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Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    aidyhawse wrote: »
    I believe May would need a majority in HoC and a credible reason (although a HoC majority may provide that).

    Technically, she doesn't need legislation to revoke so she can ignore parliament.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    They agree to sit on Friday (which is not planned) and do exactly that - vote to revoke. May then sends a note to Brussels.

    Could May potentially ignore the vote? Basically can parliament mandate a PM do something?


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,811 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    UK political systems and politicians need major overhaul. I'd argue that revoking Brexit should be an option so the focus can be on the UK again.

    https://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/media/coverage/the-public-think-politics-is-broken-and-are-willing-to-entertain-radical
    Fifty-four percent of the public say Britain needs a strong leader who is willing to break the rules; and four in ten people think that many of the country’s problems could be dealt with more effectively if the government didn’t have to worry so much about votes in Parliament.

    Although some of the core indicators of political engagement – certainty to vote, and knowledge of, and interest, in politics - remain stable, pessimism about the country’s future combines worryingly with anti-system sentiment.

    Seventy-two per cent of the public say the system of governing needs ‘quite a lot’ or ‘a great deal’ of improvement. This measure has risen five points in a year and now stands at its highest level in the 15-year Audit series.

    Well over half the public are downbeat about the state of Britain. Fifty-six percent think Britain is in decline, six in ten people think our system of governing is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful, and two-thirds of us think there are no clear solutions to the big issues facing the country today.

    But people are not confident that our politicians and political parties are capable of dealing with the challenges the country faces.

    When asked whether the problem is the system of government or the people making the decisions not being up to the job, more people say the problem is the people (29%) than the system (15%). But more people think neither the system nor the people making the decisions are good enough (38%).

    Three in ten people still consider themselves at least a fairly strong supporter of a political party. But half the public think that the main parties and politicians do not care about people like them. And 75% of people think the main political parties are so divided within themselves they cannot serve the best interests of the country. Only three in ten people say they have confidence in MPs (34%) and political parties (29%) to act in the public interest, well below the confidence levels recorded for the military (74%), judges (69%) and civil servants (49%).

    When asked what kind of leadership and leaders they would prefer in the future, only marginally more people prefer experienced political parties and leaders who have been in power before (47%) to those with radical ideas for change who have not (43%).

    These Audit results paint a stark picture of public attitudes to our system of governing, and our politicians and parties. Unless something changes, and there is comprehensive reform of the culture and practice of representative politics, we are storing up some of the key ingredients of a potentially toxic recipe for the future of British politics.

    Twitter link - twitter.com/HansardSociety/status/1115031749141123072


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Could May potentially ignore the vote? Basically can parliament mandate a PM do something?

    May can decide to write a letter to the EU on Friday stating that she is revoking Article 50. She doesn't need parliament's permission.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1115216739464306689

    Meaningful vote 3 and counting. Democratic
    Potentially 2 votes of no confidence. Democratic
    Offering people a second vote on a vote nearly 3 years ago where people lied all the time and is an absolute nightmare . Undemocratic!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    May can decide to write a letter to the EU on Friday stating that she is revoking Article 50. She doesn't need parliament's permission.

    I know that . I'm asking can she ignore the will of parliament? So Friday parliament says revoke, can May say "No i won't do that"?


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    I know that . I'm asking can she ignore the will of parliament? So Friday parliament says revoke, can May say "No i won't do that"?

    Apologies. If she refuses, then she could be removed by a vote of no confidence and her replacement could revoke A50. That wouldn't happen in a day. An alternative would be new legislation to revoke but that would also take time. There is a third way but it's legally dodgy. This is a good article on the options. Anyway, May will resign before she revokes.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,405 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I know that . I'm asking can she ignore the will of parliament? So Friday parliament says revoke, can May say "No i won't do that"?

    Yvette Cooper bill, European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 5) Bill 2017-19, if it becomes law, which should happen today, will instruct the Gov to delay leaving if they do not have a deal. So if the HoC votes to stop a no deal on Thursday or Friday, then the UK will not leave the UK at 11 pm on Friday.

    If the UK are not given an extension on Wed 10th, then the only option is Revoke Art 50.

    The above bill can be amended today by the HoL today, but only likely to make it more robust. It will return to the HoC for third reading and will then go for Royal Assent, both are automatic (usually). It then becomes a law. In the result of a tie vote in the HoC, the speaker votes in favour.

    If that happens, the HoC will truly have taken back control from the Gov, so the Gov should then resign and call a GE for May 23rd, to be held the same day as the EUP elections.

    Oh the irony of 'taking back control'


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    Apologies. If she refuses, then she could be removed by a vote of no confidence and her replacement could revoke A50. That wouldn't happen in a day. An alternative would be new legislation to revoke but that would also take time. There is a third way but it's legally dodgy. This is a good article on the options. Anyway, May will resign before she revokes.

    Thanks for that. Great link . It's a complete mess if she refuses or resigns. The EU would have to impose a unilateral extension and even that is messy.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 24,399 Mod ✭✭✭✭robindch


    hill16bhoy wrote: »
    I feel like every day following the news now is like watching a real life episode of Brass Eye.
    On that topic, the BBC recently did a series of five twenty-minute programs entitled "The Puppet Master". The series looks into a Russian guy named Vladislav Surkov, friend of Putin, who did much to poison public debate and discussion, firstly in Russia, then more widely afield:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p074j379


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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,393 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Mod: No more satire links please. A post has been deleted.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭Infini


    Laois_Man wrote: »
    Here's my new favorite HoC speech - witah all the best points we constantly make on this thread

    Every Brexiteer should be forced to watch it!

    https://twitter.com/dk3113r/status/1114953939634589696

    Fair damn ball to him for saying the truth of what Brexit really is. At least some have the integrity and the honesty to call out the failures of westminster and the problems as they are not deflect and hide from them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 67,045 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Barnier very strident again on the Backstop being the only mechanism on the table, at the press conference.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    Barnier very strident again on the Backstop being the only mechanism on the table, at the press conference.

    Yes, he indicated that a Customs Union would be discussed in the next phase and could be achieved very quickly

    I'm not sure how Labour's apparent demands of CU AGREEMENT NOW can be accommodated though - if that's what they are wanting!

    https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1115268946041634817


  • Registered Users Posts: 36 aidyhawse


    Laois_Man wrote: »
    Yes, he indicated that a Customs Union would be discussed in the next phase and could be achieved very quickly

    I'm not sure how Labour's apparent demands of CU AGREEMENT NOW can be accommodated though - if that's what they are wanting!

    https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1115268946041634817

    A CU could be legislated in the UK, which would tie the hands of the next PM to pursue that with the EU in the transition period negotiations. This will probably need changes to the political declarations, which the EU have said they are willing to amend.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    aidyhawse wrote: »
    A CU could be legislated in the UK, which would tie the hands of the next PM to pursue that with the EU in the transition period negotiations. This will probably need changes to the political declarations, which the EU have said they are willing to amend.

    Is there enough time to get that legislation and the WA passed in the UK by Friday?

    If not, are the EU expected to agree to an extension on a proposal or promise that the HoC will vote these thru....after everything that has happened?

    That press conference mentions the contents of May's letter the other day. Has that ever been made public? What could she possibly be proposing in it as a plan?

    All while the right-wing UK press continue the pretense that the EU are panicking

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1111366/Brexit-news-UK-EU-no-deal-latest-Leo-Varadkar-Michel-Barnier-Ireland


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,405 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    aidyhawse wrote: »
    A CU could be legislated in the UK, which would tie the hands of the next PM to pursue that with the EU in the transition period negotiations. This will probably need changes to the political declarations, which the EU have said they are willing to amend.

    I believe that the EU have already said they would be willing to open the WA to include it. They are willing to consider any softer WA but not any hardening.

    Backstop - in always, and forever - unless and until ......

    Customs Union - in if they want.

    Single Market - in if they want.

    If they want to tie the UK Gov hands, they will. They read and listen to everything.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,175 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    May can decide to write a letter to the EU on Friday stating that she is revoking Article 50. She doesn't need parliament's permission.
    But does that reflect the ECJ decision? Afaik, it stated that it could be revoked according to the country's constitutional provisions. And since the Gina Miller case established that parliament had to approve the A50 notification, does it not then also mean that parliament has to approve its revocation?


  • Registered Users Posts: 883 ✭✭✭Scoondal


    Ireland needs to forget about our close relationship with UK. We have enough problems to sort out here without wasting more time on Brexit. The EU too has a lot of work to do on its agenda for EU reform.
    For too long, the UK has held this country back because Ireland is committed to EU principles but the UK never was.
    The Good Friday agreement is an internationally recognised peace agreement. It must be upheld. Therefore, the EU should let UK leave EU on Friday and tell them that the Good Friday agreement is absolutely binding and will remain in place in its entirety.
    I feel that the EU should not be weak by giving another extension to Brexit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    Customs Union - in if they want.

    It's not THE Customs Union that we are in

    What they want is A Customs Union - a new version of the existing one, especially for them.

    It would be economic suicide for them to stay as members of the existing customs union without being EU members. That would force them to allow non-EU countries to have access to the UK market on whatever trade deals the EU has with those countries, but the outside countries wouldn't have to reciprocate to the UK. It would be ludicrous!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 883 ✭✭✭Scoondal


    If UK leaves EU on Friday, they will be breaking the Good Friday Agreement. Then Ireland can go to UN.
    Simply, Mrs May needs to revoke Article 50.
    EU should now take a hardline with UK. No more extensions.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Scoondal wrote: »
    If UK leaves EU on Friday, they will be breaking the Good Friday Agreement. Then Ireland can go to UN.
    Simply, Mrs May needs to revoke Article 50.
    EU should now take a hardline with UK. No more extensions.
    What's the UN going to do? Issue another resolution to be ignored?

    This problem can only be solved through the EU. Only the EU can really exert the pressure required to see the border stays invisible.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,289 ✭✭✭dresden8


    Yvette Cooper bill, European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 5) Bill 2017-19, if it becomes law, which should happen today, will instruct the Gov to delay leaving if they do not have a deal. So if the HoC votes to stop a no deal on Thursday or Friday, then the UK will not leave the UK at 11 pm on Friday.

    If the UK are not given an extension on Wed 10th, then the only option is Revoke Art 50.

    The above bill can be amended today by the HoL today, but only likely to make it more robust. It will return to the HoC for third reading and will then go for Royal Assent, both are automatic (usually). It then becomes a law. In the result of a tie vote in the HoC, the speaker votes in favour.

    If that happens, the HoC will truly have taken back control from the Gov, so the Gov should then resign and call a GE for May 23rd, to be held the same day as the EUP elections.

    Oh the irony of 'taking back control'

    Technically the government can "advise" ie instruct the queen to withhold royal assent, pitting parliament against the crown.

    Which could be interesting as Brexit could end up bringing down the monarchy.

    What a sh1tshow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 883 ✭✭✭Scoondal


    murphaph wrote: »
    What's the UN going to do? Issue another resolution to be ignored?

    This problem can only be solved through the EU. Only the EU can really exert the pressure required to see the border stays invisible.

    If a country takes actions that breaks an internationally recognised peace agreement, then the UN can impose sanctions on such a country. Either that or Mrs. May revokes article 50.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,811 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Laois_Man wrote: »
    It's not THE Customs Union that we are in

    What they want is A Customs Union - a new version of the existing one, especially for them.

    It would be economic suicide for them to stay as members of the existing customs union without being EU members. That would force them to allow non-EU countries to have access to the UK market on whatever trade deals the EU has with those countries, but the outside countries wouldn't have to reciprocate to the UK. It would be ludicrous!
    It's not like the off-the-shelf partial customs union deals of Turkey or Norway as the UK is a nett importer of Food, Fuel and Raw Materials.

    So what sort of cherry picked I can't believe it's not a customs union do they want ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    Scoondal wrote: »
    If a country takes actions that breaks an internationally recognised peace agreement, then the UN can impose sanctions on such a country. Either that or Mrs. May revokes article 50.

    Hypothetically - there'd be several years of legal arguing that the GFA has been broken - dragged out for as long as possible

    Meanwhile our Agri-meat and dairy sector will have gone bust.

    Hypothetical because if they do leave on Friday with no deal, you would expect the UK will have decided to play ball before this year is out.
    It's not like the off-the-shelf partial customs union deals of Turkey or Norway as the UK is a nett importer of Food, Fuel and Raw Materials.

    So what sort of cherry picked I can't believe it's not a customs union do they want ?

    Fek knows!!! The Corbyn statements on it have been so vague, I'm not sure he knows himself! In fact, I am certain he doesn't.


  • Registered Users Posts: 35,726 ✭✭✭✭BorneTobyWilde


    I think we all know there has to be a deal as it's what the people voted for. To revoke would be very dangerous, soft Brexit is the answer and one within May's grasp if she would just compromise.
    They voted out so it means the will lose so many of the privileges of being part of the EU, but they can't leave with a No Deal, so a deal that keeps them in customs union is the compromise.
    They'll end up with none of the privileges of being part of the EU, while remaining in the customs union.
    Makes no sense but that's what they were hoodwinked into voting for, 350m for the NHS or Remain. I'd have preferred the 350M too, we all know it was a lie now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,057 ✭✭✭Mr.Wemmick


    They must know by now, all roads lead back to the EU.. but not before they've wasted/ cost the country billions and caused very expensive headaches for Ireland and Europe. Infuriating.


  • Registered Users Posts: 883 ✭✭✭Scoondal


    I think we all know there has to be a deal as it's what the people voted for. To revoke would be very dangerous, soft Brexit is the answer and one within May's grasp if she would just compromise.
    They voted out so it means the will lose so many of the privileges of being part of the EU, but they can't leave with a No Deal, so a deal that keeps them in customs union is the compromise.
    They'll end up with none of the privileges of being part of the EU, while remaining in the customs union.
    Makes no sense but that's what they were hoodwinked into voting for, 350m for the NHS or Remain. I'd have preferred the 350M too, we all know it was a lie now.

    I don't care about what UK people voted for. That's their own business.
    UK triggered article 50 and they couldn't carry it out without an extension. They should revoke article 50 because UK government is unable to do it at this time. This is not a problem created by EU. No more extensions. We need to be hardline with the UK government to get them to DO something. There should be no talk of " flexi-extensions".


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,388 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    So anyone know what’s goung to happen before Friday?!


This discussion has been closed.
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