Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

robinph · 24-03-2019 09:29PM

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

As you will see from below, there are separate petitions open for each side - pro-Brexit and anti-Brexit. While both petitions remain open, the one on the left has somewhat of an unfair advantage in that it has been online since November last.... whereas the one on the right was only created last month.

(To check for the latest figures for each petition, click on the graphic)

The leave petition has also been open for nearly 6 months already, and has already been responded to by parliamentary committee, and 50% of the signatories on it have only done so in the last couple of days since it was posted on threads pointing out its lack of respondents in comparison to the remain one.

Spanish Eyes · 24-03-2019 09:31PM

Could be an interesting week ahead.

So HoC swatted away No Deal, and WA.

I really do wonder what they do want, and if they would communicate it please!

20silkcut · 24-03-2019 09:45PM

Infini wrote: »

Bit of an image dump but a few examples from ledbydonkeys why Brexit is bad and why for those who have paid attention and red into the subject would oppose this.

Brexit: Smells like Hypocracy....

Great quotes in them pictures.
All I can say is my god what a shambles.

Don’t get me wrong no deal is a disaster but I can’t deny the alluring sense of schadenfreude I have building up for those ardent brexiteers and the inevitable minor serotonin crash that will occur if or when disaster is averted.

I suppose my reptilian brain wants something big to happen. After three years of constant Brexit Brexit Brexit.

An Ciarraioch · 24-03-2019 09:48PM

Chequers, predictably, appears to have been a damp squib:

http://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1109910454674051076

ancapailldorcha · 24-03-2019 09:52PM

But no deal is the legal default and no substantial changes have been made to the Withdrawal Agreement. We leave on Friday. Surely a significant extension or cancelling the whole thing by either plebiscite/Parliament is the only way now.

Itssoeasy · 24-03-2019 09:57PM

I mean the question that was put to the British public was did they want to leave or remain in the EU. It never said “if leave in what way will we leave the EU ?” That’s why I think there should be a second referendum to ask the British people are they happy with how their government has decided or negotiated to leave. I don’t see why the second amendment is such a bad thing with the leave side if they believe they are right.

BobbyBobberson · 24-03-2019 09:58PM

Rees Mogg more or less said same thing years ago. One referendum on whether to leave or not and another on what type of leave.

Spanish Eyes · 24-03-2019 10:00PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

But no deal is the legal default and no substantial changes have been made to the Withdrawal Agreement. We leave on Friday. Surely a significant extension or cancelling the whole thing by either plebiscite/Parliament is the only way now.

Well when Government has no road map, all theories are valid.

Is it not the case that if the third MV either does not happen or is voted down, exit happens on 12/4 rather than 29/3?

I agree that the two options left are revoke or a long extension (+ EP elections for UK).

Revoke sounds easy doesn't it at this stage. There is no easy way out of this mess anymore, as if there ever was.

But there is also a No Deal Exit option, which no one wants apparently.

An Ciarraioch · 24-03-2019 10:01PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

But no deal is the legal default and no substantial changes have been made to the Withdrawal Agreement. We leave on Friday. Surely a significant extension or cancelling the whole thing by either plebiscite/Parliament is the only way now.

Doesn't EU law override UK law - ergo, by the UK accepting the deal on Thursday, that has automatically pushed B-Day back to April 12th, even without a Statutory Instrument?

igCorcaigh · 24-03-2019 10:16PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

But no deal is the legal default and no substantial changes have been made to the Withdrawal Agreement. We leave on Friday. Surely a significant extension or cancelling the whole thing by either plebiscite/Parliament is the only way now.

Hasn't there been an extension by a couple of weeks?

Irishmale0399 · 24-03-2019 10:19PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I mean the question that was put to the British public was did they want to leave or remain in the EU. It never said “if leave in what way will we leave the EU ?” That’s why I think there should be a second referendum to ask the British people are they happy with how their government has decided or negotiated to leave. I don’t see why the second amendment is such a bad thing with the leave side if they believe they are right.

How can they ask the people how they should leave when the EU are the ones who sit at the table and more or less dictate it. If the EU say tomorrow sorry game over them its a hard brexit.

The EU wasted 2 years negociating with TM and her team getting a WA in place that was acceptable for both sides. Its not a game of make a wish UK.....they are the ones going to the EU with a begging bowl asking for a fair withdrawal from day 1.

ancapailldorcha · 24-03-2019 10:27PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Well when Government has no road map, all theories are valid.

Is it not the case that if the third MV either does not happen or is voted down, exit happens on 12/4 rather than 29/3?

I agree that the two options left are revoke or a long extension (+ EP elections for UK).

Revoke sounds easy doesn't it at this stage. There is no easy way out of this mess anymore, as if there ever was.

But there is also a No Deal Exit option, which no one wants apparently.

They need a sufficient majority to get past Bercow which is a huge task given the magnitude of the defeats of the first two readings.

Revocation seems to be the only solution. Either way, it looks like we will crash out or contest the EU elections come May.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Doesn't EU law override UK law - ergo, by the UK accepting the deal on Thursday, that has automatically pushed B-Day back to April 12th, even without a Statutory Instrument?

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Hasn't there been an extension by a couple of weeks?

'Til April 12th. They have to come up with a new solution, ie revoke Article 50 or possibly call a general election. Corbyn has met with the EU side a few times. It's possible they have a separate deal or some backup plan in case he becomes PM.

Imreoir2 · 24-03-2019 10:32PM

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

however I would tend to question your neutrality here in the thead as a mod. The topic seems to be one you are very passionate about.....

I think this is unfair and baseless, and there is a longstanding rule on bords that you do not question moderation in thread. If you feel that a mod is biased and modding a thread badly as a result then report examples of it, there is a process for this kind of thing to prevent a thread being derailed.

A mod being passionate about a topic and modding a thread badly are two totally different things.

Infini · 24-03-2019 10:33PM

If time runs perilously short then an immediate Revocation of A50 will become a necessity because at that point it will be the only way of putting the whole thing on ice. The Brexiteers will cry but they honestly had their chance and were found wanting. If there's a need for it to go to the people again in a 2nd vote then this should happen but this time only with factual information on hand. If the leavers can't argue their case without resorting to lies then its because they havent got any and making up things for such a monumental decision should never have been allowed to begin with.

Honestly this whole thing is a fiasco and it's only gone on as long as it has because none there has any principals or leadership abilities to be able to stand up to ignorant BS's and call them out every time they fail to back up their statements with coherent facts.

PeadarCo · 24-03-2019 11:03PM

Imreoir2 wrote:

A mod being passionate about a topic and modding a thread badly are two totally different things.

You need mods to be passionate otherwise why would they bother their free time especially in a forum like politics where things can get very heated. Overall the Brexit megathreads have been very informative and that's in part due to the moderation. When you compare these mega threads to some of the previous mega threads in politics and politics Cafe its amazing that the standard has been maintained and you still have new voices contributing. A lot of previous mega threads descended into points scoring contests between a small number of posters. Again that's in part due to the work of the mods and the sometimes thankless work they do.

BobbyBobberson · 24-03-2019 11:04PM

Front of The Sun

https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1109938773532528640

The state of Boris

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1109940772399386624

The Rape of Lucretia · 24-03-2019 11:21PM

Rees-Mogg has made a much better effort to smarten up, even if the jumper is a bit Labour Party. And has his own a driver.

Hurrache · 24-03-2019 11:25PM

Johnson arrived driving a bit of a junker people carrier, I expect for the purpose of optics for the common man.

BobbyBobberson · 24-03-2019 11:28PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Johnson arrived driving a bit of a junker people carrier, I expect for the purpose of optics for the common man.

Exactly, he is forever at that craic. I remember him bringing out tea to reporters in mis matched mugs and the commentariat cooed how great he was.

Irish Praetorian · 24-03-2019 11:33PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Johnson arrived driving a bit of a junker people carrier, I expect for the purpose of optics for the common man.

Tis the will of the people carrier.

An Ciarraioch · 24-03-2019 11:46PM

Interesting projection here suggests a customs union would prevail in the indicative votes:

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1109843870165155842

lawred2 · 24-03-2019 11:47PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Johnson arrived driving a bit of a junker people carrier, I expect for the purpose of optics for the common man.

Saw that myself. Is that a man of the people schtick he's trying to pull off?

BobbyBobberson · 24-03-2019 11:49PM

Interesting breakdown of the petition

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

Water John · 24-03-2019 11:59PM

That Round 5 is the key, where its, a CU v 2nd Ref up against TMs Deal.
The diff is 25 which is quite close. That is simply 13 MPs at that point.

Like all PR systems it's what falls off and what stays in the ballot.

BobbyBobberson · 25-03-2019 12:09AM

I just do not get this at all.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1109953556726140930

So the deal is crap, we hate it. However if you say you will quit we will vote for the deal?

My only take from that is that the ERG are hoping a hard brexiteer will become PM and what?

Professor Moriarty · 25-03-2019 12:13AM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

I just do not get this at all.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1109953556726140930

So the deal is crap, we hate it. However if you say you will quit we will vote for the deal?

My only take from that is that the ERG are hoping a hard brexiteer will become PM and what?

I think that they will have to install someone who is relatively neutral. A hard Brexiteer or a hard Remainer would see scores of defections from the Tory party.

Headshot · 25-03-2019 12:17AM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

I just do not get this at all.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1109953556726140930

So the deal is crap, we hate it. However if you say you will quit we will vote for the deal?

My only take from that is that the ERG are hoping a hard brexiteer will become PM and what?

Or ERG want total control over the second phase of negotiations

Those guy's should be thrown out of the Tories but unfortunately they won't be

Strazdas · 25-03-2019 12:21AM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

I just do not get this at all.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1109953556726140930

So the deal is crap, we hate it. However if you say you will quit we will vote for the deal?

My only take from that is that the ERG are hoping a hard brexiteer will become PM and what?

The flaws in this strategy would be obvious to a six year old. A deal that nobody wants gets voted through for party political reasons. What could possibly go wrong in its aftermath?

robindch · 25-03-2019 12:24AM

20silkcut wrote: »

All I can say is my god what a shambles. [...] After three years of constant Brexit Brexit Brexit.

Not to forget yet another contender for Peak Brexit, TM's witless and utterly meaningless reply which the interviewer, predictably, failed to follow up on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo94-Qow8t0

Irish Praetorian · 25-03-2019 12:25AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think that they will have to install someone who is relatively neutral. A hard Brexiteer or a hard Remainer would see scores of defections from the Tory party.

I'm not so sure; if you look into the polling within the Tory party's membership, No-Deal commands more than a majority. I suspect that whatever comes of the next few months, the Tory party will be consolidated as the party of no-deal with any Remain representatives ending up deselected or defecting. Of course, how any of this relates to their performance with the general public in an election is anyone's guess.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Comments