Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Inquitus · 22-03-2019 06:45PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Supposedly by tacking an amendment onto it to make it seem different or by a parliamentary resolution. Wasn’t a problem really, but think it might be moot now because I’d have my doubts it’ll go before the house even as part of the indicative votes process. Just seems like another unnecessary humiliation for pm at this stage.

I think they really need to let it go to vote one more time now, per the EU's guidance, to either stand or fall, and then be done with it. It will rubberstamp either their exit if passed, or more likely it is a necessary stepping stone to Parliament taking control and coming up with a softer proposal to take to Brussels in the run up to 12th April.

prawnsambo · 22-03-2019 07:00PM

Here's some of the Operation Yellowhammer risk assessment of no deal that was leaked to The Guardian

Edit: Couldn't hot link it, here it is now.

Inquitus · 22-03-2019 07:08PM

Link to the full Operation Yellowhammer ppt

fash · 22-03-2019 07:08PM

Sue de Nimes wrote: »

The term "double first" is informally used by Oxford graduates. The usage is widespread enough for Wikipedia to include it

"A "double first" at Oxford usually informally refers to first-class honours in both components of an undergraduate degree, i.e. Moderations/Prelims and the Final Honour School, or in both the bachelor's and master's components of an integrated master's degree."

Rather than Hannan being wrong, he was simply using an informal term that is widely used.

Something of an indictment of the the British education system.

charlie14 · 22-03-2019 07:10PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

A lot of very good points there and pretty much on the money for me. I would just add that I would certainly not blame any rational resident from the north of England for voting leave. I spend a bit of time over and back and seeing how hard Cameron’s austerity cuts have bitten is a bracing experience. They’ve seen basic services butchered, high streets being boarded up and yet people down south and on the capital seem to them to be thriving. I feel their visceral anger and blame the usual political elements for feeding off it.

Cameron`s austerity were a follow on from earlier savaging of the north of England by a previous Tory PM. Margaret Thatcher.
As it was elements of the Tory party who were the cheerleaders for leave then I feel it difficult to have a lot of sympathy for those in the north of England who voted leave.
I doubt there are many who had not heard the expression fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.

54and56 · 22-03-2019 07:13PM

weemcd wrote: »

IMO, this is the most worrying trend worldwide at the moment. People have absolutely no ability for critical thought, they simply have sides or teams, whatever you want to call it and blindly follow a pre-set ideology. And it's getting worse, more entrenched.

Spot on. It's tribal and fundamentalist. They nail their colours to an idealistic mast and close their mind to any information which challenges that position regardless of the cost to them personally or society as a whole.

Trump very successfully tapped into that mindset as did Farage/Hard Brexiteers and no amount of impartial evidence or information will change that mantra.

It may effectually disprove Evolution!!

Enzokk · 22-03-2019 07:13PM

Shelga wrote: »

Why does no one ever ask the DUP- "ok, you advocated a Leave vote, what is your solution?" They get away with sniping from the sidelines, day after day after day. I'm so sick of listening to them.

They are just as culpable for this mess as they like to say May and her government are, and they need to be treated as such by the media.

I think they have been asked and their deal has been rejected. I am in no doubt the UK negotiators have asked the EU if they could have all the benefits and none of the downsides of EU membership. They may not have used those words but what do you think the rejection of current technology to rule out the border was?

That DUP statement is Brexit unicornism all rolled up in one. It has all the wishes of the Brexiters in a statement. The UK will get all they want and all they had to do was wait until the last moment to get it. What happens when they don't, which is what happened, is dismissed and they can continue living in their dream world. I blame Theresa May and the Tories for this. They have allowed the DUP to make a mockery of politics in NI and allowed them to waste away NI taxpayer money without consequences. The DUP feel they are untouchable because the Conservatives are treating them as such. NI is still part of the UK and if the corruption and waste from the Ash for Cash scandal was in any other part of the UK heads would have rolled. Because it is in NI they have been allowed to get away with it and all parties in NI is aware that there is no consequences to being incompetent. That incompetence is now wagging the tail of the Conservative majority. What is the response? Appoint Karen Bradley as SoS for NI.

It is incompetence stacked on top of incompetence and it would have been funny if it wasn't our lives that would have been affected as severely.

arccosh wrote: »

question...

How is this 3rd vote supposed to go ahead? I thought the speaker of the house pretty much stopped any potential of that?

The EU has given the Speaker his out as well by saying that there will be no 4th vote from their side either. They will not grant an extension for May to keep holding votes on her deal. Say what you want about the EU but Tusk seems to be very astute in his handling of crises that has happened under his watch. Can you imagine if there was a slightly more hard line president in charge instead of Tusk? We could have had one country exit the euro and we would be staring at no-deal in a weeks time.

ThunbergsAreGo · 22-03-2019 07:16PM

weemcd wrote: »

IMO, this is the most worrying trend worldwide at the moment. People have absolutely no ability for critical thought, they simply have sides or teams, whatever you want to call it and blindly follow a pre-set ideology. And it's getting worse, more entrenched.

Has this not always been the case?

CelticRambler · 22-03-2019 07:19PM

mrbrianj wrote: »

No deal wont be the long term status, within a few month of mild chaos - but before things get all Mad Max, there will be quite announcements of the new trading and travel partnership between the EU and UK ( and new laws to protect uk consumers etc.). The UK 'people' will be happy in the knowledge that they stuck it to the EU, and got what they wanted - which is slightly less than they had, and to their minds they have "won".

If the "UK people" are getting their info from a Europhobic press, I doubt very much that they'll think they've won. What we saw yesterday is going to be typical of EU-UK negotiations in the future: Brussels will ask the UK what it wants, politely listen to the waffle, then tell the UK what it's getting.

Strazdas · 22-03-2019 07:25PM

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

Spot on. It's tribal and fundamentalist. They nail their colours to an idealistic mast and close their mind to any information which challenges that position regardless of the cost to them personally or society as a whole.

Trump very successfully tapped into that mindset as did Farage/Hard Brexiteers and no amount of impartial evidence or information will change that mantra.

It may effectually disprove Evolution!!

It was never evidence based. Brexit was always an ideology or belief system. It's impossible to snap the Leave voters out of the ideology as they are wedded to it. The only thing that could bring them to their senses would be the country falling apart around them.

Itssoeasy · 22-03-2019 07:28PM

I tried to have sympathy for the ordinary people who voted to leave because I think they were sold a pup on what leaving the EU would mean. But then I hear business people say that a no deal Brexit could be catastrophic to their businesses due to delays in goods getting to Britain if its a no deal, yet they still are glad they voted to leave.

Strazdas · 22-03-2019 07:32PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I tried to have sympathy for the ordinary people who voted to leave because I think they were sold a pup on what leaving the EU would mean. But then I hear business people say that a no deal Brexit could be catastrophic to their businesses due to delays in goods getting to Britain if its a no deal, yet they still are glad they voted to leave.

Problem is the same people can't even admit they were lied to. Where is the backlash against Farage, Boris etc? It's simply not happening.

There is a huge amount of denial going on surrounding the whole thing.

Harry Palmr · 22-03-2019 07:36PM

That will have sweeping powers to intervene and order emergency measures, including mobilising the military, and getting rid of regulations if necessary, the document suggests.

“The committee will be available to take an overview of the situation and make any relevant decisions including on the following areas but not limited to legislation, identifying funding opportunities, allocation of national level resources (such as military, law enforcement or civil service resources, direction of government bodies and relaxation of regulations required at the ministerial level.”

Operation Yellowhammer actually has the potential for a sort of coup. As it could be used to justify the installing of a "permanent" government. Not necessarily this May led admin but something containing the ERG. Are we ready for President Rees-Mogg?

Shelga · 22-03-2019 07:52PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I tried to have sympathy for the ordinary people who voted to leave because I think they were sold a pup on what leaving the EU would mean. But then I hear business people say that a no deal Brexit could be catastrophic to their businesses due to delays in goods getting to Britain if its a no deal, yet they still are glad they voted to leave.

I’m done with ‘respecting the votes of Leavers’- that’s all well and good if you’re a British MP and you have to pretend in public that you respect their vote. But I’m Irish and I live in Ireland, and I’m tired of Leavers not giving a hoot about what their idiotic irresponsibility is doing to other people’s lives, small businesses, the Irish economy, EU citizens, etc. Just listened to some rabid leaver foaming at the mouth on LBC right now, saying leave means leaving the single market and the customs union. That wasn’t on the ballot paper, so I don’t really care what his interpretation of it is.

Hard Brexiters don’t care about other people, so I don’t respect their vote and I don’t respect them as people. Enough. Enough of trying to destroy other people’s lives and economies.

dresden8 · 22-03-2019 07:53PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Operation Yellowhammer actually has the potential for a sort of coup. As it could be used to justify the installing of a "permanent" government. Not necessarily this May led admin but something containing the ERG. Are we ready for President Rees-Mogg?

It has an air of an Enabling Act about it all right.

prawnsambo · 22-03-2019 08:07PM

Shelga wrote: »

I’m done with ‘respecting the votes of Leavers’- that’s all well and good if you’re a British MP and you have to pretend in public that you respect their vote. But I’m Irish and I live in Ireland, and I’m tired of Leavers not giving a hoot about what their idiotic irresponsibility is doing to other people’s lives, small businesses, the Irish economy, EU citizens, etc. Just listened to some rabid leaver foaming at the mouth on LBC right now, saying leave means leaving the single market and the customs union. That wasn’t on the ballot paper, so I don’t really care what his interpretation of it is.

Hard Brexiters don’t care about other people, so I don’t respect their vote and I don’t respect them as people. Enough. Enough of trying to destroy other people’s lives and economies.

I think I listened to the same one. There are no words to describe the stupidity. The thing is though, it's driven by anger. And that anger has been fuelled by decades of political disenfranchisement. I can sympathise with that.

cml387 · 22-03-2019 08:19PM

Reading the Guardian's leaked report about Operation Yellowhammer, it just strikes me that they bear some resemblance to the plans for the onset of war.

I would not be at all surprised if someone in Whitehall has taken out of the safe the "Warbook". It would make sense from the point of view of contingency planning for civil disturbance, food distribution, protection of transport links and continuation of government in extreme circumstances.

Inquitus · 22-03-2019 08:21PM

May's letter to MP's of this evening, worth a read, won't bother with MV3 if it has no chance of passing:

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1109168282249109504

MrMusician18 · 22-03-2019 08:22PM

dresden8 wrote: »

It has an air of an Enabling Act about it all right.

When I had a look at it, I thought it sounded a lot like preparation for war.
Now I'm not suggesting that at all, but it seems they expect that this event could seemingly do war like damage to their economy.

Oftentimes when something historic is happening it's not obvious to those living through it and only with time do we recognise the significance of events. Not with this, we are truly witnessing something that historians will ponder over for years.

Joe_ Public · 22-03-2019 08:30PM

Inquitus wrote: »

May's letter to MP's of this evening, worth a read, won't bother with MV3 if it has no chance of passing:

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1109168282249109504

Thats why i dont think they'll bring the mv forward at all. What's the point? The dup was the final nail in the coffin, although i think it was goosed anyway from the moment she made her incendiary speech on wednesday night. Not bringing it before the house seems exactly the same as it failing, only she doesn't have to suffer the appalling humiliation of seeing it fail by an even bigger margin again.

Water John · 22-03-2019 08:32PM

Hopefully the latest visit to her compatriots in Brussels has been an eye opener for her.

Spanish Eyes · 22-03-2019 08:34PM

dresden8 wrote: »

It has an air of an Enabling Act about it all right.

Maybe that was the plan all along by the nameless faceless suits.

Sorry it is Friday, time for a large drink now. I might see things a bit clearer after that. :P But there will still be no sense made of this debacle will there?

cml387 · 22-03-2019 08:40PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

When I had a look at it, I thought it sounded a lot like preparation for war.
Now I'm not suggesting that at all, but it seems they expect that this event could seemingly do war like damage to their economy.

Oftentimes when something historic is happening it's not obvious to those living through it and only with time do we recognise the significance of events. Not with this, we are truly witnessing something that historians will ponder over for years.

I'm of an age when I remember various British government crises.
During the 1970's it was a genuinely held fear by many senior civil servants, and senior Bank Of England officials, that a collapse of the economy and the failure civil power was only weeks away, with an inflation rate of over 20% and a hideous government deficit.
Mainly it was solved by strong leadership by some key figures who were, in the that cliched term, statesmen, the likes of Dennis Healy and Jim Callaghan.

What I don't remember ever happening is the complete failure of the party in power to maintain any semblance of control over itself.
There is a giant black hole at the centre of government in the UK. Ministers are now making up policy on the hoof and the prime minister doesn't even have the support of the chief whip.

Enzokk · 22-03-2019 08:41PM

Inquitus wrote: »

May's letter to MP's of this evening, worth a read, won't bother with MV3 if it has no chance of passing:

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1109168282249109504

No apology for her speech on Wednesday, only an acknowledgement that she never intended to make their jobs more difficult. So she still blames them for the inaction though.

We will have interviews with May in a few years time where she steadfastly says into a camera that her deal would have worked had MPs just voted for it and will deny any personal responsibility for the chaos caused. You will then feel sorry for her that she is that delusional and obviously not in touch with reality.

Joe_ Public · 22-03-2019 08:44PM

Enzokk wrote: »

No apology for her speech on Wednesday, only an acknowledgement that she never intended to make their jobs more difficult. So she still blames them for the inaction though.

We will have interviews with May in a few years time where she steadfastly says into a camera that her deal would have worked had MPs just voted for it and will deny any personal responsibility for the chaos caused. You will then feel sorry for her that she is that delusional and obviously not in touch with reality.

There was a reporter on the bbc this morning saying that apparently TM's spin doctors and speech writers were strutting around the commons bars on wednesday night, proud as peacocks, thinking they'd just pulled off a savvy and ingenious political stunt. The mind boggles as to what is going on inside these peoples heads. Delusional hardly beings to cover it.

Inquitus · 22-03-2019 08:49PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

There was a reporter on the bbc this morning saying that apparently TM's spin doctors and speech writers were strutting around the commons bars on wednesday night, proud as peacocks, thinking they'd just pulled off a savvy and ingenious political stunt. The mind boggles as to what is going on inside these peoples heads. Delusional hardly beings to cover it.

Aye its crazy, most people on here immediately called it out as a dreadful speech, that was tone deaf, and likely to have repercussions, and we are just Irish internet folks with an interest in politics, not supposed experts with our finger on the pulse of the nation and its MPs!

cml387 · 22-03-2019 08:55PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye its crazy, most people on here immediately called it out as a dreadful speech, that was tone deaf, and likely to have repercussions, and we are just Irish internet folks with an interest in politics, not supposed experts with our finger on the pulse of the nation and its MPs!

I can also imagine the atmosphere in No 10 this evening, with those spin doctors being assailed by all sides other spin doctors who argued passionately against the speech and are now loudly proclaiming "I told you so" at the top of their voices, adding to the general sense of chaos.

The absence of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill from Teresa May's entourage is a major factor in her meltdown I think.They were purged in the aftermath of the election.

Spanish Eyes · 22-03-2019 08:59PM

Inquitus wrote: »

May's letter to MP's of this evening, worth a read, won't bother with MV3 if it has no chance of passing:

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1109168282249109504

So there we are now. It was inevitable once DUP said no.

But Parliament now must take control surely since NO DEAL has been rejected by them, albeit in a non binding vote, but still.

Joe_ Public · 22-03-2019 09:00PM

cml387 wrote: »

I can also imagine the atmosphere in No 10 this evening, with those spin doctors being assailed by all sides other spin doctors who argued passionately against the speech and are now loudly proclaiming "I told you so" at the top of their voices, adding to the general sense of chaos.

The absence of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill from Teresa May's entourage is a major factor in her meltdown I think.They were purged in the aftermath of the election.

They might have helped in some areas but Timothy and Hill seemed toxic, Hill was directly responsible for the "trousergate" debacle, maybe not a huge thing in the overall scheme of things, but it showed her chronic inability to grasp the key details. My overriding impression is that May is unmanageable, unable to take counsel and stubbornly determined not to accept responsibility for her most egregious of cock-ups. Finding it hard to see very many redeeming qualities in her, doesn't even seem to be a very nice person when it comes down to it by most accounts.

Enzokk · 22-03-2019 09:01PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

There was a reporter on the bbc this morning saying that apparently TM's spin doctors and speech writers were strutting around the commons bars on wednesday night, proud as peacocks, thinking they'd just pulled off a savvy and ingenious political stunt. The mind boggles as to what is going on inside these peoples heads. Delusional hardly beings to cover it.

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye its crazy, most people on here immediately called it out as a dreadful speech, that was tone deaf, and likely to have repercussions, and we are just Irish internet folks with an interest in politics, not supposed experts with our finger on the pulse of the nation and its MPs!

It is easy pickings to show her shortcomings as there are many and they are easy to spot. If you look at her team that she relies on she is very much like Thatcher was, while a woman in the top job she is not a beacon for woman's empowerment in the workplace. Of the 15 or so places in her team only 3 is taken up by woman and none by a minority. That is white pale and male in the main.

She also hired the journalist from the Daily Mail that wrote the "Enemies of the People" headline. She sees him fit for a job at No.10?

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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