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Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • #5972
    BobbyBobberson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭BobbyBobberson


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    You're looking at shortages; you're looking at job losses; you're looking at business closures.

    Yup. If i remember correctly Tony Connelly's book referred to mushroom closures post referendum result in the Republic simply due to a drop in the pound.


  • #5973
    gormdubhgorm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,434 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    BobbyBobberson wrote: »
    Exactly. Do we honestly think that MP's would have voted the same if Sinn Fein had been there?

    There is no way that the Conservative and Unionist Party propped up by the Democratic Unionist Party would have allowed Sinn Fein to dictate the UK's exit from the EU.

    If Sinn Fein REALLY wanted to make a difference they would go through the motions of taking the oath of allegiance while crossing thier fingers.
    But no they want to do nothing even in Stormont and pretend to really want an Irish language act.
    I think Sinn Fein really missed a trick as regards Brexit they could have entered the commons. Then they could be as obstructionist as they like.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • #5974
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 27,791 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    lawred2 wrote: »
    Yeah and it also offers the exact opposite
    No, it doesn't. The only possible outcomes are the two options in the referendum, which would be (a) Remain, or (b) softer brexit than May's.


  • #5975
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,358 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Barnier this morning confirming what everyone suspects. Even in no deal from the UK comes looking for a trade deal the same issues will be waiting....
    [After no-deal] there won’t be many months passing before the UK will start asking for negotiations on a free trade agreement or other issues, like transport.

    The topics of Brexit will still be there - Ireland, the financial resolution, the legal obligations of the UK, the issues of citizens and citizens’ rights. These are questions we will put again and again.

    If there is no deal and the UK wants to discuss trade or other subjects, we will put the same subjects back on the table.


  • #5976
    Tell me how
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 23,168 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    There is an interesting programme on a key part of all this on BBC 4 tomorrow night at 21:00

    Link

    https://twitter.com/earlofantrim17/status/1112847617946476545


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  • #5977
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 27,791 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Where is the confidence that Remain would even be on the ballot?

    It is likely that a confirmatory ref wil be tagged on to MV4 and it will get passed, but it will have to be quite descriptive to avoid TM simply making it WA or No Deal. Sure the Mp's will complain, but at this stage TM will be offering this as the only alternative to No Deal. Vote for TM deal to at least increase the possibility to avoid No deal, and with it get a longer extension from the EU.

    TM has never shown any inclination to have any thoughts about Remain. None. But if they try to remove No deal from the MV4 motion (thus WA or remain) then all those in ERG etc will vote against it anyway.
    If parliament can dictate one of the options on the ballot, it can dictate the other. You are correct that Parliament's decision would have to be very prescriptive, but I think at this stage Parliament understands that very well.

    There's a weakness with the indicative vote process, which is that it's not binding. No matter what Parliament approves in an indicative vote, May can simply decline to go to the EU and ask for a long extension to implement it. And, if May does that, as far as I can see it's game over.

    So everything crucially depends on May not regarding no-deal as an acceptable outcome.

    If she regards it as an acceptable outcome, then it's game over even now; regardless of the outcome of the indicative vote process, May will ignore it and no-deal will ensue.

    If she doesn't, then if May has to choose between:

    - (a) go to the EU and ask for an extension to implement a plan approved by Parliament, which is May's WA plus a political declaration oriented towards a customs union or single market or both, coupled with a confirmatory referendum, or

    - (b) no-deal

    she'll choose (a).


  • #5978
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,789 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    No, it doesn't. The only possible outcomes are the two options in the referendum, which would be (a) Remain, or (b) softer brexit than May's.

    Say what now?

    I obviously missed where the options on this confirmatory referendum were already defined...

    If those are the options then it's no wonder Tories are so concerned..


  • #5979
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,789 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Tell me how wrote: »
    There is an interesting programme on a key part of all this on BBC 4 tomorrow night at 21:00

    Link

    https://twitter.com/earlofantrim17/status/1112847617946476545

    I expect that to have a certain leaning towards one section of NI society


  • #5980
    looksee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 30,032 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    Sinn Fein person (I was driving and can't recall who it was) being interviewed on RTE yesterday said that having a hard border would be 'dangerous'. It sounded more like a threat than an opinion, but it wasn't clear who was being threatened.


  • #5981
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 27,791 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    lawred2 wrote: »
    Say what now?

    I obviously missed where the options on this confirmatory referendum were already defined...

    If those are the options then it's no wonder Tories are so concerned..
    They're not already defined. I'm hypothesising that the outcome of the indicative vote process could be aproval for:

    - May's WA plus a revised and softer Pol Dec, conditional on

    - approval of this package in a binary referendum in which the other option would be Remain.

    As already pointed out, there are risks for both Labour and the SNP in agreeing to this, and both would have to be willing to compromise. The SNP might end up with Brexit, which they don't want, on terms which fail to preserve FoM, which they also don't want. The Labour party might end up with no Brexit, whcih they don't want.

    But they're both opposition parties, and they have an opportunity to take control here, humiliating and fracturing the Tories and getting at least a sporting chance of the Brexit outcome they want, and the certainty of avoiding no-deal which they both very much don't want, so that's gotta be attractive.


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  • #5982
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,399 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Tell me how wrote: »
    There is an interesting programme on a key part of all this on BBC 4 tomorrow night at 21:00

    Link

    https://twitter.com/earlofantrim17/status/1112847617946476545

    It was on last week too, it's pretty decent, albeit doesn't go into a massive amount of detail and fine print, but that's not what the program is about.


  • #5983
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 74,556 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    looksee wrote: »
    Sinn Fein person (I was driving and can't recall who it was) being interviewed on RTE yesterday said that having a hard border would be 'dangerous'. It sounded more like a threat than an opinion, but it wasn't clear who was being threatened.

    SF made a threat?

    Where is the threat in repeating what the PSNI say and many other commentators and stakeholders say as well - are they 'threatening' something too?


  • #5984
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    looksee wrote: »
    Sinn Fein person (I was driving and can't recall who it was) being interviewed on RTE yesterday said that having a hard border would be 'dangerous'. It sounded more like a threat than an opinion, but it wasn't clear who was being threatened.

    This says more about you than the SF person. Numerous people for across the entire political spectrum have indicated that a hard border could become dangerous to those who'd have to enforce it.


  • #5985
    Shelga
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,054 ✭✭✭Shelga


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    If parliament can dictate one of the options on the ballot, it can dictate the other. You are correct that Parliament's decision would have to be very prescriptive, but I think at this stage Parliament understands that very well.

    There's a weakness with the indicative vote process, which is that it's not binding. No matter what Parliament approves in an indicative vote, May can simply decline to go to the EU and ask for a long extension to implement it. And, if May does that, as far as I can see it's game over.

    So everything crucially depends on May not regarding no-deal as an acceptable outcome.

    If she regards it as an acceptable outcome, then it's game over even now; regardless of the outcome of the indicative vote process, May will ignore it and no-deal will ensue.

    If she doesn't, then if May has to choose between:

    - (a) go to the EU and ask for an extension to implement a plan approved by Parliament, which is May's WA plus a political declaration oriented towards a customs union or single market or both, coupled with a confirmatory referendum, or

    - (b) no-deal

    she'll choose (a).

    You think May will choose No Deal over a long extension to facilitate something else?

    That’s terrifying. Incredible times we are living through.


  • #5986
    woohoo!!!
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 801 ✭✭✭woohoo!!!


    gormdubhgorm wrote: »
    BobbyBobberson wrote: »
    Exactly. Do we honestly think that MP's would have voted the same if Sinn Fein had been there?

    There is no way that the Conservative and Unionist Party propped up by the Democratic Unionist Party would have allowed Sinn Fein to dictate the UK's exit from the EU.

    If Sinn Fein REALLY wanted to make a difference they would go through the motions of taking the oath of allegiance while crossing thier fingers.
    But no they want to do nothing even in Stormont and pretend to really want an Irish language act.
    I think Sinn Fein really missed a trick as regards Brexit they could have entered the commons. Then they could be as obstructionist as they like.
    Do you have any idea about how northern nationalists feel about Westminster? They're not in the least bit surprised by how all this is turning out. They are done with Westminster and will not be dictated to by the likes of the DUP over Stormont. They're looking to Dublin and Brussels to advance their interests.

    But the most salient point is, SF entering HoC will be a propaganda coup to DUP, ERG and the red tops, that Corbyn et al are siding with IRA murderers this ending any notion of a softer Brexit.

    The blame for the mess lies entirely with the tories and the DUP.


  • #5987
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,630 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Posts deleted. Serious discussion only please.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #5988
    First Up
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,823 ✭✭✭✭First Up


    mikep wrote:
    Thinking about the hard border, I heard someone from Dublin port on the radio saying they had infrastructure in place for inspections etc including space for extra storage if required. One can assume that the same is happening in Cork and Rosslare.

    The Irish ports serving EU ports are well set up. Nothing will get on a ferry to the EU unless it is EU country of origin compliant. Anything that isn't will be processed as an Import into the EU before it is allowed on.

    Northern Irish freight can continue to use Dublin, Rosslare and Cork ports to access the continent but it will be processed seperately. A lorry park is being opened near Dublin airport as part of this.

    There may be some slippage for local traffic around the Irish border but the integrity of the Single Market will be hermetically sealed.


  • #5989
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Oliver Letwin now "90% certain" there will be a No Deal exit. Has given up on any more indicative votes. He's either scaremongering or accepting what he sees as the inevitable.


  • #5990
    Russman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,996 ✭✭✭Russman


    I really don't think we'll see a return to much violence tbh.
    I honestly think that since probably 9/11 that terrorism for political aims is a bit of a busted flush (ISIS aside, that's a different issue altogether). Its just soooo 1980s. The tolerance just isn't there in the broader population that they need to hide in.
    Plus with modern communication and surveillance, guys would be picked up and whisked off before the even knew what was happening and people are less concerned nowadays if terrorists are treated "harshly" than they might have been in the past.
    You'll get the odd headbanger I'm sure, but I just don't see a wholesale return to the bad old days.

    If its handled correctly and cleverly, it'll only need to be a border for the length of time it takes the UK to come to their senses, and I'm sure with the right bureaucracy and planning/tendering requirements etc we could easily string it out for a few months before any infrastructure would go up.


  • #5991
    gormdubhgorm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,434 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    woohoo!!! wrote: »
    Do you have any idea about how northern nationalists feel about Westminster? They're not in the least bit surprised by how all this is turning out. They are done with Westminster and will not be dictated to by the likes of the DUP over Stormont. They're looking to Dublin and Brussels to advance their interests.

    But the most salient point is, SF entering HoC will be a propaganda coup to DUP, ERG and the red tops, that Corbyn et al are siding with IRA murderers this ending any notion of a softer Brexit.

    The blame for the mess lies entirely with the tories and the DUP.

    Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.
    It would only be a 'propaganda coup' for a while real business would be able to begin then.
    Sinn Fein should at least consider going to the commons. They might lose some core vote but gain new voters.
    That would be real leadership. Sinn Fein are as much to blame for Brexit as the Conservatives May/Cameron/Rees-Mogg et al - Labour - Corbyn and his wishy washy half hearted remain campaign. The DUP -Arelene etc.

    But Sinn Fein much perfer being the hurlers in the ditch in the dail/stormont/HOC. They are only opoosition in one and are not in the other two at the moment.
    Sinn Fein are as much to blame as the others for Brexit as they hide behind a 'mandate' and do nothing.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



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  • #5992
    murphaph
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,039 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    gormdubhgorm wrote: »
    Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.
    It would only be a 'propaganda coup' for a while real business would be able to begin then.
    Sinn Fein should at least consider going to the commons. They might lose some core vote but gain new voters.
    That would be real leadership. Sinn Fein are as much to blame for Brexit as the Conservatives May/Cameron/Rees-Mogg et al - Labour - Corbyn and his wishy washy half hearted remain campaign. The DUP -Arelene etc.

    But Sinn Fein much perfer being the hurlers in the ditch in the dail/stormont/HOC. They are only opoosition in one and are not in the other two at the moment.
    Sinn Fein are as much to blame as the others for Brexit as they hide behind a 'mandate' and do nothing.
    I would probably never be able to vote for SF given their links to the IRA in the not so recent past but they are not responsible for Brexit in the slightest. If they went to the HoC people would vote against whatever way they vote. It wouldn't help at all as it's not a zero sum game.


  • #5993
    Thargor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,230 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    gormdubhgorm wrote: »
    Sinn Fein are as much to blame for Brexit as the Conservatives May/Cameron/Rees-Mogg et al - Labour - Corbyn and his wishy washy half hearted remain campaign

    Wow excellent analysis :rolleyes:


  • #5994
    BobbyBobberson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭BobbyBobberson


    Sinn Fein are not as responsible for Brexit as the Tories.


  • #5995
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,882 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    First Up wrote: »
    The Irish ports serving EU ports are well set up. Nothing will get on a ferry to the EU unless it is EU country of origin compliant. Anything that isn't will be processed as an Import into the EU before it is allowed on.

    Northern Irish freight can continue to use Dublin, Rosslare and Cork ports to access the continent but it will be processed seperately. A lorry park is being opened near Dublin airport as part of this.

    There may be some slippage for local traffic around the Irish border but the integrity of the Single Market will be hermetically sealed.
    I would think that NI freight for the UK mainland could continue as before through Dublin port as well. Would just need to put a customs seal on it at point of despatch and carry on as TIR freight. The only issue for the hauliers would be the ECMT permits. I imagine many of them are (or have been) setting up south of the border to circumvent that issue.


  • #5996
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I'd honestly be reconsidering my SF vote up north. I don't know the dynamics all that well but I'd want my voice heard.

    I don't want SF to go to the Commons. Just talking future.


  • #5997
    Shelga
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,054 ✭✭✭Shelga


    If they leave with no deal, are there any circumstances in which Leavers would recognise that the ensuing economic catastrophe is a direct result of crashing out? Or will they somehow find other ways to explain everything away? This is, after all, mass cognitive dissonance on a scale I've never seen before.

    Would it just be like "diesel diesel diesel" for every supermarket shortage, for every lorry queue?


  • #5998
    MrFresh
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,420 ✭✭✭MrFresh


    Shelga wrote: »
    If they leave with no deal, are there any circumstances in which Leavers would recognise that the ensuing economic catastrophe is a direct result of crashing out? Or will they somehow find other ways to explain everything away? This is, after all, mass cognitive dissonance on a scale I've never seen before.

    Would it just be like "diesel diesel diesel" for every supermarket shortage, for every lorry queue?


    They're already blaming the EU for punishing them in the negotiations for leaving.


  • #5999
    BobbyBobberson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 498 ✭✭BobbyBobberson


    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1113037778407829505

    My god.


  • #6000
    briany
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,332 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Shelga wrote: »
    If they leave with no deal, are there any circumstances in which Leavers would recognise that the ensuing economic catastrophe is a direct result of crashing out? Or will they somehow find other ways to explain everything away? This is, after all, mass cognitive dissonance on a scale I've never seen before.

    Would it just be like "diesel diesel diesel" for every supermarket shortage, for every lorry queue?

    I don't think Comical Ali would have anything on Nigel Farage, Mark Francois or JRM in terms of bare-faced denial in the event wherever a no-deal Brexit is a disaster, and their followers will likely go along with that.

    To be fairly also, if a no-deal Brexit somehow tuebed into a rousing success, I think the levels of denial on the other side would be similar.


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  • #6001
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    funkey_monkey wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/instituteforgov/status/1112836458329640960

    Why did SNP abstain on the CU option last night?

    Interestingly, there seems to be a core number of around 40 Tories who abstained on all votes. Do we know if that number was made up of a consistent core of MPs or if it was various names dropping in and out?

    That would be the cabinet who were told not to participate.


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