BluePlanet wrote: » A federal republic consisting of local governments of the 4 Provinces is what the IRA and SF were fighting for.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89ire_Nua
RobMc59 wrote: » Why would anyone want to hear what a terrorist organisation has to say-surely that would be a none starter?
blanch152 wrote: » One of the many complaints from places like Donegal and Kerry is that they are treated like an afterthought by the Dublin-based government and civil service. How can you state so clearly that this won't happen in a united Ireland?
cjmc wrote: » As a nationalist who grew up very close to the border on the South I had assumed most catholics wanted a united Ireland. Now after living in the North a while I have A sincere doubt that many of the‘nationalists’ would actually vote to join the republic
downcow wrote: » This what all the polling consistently says, though some on here want to convince themselves otherwise. The are a large swathe of nationalists up here who are very comfortable in current situation
cjmc wrote: » I have A sincere doubt that many of the‘nationalists’ would actually vote to join the republic
murphaph wrote: » This is true as long as there is no hard Brexit. If Brexit doesn't happen or it's a BINO then I don't foresee a united Ireland in my lifetime. Things will just settle down again. If it does happen, all bets are off.
In the most recent elections, unionists have been scoring less than 50 per cent of the vote for the first time in the North’s history, a result in line with recent polls. Brexit has clearly had an impact. Polls carried out since the referendum have detected two crucial changes in people’s voting intentions on the Border. Traditionally there was a notable minority of nationalist/republicans who were “sort of okay” with the status quo in the North. This group fully supported the 1998 Good Friday agreement, supported devolution, and were pro-EU. Yes, this group still had Irish nationalist aspirations, but they were prepared to wait for a united Ireland. However, post the Brexit referendum, this group has now shifted and become much more assertively pro a united Ireland. Secondly (and similarly), the vast majority of the Alliance/Green/Others voting block (and, importantly, this is currently about 11 per cent of the voter base) have historically been in favour of the North remaining in the UK. But post the EU referendum, a section of this group has swung to the pro-united Ireland camp, mainly to ensure the North remains within the EU. Polls are never precisely right, but they’re never totally wrong either In addition, the number of Don’t Knows/Not Sures in this group has also grown significantly; moving from their original pro Northern Ireland in the UK position. However, all polls still show a border poll producing a majority in favour of the North remaining in the UK. But the margin is a lot closer than some might expect. On average, the polls show support of the North staying in the UK at around the early to mid-50 per cent (excluding non-voters/ Don’t Knows).
FrancieBrady wrote: » I agree with the writer of this piece that polls (particularly of aspirational things like a UI) can be very inaccurate both ways. But the trends are interesting and encouraging. The unknowns are interesting - what would happen if Scotland depart - if a Tory PM really is bitter about Unionists tying his/her hands (the recent lack of interest/care expressed by the rest of the UK would mean he/she could probably propose what they want for NI) - what would be proposed regarding outside support for a UI etc - and the nature of the type of Brexit we do get (I am more than convinced that NONE of the Brexit's on the table will be good for northern Ireland ultimately because the UK itself is hopelessly riven)https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/polls-suggest-gradual-shift-to-united-ireland-1.3645214
bob mcbob wrote: » This is interesting and not knowing much about it as I am Scottish (but with experience of indy ref), I have a question / observation. Assuming the border poll did happen. I understand how political parties in the North would line up but the critical part would be how parties in the Republic would react. Ultimately reunification will cost a lot of money. Would they campaign like Brexit (unicorns for all) or more reality driven i.e. short term pain for long term gain. Also would everyone in the republic be happy with this?
RobMc59 wrote: » I liked your suggestion a few weeks ago about the possibility of a self governing Ulster with maybe Donegal in the mix-I wonder if there would be any appetite for an Ulster alliance with an independent Scotland-they have historical ties and that may be a better fit than rule by Dublin.
Johnny Dogs wrote: » You want to effectively annex Donegal?
jm08 wrote: » All the parties in Republic support a UI, but more importantly, The Constitution states:Article 3 1. It is the firm will of the Irish Nation, in harmony and friendship, to unite all the people who share the territory of the island of Ireland, in all the diversity of their identities and traditions, recognising that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people, democratically expressed, in both jurisdictions in the island. Until then, the laws enacted by the Parliament established by this Constitution shall have the like area and extent of application as the laws enacted by the Parliament[2] that existed immediately before the coming into operation of this Constitution.
darem93 wrote: » One thing I've always wondered about a border poll. Would it be similar to the GFA referendum, in that people were voting on a finalised agreement between all parties? (bar the DUP of course who will of course drag their heels and just scream 'no, no, no'). Or would people be even willing to discuss the prospect of a UI unless the public had given them a mandate via referendum? I just think holding a referendum with no plan in place could be another Brexit style mess.
bob mcbob wrote: » Yes I understand the constitution but the reality of for example tax increases to fund reunification. I am sure some taxpayers down south may not be so happy. Could some parties be like Labour under Corbyn with Brexit i.e. for remain but not actually doing anything to promote it?
Dytalus wrote: » I agree. I think there's something to be said, however, that Unionist elements wouldn't engage in talks and legislative works before a referendum voted in favour of a UI in Northern Ireland. Sure why would they? Without the public support for a UI being stated in a referendum what reason would they have for engaging in something so fundamentally opposed to their stance on the matter? At least if NI votes in favour of UI then some might grimace and say "well there's a real chance this is happening now, let's engage in talks to try and get the best for our guys". But there would need to be a referendum in the Republic too, prior to unification happening. A compromise might be: hold the first referendum in NI to signal that talks between Stormont/Westminster/Dublin need to begin -y.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Not going to happen, as Unionists, not unexpectedly, will just refuse to talk. It will be talks between the two governments who are mandated to make the result of a poll happen.
FrancieBrady wrote: » Who do you envisage doing that? I don't think FF could hold the party together if they did. Could Labour...doubtful, but do they matter much in the scheme of things anymore? Seems to me they would cede whatever's left to SF if they didn't come out strong for a UI. Most likely it would be FG, pounding the Commonwealth beat and tipping the hat to monarchy etc. alá the John Briton wing. But again, are there all that many of that type left? I think Leo and his generation might be falling in love with the bounce they get from standing up to Tory centric Irish policy. That is not to say that 'costs and taxes' will be ignored, I just don't think they will be couched as prohibitive.
breatheme wrote: » Who's saying the Scottish would want Northern Ireland?
RobMc59 wrote: » They have more in common than any other proposed alliance or annexation -a lot of people in NI probably have more affinity with Scotland than Dublin and that would possibly be reciprocated.
Johnny Dogs wrote: » You want to effectively annex Donegal? I wouldn't imagine there'd be a huge appetite from Donegalian folk to leave the 26 counties.
RobMc59 wrote: » I was thinking that geographically and traditionally it's part of Ulster but obviously it was just a suggestion
