Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42 · 22-03-2019 04:06PM

I hadn't seen that video before, but when you look at that it isn't hard to understand why so many people voted for Brexit. When senior politicians are telling people how easy and beneficial it all will be then why wouldn't they take them at their word?

For all this talk of "failure of democracy if the will of the people is not followed" stuff that is pedaled out, what really damages democracy is when those involved in it, the politicians etc blatantly lie and deceive the people and suffer no consequences.

Leroy42 · 22-03-2019 04:10PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Whatever about EEA membership and its business/trade advantages to UK, the FOM issue is one thing that many Brexiters do NOT want, no matter what. Well that and vassalage.

Tricky.

Well they claim they don't want it. However, when asked why, or to give details of what needs to change it all starts to fall apart somewhat.

They want the end of FoM as it has been sold to them; that hoards of immigrants are coming from all over the EU to take the houses, the beds in the hospitals, the school and university places and the benefits. And also the jobs.

But the facts simply don't back that position up. The minumum hours contracts jobs are nothing to do with immigration. The ability of companies like Amazon to treat their workers like employees but pay them as contractors has nothing to do with FoM.

So even the claim that they want the end of FoM does not stand up to scrutiny.

PokeHerKing · 22-03-2019 04:12PM

Leroy42 wrote:

I hadn't seen that video before, but when you look at that it isn't hard to understand why so many people voted for Brexit. When senior politicians are telling people how easy and beneficial it all will be then why wouldn't they take them at their word?

I don't agree. If you're an idiot with delusions of grandeur and a complete lack of even a basic understanding of what the EU is (there's a clue in the name). Then yes, I can see how you voted for Brexit based off the above video.

Joe_ Public · 22-03-2019 04:13PM

fash wrote: »

David Davis foresaw all of this - don't you remember his "chessboard" speech:

https://mobile.twitter.com/propertyspot/status/1108155476011900928

There’s a certain comedic aspect to watching stuff like that now - and god knows there must be a veritable treasure trove of it - but the depressing thing is that most of them still won’t admit they were grievously wrong. The default position is something like, oh no, we got it totally right but the refusal of others to submit to the will of the people made it impossible for us to do our job, project fear, talking down britain etc ad nauseum. You’ll never win with them.

22-03-2019 04:15PM

If they admit they were wrong or deliberately told huge lies it could split the party. Unity is all that matters.

fash · 22-03-2019 04:15PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well they claim they don't want it. However, when asked why, or to give details of what needs to change it all starts to fall apart somewhat.

They want the end of FoM as it has been sold to them; that hoards of immigrants are coming from all over the EU to take the houses, the beds in the hospitals, the school and university places and the benefits. And also the jobs.

But the facts simply don't back that position up. The minumum hours contracts jobs are nothing to do with immigration. The ability of companies like Amazon to treat their workers like employees but pay them as contractors has nothing to do with FoM.

So even the claim that they want the end of FoM does not stand up to scrutiny.

Especially when you consider that 2/3rds of the migration even then had nothing to do with the EU - and that EU migration tended to be more temporary - EU citizens can easily go back home or to Germany or retire to Spain as stay in the UK. Migrants from non EU states cannot.

Inquitus · 22-03-2019 04:15PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Whatever about EEA membership and its business/trade advantages to UK, the FOM issue is one thing that many Brexiters do NOT want, no matter what. Well that and vassalage.

Tricky.

They conflate EU migration with non EU migration sadly, most of the migration they intensely dislike is nothing whatsoever to do with the EU and will not be resolved by leaving the EU. As has been proven EU migration is, and always has been, a net benefit to the Exchequer, as well as providing people to do much needed jobs in the NHS or picking fruit or whatever.

Joe_ Public · 22-03-2019 04:17PM

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

If they admit they were wrong or deliberately told huge lies it could split the party. Unity is all that matters.

I agree but “could” split the party? If they call what they have at the moment unity, I’d hate to actually see the tories in crisis.

Spanish Eyes · 22-03-2019 04:19PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well they claim they don't want it. However, when asked why, or to give details of what needs to change it all starts to fall apart somewhat.

They want the end of FoM as it has been sold to them; that hoards of immigrants are coming from all over the EU to take the houses, the beds in the hospitals, the school and university places and the benefits. And also the jobs.

But the facts simply don't back that position up. The minumum hours contracts jobs are nothing to do with immigration. The ability of companies like Amazon to treat their workers like employees but pay them as contractors has nothing to do with FoM.

So even the claim that they want the end of FoM does not stand up to scrutiny.

I agree with your point, but sadly the folk to whom you refer just refuse to analyse things to that degree at all. It is visceral IMV.

From stats I have read recently, there has been far more immigration from third countries than from EU during the A50 period. That's the opposite of what many Brexiters understood would happen.

Infini · 22-03-2019 04:20PM

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

If they admit they were wrong or deliberately told huge lies it could split the party. Unity is all that matters.

Unfortunately they're trying to keep the party unified between those with some cop on and those who are effectively UKIP grade subversives. The Brexiteers should have been ejected from the party years ago same with the ERG trolls. Now its coming back to bite them in the áss as a national laughing stock. Would be better to be rid of the headbanger wing of that party if they want to survive long term.

Leroy42 · 22-03-2019 04:23PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I don't agree. If you're an idiot with delusions of grandeur and a complete lack of even a basic understanding of what the EU is (there's a clue in the name). Then yes, I can see how you voted for Brexit based off the above video.

Well, there is the saying that there is one born every minute. In terms of politics, it really is amazing the level of apathy across society. It is not represented on a thread like this, but even in my family and friends the level of disengagement is high.

Coupled with that, in the UK they have been fed a diet of the "evil EU" both the media and the politicians for years.

EU is so big, and in many ways so distant, that it is hard to see the direct impact. In Ireland it is far easier. Our economy, our society, our culture have all changed in line with our membership (not exactly of course but when looks back pre 1970 and now it is easy to assume that the EU played a major role).

But the same is not true in the UK. Sure London and other parts have gained, but even in those parts that have gained, like Sunderland etc, there has been massive failures so that the benefits of EU trade are outweighed by the lack of investment. But the benefits (car manufacturing for eg) is sold as down to the government, whilst the negatives (dropping standards in NHS, lack of police, lack of housing etc) is all pushed onto the blame of the faceless EU bureaucrats.

And people tend to give people within the media, and within politics, a certain level of deference. Just because of where they are rather than what they have done. When you are faced with seeing JRM on every news channel, being asked earnest questions and coming across as intelligent and educated and on top of his brief, then it is natural to assume that he must know what he is talking about. And when they are never challenged then it must be true right? Surely the media wouldn't just let people make stuff up, because normal people can't just make up stuff and expect to get away with it.

It is not about people being stupid, it is people being a mixture of ill-informed, un-involved and having a trust that someone else will sort it out.

Inquitus · 22-03-2019 04:23PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I agree with your point, but sadly the folk to whom you refer just refuse to analyse things to that degree at all. It is visceral IMV.

From stats I have read recently, there has been far more immigration from third countries than from EU during the A50 period. That's the opposite of what many Brexiters understood would happen.

Yep if your are an EU Migrant who does not want to work, there are many better countries in the EU to migrate to, such as Ireland (and many of the other 27), where benefits are much better, EU migrants who go to the UK go to work primarily.

fash · 22-03-2019 04:25PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

There’s a certain comedic aspect to watching stuff like that now - and god knows there must be a veritable treasure trove of it - but the depressing thing is that most of them still won’t admit they were grievously wrong. The default position is something like, oh no, we got it totally right but the refusal of others to submit to the will of the people made it impossible for us to do our job, project fear, talking down britain etc ad nauseum. You’ll never win with them.

the most recent example of "when found out, keep lying anyway" (and towards the most blatant end) being Daniel " (fake) double first" Hannan's history of Ireland:
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1107976482675150848

(Inter alia, Oxford doesn't issue double firsts)

Joe_ Public · 22-03-2019 04:29PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well, there is the saying that there is one born every minute. In terms of politics, it really is amazing the level of apathy across society. It is not represented on a thread like this, but even in my family and friends the level of disengagement is high.

Coupled with that, in the UK they have been fed a diet of the "evil EU" both the media and the politicians for years.

EU is so big, and in many ways so distant, that it is hard to see the direct impact. In Ireland it is far easier. Our economy, our society, our culture have all changed in line with our membership (not exactly of course but when looks back pre 1970 and now it is easy to assume that the EU played a major role).

But the same is not true in the UK. Sure London and other parts have gained, but even in those parts that have gained, like Sunderland etc, there has been massive failures so that the benefits of EU trade are outweighed by the lack of investment. But the benefits (car manufacturing for eg) is sold as down to the government, whilst the negatives (dropping standards in NHS, lack of police, lack of housing etc) is all pushed onto the blame of the faceless EU bureaucrats.

And people tend to give people within the media, and within politics, a certain level of deference. Just because of where they are rather than what they have done. When you are faced with seeing JRM on every news channel, being asked earnest questions and coming across as intelligent and educated and on top of his brief, then it is natural to assume that he must know what he is talking about. And when they are never challenged then it must be true right? Surely the media wouldn't just let people make stuff up, because normal people can't just make up stuff and expect to get away with it.

It is not about people being stupid, it is people being a mixture of ill-informed, un-involved and having a trust that someone else will sort it out.

A lot of very good points there and pretty much on the money for me. I would just add that I would certainly not blame any rational resident from the north of England for voting leave. I spend a bit of time over and back and seeing how hard Cameron’s austerity cuts have bitten is a bracing experience. They’ve seen basic services butchered, high streets being boarded up and yet people down south and on the capital seem to them to be thriving. I feel their visceral anger and blame the usual political elements for feeding off it.

LuckyLloyd · 22-03-2019 04:38PM

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

EU wins itself some breathing space

This is just a complete misrepresentation of what actually happened from Adler. It's not the EU that's in the middle of a political and constitutional meltdown.

That is utterly ridiculous. Adler must be overtly trolling now with that type of transparent spin!

Shelga · 22-03-2019 04:40PM

How many Leave voters can honestly say they would have voted the way they did in 2016, if they could have seen how this was going to play out? Not them saying (pretending) it could have gone differently- if they had seen this exact scenario in the future, would they have voted to leave?

Of course another referendum isn’t good for the country. But if they have one, and Remain wins (still a big if, I know, depending on what question is asked), then Brexit will be in the news a hell of a lot less over the next 5 years than it will be if they vote any other way. If I was an apathetic Leave voter who was just fed up of the whole thing, I could see myself voting Remain just to make this stop.

Of course you’re going to have a significant portion of voters who will view it as a denial of democracy, but I think that argument loses merit if the result is 55%+ for Remain. At those numbers is would start to show that public opinion has genuinely shifted.

boggerman1 · 22-03-2019 04:46PM

Dup going to vote no again.and in other breaking news a bear took a pooh in the woods.

Hurrache · 22-03-2019 04:46PM

Ulster says no. Dodds says it's an excusable failure for May not to get a better deal at this weeks summit and won't vote for her deal next week.

Inquitus · 22-03-2019 04:47PM

DUP not playing ball, full statement at the bottom of quoted section.

DUP accuses May of being 'far too willing to capitulate' to EU
Nigel Dodds, the DUP deputy leader, has released a statement about the EU summit.

Even by DUP standards, it is unusually harsh.

The DUP has accused Theresa May of being “far too willing to capitulate” to the EU. (This is exactly the same as the argument made by Tory Brexiters like Boris Johnson [eg, here], although it is not true to say that the EU always compromises at the last minute in negotiations. David Cameron, the last PM to conduct a major negotiation with the EU, found quite the opposite when he was renegotiating the terms of the UK’s membership.)
The DUP has criticised May for blaming MPs for the Brexit crisis in her speech on Wednesday.
It has played down prospects that it could be persuaded to vote for May’s deal next week, saying “nothing has changed as far as the withdrawal agreement is concerned”.

The prime minister missed an opportunity at the EU Council to put forward proposals which could have improved the prospects of an acceptable withdrawal agreement and help unite the country.

That failure is all the more disappointing and inexcusable given the clear divisions and arguments which became evident amongst EU member states when faced with outcomes they don’t like.

As we have always said, negotiations with the EU inevitably go down to the wire and the government has been far too willing to capitulate before securing the necessary changes which would get an agreement through the House of Commons.

The government has consistently settled for inferior compromises when they didn’t need to and when there was, and is, more negotiating with the EU to be done.

Lectures by the prime minister putting the blame on others cannot disguise the responsibility her government bears for the current debacle and the fact that her agreement has been twice overwhelmingly rejected in parliament.

The prime minister has now agreed with the EU to kick the can down the road for another two weeks and humiliatingly revoke her oft-stated pledge that the UK would leave the EU on 29th March.

Nothing has changed as far as the withdrawal agreement is concerned.

Nothing fundamentally turns on the formal ratification of documents which the attorney general has already said do not change the risk of the UK being trapped in the backstop.

The DUP has been very clear throughout that we want a deal which delivers on the referendum result and which works for all parts of the UK and for the EU as well. But it must be a deal that protects the Union.

That remains our abiding principle. We will not accept any deal which poses a long term risk to the constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom.

Skelet0n · 22-03-2019 04:47PM

Shelga wrote: »

How many Leave voters can honestly say they would have voted the way they did in 2016, if they could have seen how this was going to play out? Not them saying (pretending) it could have gone differently- if they had seen this exact scenario in the future, would they have voted to leave?

Of course another referendum isn’t good for the country. But if they have one, and Remain wins (still a big if, I know, depending on what question is asked), then Brexit will be in the news a hell of a lot less over the next 5 years than it will be if they vote any other way. If I was an apathetic Leave voter who was just fed up of the whole thing, I could see myself voting Remain just to make this stop.

Of course you’re going to have a significant portion of voters who will view it as a denial of democracy, but I think that argument loses merit if the result is 55%+ for Remain. At those numbers is would start to show that public opinion has genuinely shifted.

The guardian did a piece from Wigan, the needle has barely moved. The disabled man living on £10 a month who can’t get a job and would still vote leave at 7:00 is particularly sad.
https://youtu.be/y4uIC0AwD68

WomanSkirtFan8 · 22-03-2019 04:50PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

April 10th, anniversary of the sinking of RMS Titanic
April 12th, anniversary of the sinking of HMG Brexit

Actually the Titanic sank on April 15th 1912 but yeah the irony is indane.

eire4 · 22-03-2019 04:50PM

boggerman1 wrote: »

Dup going to vote no again.and in other breaking news a bear took a pooh in the woods.

I just do not see them getting the votes to overturn a 149 vote deficit from the last vote. As much as I do not want to see a no deal exit for them I am glad the EU made the extension be such a short one as they simply have not and will not get their act together. We cannot have this just drag on and on.

seamus · 22-03-2019 04:50PM

Inquitus wrote: »

DUP not playing ball, full statement at the bottom of quoted section.

The question now is, after deriding her for kicking the can two weeks down the road, will they support the extension agreement in the HoC?

Joe_ Public · 22-03-2019 04:52PM

That’s fine for the dup but if they’re not going to get their obviously preferred option of a no deal, where does that leave them going forward? If parliament takes over from next week what cards have they left to play?

ToBeFrank123 · 22-03-2019 04:53PM

The DUP have May over a barrel as the Conservatives need them to stay in power.

I think a Hard Brexit is inevitable with the DUP holding the balance of power.

If NI voters continue to vote for the DUP after this, there is something seriously wrong with them. Ditto those who continue to vote for Rees-Mogg and the ERG.

Northern Ireland voters are so badly represented by their politicians. In fact they aren't represented at all. Taxation without representation.

Shelga · 22-03-2019 04:58PM

Skelet0n wrote: »

The guardian did a piece from Wigan, the needle has barely moved. The disabled man living on £10 a month who can’t get a job and would still vote leave at 7:00 is particularly sad.
https://youtu.be/y4uIC0AwD68

Yeah, even as I was typing it I knew that a 55% result for Remain is wishful thinking. The only way it’s going to happen is if it’s May’s deal vs Remain as the only two options.

Why, why are they doing this to themselves and to us. Why.

Sue de Nimes · 22-03-2019 04:59PM

fash wrote: »

the most recent example of "when found out, keep lying anyway" (and towards the most blatant end) being Daniel " (fake) double first" Hannan's history of Ireland:
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1107976482675150848

(Inter alia, Oxford doesn't issue double firsts)

The term "double first" is informally used by Oxford graduates. The usage is widespread enough for Wikipedia to include it

"A "double first" at Oxford usually informally refers to first-class honours in both components of an undergraduate degree, i.e. Moderations/Prelims and the Final Honour School, or in both the bachelor's and master's components of an integrated master's degree."

Rather than Hannan being wrong, he was simply using an informal term that is widely used.

Roanmore · 22-03-2019 04:59PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Boards Friendly link below That ages spectacularly badly, its comical in retrospect, in some ways I think it's only in the past few weeks that the blinkers have come off, and the reality is dawning.

https://twitter.com/PropertySpot/status/1108155476011900928

Three years later and Peter Casey was on TV3 last night basically saying the same thing and neither of the 2 hosts or the other 4 panel members challenged him.

Junkyard Tom · 22-03-2019 05:02PM

One of the major mistakes was treating such a narrow win like a football match. 'We won, you lost, get over it'. That's majoritarian absolutism not democracy. Democracy would consider the views of those who 'lost' especially when it was so close.

Nobody in Ireland thinks that a majority vote for a United Ireland would mean that the views of Unionists could be disregarded - quite the opposite - they'd have to be incorporated into all future decisions.

Roanmore · 22-03-2019 05:02PM

Eod100 wrote: »

There's an irony in him being so anti-EU when it was the only place he could be elected to in his political career..

Would Farage get elected now though.

He wasn't directly elected technically as England use a list system for the Euro elections. UKIP got the biggest vote last time out but he is no longer a member and he's having trouble getting the Brexit Party off the ground.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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