Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty · 08-06-2019 05:17PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Leadsom smoked cannabis in the past, which makes her as radical as Brian Cowen:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andrea-leadsom-cannabis-weed-drugs-michael-gove-cocaine-tory-leadership-a8950276.html

Tory cabinet members taking drugs would explain a lot.

Calina · 08-06-2019 05:21PM

Cal4567 wrote: »

BBC, Channel 4 and on-line The Guardian and Telegraph. All these give me a wide enough perspective to allow me then to form my own view coupled with my on the ground day to day experience. Politically, I wouldn't have any time for Boris Johnson and as for the Brexit Party, like UKIP they are one trick pones with just the single focus, Brexit.

My analysis would take into account a more global focus as well. Not just Europe.

All your news sources are UK based. I also read from Spain, Luxembourg, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece and Finland.

And NYT. And Australia.

Your focus is far from global. Mine is too.

Zubeneschamali · 08-06-2019 05:28PM

Calina wrote: »

Your focus is far from global. Mine is too.

I think the "global focus" is the nonsensical idea that the UK will gain more from trading with the 3rd world than it loses from barriers to trade with France, 20 miles away.

Leroy42 · 08-06-2019 05:33PM

And here is Leadsom admitting that people are going to lose their jobs because of Brexit.

But sure that is what the people voted for and she wants to be PM so she can make sure it happens.

https://twitter.com/pickledpuffin/status/1137291870827089922?s=19

Capt'n Midnight · 08-06-2019 06:51PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think the "global focus" is the nonsensical idea that the UK will gain more from trading with the 3rd world than it loses from barriers to trade with France, 20 miles away.

There was a lot of guff a while back about how most of the global growth would be outside the EU in the new economies.

IIRC 80-90% of that growth would be covered by India and China.

India wants visas. Lot and lots of them.

The UK shafted the EU steel industry by vetoing a ban on Chinese steel dumping all so that UK families could save a fiver year on cheap Chinese shoes. Japan jumped at the chance of doing a deal with the EU when Trump trashed the trans pacific partnership, precisely to avoid having to do a deal with China.

Or look at how UK exports to the developing world have changed since the Sterling devaluation made them more affordable. They haven't gone up. So what makes anyone think they'd go up because of some unspecified Brexit Magic ?

Capt'n Midnight · 08-06-2019 08:03PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Michael Gove says he took cocaine. This is problematic. I've never taken cocaine so is Michael Gove cooler than me?

This is so embarrassing now. In order to differentiate themselves half the field has admitted to taking drugs.
"What's the naughtiest thing you've ever done?"

Tory membership ain't going to like that.

At lest Rory could claim to be in a position where it would be immodest or impolite to refuse.

Boris didn't inhale

"I tried it at university and I remember it vividly. And it achieved no pharmacological, psychotropic or any other effect on me whatsoever."

"I think I was once given cocaine but I sneezed and so it did not go up my nose. In fact, I may have been doing icing sugar," he said.
...
On cannabis he said: "There was a period before university when I had quite a few (cannabis joints). It was jolly nice. But apparently it is very different these days. Much stronger.

Igotadose · 08-06-2019 08:14PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

This is so embarrassing now. In order to differentiate themselves half the field has admitted to taking drugs.
"What's the naughtiest thing you've ever done?"

Tory membership ain't going to like that.

At lest Rory could claim to be in a position where it would be immodest or impolite to refuse.

Boris didn't inhale

Ahh. I've got Brexit sorted. Make it compulsory that the next PM and all his/her cabinet members begin each meeting with some major spliffing, perhaps the occasional Chequers meeting where they drop acid. Then, they can be convinced they've exited the EU, without actually having done anything. If the hardcore Leavers aren't convinced, dope them up as well. Problem solved. Perhaps increase the fluoride level in the water supplies in the UK to pacify the populace while they're at it.

An Ciarraioch · 08-06-2019 10:05PM

Sajid Javid now wants to fob us off with £500m to solve the Border:

http://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1137456686501904384

Spanish Eyes · 08-06-2019 10:11PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Sajid Javid now wants to fob us off with £500m to solve the Border:

http://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1137456686501904384

It is getting more and more bizarre. There is a song about that somewhere deep in my memory.

I do hope the threads on Brexit here will be archived for future historians.

A Dub in Glasgo · 08-06-2019 10:13PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Sajid Javid now wants to fob us off with £500m to solve the Border:

http://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1137456686501904384

Kiss of death there for Javid with Ruth 'I will just shout, have no policies and flip flop' Davidson

Water John · 08-06-2019 10:23PM

They gave the DUP £1Bn, so he thinks we'll settle for half that?

Anteayer · 08-06-2019 10:26PM

500m in compensation would also be chickenfeed compared to the cost of disruption and mitigation.

Obviously money won't solve the situation, but that's not even realistic money.

Clearly budgets and cost estimates aren't a strong point in the Tories.

Sam Russell · 08-06-2019 10:38PM

It is not the money, it is the border. If they put the border in the Irish Sea, it solves the problem.

If we get a United Ireland, that also solves the problem, and that is where a healthy contribution might help a great deal.

Spanish Eyes · 08-06-2019 10:50PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

It is not the money, it is the border. If they put the border in the Irish Sea, it solves the problem.

If we get a United Ireland, that also solves the problem, and that is where a healthy contribution might help a great deal.

500m is just chicken feed, but maybe it's an opening gambit.

Cannot see DUP accepting anything like a UI, or a border in the Irish Sea, or any contribution to the border issue either. So if they bail out, what happens then to the new PM?

Laois_Man · 08-06-2019 11:13PM

£500m?

Considering the no-deal Brexit will see them pocketing 78 times that amount, according to Boris, it's a bit maingy!

Water John · 08-06-2019 11:32PM

I think Boris art says he'd withhold £30Bn until EU renegotiated a fresh deal. Headline is a bit misleading, (nothing unusual in that).

Laois_Man · 09-06-2019 12:22AM

Water John wrote: »

I think Boris art says he'd withhold £30Bn until EU renegotiated a fresh deal. Headline is a bit misleading, (nothing unusual in that).

Oh I know - It was tongue & cheek about the £500m

There's plenty to laugh at in that article other than the headline - also the sub-headline.....Johnson breaks silence.....how long was he silent for? 3.5 seconds?

And the bit about refusing to deal with the N. Ireland border until after the future relationship is sorted. What Boris.....you said Jump.....oh how high Boris??

Put it on the side of a big red bus Boris!

Funniest of all is what it DOESN'T say...for example, the rating agencies who have already said the UK's credit rating is immediately getting downgraded if they exit still saying they won't pay what the owe!

Enzokk · 09-06-2019 08:50AM

I think he is setting the country up for accepting May's deal, with a few caveats that will mean nothing. He wants to withhold the £39bn for better terms, not specifying what that is. It could just be that there will be further discussions about letting the UK have a say in EU regulations and trade talks without being in the EU. That is better than they have right now, but it is meaningless.

Then on the Irish backstop he wants that to be sorted by the trade talks, which is exactly what will happen currently. It is only when the trade talks doesn't finish in time for the end of transition period that it kicks in. He will be able to sell it as a win if the EU comes out and says the border will be shaped by the future trade talks, but...

Nope, I was trying to see how this ends for him and either way he runs into the same wall as May. Either he demands the backstop is dropped to keep the DUP on board (for the UK to have their own trade deals), or he agrees to an Irish Sea border in which case he loses the DUP and thus loses the ability to govern in the House of Commons.

The only difference is his whole leadership bid to the membership is sold as being the tough guy and when the time will come for that to be paid he will be forced to either back down and look weak or double down and bring down the government and his own party. In some freakish way it is fascinating to see what will happen over the summer and what the result will be.

Headshot · 09-06-2019 10:27AM

Wow Ester Mc Vey is really bat **** crazy

Just listening to her on Andrew Mar.

I think she makes Boris look actually competent

Inquitus · 09-06-2019 12:34PM

Headshot wrote: »

Wow Ester Mc Vey is really bat **** crazy

Just listening to her on Andrew Mar.

I think she makes Boris look actually competent

It's a contest of who can be the most crazy. Brexit is gonna be a ****show now I think, May was the last bastion between common sense and WTO

09-06-2019 12:42PM

https://www.rte.ie/news/uk/2019/0609/1054313-conservative-leadership-uk/
British Conservative leadership hopeful Jeremy Hunt has said Angela Merkel told him the European Union "would be willing to negotiate" on the Brexit deal with a new prime minister.

The Foreign Secretary claimed the German Chancellor said Brussels "would look at any solutions" the UK puts forward to solve the Northern Irish border issue as he tried to emphasise his credentials as a deal-maker in the race to replace Theresa May.

Wishful thinking or based on something more substantial???

CrabRevolution · 09-06-2019 12:54PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Wishful thinking or based on something more substantial???

I think the important part is "look at any solutions the UK puts forward". Every "solution" the UK has put forward so far has been crap so I can't see them producing a miracle solution any time soon that the EU finds acceptable.

Enzokk · 09-06-2019 12:54PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Wishful thinking or based on something more substantial???

A bit of both, the EU has never rejected if new ideas are brought forward to try and get the deal through. The problem is the ideas were always constrained by the red lines from May. So unless the new PM throws away the red lines, unlikely, it is nothing more than wishful thinking.

trellheim · 09-06-2019 12:55PM

Has anyone got a non-"magic beans" definition of "managed no deal"

Stop moaning ffs · 09-06-2019 12:58PM

Enzokk wrote: »

A bit of both, the EU has never rejected if new ideas are brought forward to try and get the deal through. The problem is the ideas were always constrained by the red lines from May. So unless the new PM throws away the red lines, unlikely, it is nothing more than wishful thinking.

Wondered about this.
If I were running for PM I’d go on the promise that we’d scrap this deal and start again. It wouldn’t be popular at all but as it stands that’s deal is never going to get through Parliament and they’ll never leave with no deal either so it’s in limbo for years to come i reckon

volchitsa · 09-06-2019 01:08PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Wondered about this.
If I were running for PM I’d go on the promise that we’d scrap this deal and start again. It wouldn’t be popular at all but as it stands that’s deal is never going to get through Parliament and they’ll never leave with no deal either so it’s in limbo for years to come i reckon

Why exactly would the EU agree to scrap it and start again, and what exactly would be different this time around that both the EU would agree to and that would get through Westminster?

Flex · 09-06-2019 01:20PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Wishful thinking or based on something more substantial???

I saw him on Rigby this morning when he made that comment. It sounded interesting until he subsequently was asked to elaborate and said Merkel told him that ‘Germany can’t solve he border for them; it has become an issue due to UK choosing to Brexit, so the UK needs to solve it’. He then went on about technology and ‘smart borders’ but when asked he couldn’t produce or suggest anything beyond ‘technology’ and how his business experience would be helpful

So Nothing new, sounded like Merkel was reiterating the EU position of the backstop being an insurance policy “unless and until” something replaces it, so the UK needs to find something

trellheim · 09-06-2019 01:21PM

Tusk was very clear that the UK should use this breathing space to figure out what it wants. Instead it is spinning ever sillier as ambition comes to the fore, and this space is being completely wasted - where was the negotiating to explore different aspects and so on.

E.G Red line re ECJ gets removed and you will see change on the EU side. Add FOM and you will see change on the EU side .

Nearly every single one of them wants to roll up the political declaration with the WA which is just plain silly and wont happen. They

BluePlanet · 09-06-2019 02:09PM

trellheim wrote: »

Tusk was very clear that the UK should use this breathing space to figure out what it wants. Instead it is spinning ever sillier as ambition comes to the fore, and this space is being completely wasted - where was the negotiating to explore different aspects and so on

Exactly. I figured the extension was just more time wasting.

Agreeing to 2 extensions has been perceived as weakness by the enemies of Europe. No more extensions and no more negotiation.
Government ought to be pouring the concrete for new volume of sea freight that we'll need.

Stop moaning ffs · 09-06-2019 02:14PM

volchitsa wrote: »

Why exactly would the EU agree to scrap it and start again, and what exactly would be different this time around that both the EU would agree to and that would get through Westminster?

Oh I agree. But I think the Eu would rather this roll on under a new negotiation than grant endless extensions. As someone just said it’s more than likely they’re pissed off and want something anything from the uk right now.
But I can see them going for a redo rather than granting more extensions. And will maybe insist on a second referendum as a price on furhther extension so as to break this endless deadlock

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Comments