Longshot Value Aintree & Punchestown

longshotvalue · 26-03-2019 8:46pm #1

Grand National

I’ve had Valseur Lido in mind for this race all year, since re watching last year’s race and realizing how well he ran. He travelled as well as anything to the 2nd last but didn’t stay on the heavy ground with a big weight. He hasn’t looked great this year but to my eye has been gradually improving each time. His best run was in the national trial behind Rathvinden. He then went to Cheltenham for the Brown Advisory, which is never going to be far enough. He travelled well without ever being in the race and was actually beginning to stay on when a big mistake 3 out finished any small chance he had.
He has dropped a huge 12lbs since his run in the national last year and I just can’t get it out of my head that on seeing that run last year he will surely be ready for a big run. The more I watch it the more I think you’d have to try and get him here of a good mark for a shot, given he isn’t really going to win anymore grade 1s.
Anyway he is 100/1 with 6 places with paddy power and 100/1 5 places ¼ place with bet365, and I’d be knocking them over at those prices. In my view if he avoids carnage on the first circuit we’ll be right in the firing line 3 out and that’s all you can ask of a 100/1 Shot.

3 Points EW NRNB 100/1 6 places paddy Power or 5 places Bet365 ¼ place.

The Jman · 27-03-2019 7:28pm

He's into 66/1 now, a nice few of us must have jumped on this tip ðŸ˜‚

longshotvalue · 27-03-2019 10:35pm

The Jman wrote: »

He's into 66/1 now, a nice few of us must have jumped on this tip &#55357;&#56834;

Yeah Paddy were the first to cave in.

There will be another change when bet365 have the Free EW on the national as they always do.

longshotvalue · 28-03-2019 8:31am

Dubai Turf Saturday

I Can fly nearly did it for us last year at 66/1 behind Roaring Lion, and that looks the best form here. She's had a run and is up against some possibly overrated horses here. Zero chance she goes of 12/1 more like 6s.

2 Points win 12/1 Gen

RivetingRoger · 28-03-2019 12:41pm

Took a bit of the 66/1 earlier
Cheers Aido
Boyles 1/4 of the odds but only 4 places

longshotvalue · 29-03-2019 8:42pm

Friday Night Longshot
8:15 @DundalkStadium

Seanie ran a lot better last time and in this race of this mark he can get involved here with a decent draw. 4 places looks very good value

1 Point EW 28/1 4 places VC 25/1 sky unibet boyles

prettyboy81 · 29-03-2019 9:18pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Friday Night Longshot
8:15 @DundalkStadium

Seanie ran a lot better last time and in this race of this mark he can get involved here with a decent draw. 4 places looks very good value

1 Point EW 28/1 4 places VC 25/1 sky unibet boyles

Went out like a light when they made the home turn.

longshotvalue · 02-04-2019 9:45am

aidankkk wrote: »

Grand National

I’ve had Valseur Lido in mind for this race all year, since re watching last year’s race and realizing how well he ran. He travelled as well as anything to the 2nd last but didn’t stay on the heavy ground with a big weight. He hasn’t looked great this year but to my eye has been gradually improving each time. His best run was in the national trial behind Rathvinden. He then went to Cheltenham for the Brown Advisory, which is never going to be far enough. He travelled well without ever being in the race and was actually beginning to stay on when a big mistake 3 out finished any small chance he had.
He has dropped a huge 12lbs since his run in the national last year and I just can’t get it out of my head that on seeing that run last year he will surely be ready for a big run. The more I watch it the more I think you’d have to try and get him here of a good mark for a shot, given he isn’t really going to win anymore grade 1s.
Anyway he is 100/1 with 6 places with paddy power and 100/1 5 places ¼ place with bet365, and I’d be knocking them over at those prices. In my view if he avoids carnage on the first circuit we’ll be right in the firing line 3 out and that’s all you can ask of a 100/1 Shot.
3 Points EW NRNB 100/1 6 places paddy Power or 5 places Bet365 ¼ place.

Certainly in the race anyway. Rediculous amount of confidence that its the best 100/1 shot ive seen. Just has to beat 39 other horses jump around and avoid other fallers etc. :rolleyes:

Brock Turnpike · 02-04-2019 2:53pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Certainly in the race anyway. Rediculous amount of confidence that its the best 100/1 shot ive seen. Just has to beat 39 other horses jump around and avoid other fallers etc. :rolleyes:

My brother has always had a soft spot for this horse. Because of that, I've watched it over the last few years and I'm very happy to follow your tip and part with a few quid.

longshotvalue · 02-04-2019 6:10pm

Aintree Hurdle
Paddy Power and Betfair made a decent error pricing this up earlier when they went 20/1 Verdana Blue. I think she has a great chance here. The ground and track will be far more to her liking and with most of the others having had a very tough race a few weeks ago she’ll outrun those odds. Even though she ran in the champion hurdle, Davy spoke after the race and said he was easy on her in that ground.
2 Points EW 16/1 Betfair, Paddy

STB. · 02-04-2019 7:57pm

@ aidankkk

Your ante post pick for the National has been mine for quite some time. The forgotten horse. Cannot believe it has got in off 10/6. Rachel rides....

Francie Barrett · 02-04-2019 8:18pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Aintree Hurdle
Paddy Power and Betfair made a decent error pricing this up earlier when they went 20/1 Verdana Blue. I think she has a great chance here. The ground and track will be far more to her liking and with most of the others having had a very tough race a few weeks ago she’ll outrun those odds. Even though she ran in the champion hurdle, Davy spoke after the race and said he was easy on her in that ground.
2 Points EW 16/1 Betfair, Paddy

Yes, yes, yes! This is the best bet of the Aintree festival. After everything finished in an absolute heap at Cheltenham, Verdana Blue should be much shorter on a track with conditions that will suit it perfectly.

cruais · 02-04-2019 9:01pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Yes, yes, yes! This is the best bet of the Aintree festival. After everything finished in an absolute heap at Cheltenham, Verdana Blue should be much shorter on a track with conditions that will suit it perfectly.

Is this 1525 on 4th? I can't find it at all!

Widdensushi · 02-04-2019 9:12pm

cruais wrote: »

Is this 1525 on 4th? I can't find it at all!

on pp it's moved from future to meeting and then Thursday, strange as they only have two races moved

cruais · 02-04-2019 9:18pm

Widdensushi wrote: »

on pp it's moved from future to meeting and then Thursday, strange as they only have two races moved

Thank you! Just got it! Was driving me crazy trying to find it

longshotvalue · 04-04-2019 7:41am

4:05 Aintree

Some of Coastal Tiep’s form stands out here for a horse priced up at 66/1. I’d be hopeful that this trip will suit him and if he can improve on his decent run last time out he could be a factor here. He is only 7 and on ratings alone he shouldn’t be too far away.

1 Point EW 66/1 5 places paddy/lads

Lads actually boosted it to 80/1:eek:

cruais · 04-04-2019 4:18pm

aidankkk wrote: »

4:05 Aintree

Some of Coastal Tiep’s form stands out here for a horse priced up at 66/1. I’d be hopeful that this trip will suit him and if he can improve on his decent run last time out he could be a factor here. He is only 7 and on ratings alone he shouldn’t be too far away.

1 Point EW 66/1 5 places paddy/lads

Lads actually boosted it to 80/1:eek:

Great shout! Finally a few bob in the kitty for today!

The Jman · 04-04-2019 4:20pm

I love how my gambling life goes, back a loser in the first four races and then Aidan comes to my rescue with an 80/1 place!!

D.Q · 04-04-2019 4:41pm

20e e/w on Valseur Lido @100s
In Aidan we trust

akelly02 · 04-04-2019 6:08pm

Is the soft ground against him lads

longshotvalue · 04-04-2019 6:14pm

akelly02 wrote: »

Is the soft ground against him lads

Soft will be fine, but heavy wouldn't be great id imagine

longshotvalue · 05-04-2019 7:39am

4:05 Aintree

BigMartre strikes me as the kind of horse that could be well suited to this race. He is a prominent racer who could get into a rhythm near the front and be involved in the finish. If he can get back to last year’s form 40/1 should look big
1 Point EW 40/1 sky/lads/paddy

longshotvalue · 05-04-2019 7:52am

1:45 Aintree

Going with two 33/1 shots here with soft ground form running of a good mark. Mount Mews has been a disappointment over fences but is better than a 137 rated hurdler and could recover form here. Point of Principle looks interesting with a 7lbs claimer on today. The Stable are in form, and he has some form as a novice that give us hope at a big price.

1 Point EW Mount Mews 6places sky 5 elsewhere
1 point EW Point of Principle 6places sky 5 elsewhere

premierloco · 05-04-2019 9:34am

Will Hill paying 7 places on 1.45pm so might be worth using them for Point of Principle bet as tis 33/1 with them. Mount Mews only 22/1 with them though.

The Mig · 05-04-2019 1:53pm

Unlucky Aido

Daraa · 05-04-2019 1:53pm

aidankkk wrote: »

1:45 Aintree

Going with two 33/1 shots here with soft ground form running of a good mark. Mount Mews has been a disappointment over fences but is better than a 137 rated hurdler and could recover form here. Point of Principle looks interesting with a 7lbs claimer on today. The Stable are in form, and he has some form as a novice that give us hope at a big price.

1 Point EW Mount Mews 6places sky 5 elsewhere
1 point EW Point of Principle 6places sky 5 elsewhere

Jayus. So close for PoP. Great picking!

longshotvalue · 05-04-2019 7:10pm

1:45 Aintree

Burbank looks a typical Aintree horse. He has had a very light season, and in both runs showed some encouraging signs. He has looked like a step up in trip will suit and a return to form puts him a fair few pounds well in here.

1 Point EW 28/1 5 places Lads 25/1 elsewhere

robbiezero · 05-04-2019 7:21pm

aidankkk wrote: »

1:45 Aintree

Burbank looks a typical Aintree horse. He has had a very light season, and in both runs showed some encouraging signs. He has looked like a step up in trip will suit and a return to form puts him a fair few pounds well in here.

1 Point EW 28/1 5 places Lads 25/1 elsewhere

Thanks.
Skybet paying 6 places by the looks of it.

longshotvalue · 05-04-2019 7:25pm

4:20
Some Buckle sticks out here after a reasonable run at Cheltenham after a long break. He is well able to get competitive of this mark and if he is on a going day 50/1 is going to look big.
1 Point EW 50/1 5 places paddy/betfair

Justin10 · 05-04-2019 8:14pm

Any joy with the podcast?
Cheers

longshotvalue · 05-04-2019 8:17pm

Rochey18 wrote: »

Any joy with the podcast?
Cheers

No The Host lives in Melbourne, and we couldn't get it together midweek with the time difference.

Longshot Value Aintree & Punchestown

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