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Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Apparently, they will vote solely on the WA, rather than the Political Declaration, but given the backstop is in the Agreement itself, hard to see how that budges the ERG or DUP.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Apparently, they will vote solely on the WA, rather than the Political Declaration, but given the backstop is in the Agreement itself, hard to see how that budges the ERG or DUP.

    Yeah, fundamentally changes nothing much. Only thing it does is get it back before the house, hardly worth bothering with on that basis frankly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,778 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus




  • Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    From Reddit with 20k upvotes. Hoping it's allowed here.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/b6aa6s/no_majority_for_any_of_brexit_options/ejj19d8

    Can we have Theresa May's deal?

    Parliament: No

    How about a new PM since the leadership is so bad?

    Tories: No

    Ok, how about a general election?

    Parliament: No

    Ok, so how about a slightly altered version of May's deal?

    Parliament: No

    So a no deal Brexit then?

    Parliament: No

    Fine, here are 8 different options just pick one.

    Parliament: No


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Gov doesn’t know what it’s doing as bbc reporter just said there. Look to be faffing around blindly in the dark here. Tomorrow will be a colossal waste of time and it’ll be onto Monday to try make some real progress.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 55,863 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    No meaningful vote tomorrow but there is a supposed vote tomorrow but no one knows what it is lol


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,105 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Exactly what was TM playing at last night by claiming she would resign if the deal was voted but not checking with the DUP if they would back the deal?

    Yet again, TM seems to make terribly uninformed decisions. Her recent speech was a disaster, he trip to the EU to secure an extension was a disaster.


  • Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Exactly what was TM playing at last night by claiming she would resign if the deal was voted but not checking with the DUP if they would back the deal?

    Yet again, TM seems to make terribly uninformed decisions. Her recent speech was a disaster, he trip to the EU to secure an extension was a disaster.

    It's a person being pushed to the absolute limit. Being fully responsible whilst no one will back your work.

    She needs to resign. But when is the problem.


  • Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ha, another good one from Reddit: Schroedinger's Brexit.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,105 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    It's a person being pushed to the absolute limit. Being fully responsible whilst no one will back your work.

    She needs to resign. But when is the problem.

    Yeah, I get all that, but why not tie up the DUP first? Without that it is likely her deal will fail and as such, what she will continue? Its bonkers.

    As Laura K said last night on BBC, it really is the nuclear option for any PM, and to do so without first checking the lay of the land seems crazy.

    But it is just another in a long line of politically inept things that she has undertaken.

    In terms of the vote tomorrow, I am just catching up on the news and it all seems terribly disorganised. Leadsom says they will put forward a motion to ensure they meet the requirements of Bercow (the need for substantive change), the requirements of the EU (WA passed by the 29th). But the motion isn't finalised but she hopes the house will pass it!


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  • Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Leroy, you're right. But sanity seems to be lacking. It's like a deer in the headlights vocalising every option they have but ultimately doing nothing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,984 ✭✭✭✭Penn


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Exactly what was TM playing at last night by claiming she would resign if the deal was voted but not checking with the DUP if they would back the deal?

    Far more Tories against the deal than the DUP. I guess she figured if she got them on side with voting for the deal, it might force the DUP's hand as they'd either be the only outliers, or enough rebel Labour MPs might vote for the deal to counteract the DUP (which would likely then force a General Election after the WA is already passed if the DUP pull support), but at that point May is out the door anyway.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,037 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    While I fundamentally disagree with the DUP on Brexit, they have at least stuck to their guns on the WA, they don't like the deal, so unless it changes they won't vote for it. Now you may disagree with their ideology (and 99% of posters obviously do), but I'd argue the ERG MPs who decide to support the WA because it means May will go have far less scruples than the DUPers.

    The reality is the WA probably does weaken the Union, it will most likely separate NI from the rest of the UK, that's why they are unlikely to vote for it.

    Of course they don't represent the majority view in NI, and even a lot of moderate Unionists like myself would accept an Irish Sea Customs Border as I think it would arguably give NI the best of both worlds. But from the DUPs perspective rice the union is their "guiding star"


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    I disagree. I think she did as best she could to be honest. She's a mess, but it's not an entirely bad deal. They can't do trade deals if they're in the CU. That's what her focus has been.

    Except for the small fact that the withdrawal agreement keeps them in the CU


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,295 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Inquitus wrote: »

    So 12th April extension? Was only going to be extended to 22 May if WA passed. UK to go back to EU for a further extension then?


  • Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Laois_Man wrote: »
    Except for the small fact that the withdrawal agreement keeps them in the CU

    It's a temporary measure. They can choose to align to EU standards in the future removing their ability to do free trade deals, or they can remove themselves from the European market. If they can work up a solution that enables both, fair play.

    Why anyone thinks this basic fact is the EU's doing is beyond me. It's just so very rudimentary and obvious.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Eod100 wrote: »
    SUK to go back to EU for a further extension then?


    Yes, but they have to be in the right frame of mind: last minute panic.


    So expect them to request the extension at 10 pm on the 11th.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 875 ✭✭✭Anteayer


    What I find amusing is how anyone who knew anything about the DUP would ever think they're easy to negotiate with or that you could blackmail, bribe them or otherwise manipulate them into changing their mind.

    I find a lot of their rhetoric and policies rather obnoxious but they have a reputation for being incredibly inflexible and utterly uncompromising.

    Are the Tories really that dumb or is it just gross arrogance and overestimating their own ability to negotiate?

    A simple Google search of "DUP" or "who was Ian Paisley" should have given them a sense of what that were up against.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    It's a temporary measure. They can choose to align to EU standards in the future removing their ability to do free trade deals, or they can remove themselves from the European market. If they can work up a solution that enables both, fair play.

    Why anyone thinks this basic fact is the EU's doing is beyond me. It's just so very rudimentary and obvious.

    Who said it's the EU's doing?

    Also, Teresa May has no mandate to remove the UK from the single market. That is not the Leave campaign that was run in 2015-2016, they just moved the goal posts afterwards.....



    If she wants to leave the single market, there needs to be a campaign that advocates this option.

    As for it being a temporary measure.....yes it's a temporary measure for the years it takes the 27 members to agree to give the UK all the advantages of being in the EU and none of the disadvantage...cos that's what they think they should have!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Leadsom was talking as if 11pm tomorrow was the absolute deadline for the WA being passed by the house, think that is just more scare tactics though. But why, oh why is May putting herself through the pain of having the WA rejected again tomorrow when no changes have been made other than they leave off the attached letter.

    They can get it passed tomorrow just by adding in a 2nd referendum, May can then walk off into the sunset knowing that she got her deal passed, Boris can take over and fail to get the 2nd referendum passed and it then becomes Boris problem not Mays about what to do next and how to get through a GE.


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  • Posts: 18,046 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Laois_Man wrote: »

    As for it being a temporary measure.....yes it's a temporary measure for the years it takes the 27 members to agree to give the UK all the advantages of being in the EU and none of the disadvantage...cos that's what they think they should have!

    For what it's worth, I think their arguing for a time limit on the backstop is the grossest display of collective stupidity going. They're currently going through hell because of an end date. Any negotiations with the US etc. will be dominated by the same thing. The US sits and waits, like the EU has. If the EU had insisted on a time limit, there would be MPs arguing against one because of this very thing.

    I just don't understand.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Anteayer wrote: »
    What I find amusing is how anyone who knew anything about the DUP would ever think they're easy to negotiate with or that you could blackmail, bribe them or otherwise manipulate them into changing their mind.

    I find a lot of their rhetoric and policies rather obnoxious but they have a reputation for being incredibly inflexible and utterly uncompromising.

    Are the Tories really that dumb or is it just gross arrogance and overestimating their own ability to negotiate?

    A simple Google search of "DUP" or "who was Ian Paisley" should have given them a sense of what that were up against.

    Unfortunately that reputation is incorrect despite being the prevailing one. They have been proven at almost every juncture to just be behind everyone else.

    They're always against everything until the adults get them onside and pretend that it was the DUP's idea to do whatever it is that needs to happen.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    robinph wrote: »
    Leadsom was talking as if 11pm tomorrow was the absolute deadline for the WA being passed by the house, think that is just more scare tactics though. But why, oh why is May putting herself through the pain of having the WA rejected again tomorrow when no changes have been made other than they leave off the attached letter.

    They can get it passed tomorrow just by adding in a 2nd referendum, May can then walk off into the sunset knowing that she got her deal passed, Boris can take over and fail to get the 2nd referendum passed and it then becomes Boris problem not Mays about what to do next and how to get through a GE.

    It is the deadline for the May 22nd extension, however - miss it, and they will essentially have to declare their intentions next week, in order to finalise matters before the 12th.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,264 ✭✭✭✭jester77


    You can say what you want about the DUP, and I wouldn't be a fan, but at least they stand by their beliefs and everyone knows where they stand. Look at the nonsense that is going on in the HOC, where a lot of MP's will now vote for the WA because May said she will resign. It is the exact same WA that they rejected only a few weeks ago and nothing has changed. UK politics is just a pure circus where the interest of the people is majorly irrelevant to a lot them. The system needs a major overhaul.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,750 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    bilston wrote: »
    While I fundamentally disagree with the DUP on Brexit, they have at least stuck to their guns on the WA, they don't like the deal, so unless it changes they won't vote for it. Now you may disagree with their ideology (and 99% of posters obviously do), but I'd argue the ERG MPs who decide to support the WA because it means May will go have far less scruples than the DUPers.

    The reality is the WA probably does weaken the Union, it will most likely separate NI from the rest of the UK, that's why they are unlikely to vote for it.

    Of course they don't represent the majority view in NI, and even a lot of moderate Unionists like myself would accept an Irish Sea Customs Border as I think it would arguably give NI the best of both worlds. But from the DUPs perspective rice the union is their "guiding star"
    If the Union was their guiding star they wouldn't be supporting Brexit; they'd be staunch remainers. There's no attainable Brexit that reinforces the Union.

    To be fair to them, much as I hate being fair to them, when the decided to back Brexit they did so with no consideration or discussion, so they didn't actually know that it was a Union-undermining step. And they did that because they never thought that Brexit might get up, and therefore they didn't need to think about how it might play out in practice. They opposed it not for reason but for instinct - their instinctive dislike of the EU, which they have always regarded as a Romish conspiracy against Protestantism, and their instinct always to tog out with the Tory hard-right, who they think will, of British politicians, be the most friendly towards the Union, and therefore the ones they should stay close to.

    They should have had the maturity and the confidence to pivot when Brexit became a reality, and when it became apparent how damaging it was to Northern Ireland and to the Union. But pivoting is not in their DNA; they experience it as a defeat.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    If the Union was their guiding star they wouldn't be supporting Brexit; they'd be staunch remainers. There's no attainable Brexit that reinforces the Union.

    To be fair to them, much as I hate being fair to them, when the decided to back Brexit they did so with no consideration or discussion, so they didn't actually know that it was a Union-undermining step. And they did that because they never thought that Brexit might get up, and therefore they didn't need to think about how it might play out in practice. They opposed it not for reason but for instinct - their instinctive dislike of the EU, which they have always regarded as a Romish conspiracy against Protestantism, and their instinct always to tog out with the Tory hard-right, who they think will, of British politicians, be the most friendly towards the Union, and therefore the ones they should stay close to.

    They should have had the maturity and the confidence to pivot when Brexit became a reality, and when it became apparent how damaging it was to Northern Ireland and to the Union. But pivoting is not in their DNA; they experience it as a defeat.

    Excellent post.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,105 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    It is the deadline for the May 22nd extension, however - miss it, and they will essentially have to declare their intentions next week, in order to finalise matters before the 12th.

    But it is just as likely that should they fail to pass it tomorrow but agree something it the 12 then the EU will simply accept the 22nd May.

    The EU effectively move the A50 period from 2 years to 2 years and 2 weeks


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,301 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Fun and games in the Scottish Parliament with Sturgeon toying with the Tories over May

    https://twitter.com/mabonelis/status/1111244661341986817


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    If the Union was their guiding star they wouldn't be supporting Brexit; they'd be staunch remainers. There's no attainable Brexit that reinforces the Union.

    To be fair to them, much as I hate being fair to them, when the decided to back Brexit they did so with no consideration or discussion, so they didn't actually know that it was a Union-undermining step. And they did that because they never thought that Brexit might get up, and therefore they didn't need to think about how it might play out in practice. They opposed it not for reason but for instinct - their instinctive dislike of the EU, which they have always regarded as a Romish conspiracy against Protestantism, and their instinct always to tog out with the Tory hard-right, who they think will, of British politicians, be the most friendly towards the Union, and therefore the ones they should stay close to.

    They should have had the maturity and the confidence to pivot when Brexit became a reality, and when it became apparent how damaging it was to Northern Ireland and to the Union. But pivoting is not in their DNA; they experience it as a defeat.

    I'm normally a big fan of your insightful and normally erudite posts but I have to take issue with this part.

    You're saying that because of them being instinctively tone deaf that they should get a pass for backing Brexit? That their actions in this regard should be seen in the context of the result being unforeseen?

    If they had just backed down a notch or spent the last 2 years building a ladder to climb down instead of being so pig-headed I might have given them some credit. But all they've done us acted like a toddler in a sash and they need to reap what they've sown


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Fun and games in the Scottish Parliament with Sturgeon toying with the Tories over May

    https://twitter.com/mabonelis/status/1111244661341986817

    That's a fantastic line


This discussion has been closed.
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