Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Akrasia

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Michael Gove says he took cocaine. This is problematic. I've never taken cocaine so is Michael Gove cooler than me?

Don't worry, he might have smoked Crack but he didn't inhale

Tell me how

A portion of the latest BBC podcast, Brexitcast on which Laura Keunssberg and Katya Adler appear frequently, involved the hosts suggesting which one of the Kardashians is most like each of them.

https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1136922169844350976

This is the blurb each of them are using for promoting the show on Twitter.
I hard that last night and it kept coming in to my mind this morning how bizzarre it is to be so flippant about where the country is at on the day the PM charged with delivering Brexit resigned.

Cal4567

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Really great interview on brexit with James O Brien of LBC on the Irish Times podcast this morning. He fairly points out that Irish media have been worlds ahead covering brexit compared to their British counterparts. Can’t argue with that.

https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/irish-times-inside-politics/id794389685?i=1000440904330

That's solely because he and the Irish media agree with each other re Brexit. He's an ardent Remainer as are the IT. I much prefer getting my news from an impartial source.

Stop moaning ffs

Cal4567 wrote: »

That's solely because he and the Irish media agree with each other re Brexit. He's an ardent Remainer as are the IT. I much prefer getting my news from an impartial source.

That’s unfair.
If there impartial news sources out there I’d love you to recommend them to us.

A Dub in Glasgo

Cal4567 wrote: »

I much prefer getting my news from an impartial source.

Where do you get your news from?

Cal4567

listermint wrote: »

I'm actually struggling to understand your thought process. Changing of the guard is good..good for who. The UK might feel comfortable bullying the new guard

Why is that good.


The UK is out in Oct unless they do something internally dramatic. That's jobs and a dive in the economy greater than 2008.

What's good about that. I just really don't understand what you are Getting at.

I think they mean good for the UK. Possibly but we won't know until that happens. I am most likely in the minority here but I don't think the UK will suffer too much post Brexit. And that's from my own experience. I work extensively in both the UK and Ireland. Believe me, there will certainly not be a
'dive in the economy greater than 2008'.

The UK will be fine.

If you are only based in Ireland, read the Irish Times and take in all the pro Euro bile we get from our media, then what are you to think? However, at the other extreme, large segments of the UK media will give you the direct opposite.

The 'truth' is somewhere in the middle.

I also think we will be fine too but the EU and our pro EU government and media don't want change. Ireland is very conservative, always has been. Look at the initial opposition to the 1916 rebellion?

Tell me how

Cal4567 wrote: »

I think they mean good for the UK. Possibly but we won't know until that happens. I am most likely in the minority here but I don't think the UK will suffer too much post Brexit. And that's from my own experience. I work extensively in both the UK and Ireland. Believe me, there will certainly not be a
'dive in the economy greater than 2008'.

The UK will be fine.

If you are only based in Ireland, read the Irish Times and take in all the pro Euro bile we get from our media, then what are you to think? However, at the other extreme, large segments of the UK media will give you the direct opposite.

The 'truth' is somewhere in the middle.

I also think we will be fine too but the EU and our pro EU government and media don't want change. Ireland is very conservative, always has been. Look at the initial opposition to the 1916 rebellion?

Do you think you are the only one who posts on this thread who spends time working or otherwise in Ireland and the UK or who is only accessing Irish media.

You seem to think this is 1915 in terms of the transparency Irish people have as to what is going on over there.

There was a poster on here previously who held similar views to yours and also claimed to have extensive experience of working both within the UK and Ireland. Interestingly, after posting on the thread for several weeks, they then asked "What are Theresa May's red lines"....

Professor Moriarty

Cal4567 wrote: »

I think they mean good for the UK. Possibly but we won't know until that happens. I am most likely in the minority here but I don't think the UK will suffer too much post Brexit. And that's from my own experience. I work extensively in both the UK and Ireland. Believe me, there will certainly not be a
'dive in the economy greater than 2008'.

The UK will be fine.

If you are only based in Ireland, read the Irish Times and take in all the pro Euro bile we get from our media, then what are you to think? However, at the other extreme, large segments of the UK media will give you the direct opposite.

The 'truth' is somewhere in the middle.

I also think we will be fine too but the EU and our pro EU government and media don't want change. Ireland is very conservative, always has been. Look at the initial opposition to the 1916 rebellion?

Thanks to this thing called the internet, I can read English newspapers. The Telegraph, Mail and Express aren't newspapers as we would have here in Ireland. I wouldn't wrap my chips in them.

Cal4567

I rarely post here. I will be back in a year and we will see where we are.

I just do not subscribe to the Fintan O'Toole mindset. What I will say so is though - the level of debate in the UK on Brexit mirrors it here. Only here it is parcelled up as intellectual thought. We are ask thick as the average Brit.

I don't just claim to have extensive experience. I have. Your last comment, the put down, shows where your argument is going. I'm out of here.

CrabRevolution

Cal4567 wrote: »

I rarely post here. I will be back in a year and we will see where we are.

I just do not subscribe to the Fintan O'Toole mindset. What I will say so is though - the level of debate in the UK on Brexit mirrors it here. Only here it is parcelled up as intellectual thought. We are ask thick as the average Brit.

I don't just claim to have extensive experience. I have. Your last comment, the put down, shows where your argument is going. I'm out of here.

There seems to be more of these cowardly "I don't post here often and won't be replying, but Brexit will be great and you're all wrong" posts lately.

But your fundamental point is wrong. Ireland's (and the EU's) perspective is quite reasonable: "You are free to leave the EU, but you won't get the same benefits that members have, and you are also expected to adhere to previous treaties and agreements the UK has entered into ". This is the "bile" most often posted here and agreed with by most posters.

The UK position is generally some variant of "We're leaving but wish to maintain all benefits of membership but none of the responsibilities. We also wish to renegue on any international agreements we've previously entered into if we feel the need to do so, again with no consequence."

There's absolutely no equivalence.

A Dub in Glasgo

Cal4567 wrote: »

I rarely post here. I will be back in a year and we will see where we are.

I just do not subscribe to the Fintan O'Toole mindset. What I will say so is though - the level of debate in the UK on Brexit mirrors it here. Only here it is parcelled up as intellectual thought. We are ask thick as the average Brit.

I don't just claim to have extensive experience. I have. Your last comment, the put down, shows where your argument is going. I'm out of here.

I live in the UK and the level of debate is nothing like this thread

BTW, you did not tell us what source you get your news from

Zubeneschamali

Cal4567 wrote: »

Believe me, there will certainly not be a
'dive in the economy greater than 2008'.

Hmm, I'm torn. Should I believe you, some random guy on the internet, or the British Governments reports prepared by their own civil service?

Cal4567

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I live in the UK and the level of debate is nothing like this thread

BTW, you did not tell us what source you get your news from

BBC, Channel 4 and on-line The Guardian and Telegraph. All these give me a wide enough perspective to allow me then to form my own view coupled with my on the ground day to day experience. Politically, I wouldn't have any time for Boris Johnson and as for the Brexit Party, like UKIP they are one trick pones with just the single focus, Brexit.

My analysis would take into account a more global focus as well. Not just Europe.

Cal4567

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Hmm, I'm torn. Should I believe you, some random guy on the internet, or the British Governments reports prepared by their own civil service?

I'd be avoiding all civil servants. Here and the UK. Full of conservative mindsets, never had to make a commercial decision in their lifes and certainly not going to do so now in their early to late 50s.

Capt'n Midnight

Cal4567 wrote: »

That's solely because he and the Irish media agree with each other re Brexit. He's an ardent Remainer as are the IT. I much prefer getting my news from an impartial source.

How many votes did Hermann Kelly get recently ?


Somehow 99.3% of the Dublin constituency agreed to not vote for the Irexit candidate. Real conspiracy stuff there.

Given that the Brexit party got 30% of the vote in the UK and how many UK citizens allowed to vote here in EU elections the only surprise is just how bad Irexit really did.

Zubeneschamali

Cal4567 wrote: »

I'd be avoiding all civil servants. Here and the UK. Full of conservative mindsets, never had to make a commercial decision in their lifes and certainly not going to do so now in their early to late 50s.

No-one is asking them to make a commercial decision. They were tasked with estimating the cost of Brexit, and their estimate was 3.5 to 9.5 % of GDP. The higher number was for a WTO style deal with Europe, and is indeed more than the hit in 2008.

But you are right, they are a conservative bunch, and that is a conservative estimate, assuming a smooth transition to the new relationship and the hit spread over many years. No Deal next October would be chaotic, the hit would be much more sudden and would be bigger than that.

A Dub in Glasgo

Cal4567 wrote: »

BBC, Channel 4 and on-line The Guardian and Telegraph. All these give me a wide enough perspective to allow me then to form my own view coupled with my on the ground day to day experience. Politically, I wouldn't have any time for Boris Johnson and as for the Brexit Party, like UKIP they are one trick pones with just the single focus, Brexit.

My analysis would take into account a more global focus as well. Not just Europe.

You claim a wide range yet dismiss the Irish Times and LBC

Professor Moriarty

Cal4567 wrote: »

I'd be avoiding all civil servants. Here and the UK. Full of conservative mindsets, never had to make a commercial decision in their lifes and certainly not going to do so now in their early to late 50s.

So if you don't trust the British Civil Service's report on the impact of Brexit on the British economy, who are you trusting?

20silkcut

Cal4567 wrote: »

I'd be avoiding all civil servants. Here and the UK. Full of conservative mindsets, never had to make a commercial decision in their lifes and certainly not going to do so now in their early to late 50s.

Could you give us some of the benefits of Brexit from your perspective??

Enzokk

Cal4567 wrote: »

That's solely because he and the Irish media agree with each other re Brexit. He's an ardent Remainer as are the IT. I much prefer getting my news from an impartial source.

But what about the substance of what they said do you disagree with, other than it will not be as bad as people think it will be?

Cal4567

Irish Times and James O'Brien are too one sided. Yes, even compared to The Guardian and C4.

Before I go, the new Tory PM may have to play their ace card later this summer or in early Autumn. The No deal option and see if the EU blink. My feeling is they will agree a time related scenario for the backstop with promises of financial support for us. A no deal does not suit either side. Also, the UK has to leave no. There is no going back from this.

Enzokk

Cal4567 wrote: »

Irish Times and James O'Brien are too one sided. Yes, even compared to The Guardian and C4.

Before I go, the new Tory PM may have to play their ace card later this summer or in early Autumn. The No deal option and see if the EU blink. My feeling is they will agree a time related scenario for the backstop with promises of financial support for us. A no deal does not suit either side. Also, the UK has to leave no. There is no going back from this.

Again, what did they say that is provably wrong? As for the backstop suddenly receiving a time delay, why now and not before the initial no-deal deadline when it was less clear that parliament and the Speaker would ensure it doesn't happen? Seems to me like that the UK has wasted that card already.

A Dub in Glasgo

Cal4567 wrote: »

Irish Times and James O'Brien are too one sided. Yes, even compared to The Guardian and C4.

Before I go, the new Tory PM may have to play their ace card later this summer or in early Autumn. The No deal option and see if the EU blink. My feeling is they will agree a time related scenario for the backstop with promises of financial support for us. A no deal does not suit either side. Also, the UK has to leave no. There is no going back from this.

So in a nutshell - you have decided after consulting all the wide range of sources that the EU are going to 'blink'?

MrMusician18

20silkcut wrote: »

Could you give us some of the benefits of Brexit from your perspective??

The benefits of Brexit are strategic if this large (and large underplays the size of the wager!) bet pays off. Many brexiters think that the EU is doomed to fail and that Brexit will essentially give them first mover advantage. It's a huge bet though, one in which they've placed their medium term prosperity on. And the odds are against them in the near to medium term political outlook, making the payoff less likely, but importantly still not impossible.

If they are right, and that event occurs, Britain will be once again a powerful nation amongst the rivalries in Europe. It will also be negotiating with at least equals or lessors.

Among the more academic brexiters this would seem to be the line of thought. That and it enables the well positioned to make a fortune. They've sold it to others who've given it less intellectual consideration as basically a flag waving identity project. It's a great con tbh.

MrMusician18

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

So in a nutshell - you have decided after consulting all the wide range of sources that the EU are going to 'blink'?

Maybe this is Katya Adler's boards account?!

Professor Moriarty

Odd that someone trashes a variety of sources, including the British government's own appraisal, yet they won't reveal their own sources for their opinions.

Professor Moriarty

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

So in a nutshell - you have decided after consulting all the wide range of sources that the EU are going to 'blink'?

From, of all places, The Telegraph's website. It's their main headline:

Michel Barnier warns Tory leadership hopefuls that EU will never renegotiate Brexit agreement

Enzokk

The tradition of failing upwards is alive and well with Theresa May giving a helping hand to those that were loyal to her with the upcoming Queen's Birthday Honours List. Were you in charge of a national scandal that is still happening and cost one minister her job? You get a knighthood. Were you Chief Constable in charge where 373 kids were groomed and sexually abused, but you fall under May's constituency? You are to be made a dame.

Queen's Birthday Honours for Theresa May cronies - including Windrush Scandal chief

Theresa May’s former top officials and political cronies have been handed gongs - despite the Prime Minister slamming David Cameron after his chums got honours in his resignation list.

The awards for Mrs May’s loyal Home Office staff and top police chiefs were revealed just hours after she quit as Tory leader and as she prepares to skulk out of No10.


Head of immigration Glyn Williams becomes a Knight Commander of the Order of the Bath in the Queen’s Birthday Honours - despite his role in the Windrush scandal.

Mr Williams served as the Home Office’s head of migration policy between August 2010 to 2013 when the hostile environment policy was developed.

...

Another controversial honour goes to police chief Sara Thornton who had to apologise for her role in one of the worst child sex slavery scandals in British history.

Ms Thornton said she was “delighted and humbled” to be made a Dame.

The current Independent Anti-Slavery Commissioner was chief constable of Thames Valley Police - which includes Mrs May’s Maidenhead constituency - in 2007 to 2015.

The force failed to help up to 373 children who were groomed, plied with drugs and alcohol and sexually abused in Oxford.

What's that, we have to feel sorry for May crying because she lost her job that she really loves?

An Ciarraioch

Leadsom smoked cannabis in the past, which makes her as radical as Brian Cowen:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/andrea-leadsom-cannabis-weed-drugs-michael-gove-cocaine-tory-leadership-a8950276.html

Zubeneschamali

Cal4567 wrote: »

Before I go, the new Tory PM may have to play their ace card later this summer or in early Autumn. The No deal option and see if the EU blink. My feeling is they will agree a time related scenario for the backstop with promises of financial support for us. A no deal does not suit either side. Also, the UK has to leave no. There is no going back from this.

Firstly, No Deal was firmly rejected by Parliament, and the new PM won't have any better numbers than May had at Westminster.

Secondly, the EU has been really preparing for No Deal, as opposed to the UK who cancelled their prep more than a month ago, so No Deal would hurt the UK a lot more than the EU. It's an idiotic bluff which everyone on the EU side is laughing at, not an ace card.

Thirdly, the UK have not gone anywhere yet, so there is no going back required - just cancel Brexit and don't leave. In practice, they may have to extend A50 a few times before that is politically possible - extend it year by year until 2025, then call it off when more Brexiteers die of cataplexy.