European Parliament Elections 2019

tobsey wrote: »

When Rabbitte (FF) was eliminated in MNW, 55% the votes went to the party colleague, 2.8% to SF, 3% to GP, 9% to Ming and 12% to remaining FG candidate. If that pattern continued in the South, Kelleher will comfortably get through the quota but Wallace would only be close to it. Clune would pass O'Riada and O'Sullivan, but O'Sullivan would stay ahead of O'Riada. Then the last count would be Kelleher's surplus, which could well keep the O'Sullivan ahead and the last three seats are filled without reaching the quota.

It went as I thought it might earlier. Unbelievably tight though. Ni Riada is closer to O’Sullivan than I thought she’d be.

Do they go all the way back to first preferences from every candidate and go from there again?

I presume so, given a "full recount", so another four days in prospect?

Will this affect Deirdre Clune being elected?

Gael23 wrote: »

Will this affect Deirdre Clune being elected?

Elected? No

Potential for being in the useless seat? Maybe. If LNR goes out you would imagine her votes will transfer significantly more to the Greens than FG.

A recount/ recheck is exactly that votes are recounted a d checked. votes are left in same bundles and batches and just recounted. Where the fun starts is if an attempt is made to invalidate as many votes as possible. Is it in Clunes and FG interest for Ni Riada to get into 5th position. Clune would have a better chance if it was O Sullivan votes were distributed rather than Ni Riada.

A full recount could be completed tomorrow unless there is a real concentrated efforts to check every ballot to change the order between Ni Riada and O'Sullivan

blanch152 wrote: »

So assume that everything stays as is, and the extra seats are confirmed.

The Greens went into the Euro election with no seats, and left with two.
Fine Gael went into the Euro election with four seats, and left with five.
Fianna Fail went into the Euro election with one seat, and left with two.
Independents for Change went into the Euro election with zero seats, and left with two.
Sinn Fein went into the Euro election with three seats, and left with one.

Pretty clear who were the winners and losers in the election.

FG are the only significant winners, the Greens may be a flash in the pan, FF had a gain but their 12% vote in MNW, shows they are going to be props to FG for years to come.

They are just lucky SF ****ed up.

Bass Reeves wrote: »

On approximately 30% of 1st preferences FG took 4+1
On approximately 17% of 1st preferences FF took 1+1
On approximately 12% of 1st preferences SF took 1
On approximately 11% of 1st preferences Greens took 2
On approximately 15 of 1st preferences IND took 1
On approximately 9% of 1st preferences I4C took 2

You can swop a seat between Greens and SF but it easy to see the winners FG and the real winners I4C. Can you imagine the scene in the comedy in 20 years time an Irish Coleen Claire and her boyfriend Mick in bed after an adult scene.
'' Jayus Claire I going to run in the European election for the laugh''
'' God Mick that will be a how but it will cost you a fortune''
'' yerra I run it on a shoe string no posters just a bit of social media''
''Mick I might run as well it would be hreat fun''
''Claire can you imagine if one of us got elected''
'' That would be a real how Mick can you imagine if we both got elected we be in Europe with Ming the merciless, he got elected on a big vote''

Nightmare in Strasbourg Street

FG have it sown up for the next term, given FFs severe support problem in the under 40s they will remain too far short of being leaders in a stable government.

Bass Reeves wrote: »

On approximately 30% of 1st preferences FG took 4+1
On approximately 17% of 1st preferences FF took 1+1
On approximately 12% of 1st preferences SF took 1
On approximately 11% of 1st preferences Greens took 2
On approximately 15 of 1st preferences IND took 1
On approximately 9% of 1st preferences I4C took 2

You can swop a seat between Greens and SF but it easy to see the winners FG and the real winners I4C. Can you imagine the scene in the comedy in 20 years time an Irish Coleen Claire and her boyfriend Mick in bed after an adult scene.
'' Jayus Claire I going to run in the European election for the laugh''
'' God Mick that will be a howl but it will cost you a fortune''
'' yerra I run it on a shoe string no posters just a bit of social media''
''Mick I might run as well it would be great fun''
''Claire can you imagine if one of us got elected''
'' That would be a real howl Mick can you imagine if we both got elected we be in Europe with Ming the Merciless, he got elected on a bog vote''

Nightmare in Strasbourg Street

Funny thing is, it could finish I4C, even as it sets the two of them up for life. Without a proper Dail presence, the seats may be gone.

eagle eye wrote: »

I stand to make a few hundred grand myself.
I didn't tell any of you beforehand but you know you gotta believe me.

Right, I'm lying to randomers on the internet.

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Politically, you are correct - there is no appetite for this at all for a generation - but that doesn't mean that it's not worth exploring and understanding options.



But if it is made available in any way to the individual voter, than that voter can sell their vote, or can be forced under duress to vote in a particular way. There is a good reason why you don't get a receipt or equivalent for your ballot paper. A receipt that confirmed your vote, whether a paper receipt or a receipt through some online blockchain verification, that creates the opening for vote selling or duress voting.


And if there is no verification, then the voter has no way of knowing if their vote was recorded.


It's a Catch 22. It's not a technology problem. It is just the requirement for anonymity is impossible to implement in an auditable way.






It really is verifiable, at a systemic level. Every stage of the process is verifiable. Every stage of the count is done in public view of those with direct vested interests in the process - the sealing of boxes, the opening of boxes, the sorting and counting, the transferring. Experienced tally folks will sometimes claim that they have actually spotted their own vote while tallying, due to the particular voting pattern. Any identifying mark, such as a doodle or a note will invalidate the vote.

The only way you could be certain that your vote was counted would be if you could view the entire database of votes cast, including your own and validate that the count result was correct.



But again, if you can validate your own vote, you can sell your vote and be forced to vote by a family member. It breaches the safety that comes from the privacy of the polling booth.


There is no workable solution with blockchain, and that's without even considering any of the technical challenges involved.

You should study the types of things that Blockchain is being developed towards and is already being used for

- Health records storage at hospitals and transfer to insurers, SSL Certification, Banking, auto-payments via smart contracts, tonnes of stuff - huge financial value and huge privacy requirements - never been an issue

With voting as a use case, the voter can follow their vote into the blockchain before leaving the polling station. (S)he can be given an identifier that allows them to still see that vote on the blockchain 20 years later if they want (without revealing who the votes were to), accuracy of results can be mathematiccaly proven, ridiculous recounts like the one taking place in Cork can be forever eliminated, and with Blockchain being a trusted architecture, the voter if they understand Blockchain can have 100% confidence that their vote was never changed, and that their vote wasn't invalidated by some silly doodle. And yes, you can view the entire database of votes if you want to - but who would want to. You'd only really look at your own constituency which in the local election was typically 15,000 to 20,000 votes, or you could even chose to inspect just the totals that came out of one particular polling station or subset from a polling station as per the physical boxes used now (a useful tool for election strategists also)

By the way, to address this notion that the pencil/paper system is fool proof - When I was in the local school voting last Friday, it was a reasonably busy time of the evening and I spent a fair bit of time there as I'd know the people working there and got chatting. I noticed that generally, couples were entering and sharing booths when marking their papers. There was absolutely no check done in that school whatsoever as to whether the voters were acting freely in the process - many couples were openly looking at each others papers while marking their choices. In fact, my own wife who hasn't got a clue about politics and who only shows up to vote coz I nag her to come (and to have a natter with the staff herself), tends to just copy whatever I do in every single election!

Bass Reeves wrote: »

On approximately 30% of 1st preferences FG took 4+1
On approximately 17% of 1st preferences FF took 1+1
On approximately 12% of 1st preferences SF took 1
On approximately 11% of 1st preferences Greens took 2
On approximately 15 of 1st preferences IND took 1
On approximately 9% of 1st preferences I4C took 2

You can swop a seat between Greens and SF but it easy to see the winners FG and the real winners I4C. Can you imagine the scene in the comedy in 20 years time an Irish Coleen Claire and her boyfriend Mick in bed after an adult scene.
'' Jayus Claire I going to run in the European election for the laugh''
'' God Mick that will be a howl but it will cost you a fortune''
'' yerra I run it on a shoe string no posters just a bit of social media''
''Mick I might run as well it would be great fun''
''Claire can you imagine if one of us got elected''
'' That would be a real howl Mick can you imagine if we both got elected we be in Europe with Ming the Merciless, he got elected on a bog vote''

Nightmare in Strasbourg Street

I always thought that 'relationship' had the makings of a Callan's Kicks sketch: Middle-class trot Claire preaching revolution in her 'real' accent to 'Moichael,' her skivvy cum bit of rough, before switching to her 'Moore Street' voice when someone else enters the room...

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

I occasionally vote Sinn Fein but I'm not much of a fan of Liadh.I predicted she would lose the seat. Transfers awful for SF in these elections.

They tend not to be very transfer friendly save from those on the left, one reason they need to be a lot higher than other parties. That could be even more problematic in a GE , where they depend on that left/independent vote to push them over the line. In some places that may open the door for Labour, Nash in Louth and O'Riordain in Dublin Bay North for example.