Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Apparently, they will vote solely on the WA, rather than the Political Declaration, but given the backstop is in the Agreement itself, hard to see how that budges the ERG or DUP.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1111249001913946115

Gov doesn’t know what it’s doing as bbc reporter just said there. Look to be faffing around blindly in the dark here. Tomorrow will be a colossal waste of time and it’ll be onto Monday to try make some real progress.

Exactly what was TM playing at last night by claiming she would resign if the deal was voted but not checking with the DUP if they would back the deal?

Yet again, TM seems to make terribly uninformed decisions. Her recent speech was a disaster, he trip to the EU to secure an extension was a disaster.

While I fundamentally disagree with the DUP on Brexit, they have at least stuck to their guns on the WA, they don't like the deal, so unless it changes they won't vote for it. Now you may disagree with their ideology (and 99% of posters obviously do), but I'd argue the ERG MPs who decide to support the WA because it means May will go have far less scruples than the DUPers.

The reality is the WA probably does weaken the Union, it will most likely separate NI from the rest of the UK, that's why they are unlikely to vote for it.

Of course they don't represent the majority view in NI, and even a lot of moderate Unionists like myself would accept an Irish Sea Customs Border as I think it would arguably give NI the best of both worlds. But from the DUPs perspective rice the union is their "guiding star"

Inquitus wrote: »

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1111249001913946115

So 12th April extension? Was only going to be extended to 22 May if WA passed. UK to go back to EU for a further extension then?

Eod100 wrote: »

SUK to go back to EU for a further extension then?

Yes, but they have to be in the right frame of mind: last minute panic.


So expect them to request the extension at 10 pm on the 11th.

Deleted User wrote: »

It's a temporary measure. They can choose to align to EU standards in the future removing their ability to do free trade deals, or they can remove themselves from the European market. If they can work up a solution that enables both, fair play.

Why anyone thinks this basic fact is the EU's doing is beyond me. It's just so very rudimentary and obvious.

Who said it's the EU's doing?

Also, Teresa May has no mandate to remove the UK from the single market. That is not the Leave campaign that was run in 2015-2016, they just moved the goal posts afterwards.....



If she wants to leave the single market, there needs to be a campaign that advocates this option.

As for it being a temporary measure.....yes it's a temporary measure for the years it takes the 27 members to agree to give the UK all the advantages of being in the EU and none of the disadvantage...cos that's what they think they should have!

robinph wrote: »

Leadsom was talking as if 11pm tomorrow was the absolute deadline for the WA being passed by the house, think that is just more scare tactics though. But why, oh why is May putting herself through the pain of having the WA rejected again tomorrow when no changes have been made other than they leave off the attached letter.

They can get it passed tomorrow just by adding in a 2nd referendum, May can then walk off into the sunset knowing that she got her deal passed, Boris can take over and fail to get the 2nd referendum passed and it then becomes Boris problem not Mays about what to do next and how to get through a GE.

It is the deadline for the May 22nd extension, however - miss it, and they will essentially have to declare their intentions next week, in order to finalise matters before the 12th.

bilston wrote: »

While I fundamentally disagree with the DUP on Brexit, they have at least stuck to their guns on the WA, they don't like the deal, so unless it changes they won't vote for it. Now you may disagree with their ideology (and 99% of posters obviously do), but I'd argue the ERG MPs who decide to support the WA because it means May will go have far less scruples than the DUPers.

The reality is the WA probably does weaken the Union, it will most likely separate NI from the rest of the UK, that's why they are unlikely to vote for it.

Of course they don't represent the majority view in NI, and even a lot of moderate Unionists like myself would accept an Irish Sea Customs Border as I think it would arguably give NI the best of both worlds. But from the DUPs perspective rice the union is their "guiding star"

If the Union was their guiding star they wouldn't be supporting Brexit; they'd be staunch remainers. There's no attainable Brexit that reinforces the Union.

To be fair to them, much as I hate being fair to them, when the decided to back Brexit they did so with no consideration or discussion, so they didn't actually know that it was a Union-undermining step. And they did that because they never thought that Brexit might get up, and therefore they didn't need to think about how it might play out in practice. They opposed it not for reason but for instinct - their instinctive dislike of the EU, which they have always regarded as a Romish conspiracy against Protestantism, and their instinct always to tog out with the Tory hard-right, who they think will, of British politicians, be the most friendly towards the Union, and therefore the ones they should stay close to.

They should have had the maturity and the confidence to pivot when Brexit became a reality, and when it became apparent how damaging it was to Northern Ireland and to the Union. But pivoting is not in their DNA; they experience it as a defeat.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

It is the deadline for the May 22nd extension, however - miss it, and they will essentially have to declare their intentions next week, in order to finalise matters before the 12th.

But it is just as likely that should they fail to pass it tomorrow but agree something it the 12 then the EU will simply accept the 22nd May.

The EU effectively move the A50 period from 2 years to 2 years and 2 weeks

Peregrinus wrote: »

If the Union was their guiding star they wouldn't be supporting Brexit; they'd be staunch remainers. There's no attainable Brexit that reinforces the Union.

To be fair to them, much as I hate being fair to them, when the decided to back Brexit they did so with no consideration or discussion, so they didn't actually know that it was a Union-undermining step. And they did that because they never thought that Brexit might get up, and therefore they didn't need to think about how it might play out in practice. They opposed it not for reason but for instinct - their instinctive dislike of the EU, which they have always regarded as a Romish conspiracy against Protestantism, and their instinct always to tog out with the Tory hard-right, who they think will, of British politicians, be the most friendly towards the Union, and therefore the ones they should stay close to.

They should have had the maturity and the confidence to pivot when Brexit became a reality, and when it became apparent how damaging it was to Northern Ireland and to the Union. But pivoting is not in their DNA; they experience it as a defeat.

I'm normally a big fan of your insightful and normally erudite posts but I have to take issue with this part.

You're saying that because of them being instinctively tone deaf that they should get a pass for backing Brexit? That their actions in this regard should be seen in the context of the result being unforeseen?

If they had just backed down a notch or spent the last 2 years building a ladder to climb down instead of being so pig-headed I might have given them some credit. But all they've done us acted like a toddler in a sash and they need to reap what they've sown