brexit being cancelled is 100% the EU/ROI fault.

Outcome (5)
UK calls the EU bluff. EU doesn't blink. Crash out by default. It is 100% the EU/ROI fault because they were intrasigent.

It's a victory for which you are utterly invincible. Who wouldn't want it!

hard copy · 18-06-2019 10:25PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

What's the rationale for seeking to be Tory leader, and UK PM, while HMS Britannia is still on a direct course to slam into the Brexit iceberg?

I suspect they suspect this will be the last time there is a Tory prime minister for a very long time so they're thinking f*ck it might as well

FrancieBrady · 18-06-2019 10:45PM

Stewart criticising others for using the 'Britain is great' (can't remember the exact phrase) but then indulging in the same platitudes himself at the end.

j8wk2feszrnpao · 18-06-2019 11:02PM

Akrasia wrote: »

He asked them all how they would get a no deal through if parliament opposes it. Johnson completely ignored him and then nobody mentioned it ever again. Awful debate, terrible moderating, and the massive issue of the day, basically the only issue in this contest gets only half of the time with the rest filled with inane election promises that absolutely nobody thinks any of the candidates are serious about delivering

Sadly, a recurring theme throughout the entire Brexit conversation within the media.

54and56 · 18-06-2019 11:10PM

The problem with BoJo and Javid making 31st Oct a hard deadline is that it isn't and no matter how much you pretend it's an actual hard deadline it isn't. There are options to move it back and as long as those options exist pretending it's a hard deadline won't convince anyone, least of all the EU.

bilston · 18-06-2019 11:12PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

What was interesting is how Johnson emphasised that Britain must leave by the 31st. Yet, when repeatedly pressed by Maitlis, he refused to guarantee to leave by the 31st.

He tries to be all things to all men.

When push comes to shove I don't think he'll take Britain out on 31st October. Actually I've come to the conclusion that the only person likely to force Britain out of the EU on 31st October is Emanuel Macron. He could veto any extension and then the UK will be gone.

It crossed my mind that this weekend will see the 3rd anniversary of the referendum. At what point does the referendum become null and void? If the UK doesn't leave in October (and I'm less certain that Britain will leave in October) and it goes into 2020 we will be approaching 4 years since the referendum. In that scenario if I was someone aged 18-22 (over 3 million people) I'd be pretty pissed off that I wouldn't have had a say in the mess.

devnull · 18-06-2019 11:12PM

54&56 wrote: »

The problem with BoJo and Javid making 31st Oct a hard deadline is that it isn't and no matter how much you pretend it's an actual hard deadline it isn't. There are options to move it back and as long as those options exist pretending it's a hard deadline won't convince anyone, least of all the EU.

They're making the same mistakes as Theresa May, making many promises and commitments and red lines that they'll get stuck in later on strangled in them.

Professor Moriarty · 18-06-2019 11:26PM

bilston wrote: »

He tries to be all things to all men.

When push comes to shove I don't think he'll take Britain out on 31st October. Actually I've come to the conclusion that the only person likely to force Britain out of the EU on 31st October is Emanuel Macron. He could veto any extension and then the UK will be gone.

It crossed my mind that this weekend will see the 3rd anniversary of the referendum. At what point does the referendum become null and void? If the UK doesn't leave in October (and I'm less certain that Britain will leave in October) and it goes into 2020 we will be approaching 4 years since the referendum. In that scenario if I was someone aged 18-22 (over 3 million people) I'd be pretty pissed off that I wouldn't have had a say in the mess.

It's incredible to think it's three years as you say. I think Macron will huff and puff but a conditional extension will be granted. Essentially, there are only two options - an extension or crash out. There isn't time to renegotiate a deal that the EU won't renegoitiate anyway. May's deal is dead and revoke won't happen. So Johnson will threaten and bluster until mid October and then he will capitulate having been advised of the realities of a No Deal Brexit.

The can will go rattling down the road and the Brexiteers will rant and rave. Regarding your 18-22 year olds, the demographic clock will keep on ticking. Younger and more pro EU voters will come on stream and elderly Brexiteers will continue to die off until a GE comes round. All hell will then break loose.

Laois_Man · 19-06-2019 12:07AM

I know there are a lot of over-used soundbites made my Brexiteers...."GATT24", "The EU need us more than we need them", "Alternative arrangements", "The one we need to talk to is Merkel", "The Irish border is a non-issue dreamed up to twart us"...etc etc etc

But nobody has mentioned Sajid Javid point tonight, and it's rarely criticized, that the backstop is illegal in the terms of the EU's own article 50. It has been constantly shown that it isn't!

BobbyBobberson · 19-06-2019 12:22AM

Have not posted on here in ages and I missed the "debate" tonight.

Boris will be made PM, head to Brussels, hit a wall, they will call his bluff and he will come back with his tail between his legs. Cue ERG members "Boris was never fully Brexit" and "Sure he wrote two columns about which side to back in the ref" and we revisit all this again in six months time.

Boris is so flip flop that is really says something about the UK that he is about to made PM. The guy has already changed his mind on his tax policy he suggested last week. One wet week into his PM bid and he has backed down on his main domestic policy. Unreal

Rjd2 · 19-06-2019 02:29AM

Dante7 wrote: »

I wonder is Stewart purposely scuppering his own campaign? As has been mentioned, he is not really fighting to win this campaign but rather the next one. He went from 28/1 a couple of weeks ago to second favourite at 7/1 today. He went back out to 10/1 after the debate. I don't think he really wants this poisened chalice.

A Tory not wanting to be PM? :P

I think he struggled with the format which he has admitted. His body language at times was poor. It should not matter as its superficial bollocks, but this stuff is absolutely basic and has always been. I understand that some of the drivel spouted would be infuriating, but still needs to learn how to play the game better.

I expect Boris will fail when he becomes PM....the issue for Stewart is I don't see the demographics of the members changing drastically over the year year or two. Heck it's more likely some younger more hardcore leaver like Raab will have a go next as he always believed in brexit blah blah.

20silkcut · 19-06-2019 06:06AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's incredible to think it's three years as you say. I think Macron will huff and puff but a conditional extension will be granted. Essentially, there are only two options - an extension or crash out. There isn't time to renegotiate a deal that the EU won't renegoitiate anyway. May's deal is dead and revoke won't happen. So Johnson will threaten and bluster until mid October and then he will capitulate having been advised of the realities of a No Deal Brexit.

The can will go rattling down the road and the Brexiteers will rant and rave. Regarding your 18-22 year olds, the demographic clock will keep on ticking. Younger and more pro EU voters will come on stream and elderly Brexiteers will continue to die off until a GE comes round. All hell will then break loose.

At some stage in the process the million plus people who took to the streets in March will surely appear again. If Boris is ramming through a no deal I wouldn’t be surprised to see scenes in central London similar to Hong Kong at the minute.
He’d have to kick the can down the road in such a scenario. I’d imagine it would be easier keep hard brexiteers off the streets by extending/revoke/ vaguely promising to renegotiate etc than keep growing numbers of remainers off the streets in a hard chaotic Brexit.

It is hard to Imagine mass protests on the street to force your country into a worse deal than it currently has. Although farage will try and whip up a storm . In the history of protesting it would be the weakest most underwhelming backward thinking cause in history. In my opinion Hard brexiteers are too scattered across the social strata and too scattered geographically across the country. Hardcore remainers are more likely in large clusters in the big urban centres, ideally located for mass street protesting. These are the people who will see the net loss of Brexit.
Surely human nature will kick in and the material loss to the people in a hard brexit will be realized.

First Up · 19-06-2019 07:13AM

KildareP wrote:

It's a victory for which you are utterly invincible. Who wouldn't want it!

That's not victory; its a series of lame excuses. Meanwhile the UK economy stagnates, businesses close, jobs are lost and investment goes elsewhere.

This isn't a game and nobody in the EU gives a tuppeny sh*t who the UK "blames".

The government's and PM's responsibility is to look after the interests of the citizens, not "win" a debate.

Brexit marks the start, not the end.

murphaph · 19-06-2019 07:55AM

20silkcut wrote: »

At some stage in the process the million plus people who took to the streets in March will surely appear again. If Boris is ramming through a no deal I wouldn’t be surprised to see scenes in central London similar to Hong Kong at the minute.
He’d have to kick the can down the road in such a scenario. I’d imagine it would be easier keep hard brexiteers off the streets by extending/revoke/ vaguely promising to renegotiate etc than keep growing numbers of remainers off the streets in a hard chaotic Brexit.

It is hard to Imagine mass protests on the street to force your country into a worse deal than it currently has. Although farage will try and whip up a storm . In the history of protesting it would be the weakest most underwhelming backward thinking cause in history. In my opinion Hard brexiteers are too scattered across the social strata and too scattered geographically across the country. Hardcore remainers are more likely in large clusters in the big urban centres, ideally located for mass street protesting. These are the people who will see the net loss of Brexit.
Surely human nature will kick in and the material loss to the people in a hard brexit will be realized.

I'm afraid a lot, perhaps even the majority of remain voters don't really appreciate just how integrated the UK economy is with the rest of the EU. They know it'll be worse, but don't realise just how much worse. I think very few Brits really understand the gravity of no deal. In Ireland we have a completely different perspective on how important the EU is for our material well being.

Cal4567 · 19-06-2019 08:18AM

Interesting observation from one of David Cameron's old team in Newsnight last night. They expected, I guess back in 2016, that they would be able to pick up individual EU members one by one in a series of negotiations. As we know now, that didn't happen, and for the most part EU members have stayed united.

Tories have driven themselves clearly now into a cul-de-sac, the entrance to which is now also blocked from exiting.

Cal4567 · 19-06-2019 08:24AM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Have not posted on here in ages and I missed the "debate" tonight.

Boris will be made PM, head to Brussels, hit a wall, they will call his bluff and he will come back with his tail between his legs. Cue ERG members "Boris was never fully Brexit" and "Sure he wrote two columns about which side to back in the ref" and we revisit all this again in six months time.

Boris is so flip flop that is really says something about the UK that he is about to made PM. The guy has already changed his mind on his tax policy he suggested last week. One wet week into his PM bid and he has backed down on his main domestic policy. Unreal

Thought he was poor last night. Not sure what he wants, apart from of course becoming PM. Can't help but think though he is taking on a poisoned chalice.

No way is he going to be able to meet the demands and expectations of all those currrently backing him either. He's going to have to be very clever to avoid the knives being turned on him.

LuckyLloyd · 19-06-2019 08:28AM

Cal4567 wrote: »

Interesting observation from one of David Cameron's old team in Newsnight last night. They expected, I guess back in 2016, that they would be able to pick up individual EU members one by one in a series of negotiations. As we know now, that didn't happen, and for the most part EU members have stayed united.

Tories have driven themselves clearly now into a cul-de-sac, the entrance to which is now also blocked from exiting.

I think that observation has been made many times, and is accurate. The strategy, such as there was one, was to divide and conquer via bilateral diplomacy. That they thought they could do this is related to them fundamentally underestimating the competence and health of the EU. Which would go hand in hand with being Brexity to begin with.

It also would have required, imo, much greater capability within the British Civil Service. The indications are that they are not on the EU’s level in terms of negotiation and everything that surrounds it. Boris Johnson being at the helm won’t change that.

10000maniacs · 19-06-2019 08:32AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Pretty sure Johnson tripped himself up on the old GATT 24 banana skin there but think everybody was so bored by that stage they barely noticed.

I mentioned it although yes it was boring. I think Stewart was going to challenge him on it but was shouted down by everybody.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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