Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Infini · 28-03-2019 12:16AM

Water John wrote: »

LB may not get a majority but could be the senior partner of a coalition with the SNP.
It's all about the numbers.

And the price of the SNP will be a 2nd indyref of course.

Professor Moriarty · 28-03-2019 12:17AM

Water John wrote: »

LB may not get a majority but could be the senior partner of a coalition with the SNP.
It's all about the numbers.

Plus the Lib Dems, Tigs, Plaid Cymru - if necessary.

Roger_007 · 28-03-2019 12:19AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Plus the Lib Dems, Tigs, Plaid Cymru - if necessary.

A British 'rainbow'?

Water John · 28-03-2019 12:20AM

SNP won't move to a Indy Ref unless they have a good chance of winning. Far more cautious than the first time. I think they would want to show their reliability as Govn't partners.

20silkcut · 28-03-2019 12:21AM

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

So;

May vows to resign, if her deal passes. But, the speaker just today said he may not even hear a vote on her deal, and even if he does, it’s unlikely to pass due to no support from DUP and half of ERG.

Meanwhile, parliament don’t have a majority for any one of 8 options, running the entire gamut from no-deal to EFTA+EEA.

Charitably, the EU could offer an extension allowing for a general election, but at this stage I’d be inclined to pull the plug on April 12th and move on. I don’t see the UK any closer to agreeing with itself than before.

That would go against the spirit of what Donald tusk said today.

Betraying the growing public opinion in Britain away from a hard brexit.

20silkcut · 28-03-2019 12:25AM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It is time the UK were cut loose. The whole thing is a farce.

Cut them adrift and we will survive.

This crap cant go on any longer.

Theyve surely robbed society of at least 2 years of progress.

This crap going on is still better than no deal.

Maybe if we disengaged from it a bit and let the brits sort themselves out we might be better off.

FrancieBrady · 28-03-2019 12:26AM

20silkcut wrote: »

That would go against the spirit of what Donald tusk said today.

Betraying the growing public opinion in Britain away from a hard brexit.

I think Tusk was just saying that to let it be known if they come back for a longer extension there will have to be a 2nd ref proposal.

maebee · 28-03-2019 12:28AM

Can someone please explain to me the difference between an "honourable member" and a "right honourable member,".

FrancieBrady · 28-03-2019 12:29AM

maebee wrote: »

Can someone please explain to me the difference between an "honourable member" and a "right honourable member,".

Opposition and fellow party member I think.

trashcan · 28-03-2019 12:30AM

20silkcut wrote: »

That would go against the spirit of what Donald tusk said today.

Betraying the growing public opinion in Britain away from a hard brexit.

I think the EU will be inclined to give a long extension if they can. The further down the road it's kicked the less likely it is to happen at all. I think stage one of that has already happened (assuming they can't crash out on Friday now and 12 April in the new date ?)

Roger_007 · 28-03-2019 12:30AM

maebee wrote: »

Can someone please explain to me the difference between an "honourable member" and a "right honourable member,".

It's the same as the difference between a bollix and a right bollix.:)

devnull · 28-03-2019 12:31AM

Whips are now defying the things they are whipping others to do.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1111046459124789249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1111046459124789249&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Flive-mps-to-vote-on-brexit-alternatives-as-theresa-may-battles-to-save-her-deal-11676313
Just when you thought it couldn't turn into more of a farce.

FrancieBrady · 28-03-2019 12:32AM

trashcan wrote: »

I think the EU will be inclined to give a long extension if they can. The further down the road it's kicked the less likely it is to happen at all. I think stage one of that has already happened (assuming they can't crash out on Friday now and 12 April in the new date ?)

They have to propose something or it's No Deal. If there is no consensus the only way to avoid crash out is to revoke the whole thing.

20silkcut · 28-03-2019 12:32AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think Tusk was just saying that to let it be known if they come back for a longer extension there will have to be a 2nd ref proposal.

He was reaching out to the people who marched in London at the weekend and those who signed the petition.
Better that than the rhetoric of verhopstadt, Elmer Brock and macron etc.

swampgas · 28-03-2019 12:33AM

maebee wrote: »

Can someone please explain to me the difference between an "honourable member" and a "right honourable member,".

Good summary of the honorifics here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/82149.stm

FrancieBrady · 28-03-2019 12:36AM

20silkcut wrote: »

He was reaching out to the people who marched in London at the weekend and those who signed the petition.
Better that than the rhetoric of verhopstadt, Elmer Brock and macron etc.

Maybe, but I think it was more subtle than that. I would expect this to become stronger as a message to parliament as we get nearer to deadlines.

AllForIt · 28-03-2019 12:36AM

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

That’s not really an explanation. Just another way of saying it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47671056

Indicative votes as stated in the above article, are designed to get parliament out the stalemate it is currently in. They are not binding in any way. They are designed to find a way forward out of the stalemate.

Most interestingly tonight was Ken Clarkes 'say in the customs union' indicative vote, which lost. Rightly so I though. The idea that the UK would stay in the Customs Union is unthinkable. Yes it would passify some ppl but it just wouldn't be Brexit.

Today is the second time TM said she would resign. It was only a comment she made to her party and isn't legally binding. It's not like she announced this publicly. It'll be forgotten by tomorrow despite the front pages going for it as their lead story. If there is a long extension, if the current one's fall through, there is no reason why she shouldn't remain as PM - unless there is a leadership challenge by someone who is not just a Brexiteer but somehow who can also come up with an actual workable solution to the problems, and as yet I haven't heard one.

I think the idea that there should be a referendum on the deal (if they ever agree on one) or no Brexit at all would be a complete disaster. The UK have to leave the EU and everything else that goes with it. The UK public voted for a complete disengagement with everything to do with the EU and I think that's what they should get whether they fully understand the implications of it or not.

Laois_Man · 28-03-2019 12:37AM

Its difficult to predict the outcome of a GE before the campaign as both the Tory and Labour parties would have to take unified positions within their party's on how to Exit and it's hard to predict how they'd support it - The Tory's wouldn't dare go into an election with May's deal as their offering - they'd have to abandon it and take some other line, probably something along the lines of a complete renegotiation, starting all over again, with no red lines and their usual arrogant attitude.

Labour will bleat about staying in the customs union and taking their final withdrawal deal to a referendum once WA is agreed

The Tory party would have to be given time to properly replace May which might cause Labour to think about using that time to get shut of Corbyn too. I bet he doesn't have the support of the wider Labour membership anymore, although I haven't seen any recent Labour membership polling to support that view.

But I think it would be Labour/Lib Dems (not SNP) coalition at the end of it all. Best guess.

Lib Dems will hoover up a very significant "Remain" vote.

Laois_Man · 28-03-2019 12:44AM

AllForIt wrote: »

The UK have to leave the EU and everything else that goes with it. The UK public voted for a complete disengagement with everything to do with the EU and I think that's what they should get

Except they didn't! The vast majority of Leave campaigners were insisting that nobody was advocating giving up access to the single market....but they've moved the goal posts since!

devnull · 28-03-2019 12:45AM

AllForIt wrote: »

I think the idea that there should be a referendum on the deal (if they ever agree on one) or no Brexit at all would be a complete disaster. The UK have to leave the EU and everything else that goes with it. The UK public voted for a complete disengagement with everything to do with the EU and I think that's what they should get whether they fully understand the implications of it or not.

No, they didn't and they don't, and I've explained this earlier.

The argument that leaving and agreeing certain other terms and deals with the EU is not Brexit and therefore democracy is dead is utterly flawed, because the ballot paper didn't ask that kind of question. If they want to ask that question, they should lobby for a referendum doing exactly that.

The document written as a result of the Referendum Act 2015, Free Movement, Customs Union, in fact a whole range of options were marked as possible outcomes if the UK voted to no longer be a member of the European Union. Therefore to go for one of these outcomes would be consistent with the referendum text.

Being a member of the European Union is a black and white question. You either revoke Article 50 and you are a member or anything else is not a member. Trying to suggest otherwise is a deliberate misinterpretation of the referendum text and making a presumption and is anything but democratic.

The referendum text asked a simple question and the responses were simple answers. The referendum tells you about these things, it doesn't tell you any more than that and anything else is presumptions being made by people who have agendas and are twisting things for their own means.

Westernyelp · 28-03-2019 12:54AM

maebee wrote:

Can someone please explain to me the difference between an "honourable member" and a "right honourable member,".

Right honourable is a member of the privy council. Like a minister

bilston · 28-03-2019 12:55AM

devnull wrote: »

Whips are now defying the things they are whipping others to do.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1111046459124789249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1111046459124789249&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.sky.com%2Fstory%2Flive-mps-to-vote-on-brexit-alternatives-as-theresa-may-battles-to-save-her-deal-11676313
Just when you thought it couldn't turn into more of a farce.

Just seen this on Twitter. Less than half of Tory MPs voted to extend A50 beyond Friday...staggering...it almost makes me feel sorry for May. She never stood a chance.

maebee · 28-03-2019 12:55AM

swampgas wrote: »

Good summary of the honorifics here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/82149.stm

Thanks swampgas. It's feckin hilarious.

devnull · 28-03-2019 12:56AM

Numbers out showing just 150 Tory MPs voted for extending Article 50 exit date in UK law until April or May.

164 defied the three line whip by voting against (93) or abstaining (71) which is shocking.

It essentially means that the whips office may as well be disbanded, because tonight a majority of the Tory MPs decided that they would not be complying with the whips come what may.

It's absolutely unheralded in British politics for the whips to have virtually zero control over their party. Normally the members would be sacked or forced to resign, but TM doesn't have power to do that.

The Tory party really is in crisis.

devnull · 28-03-2019 01:00AM

bilston wrote: »

Just seen this on Twitter. Less than half of Tory MPs voted to extend A50 beyond Friday...staggering...it almost makes me feel sorry for May. She never stood a chance.

12 out of the 18 whips voted against what they were whipping for.

As I stated up thread, whips may as well be disbanded, they have very little control of the party and are hardly setting a good example. They've probably gone rogue like the MPs who are being whipped.

A Prime Minister has a really serious issue when even the whips are not really following her instructions. She has no authority. She is more finished by the day and it just brings a GE ever closer.

Eod100 · 28-03-2019 01:06AM

Westernyelp wrote: »

Right honourable is a member of the privy council. Like a minister

The privy council sounds like a neighborhood watch association.

Spook_ie · 28-03-2019 01:06AM

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-denies-government-hiding-real-no-deal-border-plans-913761.html

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has denied his Government is deliberately hiding its real no deal Brexit border plans, claiming the allegation is a "conspiracy theory".

Mr Varadkar was forced to reject the allegation just days after EU leaders specifically discussed the need for a no deal border plan and as opposition parties warned "nothing is being clarified" on the issue.

Wasn't Cowen and Lenihan news in similar vein before the IMF wondered in?

Professor Moriarty · 28-03-2019 01:09AM

Eod100 wrote: »

The privy council sounds like a neighborhood watch association.

Privy means having knowledge of secrets. Interestingly, it also means a toilet.

Eod100 · 28-03-2019 01:28AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Privy means having knowledge of secrets. Interestingly, it also means a toilet.

Ah yeah, being privy to something. Just think language comes across as fairly archaic/anachronistic

10000maniacs · 28-03-2019 02:05AM

Spook_ie wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-denies-government-hiding-real-no-deal-border-plans-913761.html
Wasn't Cowen and Lenihan news in similar vein before the IMF wondered in?

Can't really pin this mess on anybody in Dail Eireann. Although I suppose that won't stop them. Its basically a 3 dimensional Venn diagram with very little manoeuvre or common overlap.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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