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Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,132 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Obviously the UK comes last, Tories and grandees/beneficiaries of an exit come first.

    Are people in the UK blind to this or what. I am sure there are millions who see through it, but what voice do they have at all.

    It is just awful to me. But I must not get over invested either. What will be will be I suppose.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    The problem with a custom union is that it isn’t out. Many leavers won’t be happy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    I'm not so sure; if you look into the polling within the Tory party's membership, No-Deal commands more than a majority. I suspect that whatever comes of the next few months, the Tory party will be consolidated as the party of no-deal with any Remain representatives ending up deselected or defecting. Of course, how any of this relates to their performance with the general public in an election is anyone's guess.

    Well, a change of PM doesn't necessarily mean a GE. You make a very good point about the membership. However, it's the MPs who decide on the final two candidates so they could, in the interests of party unity, decide on two relatively neutral candidates to put before the membership. If they end up voting, for instance, Boris in as PM, then the party will fragment. It will be the final straw for many remainers including some of the present cabinet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    I'm not so sure; if you look into the polling within the Tory party's membership, No-Deal commands more than a majority. I suspect that whatever comes of the next few months, the Tory party will be consolidated as the party of no-deal with any Remain representatives ending up deselected or defecting. Of course, how any of this relates to their performance with the general public in an election is anyone's guess.

    Well thanks to the IG labour are shagged at the next GM.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Strazdas wrote: »
    The flaws in this strategy would be obvious to a six year old. A deal that nobody wants gets voted through for party political reasons. What could possibly go wrong in its aftermath?
    There is the other flaw that they still need to get the DUP on board to pass May's deal.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,332 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The problem with a custom union is that it isn’t out. Many leavers won’t be happy.

    It makes the UK a vassal state of the EU.

    Far worse than either leaving fully or being a full member.

    The claim the vote was about sovereignty. Accepting alignment with the EU and having absolutely no say is about as far as a country can go to losing it's sovereignty.

    Makes no sense at all.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,709 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    The problem with a custom union is that it isn’t out. Many leavers won’t be happy.
    The referendum was not whether Britain should remain in or leave the Customs Union, it was whether they should remain in or leave the European Union. Leaving the EU but remaining in the CU satisfies the "will of the people".

    There is no consensus amongst leave voters so no matter which course is taken there will be some unhappy. The only scenario backed by a clear majority of people is Remain, rather than the very heterogeneous range of options that were simplified down to "Leave".


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,332 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    marno21 wrote: »
    The referendum was not whether Britain should remain in or leave the Customs Union, it was whether they should remain in or leave the European Union. Leaving the EU but remaining in the CU satisfies the "will of the people".

    There is no consensus amongst leave voters so no matter which course is taken there will be some unhappy. The only scenario backed by a clear majority of people is Remain, rather than the very heterogeneous range of options that were simplified down to "Leave".

    I don't think the people voted for the EU to make the rules and the UK having no say.

    They most certainly did not vote for that state of affairs.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    marno21 wrote: »
    The referendum was not whether Britain should remain in or leave the Customs Union, it was whether they should remain in or leave the European Union. Leaving the EU but remaining in the CU satisfies the "will of the people".

    There is no consensus amongst leave voters so no matter which course is taken there will be some unhappy. The only scenario backed by a clear majority of people is Remain, rather than the very heterogeneous range of options that were simplified down to "Leave".

    I’m not a leaver but people who voted leave probably meant leave fully. As Kermit says the customs union is basically in.

    They didn’t necessarily want no deal either, mostly when you leave an organisation you would get a deal but the customs union is going to annoy most of them.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,709 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    I don't think the people voted for the EU to make the rules and the UK having no say.

    They most certainly did not vote for that state of affairs.
    In reality, no one who voted Leave knew exactly what they were voting for. There was no published plans for what Leave actually meant when it came to the Customs Union or indeed any of the other elements of any future UK/EU relationship.

    I don't think it's right to say that the 52% voted in favour of the Brexit that Jacob Rees-Mogg fantasises about in the shower every morning. Nor did the 52% all agree that a Norway type option was the best path for the UK to take.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,709 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    I’m not a leaver but people who voted leave probably meant leave fully. As Kermit says the customs union is basically in.

    They didn’t necessarily want no deal either, mostly when you leave an organisation you would get a deal but the customs union is going to annoy most of them.
    I agree with you - but what I was pointing out is that it wasn't made clear whether Leave meant remaining/leaving the Customs Union also. Some people who voted Leave may not be too happy with their vote if it involves economic damage to their way of life as a result of tariffs etc. Something they were never fully briefed on pre-Brexit.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 gaffergamgee


    Long time lurker here coming out of cover as we approach the End of Days. Can I just thank everyone here for their contributions to what has become the most informative and addictive thread I’ve ever followed...cogent and educated argument, the occasional mild flurry of handbags, the invasion and expulsion of trolls, and the rising amazement bordering on horror at the unravelling of the British political system. A special shout out to the magnificent Peregrinus, whose learned, lucid and drily witty posts are worth waking up early for. (My only quibble with Peregrinus is when he prefaces his/her erudite and educational posts with ‘as we all know...’ to which my mental response is ‘Yes, well...hmmmm...’). Also a shout out to ancapailldorcha (whom I increasingly think of as the John Bercow of the thread) for strong and decisive moderation in what has to be an extremely thankless job. So far I’ve refrained from commenting as my interest and knowledge has been in the humanities rather than economics or politics and there are many here with far more knowledge in these fields than I do. I don’t think even in our wildest dreams we expected GB to flirt so openly with a no-deal Brexit and the consequent disaster it could visit on us...the feeling has gone from that of watching a grisly car-crash from a safe vantage point, to that of watching the sinking of the Titanic from one of the lifeboats...knowing you could get caught in the undertow as it goes down, and knowing there’s not a damn thing you can do about it. It’s just no use expecting any logic in this business. I have some British friends who are remainers and they feel angry and disenfranchised. I have a Scottish friend who works between here and the UK and he tells me he’s astounded at how some of his friends, otherwise rational and intelligent people, have become rabidly pro-Brexit. Like I said, no logic...I feel like I’m in a bloody episode of the X-Files, or that Star Trek mirror universe where everything is angry, aggressive and visceral. I can only hope that this thread will keep shaping some sort of order from from the chaos and for this, I thank you...carry on...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    It makes the UK a vassal state of the EU.

    Far worse than either leaving fully or being a full member.

    The claim the vote was about sovereignty. Accepting alignment with the EU and having absolutely no say is about as far as a country can go to losing it's sovereignty.

    Makes no sense at all.

    Is Turkey a vassal state of the EU? Have the Turks lost their sovereignty? I don't think this kind of language has much use in modern discourse, the EU does not have vassals, it has trading partners that choose to align with the EU because it is the biggest single market in the world. That choice by the EU's partners is one of economic self interest, not subjection.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    Is Turkey a vassal state of the EU? Have the Turks lost their sovereignty? I don't think this kind of language has much use in modern discourse, the EU does not have vassals, it has trading partners that choose to align with the EU because it is the biggest single market in the world. That choice by the EU's partners is one of economic self interest, not subjection.

    Right, but...

    The U.K. population has been sold a litany of grievances about Brussels and trade for generations- bendy Bananas and laws against chocolate and so on. The average leaver might see this as a betrayal. But nobody knows what people wanted, of course.

    It’s the best option I think, but not sure if it will sell.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Right, but...

    The U.K. population has been sold a litany of grievances about Brussels and trade for generations- bendy Bananas and laws against chocolate and so on. The average leaver might see this as a betrayal. But nobody knows what people wanted, of course.

    It’s the best option I think, but not sure if it will sell.

    I'm not entirely sure why we in the EU would care if some brexiters get their feelngs hurt because their Brexit is not as Brexit as they want it to Brexit.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    I'm not entirely sure why we in the EU would care if some brexiters get their feelngs hurt because their Brexit is not as Brexit as they want it to Brexit.

    I’m not sure why you brought “we in the EU” into a discussion about what U.K. leave voters want, or not.

    The assumption here, in the last few posts, seems to be that the EU would agree to the customs union or any other proposal voted on by parliament next week, and I’m also making that assumption. Maybe not.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    By the way, were I the EU I’d say WA or no deal.

    That’s generally how negotiatons work.

    The WA isn’t just May’s deal it’s actually the EU’s deal. That should be it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,280 ✭✭✭fash


    I don't think the people voted for the EU to make the rules and the UK having no say.

    They most certainly did not vote for that state of affairs.

    We won't know unless they are specifically asked that question.

    If you want speculation, the UK voted to have all of the benefits and none of the obligations, an amazing deal, to have £350 million going to the NHS and to have its cake and eat it - put that way, the thing the UK voted for was remain.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,734 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    . . . My only quibble with Peregrinus is when he prefaces his/her erudite and educational posts with ‘as we all know...’ to which my mental response is ‘Yes, well...hmmmm...’
    As we all know, when I introduce a statement with "As we all know . . .", it's because we all know it. ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,734 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    I don't think the people voted for the EU to make the rules and the UK having no say.

    They most certainly did not vote for that state of affairs.
    I’m not a leaver but people who voted leave probably meant leave fully. As Kermit says the customs union is basically in.

    They didn’t necessarily want no deal either, mostly when you leave an organisation you would get a deal but the customs union is going to annoy most of them.
    Honestly, we don't know what people voted for. The Leave campaigns offered every possible kind of leave and projected every possible attractive consequence of leave, and it's impossible to know which promises and projections actually motivated Leave votes. (Though it's reasonable to guess that different Leave voters were motivated by different promises and projections to different degrees.)

    I certainly don't think we can assume that all or nearly all Leave voters would oppose being in a customs union. In the first place, the Leave campaign barely mentioned the Customs Union as such, so it's hard to argue that Leave voters were particularly actuated by concerns about, or an aversion towards, the customs union. Secondly, a strong theme of the Leave campaign was the notion that the UK joined a Common Market in 1973; that it had since transmuted into a sinister political project without approval or buy-in from the British people; and the Leaving the EU was a route back to the kind of co-operative economic partnership with other European countries that the UK chose. But of course a customs union was part of that co-operative economic partnership right from the get-go. As David Davis said:
    "The primary aim is clear – to get as close as possible to the trading alliance, the common market we all voted for in 1975… My preference would be that we should remain within the customs union."

    This, of course, is not what David Davis says now. But it used to be a mainstream Leaver position, and it's absurd to suggest that no Leave voter ever shared it.

    The bottom line is that (a) no particular model of Brexit was specified on the ballot paper, while (b) every possible model of Brexit was offered to voters by the Leave campaigns (along with a few impossible ones). The result of this is that while there is a general mandate to pursue Brexit, there is no specific mandate to pursue any particular model of Brexit in priority to other models, and almost certainly every feasible model of Brexit is rejected by a majority of voters - the Remain voters, plus those Leave voters who think "that's not the Brexit I voted for".

    Hence the present mess.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Calina


    The UK voted for all the benefits and none of the costs or obligations. The costs and obligations concerned and varied by voter. for some it was money for the NHS and for others it was nasty foreigners. A number expected that they could ban FOM into the UK but UK people would still have FOM outbound.

    The ones who yammer on about trade and WTO rules demonstrably do not know what they are talking about.

    As for sovereignty, what they get back will leave them less influential than what they shared.

    As to what will happen this week, I do not know. They have shown themselves unable to even define an implementation process.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 353 ✭✭kalych


    The problem with a custom union is that it isn’t out. Many leavers won’t be happy.

    Can we talk about when this Brexiter nonsense became a thing? Turkey is in the customs union, EEA means being in the single market. If neither of those is acceptable then TM's deal or hard Brexit it is. There are no other deals.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,855 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    The bottom line is that (a) no particular model of Brexit was specified on the ballot paper, while (b) every possible model of Brexit was offered to voters by the Leave campaigns (along with a few impossible ones). The result of this is that while there is a general mandate to pursue Brexit, there is no specific mandate to pursue any particular model of Brexit in priority to other models, and almost certainly every feasible model of Brexit is rejected by a majority of voters - the Remain voters, plus those Leave voters who think "that's not the Brexit I voted for".
    This is the kind of post-truth truth of brexit. As the days and months passed and the reality of what was available met the fantasy of what was promised, the options narrowed down to the point that many leavers now insist that they voted to leave the customs union, the single market and all the treaties enshrined in EU law. Hard brexit became the unicorn just out of sight behind the sunlit uplands. There are those who will insist that a hard brexit is what they voted for until yiou ask them who exactly campaigned for this and have they any examples of the literature that said so. None of this is helped by the fact that the government is split into as many factions aa flavours of brexit and the opposition also.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,734 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    This is the kind of post-truth truth of brexit. As the days and months passed and the reality of what was available met the fantasy of what was promised, the options narrowed down to the point that many leavers now insist that they voted to leave the customs union, the single market and all the treaties enshrined in EU law. Hard brexit became the unicorn just out of sight behind the sunlit uplands. There are those who will insist that a hard brexit is what they voted for until yiou ask them who exactly campaigned for this and have they any examples of the literature that said so. None of this is helped by the fact that the government is split into as many factions aa flavours of brexit and the opposition also.
    I don't mind leavers insisting that they themselves voted for their favoured kind of Brexit . What gets my goat is leavers insisting that that all the other Leavers also voted for that kind of Brexit. It takes a fair degree of cognitive dissonance to complain about arrogant Remainer elitists and at the same time to issue pronouncements about what other people meant by the votes they cast.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,420 ✭✭✭MrFresh


    Interesting projection here suggests a customs union would prevail in the indicative votes:

    http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1109843870165155842


    Why is 2nd referendum in there? Is this not a projection of what people would choose in a second referendum? There's really only three choices now. No deal, May's deal or Revoke. Whether they come to the agreement by referendum or not is really irrelevant.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,734 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    MrFresh wrote: »
    Why is 2nd referendum in there? Is this not a projection of what people would choose in a second referendum? There's really only three choices now. No deal, May's deal or Revoke. Whether they come to the agreement by referendum or not is really irrelevant.
    No. This is a projection of how MPs will vote in the indicative votes which will, or may, be held in the Commons this week. MPs can vote to hold a second referendum but of course if they make that choice they can't then say what the outcome of that second referendum would be - that will be up to the citizens.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,855 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Peregrinus wrote: »
    I don't mind leavers insisting that they themselves voted for their favoured kind of Brexit . What gets my goat is leavers insisting that that all the other Leavers also voted for that kind of Brexit. It takes a fair degree of cognitive dissonance to complain about arrogant Remainer elitists and at the same time to issue pronouncements about what other people meant by the votes they cast.
    It's very difficult to insist truthfully that you voted for a hard brexit when no campaign group was offering that as a choice. In fact they were insisting that any suggestion of such an outcome was scaremongering and 'project fear'. But there's been a consistent moving of goalposts as time went on and you even get statements like this one (although not often as easily proven a lie):


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,010 ✭✭✭Panrich


    Here is what was being said prior to the vote.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0xGt3QmRSZY

    There’s quite a bit of revisionism since May went mental and started drawing red lines where none existed.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,734 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    It's called gaslighting. Brexit campaigners mount a sustained effor to persuade you that everything you remember about what was said during the Leave campaign, and about the positions that various people took, is wrong.

    Or, as George Orwell put it in 1984, "we have always been at war with Eastasia".


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,995 ✭✭✭Russman


    I think they're really struggling to come to terms with the fact that the Brexit they want or the Brexit they voted for (at least in their own heads) - essentially all of the benefits of membership and none of the costs/drawbacks, is simply not something they can have. Even if 100% of them voted for it, they still can't have that.


This discussion has been closed.
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