Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

The Rape of Lucretia · 23-03-2019 07:03PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Whats stopping them from organising a rally in London to support their aim of leaving the EU?

The lack of any need to do so. The referendum result us already the one they want.

An Ciarraioch · 23-03-2019 07:03PM

listermint wrote: »

George Galloway is an idiot though. So id like to see the source

PDF with full tabs in link below:

https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/daily-express-brexit-poll-march-2019/

Capt'n Midnight · 23-03-2019 07:04PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Think it was Blair who said many months back that a second referendum only made sense if you could somehow guarantee a 60% remain vote. I don’t think you’d get that in remainers wildest dreams but maybe you’d get somewhere close if they learned from past mistakes and ran an effective campaign.

I'd be pretty sure Remain would win with that sort of margin under some conditions.

First a exact definition of the ONE alternative and exactly what it entails.

- May's deal is only a medium term transitional arrangement , there is no guarantee that the EU will continue to give the UK the same deal afterwards.

- Hard Brexit , make it clear that the concessions given by the EU are only there to facilitate the EU and can be removed at any time.

Other deals are just NOT on offer. EEA / Norway mean Schengen which is a complete non-starter in the UK.

Any PLUS deal means renegotiation and getting the EU to give concessions to Norway or Canada. Fantasy unless the UK are willing to give massive concessions.

The other condition is a little harder, holding the liars accountable so it's a fair campaign.

Zubeneschamali · 23-03-2019 07:06PM

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

I'm wondering how many people who keep quoting this would be happy if the god botherers started calling for a fresh referendum on divorce in Ireland, it was passed by a small margin after all.

Yes, I would be delighted to stamp them into the dirt 90-10 this time.

Zubeneschamali · 23-03-2019 07:16PM

fly_agaric wrote: »

It is hard to know (as you said they have not wanted to talk about any preparations for "no deal" at all for political reasons - stock answer to these questions for a long while now is the agreement is negotiated, UK should just get on with it & ratify it).

Have a read of this from December in which Coveney and Varadkar simultaneously state that:

a) plans are in hand for no deal border and

b) there are no such plans

The Government has refused to reveal if it has any plans for a hard border amid growing fears that the country is sleepwalking into a no-deal Brexit crisis.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Tánaiste Simon Coveney denied the existence of any hard-border plan, despite announcing “accelerated” no-deal contingency measures to protect Ireland.
In a memo outlined at Cabinet yesterday, Mr Varadkar and Mr Coveney said due to the increasing problems in Britain, Ireland must “ramp up” its worst-case Brexit plans.

Given all department secretaries generals amended draft laws to cope with a no-deal Brexit;
Set aside Dáil and Seanad time in January to make emergency legal changes before the March 29 Brexit date;
Announced an “acceleration” of recruitment of customs officials, with hundreds more people expected to join the already 200 new recruits in the sector;
Confirmed the existence of unpublished emergency plans to ensure Irish and European planes will still be able to fly over Britain once the UK is removed from the open skies EU policy;
Put in place greater protections for businesses and farmers at most risk from a no-deal Brexit.

A hard border is the worst case scenario — meaning it is the key reason for any contingency planning.
However, both Mr Varadkar and Mr Coveney denied they have any plans in place for the return of a hard border.

An Ciarraioch · 23-03-2019 07:17PM

In semi Brexit-related news:

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1109492685872816133

Zubeneschamali · 23-03-2019 07:20PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

I'd be pretty sure Remain would win with that sort of margin under some conditions.

First a exact definition of the ONE alternative and exactly what it entails.

- May's deal is only a medium term transitional arrangement , there is no guarantee that the EU will continue to give the UK the same deal afterwards.

- Hard Brexit , make it clear that the concessions given by the EU are only there to facilitate the EU and can be removed at any time.

Other deals are just NOT on offer. EEA / Norway mean Schengen which is a complete non-starter in the UK.

Any PLUS deal means renegotiation and getting the EU to give concessions to Norway or Canada. Fantasy unless the UK are willing to give massive concessions.

The other condition is a little harder, holding the liars accountable so it's a fair campaign.

This is all completely untrue.

eire4 · 23-03-2019 07:21PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

In semi Brexit-related news:

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1109492685872816133

They actually applauded that wow .That is bad even for Fine Gael. Thankfully no chance of that happening.

Zubeneschamali · 23-03-2019 07:22PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

In semi Brexit-related news:

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1109492685872816133

Very polite of them.

Laois_Man · 23-03-2019 07:24PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The lack of any need to do so. The referendum result us already the one they want.

Why a march from Sunderland then?

Imreoir2 · 23-03-2019 07:24PM

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

I'm wondering how many people who keep quoting this would be happy if the god botherers started calling for a fresh referendum on divorce in Ireland, it was passed by a small margin after all.

If we get tens of thousands of people marching in Dublin on the issue, and opinion polls indicating 45-60% in favour of changing the decision, then sure, lets put it to the vote.

PokeHerKing · 23-03-2019 07:26PM

Strazdas wrote:

Not a single opinion poll since around Spring 2017 has shown Leave with a lead. For them to be talking about "democracy" and "the will of the people" and using that as the main justification for everything they do is a bit rich.

I could be wrong but I don't think there was any opinion polls that had leave with a lead before the vote?

Try to live in the centre on things, extremests either side of divides are as bad as each other.

Hurrache · 23-03-2019 07:29PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

In semi Brexit-related news:

http://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1109492685872816133

The applause was explained as a warm welcome to a DUP member addressing a FG meeting.

I don't for one moment believe the implication that they're applauding the suggestion and idea of rejoining the commonwealth.

eire4 · 23-03-2019 07:35PM

Hurrache wrote: »

The applause was explained as a warm welcome to a DUP member addressing a FG meeting.

I don't for one moment believe the implication that they're applauding the suggestion and idea of rejoining the commonwealth.

I sure hope your right because that would be appalling considering what a bigoted party Donaldson is a member of and I am not even talking about their views on Ireland.

FrancieBrady · 23-03-2019 07:38PM

Hurrache wrote: »

The applause was explained as a warm welcome to a DUP member addressing a FG meeting.

I don't for one moment believe the implication that they're applauding the suggestion and idea of rejoining the commonwealth.

There are plenty in Fine Gael who would want to (John Bruton types)

fash · 23-03-2019 07:41PM

KildareP wrote: »

Problem is they can't openly state that they are preparing or accepting that a No Deal is a very high possibility because the UK will be all over it accusing the Irish Government - and by extension, the EU - of all sorts, not acting in good faith, sabotaging negotiations, undermining trust, etc.

Hence the what appear to be contradictory-to-reality statements coming from Leinster House. There's what's happening in the background and there's what's being fed to the frontline for negotiation purposes.

One thing I'm not sure about is why the Irish government didn't say:
"We have no plans to erect a hard border: one will not be required because we fully expect that even in a no deal situation, the UK will devise a way to ensure one is not needed. We have every confidence in our British colleagues"
It leads everything back to the UK and its actions and as a response doesn't have contradictions or permit detailed interrogation.

Timberrrrrrrr · 23-03-2019 07:43PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, I would be delighted to stamp them into the dirt 90-10 this time.

I agree that yes these days it would be a hammering hence there won't be one, but it was close! If they had called for one a year or 3 later saying it was too close would people have agreed to a 2nd?

Fwiw i live in the UK and hope this mess gets sorted sensibly (no leave, soft leave if they absolutely decide they are leaving )

The Rape of Lucretia · 23-03-2019 07:45PM

Calina wrote: »

Why are you so terrified of a second vote?

That line is a bit like the playground taunt of coward, to someone who doesnt want to fight.
Of course Leave could lose. So much better to hold onto your win than say , what tge hell, lets compete again. The problem is the Remainers marching and petitiining because they cant accept tge first result. This is what has poisoned tge leave negotiations and implementation of it - people still arguing like its 3 years ago. Both 'the people' and the commons.

sink · 23-03-2019 07:47PM

eire4 wrote: »

They actually applauded that wow .That is bad even for Fine Gael. Thankfully no chance of that happening.

I don't see any rational reason to be anti-commonwealth. It's a good opportunity for Ireland to enhance relations with many African and South Asian nations. We don't have strong economic ties with those regions, so there is a lot of room for expansion. There is absolutely no harm in it.

Capt'n Midnight · 23-03-2019 07:50PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This is all completely untrue.

Please elaborate.

eire4 · 23-03-2019 07:58PM

sink wrote: »

I don't see any rational reason to be anti-commonwealth. It's a good opportunity for Ireland to enhance relations with many African and South Asian nations. We don't have strong economic ties with those regions, so there is a lot of room for expansion. There is absolutely no harm in it.

We can enhance relations with many Asian and African countries ourselves if we chose. We don't need the British to hold our hand to do it.

trashcan · 23-03-2019 08:01PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

That line is a bit like the playground taunt of coward, to someone who doesnt want to fight.
Of course Leave could lose. So much better to hold onto your win than say , what tge hell, lets compete again. The problem is the Remainers marching and petitiining because they cant accept tge first result. This is what has poisoned tge leave negotiations and implementation of it - people still arguing like its 3 years ago. Both 'the people' and the commons.

The problem with that is that this isn't a game. It's not a football match as someone said earlier, or the Eurovision Song Contest. There are real implications for people's lives and livliehoods at stake here. I think it's fairly evident that three years ago an awful lot of people didn't appreciate fully what they were voting for three years ago. (Many still don't seem to) Having walked to the precipice and peered over now, shouldn't they be asked, "Are you sure you really want to jump ?"

Strazdas · 23-03-2019 08:02PM

sink wrote: »

I don't see any rational reason to be anti-commonwealth. It's a good opportunity for Ireland to enhance relations with many African and South Asian nations. We don't have strong economic ties with those regions, so there is a lot of room for expansion. There is absolutely no harm in it.

I'd be inclined to agree. Why is it okay for countries like India, Pakistan and Nigeria to be members of the Commonwealth and to be totally relaxed about it?

What's so special about us and why have we gotten it into our heads that the Commonwealth is somehow toxic?

Irish Praetorian · 23-03-2019 08:07PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I could be wrong but I don't think there was any opinion polls that had leave with a lead before the vote?

Try to live in the centre on things, extremests either side of divides are as bad as each other.

Not true, not true in a STARTLING way.

Also for everyone's benefit, the current polling would give Remain a 5-10 point lead over Leave, which hasn't really broken above evens for about a year now.

eire4 · 23-03-2019 08:07PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I'd be inclined to agree. Why is it okay for countries like India, Pakistan and Nigeria to be members of the Commonwealth and to be totally relaxed about it?

What's so special about us and why have we gotten it into our heads that the Commonwealth is somehow toxic?

Because they are thousands of Kilometer's away from Britain they do not have any part of their countries still ruled by Britain who during this whole Brexit fiasco have shown once again their true colours when it comes to Ireland. Never mind I would never want to be part of any organization that has a government as incompetent as the British have shown themselves to be during Brexit as it's head.

ancapailldorcha · 23-03-2019 08:09PM

Unfortunately, while hundreds of thousands were marching against Brexit today Jeremy Corbyn decided to visit Morecambe for a local election campaign:

https://www.lancasterguardian.co.uk/news/jeremy-corbyn-to-visit-morecambe-as-labour-unveils-bold-ambitious-blueprint-for-a-brighter-future-1-9667536

Meanwhile, Margaret Georgiadou who started the petition which broke 4 million signatures has received death threats:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-47678275

Joe_ Public · 23-03-2019 08:09PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

That line is a bit like the playground taunt of coward, to someone who doesnt want to fight.
Of course Leave could lose. So much better to hold onto your win than say , what tge hell, lets compete again. The problem is the Remainers marching and petitiining because they cant accept tge first result. This is what has poisoned tge leave negotiations and implementation of it - people still arguing like its 3 years ago. Both 'the people' and the commons.

Well, posterity is going to cast a very cold eye over the uk’s negotiating strategy, that’s for sure. Based on the guiding principle of going in strong, keeping no deal alive for maximum leverage, selling a con about the eu blinking at 5 minutes to midnight on deadline day (when they had the conflicting lesson of Cameron’s failed negotiations to draw them out of their delusion. Nobody - friend or foe, staunch leaver or ardent remainer - forced TM into her blasted red lines that put unnecessary road blocks on many of the options a fair consensus could have been found on. The strife over the backstop was pretty much all her own doing. All that has very little to do with the remain side.

FrancieBrady · 23-03-2019 08:12PM

eire4 wrote: »

Because they are thousands of Kilometer's away from Britain they do not have any part of their countries still ruled by Britain who during this whole Brexit fiasco have shown once again their true colours when it comes to Ireland. Never mind I would never want to be part of any organization that has a government as incompetent as the British have shown themselves to be during Brexit as it's head.

We are a republic as well, why would we join an organisation that has an elite monarch as it's head?

Capt'n Midnight · 23-03-2019 08:21PM

eire4 wrote: »

We can enhance relations with many Asian and African countries ourselves if we chose. We don't need the British to hold our hand to do it.

Thanks to being non aligned we've been able to sell beef to many countries in the Middle East

Shannon has been used as refuelling point for both the Americans and the Russians. b

briany · 23-03-2019 08:22PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

That line is a bit like the playground taunt of coward, to someone who doesnt want to fight.
Of course Leave could lose. So much better to hold onto your win than say , what tge hell, lets compete again. The problem is the Remainers marching and petitiining because they cant accept tge first result. This is what has poisoned tge leave negotiations and implementation of it - people still arguing like its 3 years ago. Both 'the people' and the commons.

Firstly, Brexit is not the school playground, although the insults hurled back and forth may fool a person into believing it is.

Secondly, Remainers no more reject the result of the ref than Brexit supporters would have, if you flipped the result of the vote. Brexit supporters were not on board with the European project before the referendum, so why would they have been on board with it after? Farage is on record as saying that a close loss in the ref would have made Brexit unfinished business by a long way.

Thirdly, the process of Brexit has evolved as its gone on. It wasn't initially intended that the HoC would be as in control of the process as it has become, for example. It was supposed to be a crack negotiating team dispatched to Brussels who would hash out a good deal for the UK. The reason why the Meaningful Vote came about was because this plan was ruled to be illegal. In fact, Brexit has been subject to many votes since A50's invocation. They've just been taken by the UK parliament rather than their people. Those votes are fine, for some reason, whereas another referendum is taboo....

Fourthly, the problems with such a slim majority have been patently clear. Brexit supporters claim a majority, but yet they're having an awful time pressing that advantage home. It's like they can't seem to understand the problem. There is no 'getting on board with it'. This doesn't happen in politics. If it did, virtually every political project would be a rousing success, or at least meet its objectives, nefarious or not. But people's views don't change. A British Conservative who votes for the Conservatives in a Labour landslide is likely to continue to support their chosen party. In Ireland, an anti-abortion campaigner is unlikely to get on board with abortion. They're as likely to keep the laws on it as tight as their political pressure allows. People's views don't change on an outcome. This, combined with the slim majority has made Brexit what it is.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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