Border Poll discussion

RobMc59 · 16-04-2019 7:10pm

BluePlanet wrote: »

A federal republic consisting of local governments of the 4 Provinces is what the IRA and SF were fighting for.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89ire_Nua

Why would anyone want to hear what a terrorist organisation has to say-surely that would be a none starter?

BluePlanet · 16-04-2019 7:31pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

Why would anyone want to hear what a terrorist organisation has to say-surely that would be a none starter?

You sure about that?
Sounds what some unionist minded people here are close to proposing.

Junkyard Tom · 16-04-2019 7:50pm

blanch152 wrote: »

One of the many complaints from places like Donegal and Kerry is that they are treated like an afterthought by the Dublin-based government and civil service. How can you state so clearly that this won't happen in a united Ireland?

Derry should be to Belfast what Cork is to Dublin - it isn't. A lot of the northwest's malaise was due to decades of sectarian Unionist misrule.

The locating of Coleraine University was a perfect example of vindictive sectarian misrule and it seems as if the spectre of such public policy hasn't gone away.

cj maxx · 16-04-2019 9:26pm

As a nationalist who grew up very close to the border on the South I had assumed most catholics wanted a united Ireland.
Now after living in the North a while I have A sincere doubt that many of the‘nationalists’ would actually vote to join the republic

downcow · 17-04-2019 5:47am

cjmc wrote: »

As a nationalist who grew up very close to the border on the South I had assumed most catholics wanted a united Ireland.
Now after living in the North a while I have A sincere doubt that many of the‘nationalists’ would actually vote to join the republic

This what all the polling consistently says, though some on here want to convince themselves otherwise.
The are a large swathe of nationalists up here who are very comfortable in current situation

Avatar MIA · 17-04-2019 6:08am

downcow wrote: »

This what all the polling consistently says, though some on here want to convince themselves otherwise.
The are a large swathe of nationalists up here who are very comfortable in current situation

And what does that polling say when the DUP get their "careful what you wish for" wet dream of a hard border?

Even if a hard brexit doesn't happen the Stockholm Syndrome has been shaken, for the first time people are wiping the sleep from their eyes and questioning if there's a better option.

The Northern Ireland Rip Van Winkle is awakening from a nearly 100 year sleep.

murphaph · 17-04-2019 8:13am

downcow wrote: »

This what all the polling consistently says, though some on here want to convince themselves otherwise.
The are a large swathe of nationalists up here who are very comfortable in current situation

This is true as long as there is no hard Brexit. If Brexit doesn't happen or it's a BINO then I don't foresee a united Ireland in my lifetime. Things will just settle down again. If it does happen, all bets are off.

facehugger99 · 17-04-2019 8:15am

cjmc wrote: »

I have A sincere doubt that many of the‘nationalists’ would actually vote to join the republic

It'll surprise you even more how many of the 'nationalists' in the Republic won't want it when they're told how much it'll cost them.:D

downcow · 17-04-2019 8:45am

murphaph wrote: »

This is true as long as there is no hard Brexit. If Brexit doesn't happen or it's a BINO then I don't foresee a united Ireland in my lifetime. Things will just settle down again. If it does happen, all bets are off.

Agreed totally.
And I don’t think a hard brexit will change much but o accept it would be into the unknown

jm08 · 17-04-2019 9:05am

downcow wrote: »

This what all the polling consistently says, though some on here want to convince themselves otherwise.
The are a large swathe of nationalists up here who are very comfortable in current situation

Not sure about that theory, if that was the case Sinn Fein would not be doing as well as they are electorally. SDLP/Alliance/Greens should be doing better.

What do unionists feel about a nationalist majority coming down the tracks. Surely, that must be more worrying for them than a UI?

FrancieBrady · 17-04-2019 9:11am

I agree with the writer of this piece that polls (particularly of aspirational things like a UI) can be very inaccurate both ways. But the trends are interesting and encouraging.
The unknowns are interesting - what would happen if Scotland depart - if a Tory PM really is bitter about Unionists tying his/her hands (the recent lack of interest/care expressed by the rest of the UK would mean he/she could probably propose what they want for NI) - what would be proposed regarding outside support for a UI etc - and the nature of the type of Brexit we do get (I am more than convinced that NONE of the Brexit's on the table will be good for northern Ireland ultimately because the UK itself is hopelessly riven)

In the most recent elections, unionists have been scoring less than 50 per cent of the vote for the first time in the North’s history, a result in line with recent polls.

Brexit has clearly had an impact. Polls carried out since the referendum have detected two crucial changes in people’s voting intentions on the Border. Traditionally there was a notable minority of nationalist/republicans who were “sort of okay” with the status quo in the North. This group fully supported the 1998 Good Friday agreement, supported devolution, and were pro-EU. Yes, this group still had Irish nationalist aspirations, but they were prepared to wait for a united Ireland. However, post the Brexit referendum, this group has now shifted and become much more assertively pro a united Ireland.

Secondly (and similarly), the vast majority of the Alliance/Green/Others voting block (and, importantly, this is currently about 11 per cent of the voter base) have historically been in favour of the North remaining in the UK. But post the EU referendum, a section of this group has swung to the pro-united Ireland camp, mainly to ensure the North remains within the EU.

Polls are never precisely right, but they’re never totally wrong either
In addition, the number of Don’t Knows/Not Sures in this group has also grown significantly; moving from their original pro Northern Ireland in the UK position.

However, all polls still show a border poll producing a majority in favour of the North remaining in the UK. But the margin is a lot closer than some might expect. On average, the polls show support of the North staying in the UK at around the early to mid-50 per cent (excluding non-voters/ Don’t Knows).

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/polls-suggest-gradual-shift-to-united-ireland-1.3645214

bob mcbob · 17-04-2019 11:24am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I agree with the writer of this piece that polls (particularly of aspirational things like a UI) can be very inaccurate both ways. But the trends are interesting and encouraging.
The unknowns are interesting - what would happen if Scotland depart - if a Tory PM really is bitter about Unionists tying his/her hands (the recent lack of interest/care expressed by the rest of the UK would mean he/she could probably propose what they want for NI) - what would be proposed regarding outside support for a UI etc - and the nature of the type of Brexit we do get (I am more than convinced that NONE of the Brexit's on the table will be good for northern Ireland ultimately because the UK itself is hopelessly riven)

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/polls-suggest-gradual-shift-to-united-ireland-1.3645214

This is interesting and not knowing much about it as I am Scottish (but with experience of indy ref), I have a question / observation.

Assuming the border poll did happen.
I understand how political parties in the North would line up but the critical part would be how parties in the Republic would react. Ultimately reunification will cost a lot of money. Would they campaign like Brexit (unicorns for all) or more reality driven i.e. short term pain for long term gain. Also would everyone in the republic be happy with this?

RobMc59 · 17-04-2019 11:27am

murphaph wrote: »

This is true as long as there is no hard Brexit. If Brexit doesn't happen or it's a BINO then I don't foresee a united Ireland in my lifetime. Things will just settle down again. If it does happen, all bets are off.

I liked your suggestion a few weeks ago about the possibility of a self governing Ulster with maybe Donegal in the mix-I wonder if there would be any appetite for an Ulster alliance with an independent Scotland-they have historical ties and that may be a better fit than rule by Dublin.

jm08 · 17-04-2019 11:33am

bob mcbob wrote: »

This is interesting and not knowing much about it as I am Scottish (but with experience of indy ref), I have a question / observation.

Assuming the border poll did happen.
I understand how political parties in the North would line up but the critical part would be how parties in the Republic would react. Ultimately reunification will cost a lot of money. Would they campaign like Brexit (unicorns for all) or more reality driven i.e. short term pain for long term gain. Also would everyone in the republic be happy with this?

All the parties in Republic support a UI, but more importantly, The Constitution states:

Article 3
1. It is the firm will of the Irish Nation, in harmony and friendship, to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland, in all the diversity of their identities and traditions, recognising that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people, democratically expressed, in both jurisdictions in the island. Until then, the laws enacted by the Parliament established by this Constitution shall have the like area and extent of application as the laws enacted by the Parliament[2] that existed immediately before the coming into operation of this Constitution.

McMurphy · 17-04-2019 11:36am

RobMc59 wrote: »

I liked your suggestion a few weeks ago about the possibility of a self governing Ulster with maybe Donegal in the mix-I wonder if there would be any appetite for an Ulster alliance with an independent Scotland-they have historical ties and that may be a better fit than rule by Dublin.

You want to effectively annex Donegal?

I wouldn't imagine there'd be a huge appetite from Donegalian folk to leave the 26 counties.

RobMc59 · 17-04-2019 11:38am

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

You want to effectively annex Donegal?

I was thinking that geographically and traditionally it's part of Ulster but obviously it was just a suggestion

breatheme · 17-04-2019 11:39am

RobMc59 wrote: »

I liked your suggestion a few weeks ago about the possibility of a self governing Ulster with maybe Donegal in the mix-I wonder if there would be any appetite for an Ulster alliance with an independent Scotland-they have historical ties and that may be a better fit than rule by Dublin.

Who's saying the Scottish would want Northern Ireland?

jm08 · 17-04-2019 11:39am

RobMc59 wrote: »

I liked your suggestion a few weeks ago about the possibility of a self governing Ulster with maybe Donegal in the mix-I wonder if there would be any appetite for an Ulster alliance with an independent Scotland-they have historical ties and that may be a better fit than rule by Dublin.

Bad and all as being part of the ROI, I can't see Donegal opting to throw their lot in with Stormont.

Not sure the present selection of politicians in the Stormont Assembly has shown much of an aptitude for governing anything.

Dytalus · 17-04-2019 11:46am

jm08 wrote: »

All the parties in Republic support a UI, but more importantly, The Constitution states:

Article 3
1. It is the firm will of the Irish Nation, in harmony and friendship, to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland, in all the diversity of their identities and traditions, recognising that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people, democratically expressed, in both jurisdictions in the island. Until then, the laws enacted by the Parliament established by this Constitution shall have the like area and extent of application as the laws enacted by the Parliament[2] that existed immediately before the coming into operation of this Constitution.

Yeah, but how many people take into account the parties' stances on UI when voting? I don't think it's ever been used in advertisements during elections, and nobody I know votes based on it - admittedly because up until Brexit they never saw it as likely to happen for another few generations, if at all. Fianna Fáil are nominally a unification party (it's one of their stated policies on their website), but nobody I know who votes FF votes because of it.

And sure we can all see how well Sinn Féin do in elections in Ireland too.

That doesn't address his question of "who would actually vote for it"? I'm happy taking a short term hit, for a long term gain. So too are a majority of the people I know, and a number of folks in this thread. But there are still people I know who are not. More specifically, they'd be happy for a temporary setback for eventual growth, but not one that is as large/long-lasting as they believe it would be immediately post-unification.

darem93 · 17-04-2019 11:48am

One thing I've always wondered about a border poll. Would it be similar to the GFA referendum, in that people were voting on a finalised agreement between all parties? (bar the DUP of course who will of course drag their heels and just scream 'no, no, no'). Or would people be even willing to discuss the prospect of a UI unless the public had given them a mandate via referendum?

I just think holding a referendum with no plan in place could be another Brexit style mess.

bob mcbob · 17-04-2019 11:50am

jm08 wrote: »

All the parties in Republic support a UI, but more importantly, The Constitution states:

Article 3
1. It is the firm will of the Irish Nation, in harmony and friendship, to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland, in all the diversity of their identities and traditions, recognising that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people, democratically expressed, in both jurisdictions in the island. Until then, the laws enacted by the Parliament established by this Constitution shall have the like area and extent of application as the laws enacted by the Parliament[2] that existed immediately before the coming into operation of this Constitution.

Yes I understand the constitution but the reality of for example tax increases to fund reunification. I am sure some taxpayers down south may not be so happy.

Could some parties be like Labour under Corbyn with Brexit i.e. for remain but not actually doing anything to promote it?

Dytalus · 17-04-2019 11:53am

darem93 wrote: »

One thing I've always wondered about a border poll. Would it be similar to the GFA referendum, in that people were voting on a finalised agreement between all parties? (bar the DUP of course who will of course drag their heels and just scream 'no, no, no'). Or would people be even willing to discuss the prospect of a UI unless the public had given them a mandate via referendum?

I just think holding a referendum with no plan in place could be another Brexit style mess.

I agree.

I think there's something to be said, however, that Unionist elements wouldn't engage in talks and legislative works before a referendum voted in favour of a UI in Northern Ireland. Sure why would they? Without the public support for a UI being stated in a referendum what reason would they have for engaging in something so fundamentally opposed to their stance on the matter? At least if NI votes in favour of UI then some might grimace and say "well there's a real chance this is happening now, let's engage in talks to try and get the best for our guys".

But there would need to be a referendum in the Republic too, prior to unification happening. A compromise might be: hold the first referendum in NI to signal that talks between Stormont/Westminster/Dublin need to begin -> Spend some time negoatiating and writing up the legislation and a plan on how to progress -> Referendum in the Republic to finalise the matter, based on what elected NI/Ireland representatives have approved legally.

FrancieBrady · 17-04-2019 11:57am

bob mcbob wrote: »

Yes I understand the constitution but the reality of for example tax increases to fund reunification. I am sure some taxpayers down south may not be so happy.

Could some parties be like Labour under Corbyn with Brexit i.e. for remain but not actually doing anything to promote it?

Who do you envisage doing that?

I don't think FF could hold the party together if they did.
Could Labour...doubtful, but do they matter much in the scheme of things anymore? Seems to me they would cede whatever's left to SF if they didn't come out strong for a UI.

Most likely it would be FG, pounding the Commonwealth beat and tipping the hat to monarchy etc. alá the John Briton wing. But again, are there all that many of that type left?
I think Leo and his generation might be falling in love with the bounce they get from standing up to Tory centric Irish policy.

That is not to say that 'costs and taxes' will be ignored, I just don't think they will be couched as prohibitive.

FrancieBrady · 17-04-2019 12:00pm

Dytalus wrote: »

I agree.

I think there's something to be said, however, that Unionist elements wouldn't engage in talks and legislative works before a referendum voted in favour of a UI in Northern Ireland. Sure why would they? Without the public support for a UI being stated in a referendum what reason would they have for engaging in something so fundamentally opposed to their stance on the matter? At least if NI votes in favour of UI then some might grimace and say "well there's a real chance this is happening now, let's engage in talks to try and get the best for our guys".

But there would need to be a referendum in the Republic too, prior to unification happening. A compromise might be: hold the first referendum in NI to signal that talks between Stormont/Westminster/Dublin need to begin -y.

Not going to happen, as Unionists, not unexpectedly, will just refuse to talk.

It will be talks between the two governments who are mandated to make the result of a poll happen.

Dytalus · 17-04-2019 12:07pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not going to happen, as Unionists, not unexpectedly, will just refuse to talk.

It will be talks between the two governments who are mandated to make the result of a poll happen.

If they refuse to engage post-poll, then that's their problem. I do believe the members of Stormont should be involved - not just the Oireachtas and HMG. And if that means inviting some DUP or [insert unionist party here] politicians to engage and they then ignore it and refuse to honour the GFA and the border poll?

Well then some politicians need to lose their seats, IMO. But maybe they'll be elected on that abstentionist policy similar to SF and Westminster, in which case those who vote for them can't complain that their voices aren't heard (though I suspect some of them will anyway).

bob mcbob · 17-04-2019 12:08pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Who do you envisage doing that?

I don't think FF could hold the party together if they did.
Could Labour...doubtful, but do they matter much in the scheme of things anymore? Seems to me they would cede whatever's left to SF if they didn't come out strong for a UI.

Most likely it would be FG, pounding the Commonwealth beat and tipping the hat to monarchy etc. alá the John Briton wing. But again, are there all that many of that type left?
I think Leo and his generation might be falling in love with the bounce they get from standing up to Tory centric Irish policy.

That is not to say that 'costs and taxes' will be ignored, I just don't think they will be couched as prohibitive.

No as I said I am Scottish and don't know the details but from indy ref asking people to get poorer (even just for short term is not a universal vote winner)

For example the German reunification tax was introduced in 1989 and 28 years later was still in place.

I would say there would be mileage out of that for a political party

RobMc59 · 17-04-2019 12:12pm

breatheme wrote: »

Who's saying the Scottish would want Northern Ireland?

They have more in common than any other proposed alliance or annexation -a lot of people in NI probably have more affinity with Scotland than Dublin and that would possibly be reciprocated.

Farawayhome · 17-04-2019 12:15pm

darem93 wrote: »

One thing I've always wondered about a border poll. Would it be similar to the GFA referendum, in that people were voting on a finalised agreement between all parties? (bar the DUP of course who will of course drag their heels and just scream 'no, no, no'). Or would people be even willing to discuss the prospect of a UI unless the public had given them a mandate via referendum?

I just think holding a referendum with no plan in place could be another Brexit style mess.

The GFA like any treaty before that was voted on under the threat of extreme violence by the British side. I don't know why this is always ignored, it's not exactly democratic, is it?

Farawayhome · 17-04-2019 12:16pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

They have more in common than any other proposed alliance or annexation -a lot of people in NI probably have more affinity with Scotland than Dublin and that would possibly be reciprocated.

A lot of Irish and Scottish people have a lot in common, far more than with English people anyway.

Frank Castle · 17-04-2019 12:35pm

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

You want to effectively annex Donegal?

I wouldn't imagine there'd be a huge appetite from Donegalian folk to leave the 26 counties.

As a unionist raised in Donegal before moving into the north, I can tell you pretty much no one there would be ok with this

RobMc59 wrote: »

I was thinking that geographically and traditionally it's part of Ulster but obviously it was just a suggestion

So are cavan and monaghan, why leave those out?

Border Poll discussion

Comments