European Parliament Elections 2019

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Did I hear right on RTE news this morning that it might take a month to sort out?

If they had to do a full recount I'd imagine it could take a while, although a month seems extreme.
Most of the counters must be gone back to work at this stage also.

edit to add, just saw this:
https://twitter.com/davitter/status/1133874438527705088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1133874438527705088&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.broadsheet.ie%2F

https://twitter.com/davitter/status/1133874444995301376

so yeah maybe a month :eek:

charlie14 wrote: »

I wouldn`t take much of anything from our European election results when it comes to predicting a GE result.
European elections to me are much like the European Song Contest. A very diverse range of contestants where a bit of razzamatazz has often as much to do with selecting a winner as content.
The elections carried out on the same day as the European elections, the locals, are a much better indicator of a GE outcome, and from those neither FF or FG look to be within a country mile of leading a majority or even a stable government.
In fact from those results it is a toss of a coin as to which of them would be the largest party

Tbh, I don't think anyone is expecting a majority government. The two main parties haven't got much more than half the vote. They'd need to get back to their historical figures to get back there, and that's not going to happen.

Would not rule out a FG/Green coalition. Might need some independents too. I could see greens getting ten seats at the next general.

Snow Garden wrote: »

I have given SF candidates a few preference votes in the recent past. I also think Mary Lou is a much better leader than Gerry. She was absolutely superb during the Repeal-8th campaign. I did not give SF a preference this time around and I am not sure exactly why but my perception of them is pretty poor over the last couple years. Some of the things, whether valid or not, that bother me are;

- Ongoing and long running bullying within the party. They do seem to run their party in a dictatorial and secretive manner.
- The Stormont impasse especially around trivial issues like the Irish language. They are not fit/able for power.
- Ni Riada and the minimum wage nonsense during the presidential election
- All the United Ireland propaganda during Brexit crisis
- ATM robberies. I know I know, dissidents but still.
- Lyra McKee murder. I know I know. It's their reactions and fake empathy that bother me at some level.
- I often watch the Tonight Show and there is a SF TD on there regularly that gives me the creeps. He can never answer a question truthfully either. Found his name - David Cullinane. Many SF TDs seem coached to communicate the exact same message.
- Pearse Doherty and his magical money tree that will fix everything.

We definitely need an alternative to FF/FG but SF will probably never be it.

Lol I agree about that David Cullinane fella. Weird vibe off him.

I don't know how you'd think Mary Lou was good during the 8th Campaign. She bullied Peadar Tóibín and Carol Nolan left for the same reason. If there is one issue on which the whip is inappropriate, it's abortion. She could have kept voters on side by saying 'my view is this, but I will respect my party colleagues'. Instead, she wanted to align with the Dublin feminist line of thought, when the likes of Clare Daly and Megaphone Rita are always going to appeal more to those people.

I've always thought they lack the qualities for government. Can only shout from the sidelines without viable alternatives. Even for that role, Pearse Doherty is a far better leader to appeal to the grassroots.

charlie14 wrote: »

I wouldn`t take much of anything from our European election results when it comes to predicting a GE result.
European elections to me are much like the European Song Contest. A very diverse range of contestants where a bit of razzamatazz has often as much to do with selecting a winner as content.
The elections carried out on the same day as the European elections, the locals, are a much better indicator of a GE outcome, and from those neither FF or FG look to be within a country mile of leading a majority or even a stable government.
In fact from those results it is a toss of a coin as to which of them would be the largest party

Long post – apologies

As always with any Irish election process there is a huge amount of data out there to be analysed. First off I do not consider the local election results to be any kind of reliable indicator of where voter minds are at. FF have always (generally) ruled the roost in local government regardless of what was happening nationally. Instead lets look at the Euro vote patterns.

Take the First Preference votes breakdown (nationwide): FG - 29.6, FF - 16.5, SF - 11.7, Greens - 11.4, Labour - 3.1, PBP - 2.3 and Independents/I4C/Other - 25.3.

I would take this as being a good indicator of the current standing of the main parties heading into the next General Election. If that kind of preference is duplicated during a GE, then you would see a coalition between FG and Greens a real possibility (and one the electorate may go for). FG have the chance now to take real policy changes that address what they have been hearing on the doorstep – Housing (esp the shared living plan), environment issues, insurance costs and the Baliey affair, Childrens hospital and the broadband infrastructure plan. Taking all those issues into account, the FP stats make good reading.

On the other hand the FF vote either did not come out to play or the polls have overestimated their standing. 16.5% is a terrible result for them on a national level. The last RedC poll (23rd April) had them on 23% and on May 10th the IT/Ipsos MRBI poll had them on 26%. If anything these polls need to be looked at rather than the exit poll. If that result is duplicated in a GE, they would lose about 15-20% of their TD’s, with many going to the Greens or FG.

SF at 11.7% need to decide what they stand for – Are they a real alternative to Labour, or the new PD’s. One of the main issues they have always had is that they have played the role of botherer for the government in place for the past 10 years and did well out of it. They hit gold with the water charges and working class issues, but their policies have not been very clear where they lie. Now that the political landscape has calmed a little bit since the problems of 2008 onwards, they need to plant the mast somewhere and stick to it.

The GP rise, in my opinion, is down to the increased media profile of climate issues recently. The likes of Greta Thunberg has done Green Parties around the world a lot of good in getting young people energised about these important issues. Is it a flash in the pan? If they have learned their lesson from the mid-2000’s, maybe they can push on. Although that would mean they would stay well away from government in the next Dail.

Aside from all that the independent vote still alludes me – I have been saying for years that they will disappear into the shadows each election cycle, but still they maintain their patch.

I don't understand how someone tells a story full of lies and is caught out, because it was really stupid, and still gets elected. Maria Walsh is an embarrassment to us all.

eagle eye wrote: »

In what way are things slowly getting better?

Unemployment rate is one.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0521/1050766-labour-force-survey/

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't understand how someone tells a story full of lies and is caught out, because it was really stupid, and still gets elected. Maria Walsh is an embarrassment to us all.

What was the story?

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't understand how someone tells a story full of lies and is caught out, because it was really stupid, and still gets elected. Maria Walsh is an embarrassment to us all.

What is the background to this? Genuine question

Edit: see you've already answered

robman60 wrote: »

Lol I agree about that David Cullinane fella. Weird vibe off him.

I don't know how you'd think Mary Lou was good during the 8th Campaign. She bullied Peadar Tóibín and Carol Nolan left for the same reason. If there is one issue on which the whip is inappropriate, it's abortion. She could have kept voters on side by saying 'my view is this, but I will respect my party colleagues'. Instead, she wanted to align with the Dublin feminist line of thought, when the likes of Clare Daly and Megaphone Rita are always going to appeal more to those people.

I've always thought they lack the qualities for government. Can only shout from the sidelines without viable alternatives. Even for that role, Pearse Doherty is a far better leader to appeal to the grassroots.

Some think that Sinn Fein's stance on abortion with a lack a conscience vote cost them up to 5% in the polls because aontu took those voters.

eagle eye wrote: »

Yeah, check out the number of people taken off jobseekers and Putin courses where they get paid the same or slightly more money, still paid by the state of course.


I can't link to it in the phone. Just Google Maria Walsh and Mary Robinson.

I dont see anything about a fake story.
I can see in that cringey "90s" video she mentioned Mary Robinson being elected as the first female president...what was the story? What is the story full of lies? Can you give me the gist?

Yep on waterford whispers