Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

robinph · 01-04-2019 03:45PM

If Brexit becomes a version where we are still in the EU, still follow all the rules, still pay all the bills and just don't send any MEP's to Brussels then I can live with that. Unfortunately it would mean that the lies they were saying about not having a voice in Europe would actually become true, but I think due to Brexit fatigue people wouldn't care and as long as there were no new regulations about bendy bananas sent the UK's way for a few years people would soon forget about it.

Would then just be a long game of gradually getting the UK back into fully participating again over the next several decades such that nobody notices.

LeinsterDub · 01-04-2019 03:46PM

First Up wrote: »

.

With that sort of incisive thinking, you really have to wonder.

The same thinking that rejected Nice and Lisbon one. 'Sure this will pass anyway and I'll give the government a bit of a kicking'

Anteayer · 01-04-2019 03:47PM

Balanadan wrote: »

Between the currency risk and the risk of tariffs in the event of no deal, we're holding off on doing new business with companies in the UK, only purchasing for confirmed orders or when we see value. We're ready to shift a lot of purchasing out of the UK to other European countries.

Same here. We've been actively removing UK companies from supply chains. It's nothing personal or political. They're just far, far too risky if you're dealing with tight margins.

On a personal level, it's actually quite sad to have to do that to companies that in many cases you'd have built up a good relationship with over the years, but you can't really sit exposed to this stuff and the outcome is still totally unpredictable.

I'd suspect that even if Article 50 is ultimately withdrawn, the UK has probably done enough self harm to cause a recession and damage that will last for years to come. There's trade being diverted elsewhere and it's not necessarily going to come back all that easily. Winning new customers is a hell of a lot more difficult than keeping existing ones happy.

Headshot · 01-04-2019 03:50PM

Guys do we know what indicative votes have been chosen to vote on later?

mafc · 01-04-2019 03:55PM

Headshot wrote: »

Guys do we know what indicative votes have been chosen to vote on later?

Not yet announced by Bercow

RobertKK · 01-04-2019 03:58PM

Norway+ depends on Norway and other EFTA members, they din't seem to want the UK in EFTA.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/27/efta-countries-wary-of-commons-interest-in-norway-brexit-option

robinph · 01-04-2019 03:59PM

Headshot wrote: »

Guys do we know what indicative votes have been chosen to vote on later?

They haven't yet had the vote on if they are going to allow themselves to have the votes later on. If last week was anything to go by though Bercow stated the options that he'd picked straight away after the vote to have the votes passed.

Strazdas · 01-04-2019 04:03PM

Anteayer wrote: »

Same here. We've been actively removing UK companies from supply chains. It's nothing personal or political. They're just far, far too risky if you're dealing with tight margins.

On a personal level, it's actually quite sad to have to do that to companies that in many cases you'd have built up a good relationship with over the years, but you can't really sit exposed to this stuff and the outcome is still totally unpredictable.

I'd suspect that even if Article 50 is ultimately withdrawn, the UK has probably done enough self harm to cause a recession and damage that will last for years to come. There's trade being diverted elsewhere and it's not necessarily going to come back all that easily. Winning new customers is a hell of a lot more difficult than keeping existing ones happy.

A very good point. There are probably plenty of people who think that if Brexit is cancelled, the UK reverts back to as if it is June 22nd, 2016 and nothing has actually happened. Unfortunately, they have inflicted massive reputational damage on themselves and made themselves look like a banana republic. The business and EU citizens they have driven away can not be recovered.

listermint · 01-04-2019 04:05PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Planned obsolescence and excessive consumerism are the greatest risks to the environment short of nuclear war, but these are nothing to do with Brexit.

For many leave voters, a rebellion against globalization was part of the reason they want to leave the EU. The EU representing many of the features of globalization that puts some people at a disadvantage as big business brings in cheap labour to deny them a career and export's the profit to another country to avoid tax.
The fear of a federal US of Europe, led by Germany was also a great fear amongst many leave voters as well.
Just calling them racist bigots, is simply avoiding the reasons many voted the way they did.

The Idea that the ordinary joe on the street and any notions about a rebellion against globalisation is hilarious. Putting in nuanced views such as those you outlined where old fashioned 'they took der jobs' will suffice is skewing the story.

The votes where 2 fold. A protest vote against the government of the day and anti migrant. The EU really didnt come into the serious discussion. Its only in the serious discussion now, 2 years later. Lets get a bit real about that.

Strazdas · 01-04-2019 04:05PM

RobertKK wrote: »

Norway+ depends on Norway and other EFTA members, they din't seem to want the UK in EFTA.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/27/efta-countries-wary-of-commons-interest-in-norway-brexit-option

With very good reason. A hard right Brexit government and PM might see EFTA as merely being a stepping stone out of Europe, not a way of getting back in.

Hurrache · 01-04-2019 04:06PM

If the government succeeds in the vote coming up, there may be no indicative voting at all.

ancapailldorcha · 01-04-2019 04:08PM

Hurrache wrote: »

If the government succeeds in the vote coming up, there may be no indicative voting at all.

What vote?

First Up · 01-04-2019 04:08PM

listermint wrote:

The votes where 2 fold. A protest vote against the government of the day and anti migrant. The EU really didnt come into the serious discussion. Its only in the serious discussion now, 2 years later. Lets get a bit real about that.

Correct. Visceral nationalism.

Anteayer · 01-04-2019 04:10PM

Strazdas wrote: »

With very good reason. A hard right Brexit government and PM might see EFTA as merely being a stepping stone out of Europe, not a way of getting back in.

The biggest issue with EFTA and the EEA is the UK would end up dominating the structures and it doesn't really have much in common with the likes of Norway and Iceland - small, social democratic countries with a lot of focus on pragmatism and stability.

The UK's into neoliberal economics and is into throwing its weight around. The EFTA members would be swamped by it.

Why would EFTA want them? They're not offering anything other than chaos really and are aggressively hostile towards any kind of multilateralism or sharing of power.

The Tories only see EFTA as a back door into the EU markets. They're not really interested in playing ball with small players, it's just a means to an end.

Can you imagine right wing tories considering Norway an equal partner?!

Hurrache · 01-04-2019 04:11PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What vote?

I'm sure the house has to vote on the motion of business for this afternoon and Wednesday. If the government whip against it, which I understand they will, they can shut down any indicative voting today and debate on it on Wednesday. Their argument is that it's undemocratic to cede control to allowing the house dictate orders of business, or something equally as madly ironic as that.

ancapailldorcha · 01-04-2019 04:14PM

Hurrache wrote: »

I'm sure the house has to vote on the motion of business for this afternoon and Wednesday. If the government whip against it, which I understand they will, they can shut down any indicative voting today and debate on it on Wednesday. Their argument is that it's undemocratic to cede control to allowing the house dictate orders of business, or something equally as madly ironic as that.

Thought you referring to yet another "Meaningful Vote".

01-04-2019 04:38PM

God, that was just a farce. Such a waste of time in the Commons.

Robert McGrath · 01-04-2019 04:47PM

This is interesting.

The UK Electoral Commission are basically refusing to investigate any further breaches of electoral law by Vote Leave, because essentially they think a finding on one offence is enough

https://mobile.twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1112736782913814528

Robert McGrath · 01-04-2019 04:49PM

Also, the second offence for which there is prima facie evidence involves the DUP and the single biggest donation in the history of NI politics

10000maniacs · 01-04-2019 04:49PM

Water John wrote: »

Peston is putting Norway + at 307 For 253 Against.

How is Norway + the Customs Union any different then being a member of the EU?
They may as well stay as doing so will at least ensure they will have a say on EU decisions.

Balanadan · 01-04-2019 04:52PM

What time do we tune in for the results of the votes?

Kermit.de.frog · 01-04-2019 04:55PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

How is Norway + the Customs Union any different then being a member of the EU?
They may as well stay as doing so will at least ensure they will have a say on EU decisions.

It's far worse than being a member.

UK would have to accept all the current and future EU rules with no say.

It makes Britain a vassal state of the EU which I highly doubt Britons would accept.

01-04-2019 04:55PM

322 vs 277 for even having the votes. Surprised it had that many Noes.

Irish Praetorian · 01-04-2019 04:56PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What vote?

MV4: Back for more.

Imreoir2 · 01-04-2019 04:56PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's far worse than being a member.

UK would have to accept all the current and future EU rules with no say.

It makes Britain a vassal state of the EU which I highly doubt Britons would accept.

This suggests that you believe that Norway is currently a vassal state of the EU? Is this correct?

An Ciarraioch · 01-04-2019 04:58PM

Suddenly, the Boles Plan moves ahead of a plain CU as favourite for approval - DUP will again abstain on former.

VinLieger · 01-04-2019 05:00PM

Kay Burley specifically mentioning part of the Customs Union 2.0 proposal is seeking membership of EFTA which simply wont happen for the various reason previously posted here.

ath262 · 01-04-2019 05:00PM

up for debate
C - Customs Union
D - Common Market 2.0
E - Confirmatory public vote
G - Parliamentary Supremacy

Professor Moriarty · 01-04-2019 05:02PM

Deleted User wrote: »

322 vs 277 for even having the votes. Surprised it had that many Noes.

There must have been about 50 abstentions. So a good few Tories didn't back the government despite the whip.

10000maniacs · 01-04-2019 05:02PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

This suggests that you believe that Norway is currently a vassal state of the EU? Is this correct?

Probably Norway have no problems with any EU decisions.
I remember they negotiated their own separate fisheries agreement with the EU a number of years ago. They are also not 100% aligned to CAP.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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