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Werewolf: HBO's Deadwood

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    #722
    Frank WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,749 ✭✭✭Frank WW


    Brendan WW wrote: »
    :confused: Frank? What I ever do to you?

    Ewan's I (half) understand I guess. Still wrong.

    Bold village.

    You didn't do anything to me, nobody has thus far that I am aware of. I believed Vernon when he said it was a mistake. I did have some doubts but that he was probably good. I've said I thought Des was good for a while because of the plan he suggested. You weren't happy with Orla being shot despite it resulting in a lynch that we might be able to learn something from, which is also something you wanted to happen. There couldn't have been a credible second lynch candidate because we were always going to lynch Orla is she was still alive. Yet, you were unhappy with the one way that we wouldn't all be voting for Orla. That may be because you were then worried that someone on your team might be lynched. Obviously not the case with Vernon, who definitely didn't need to be lynched as you suggest.


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    #723
    Gertrude WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 3,361 ✭✭✭Gertrude WW


    Mary WW wrote: »
    Must have been one hell of an important nrv given you offered to take a lynch ahead of him

    Anyone who is not a wolf is important if it means they live and the wolves don’t. Unless you’re a wolf then it’s the other way around.


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    #724
    Mary WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,752 ✭✭✭Mary WW


    Gertrude WW wrote: »
    Anyone who is not a wolf is important if it means they live and the wolves don’t. Unless you’re a wolf then it’s the other way around.

    So who was that other person you had mixed Wendy up with?


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    #725
    Brendan WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 3,802 ✭✭✭Brendan WW


    Frank WW wrote: »
    You didn't do anything to me, nobody has thus far that I am aware of. I believed Vernon when he said it was a mistake. I did have some doubts but that he was probably good. I've said I thought Des was good for a while because of the plan he suggested. You weren't happy with Orla being shot despite it resulting in a lynch that we might be able to learn something from, which is also something you wanted to happen. There couldn't have been a credible second lynch candidate because we were always going to lynch Orla is she was still alive. Yet, you were unhappy with the one way that we wouldn't all be voting for Orla. That may be because you were then worried that someone on your team might be lynched. Obviously not the case with Vernon, who definitely didn't need to be lynched as you suggest.

    On the Orla thing - why was she not shot prior to getting her kill in, that's what irks me tbh.
    Vig should have blasted her immediately rather than let her take a villager down on her way.

    Once that was done we were as well to lynch her. The whole point of trying to get another candidate up alongside her was to see how they would react.

    Doesn't matter anyways, end result is the same.


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    #726
    Phil WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭Phil WW


    Brendan WW wrote: »
    Once that was done we were as well to lynch her. The whole point of trying to get another candidate up alongside her was to see how they would react.

    Somehow, I doubt they would have reacted at all. Any candidate against Orla would have been 100% confident in surviving.


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    #727
    Phil WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭Phil WW


    The town being so quiet always worries me. Like, is it cause the wolves are super confident and thus sitting back, or are they worried and trying to formulate a plan.


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    #728
    Gertrude WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 3,361 ✭✭✭Gertrude WW


    Phil WW wrote: »
    The town being so quiet always worries me. Like, is it cause the wolves are super confident and thus sitting back, or are they worried and trying to formulate a plan.

    So the wolves know who each other are?

    Less village people is not good but it should make it easier to spot them. The problem is it took 6 votes to kick Vernon, they have 4 people. So in theory with strategic voting they could vote out a villager next.

    I wonder, is there any pattern we can take from the voting?


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    #729
    Desmond WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭Desmond WW


    If we presume that the first gold rush was a wash out (because Vernon left the door open for wolves to take spot two, let’s look at this afternoons gold rush:

    #1 Brendan
    #2 Conor
    #3 Vernon
    #4 ewan
    #5 Desmond

    4 wolves left to manipulate this list. So if wolves went 1-4 I couldn’t be that wolf. This means there may well be a wolf in 1-4. Vernon’s not a wolf so that leaves Brendan , Conor and ewan. I’d love to hear people’s theory on how I could manipulate a wolf win by voting for number 5?!!!!

    Vernon was good and the following voted for him:

    Vernon WW (6) - Wendy WW, Angus WW, Katie WW, Conor WW, Holly WW, Phil WW

    Vernon suspected
    Vernon WW wrote: »
    What are you talking about? I’ve argued my case all day. I’ve given 3 different names to explore too.

    Steve
    Holly
    Abigail

    As I said, take the easy option in me and be prepared to have to defend yourself tomorrow.

    How these are not the talking points is extremely odd.

    People don’t trust me yet they have little actual concrete stuff to throw at me.

    I’ve made great efforts to ruffle feathers and at least try a strategy to get people chatting , which is more then most. And yet I get accused of manipulating things when the majority are sitting on the sidelines doing very little to help.

    For all it’s flaws, Without my strategy we wouldn’t have any talking points on gold rush. Nobody has actually suggested any better way of at least having a strategy for gold rush where we can get something from it!


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    #730
    Angus WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 3,760 ✭✭✭Angus WW


    Gertrude WW wrote: »
    Anyone who is not a wolf is important if it means they live and the wolves don’t. Unless you’re a wolf then it’s the other way around.

    But then aren’t you equally as important?

    I can’t commit to either goldrush tomorrow guys. I’ll get on to throw in a number if I can but don’t be depending on me for it. After tomorrow, if I survive, I’ll be available pretty much all the time.


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    #731
    Gertrude WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 3,361 ✭✭✭Gertrude WW


    Angus WW wrote: »
    But then aren’t you equally as important?

    I can’t commit to either goldrush tomorrow guys. I’ll get on to throw in a number if I can but don’t be depending on me for it. After tomorrow, if I survive, I’ll be available pretty much all the time.


    Yes but some of you guys are taking this full on seriously. This is super fun for me but if I die then I guess I’ll sign up to the next one and so on :). Having said that I’d like to stay alive too.

    I don’t think Desmond is a wolf, just doesn’t make sense. He would have had more support from the other wolves, at least two of them and 1 pretending to be rogue, or support from all of the other 3 so 2 or 3.

    We need more data, it might make sense to be logical about this, put all posts so far in order and examine the interactions. Half my day tomorrow is interviewing so if some of them are poor and finish quickly I may have time to do that.


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    #732
    Ewan WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,409 ✭✭✭Ewan WW


    Holly WW wrote: »
    Was fairly obvious a wolf killed Eva no? I mean very obvious, she was a cleared villager, they took her out with their prize!

    None of the top 5 today can go in top 5 tomorrow in my opinion for gold rush

    Who then in the top 5 for both goldrushs tomorrow?

    I think we have established there is a wolf from today's top 5


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    #733
    Abigail WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,789 ✭✭✭Abigail WW


    Went for Des over Vern yesterday but I’d actually be happy to put day 1 in the rear view if there is new data we get that points elsewhere today. Gertie still confuses me though as I get that she’s trying to fly that noob flag but she was pretty adamant we needed Vern, so much so that I was expecting more than NRV.

    Suffice to say however that Vernon was almost certainly telling the truth about his messed up pm and that could explain the first goldrush wolf win, not as sure about the 2nd one though and how we should approach day 2s competition with it in mind


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    #734
    Tegan WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,273 ✭✭✭Tegan WW


    Morning all. Yesterday was a mess, losing 4 villagers but at least we got the SK so the death toll will drop.
    Gertie needs serious looking at. I believed Vern had made a mistake but couldn't be sure but Gertie's posts made me suspect a dynamic that clearly wasn't in play.
    I'm working again today but will try to get on when I can.


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    #735
    Frank WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,749 ✭✭✭Frank WW


    Brendan WW wrote: »
    On the Orla thing - why was she not shot prior to getting her kill in, that's what irks me tbh.
    Vig should have blasted her immediately rather than let her take a villager down on her way.

    Once that was done we were as well to lynch her. The whole point of trying to get another candidate up alongside her was to see how they would react.

    Doesn't matter anyways, end result is the same.

    That's what irks you? I haven't seen you mention it until now. It seems like now you're trying to switch to a different reason for being unhappy with it now that your first reason seems contrary to your lynch race idea. There was never going to be another candidate beside Orla for the lynch, so there would have been no reactions to get. You saw how much of a mess the goldrush became with people not showing up and the likes, yet you think we can coordinate a second lynch candidate on day one to go against a mod-confirmed serial killer.


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    #736
    Frank WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,749 ✭✭✭Frank WW


    Tegan WW wrote: »
    Morning all. Yesterday was a mess, losing 4 villagers but at least we got the SK so the death toll will drop.
    Gertie needs serious looking at. I believed Vern had made a mistake but couldn't be sure but Gertie's posts made me suspect a dynamic that clearly wasn't in play.
    I'm working again today but will try to get on when I can.

    Vernon is dead and was good so almost certainly did make a mistake.


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    #737
    Frank WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,749 ✭✭✭Frank WW


    Ewan WW wrote: »
    I'm thinking the posters with the most posts suspicious so Vernon Desmond and Brendan why not?
    Ewan WW wrote: »
    I'm still suspicious of Vernon, Desmond and Brendan as I believe top pickers in both goldrushs, top poster quantities too
    Ewan WW wrote: »
    #FFA1

    Brendan
    Desmond
    Vernon

    I do believe one of the above is a wolf, top posters plus in top numbers of both goldrushs, it might be stupid logic by me
    Ewan WW wrote: »
    I thought you were too Brendan, I still think wolf for you with maybe Desmond or Conor

    Time for a long shot theory. Ewan and Brendan on the same team. Ewan has mentioned Brendan, Desmond and Vernon a lot as his suspects and then voted for him when there was little chance of Brendan being lynched. I believe Desmond is good, and we know Vernon was good so I'm guessing this thing is a way of distancing teammates.


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    #738
    Phil WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 3,818 ✭✭✭Phil WW


    Frank WW wrote: »
    Time for a long shot theory. Ewan and Brendan on the same team. Ewan has mentioned Brendan, Desmond and Vernon a lot as his suspects and then voted for him when there was little chance of Brendan being lynched. I believe Desmond is good, and we know Vernon was good so I'm guessing this thing is a way of distancing teammates.

    Ewan is someone I'd not got much read on yesterday. I've still got massive suspicions of Brendan though, AND Desmond.
    Unlike yesterday, I'm in all day today so will be, hopefully, far more helpful.


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    #739
    Tegan WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,273 ✭✭✭Tegan WW


    Frank WW wrote: »
    Vernon is dead and was good so almost certainly did make a mistake.

    Yes I know. I was saying that Gertie's posts moved me from believing he'd made a mistake but being uncertain if I was right towards being fairly sure he had. His death and reveal showed me that the reason I had for being sure was wrong and so now I want to look closer at Gertie.


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    #740
    Frank WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,749 ✭✭✭Frank WW


    #1 - mary
    #2 - vernon (confirmed good), but didn't send pm
    #3 - desmond
    #4 - eva (confirmed good)
    #5 - conor

    Vernon not selecting number 2 means that either a wolf did, or mary is a wolf. I don't know much about Mary either way so not sure which is more likely there. The only way Mary wouldn't have won the prize then is if a wolf selected number 1 also. If a wolf did there you can almost guarantee that a different wolf chose number 2 and thus the wolves won.

    If on the off chance a wolf tied with Mary and then no wolf selected number 2 then 3/4/5 must be wolves because why would the wolves skip number 2 and hand the prize to Vernon. Given that Eva was good it can be assumed that this isn't the case. So we can safely say a wolf chose number 2. Even if Mary, Desmond and Conor were all wolves then it would have been a fourth wolf who selected number 2 so neither Desmond or Conor would have had to move up. The point of this is that neither Desmond nor Conor, if wolves needed to move up for a wolf to select numbers 1 and 2. This means that in my mind, Desmond and Conor can only be 1/2 of 2 wolves. Now that doesn't mean a huge amount but it rules them out of two potential wolf roles (doesn't rule them out of specific ones) but for them instead of it being possible they could be any four of the wolves they could only be two of them.


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    #741
    Abigail WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,789 ✭✭✭Abigail WW


    Too many people I don't have a very strong read on still, Ewan was mentioned and after his first few odd posts I don't really recall him in any strong way. That said day 2 is often when people have more to say. I'm liking being able to get a bit more involved myself and seeing more from Frank, Phil & Tegan now


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    #742
    Wendy WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 3,104 ✭✭✭Wendy WW


    The prize was blocked last night. I was thinking would that mean the wolves won the prize or would it mean that they stacked on a villagers number selection to prevent the villager from winning ?


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    #743
    Frank WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,749 ✭✭✭Frank WW


    Wendy WW wrote: »
    The prize was blocked last night. I was thinking would that mean the wolves won the prize or would it mean that they stacked on a villagers number selection to prevent the villager from winning ?

    My understanding is that if the wolves stacked on a villager number then the prize would just go to the next unique number. So for the prize to have been blocked it must have been the wolves winning twice, unless the first prize that the wolves won was a block on the next prize.


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    #744
    Frank WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,749 ✭✭✭Frank WW


    Phil WW wrote: »
    Right, this is based on an initial run-through of what I missed today. These aren't in any order either.

    #FFA1


    1. Brendan - Seemed against the idea of a vig shooting the outed SK, which worries me; it was going to be a lump on if he wasn't shot, and we would have had zero information from a lynch otherwise. I also tend to dislike when people moan AFTER something has happened. I also don't like that when Frank was compiling posts, Brendan compiled Ewans, AND then was also the one who engaged when I asked for a recap. There's a slight air of wanting to look like he's helping, without ACTUALLY helping. The multi-quote thing always throws up a flag for me when there's not an actual examination of the posts too, beyond "look at this fluff".


    2. Vernon - Admits to messing up the first by not voting for #2, and then is part of the group who win but don't win, so to speak. Him and Abi were also getting names mixed up in FFAs (Abi registered a red flag by screwing up her tag on her FFA too, not putting a traditional #FFA1 but a FFA #1, which I'd imagine will make it way harder to find her FFA as the game goes on).


    3. Desmond - Desmond TWICE pushed the idea that he was going out to the old picture show, and twice pushed the idea that anyone who looked his direction would be suspicious by default. Now, if he's good, I can 100% see why he'd want to let people know his thoughts. But I think there's a massive chance there too that a wolf would also push a defence like that too. Its also been said to me before that sometimes wolves will tend to over-explain their absences a bit more than villagers would.

    Other names that worry me a bit are Gert (pushing the "I'm a noob" card a little but hard) and Abi, but not enough to get into that top three currently.

    Not sure which way I'd vote yet though. Maybe Vernon, since his self-confessed screw up lines up very, very neatly with what looks to have happened.

    Phil, you had a go at Abigail for messing up the tags on her FFA. That's fine why didn't you quote her post and put the hashtag the right way around. That would have ensured that it would be found in a search of the hashtag. Strange that you would highlight such a potential issue and then not do something about it. One might think you're not actually that worried about it and just want a reason to suspect someone.


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    #745
    Abigail WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,789 ✭✭✭Abigail WW


    Frank WW wrote: »
    My understanding is that if the wolves stacked on a villager number then the prize would just go to the next unique number. So for the prize to have been blocked it must have been the wolves winning twice, unless the first prize that the wolves won was a block on the next prize.


    I hadn't considerd a block type prize but the rest is how I understand the game.



    Which judging by what you put below


    #1 - mary
    #2 - vernon (confirmed good), but didn't send pm
    #3 - desmond
    #4 - eva (confirmed good)
    #5 - conor


    Either Mary is a wolf
    A wolf picked 2 and lucked out that he didnt send the pm
    Des is a wolf


    Has to be one of those right?


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    #746
    Frank WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,749 ✭✭✭Frank WW


    Abigail's FFA given her 'mistake' in the hashtag. #FFA1
    Abigail WW wrote: »
    I've a bad feeling not many are going to do these, I hope I'm wrong

    FFA #1

    1.Angus

    Was originally happy reading he stepped in as cover for the first goldrush but then missent a PM supposidly that could explain the wolves getting the prize either be that real or a lie. He was then also one of the top number posters the 2nd time round when the wolves seemingly stopped a prize. Don't think I mentioned anything about Vernon here now, was getting them mixed up earlier.

    2. Des

    don't want to just focus on the talkative posters but having not put Angus on his FFA we could have teammates here. That said his FFA was just focus on low level posters to rustle them I think was how he put it which was where it seemed he wanted people to also focus. He was defensive moreso than most but now will not be here till after lynch when I guess he hopes people will focus elsewhere in his absence. He was also on the 1-5 list both times when the village got nothing and it's hard not to be suspicious of him

    3. Gertie admits she was weird and that it could get her killed but keeps being weird. Not worried about Gertie right now but more noteworthy than most it must be said. Brendan seems to talk some sense in comparison but was involved in the Gold Rushes. Similarily to Gertie's behavior Ewan's post about observing his prey stand out but maybe it's too obvious and thats to see reactions. Think im stretching for a number 3 at the moment but unless much changes would probably vote 1 or 2 even if I fewar there may be a quiet wolf or two I've nothing on at this point.


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    #747
    Tegan WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,273 ✭✭✭Tegan WW


    Frank WW wrote: »
    My understanding is that if the wolves stacked on a villager number then the prize would just go to the next unique number. So for the prize to have been blocked it must have been the wolves winning twice, unless the first prize that the wolves won was a block on the next prize.

    I don't think they could have won a block on the next prize because then who killed Eva.


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    #748
    Mary WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,752 ✭✭✭Mary WW


    Frank WW wrote: »
    #1 - mary
    #2 - vernon (confirmed good), but didn't send pm
    #3 - desmond
    #4 - eva (confirmed good)
    #5 - conor

    Vernon not selecting number 2 means that either a wolf did, or mary is a wolf. I don't know much about Mary either way so not sure which is more likely there. The only way Mary wouldn't have won the prize then is if a wolf selected number 1 also. If a wolf did there you can almost guarantee that a different wolf chose number 2 and thus the wolves won.

    If on the off chance a wolf tied with Mary and then no wolf selected number 2 then 3/4/5 must be wolves because why would the wolves skip number 2 and hand the prize to Vernon. Given that Eva was good it can be assumed that this isn't the case. So we can safely say a wolf chose number 2. Even if Mary, Desmond and Conor were all wolves then it would have been a fourth wolf who selected number 2 so neither Desmond or Conor would have had to move up. The point of this is that neither Desmond nor Conor, if wolves needed to move up for a wolf to select numbers 1 and 2. This means that in my mind, Desmond and Conor can only be 1/2 of 2 wolves. Now that doesn't mean a huge amount but it rules them out of two potential wolf roles (doesn't rule them out of specific ones) but for them instead of it being possible they could be any four of the wolves they could only be two of them.

    Not quite. If the wolves didn’t select 2 to block it then either im a wolf (I’m not) or des has to be since if they didn’t block 2 they’re unlikely to block 3 as a strategy. Vernon’s mistake means it’s pretty uncertain her though. I’m hoping seer took a peek at des (I’m also a viable candidate for that but it won’t give us anything useful)


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    #749
    Abigail WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,789 ✭✭✭Abigail WW


    Should be easily found if anyone needs to now anyway, thanks. Did anyone end up compiling the FFAs yesterday, don't think there were that many.


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    #750
    Frank WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,749 ✭✭✭Frank WW


    Abigail WW wrote: »
    I hadn't considerd a block type prize but the rest is how I understand the game.



    Which judging by what you put below






    Either Mary is a wolf
    A wolf picked 2 and lucked out that he didnt send the pm
    Des is a wolf


    Has to be one of those right?

    Yes I think one of those is what won the prize, but I don't think they are mutually exclusive. I think Desmond being the wolf is least likely. I think a wolf picking number is almost certain to have happened. That doesn't preclude either Mary or Desmond (or both) from also being wolves.


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    #751
    Mary WW
    Forum Games Player Posts: 2,752 ✭✭✭Mary WW


    Abigail WW wrote: »
    I hadn't considerd a block type prize but the rest is how I understand the game.



    Which judging by what you put below





    Either Mary is a wolf
    A wolf picked 2 and lucked out that he didnt send the pm
    Des is a wolf


    Has to be one of those right?

    Only in a case where Vernon didn’t make a mistake, which given he was nrv we can assume he was telling the truth


    Goldrush 2 on the other hand must have a wolf in 1-4


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