Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

dresden8 · 22-03-2019 12:52AM

MikeSoys wrote: »

From a historical viewpoint it will imply EU done everything it could to avoid a no deal...

Chamberlain did everything he could to avoid no deal.

He is ridiculed in history. You can't appease the greedy, venal or just plain batsh1t crazy.

History doesn't always judge you fairly.

And yes I did just Godwin your ass. I don't feel guilty about it, Brexit is just a huge Godwin anyway.

road_high · 22-03-2019 12:54AM

dresden8 wrote: »

Sky news reporting EU has blinked because they just realised May was serious about crashing out. ERG are going to love this.

Turns out we do need them more than they need us.

Big mistake.

Am hello- she was the one begging for an extension! Really no skin off the EUs nose, they’re the ones staying here (and still paying in)

MikeSoys · 22-03-2019 12:57AM

Anyone want to buy my GBP? ;-D...its too stressful holding onto :-)

Shelga · 22-03-2019 01:03AM

I think tonight’s events make the overall chances of No Deal less likely. Parliament to take control of the process next week- somehow??

Then again, at around 5pm today I thought No Deal was the most likely outcome. God knows what’s going to happen. But my thinking at the moment is: MV3 fails next week. TM resigns- thank god. A long extension (12-18 months?) is granted by EU, either to have a referendum or a GE.

I have no clue though!

jasper100 · 22-03-2019 01:04AM

devnull wrote: »

From what we've seen tonight, it confirms what we already know, the ERG are in charge.

There was talk yesterday that she would go for a long extension if her deal fails until she had a meeting that included representatives of the ERG. She then came out with her statement pretty much saying that Brexit will not be delayed any further than the end of June no matter what and framed it as her deal vs no deal.

Tonight she is back to talking about if she doesn't get her vote through it means that she will come back to the EU before 12 April with a plan for the way forward, potentially delaying the deal for longer and looking at what other options may be on the table. This is at odds with her post ERG meeting response last night and is more in line with her pre ERG meeting plans.

It's there for all to see that May is now a puppet of the ERG, who are effectively in charge of Number 10 now. They know that whatever she says, if they kick up enough fuss she will fall in line to whatever they want. No doubt tomorrow the ERG will apply pressure and she'll be back to her deal or no deal once more.

What May has said tonight is worth absolutely nothing because we all know, what she says off her own back and what she says after the ERG have had their say, are often poles apart.

Corbyn is working on some "Norway 2" soft plan which keeps uk in the customs and movement of people agreement.

Effectively a "soft brexit" it sounds (from uk political analysts) that this might have enough cross party support to get it through.

So, no, the ERG are not in charge. Parliment might take over and control no.10 next week.

We still dont know what will happen, other than Mays deal looks like it might go in the bin, and her along with it.

prawnsambo · 22-03-2019 01:07AM

dresden8 wrote: »

It was going to be brought to a head this week.

EU have backed down.

You can't negotiate with perfidious Albion.

You win or you lose.

That's it.

I really don't see how this could be the case. A two week extension is nothing. But it's a huge looming deadline for the HoC. They thought they were off the hook when they voted for an extension, but when May went begging, she got pennies. Literally enough time to get her deal through or face a massive revolt if it doesn't. The can kicking has ended with a brick wall in three weeks time. They can get more, but only if something massive happens like a government collapse. The line has been drawn.

nc6000 · 22-03-2019 01:07AM

So where is the push for TM to resign going to come from? There hasn't exactly been a queue of people looking to replace her and have to either implement Brexit or revoke it.

Spanish Eyes · 22-03-2019 01:09AM

I wish I could say more without being banned.

But the arrogance and hubris of a post colonial country like UK is just mind boggling.

They seem to think IMV that UK is the leader of the Western World or something, well certainly the leaders of the EU. Yet they cannot wait to exit, and surprise, surprise, still haven't even though they could have gone the day A50 was invoked!

UK knows they need the EU Trade Agreement, and in fairness EU would like some amicable relationship with UK. But typically, the UK think they have all the aces.

It is a compromise. Geddit.

I sincerely hope it all works out. I have no skin in the game, just want what is best for everyone. And to be fair we all know what the worst case scenario is. Yep, a No Deal that was voted down in Parliament. I know it is not binding just like the referendum But look where a non binding ref has led them now.

dresden8 · 22-03-2019 01:10AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I really don't see how this could be the case. A two week extension is nothing. But it's a huge looming deadline for the HoC. They thought they were off the hook when they voted for an extension, but when May went begging, she got pennies. Literally enough time to get her deal through or face a massive revolt if it doesn't. The can kicking has ended with a brick wall in three weeks time. They can get more, but only if something massive happens like a government collapse. The line has been drawn.

It was first drawn last November.

This is all fuel to the "EU always blinks and makes a deal at the last minute" crowd.

prawnsambo · 22-03-2019 01:12AM

nc6000 wrote: »

So where is the push for TM to resign going to come from? There hasn't exactly been a queue of people looking to replace her and have to either implement Brexit or revoke it.

It has to come from the HoC itself. The Tories are locked out for another nine months or so, having failed to do it earlier. Pressure on her to resign might work, but I wouldn't hold my breath. So a motion of no confidence with a few dozen Tory rebels should do it.

prawnsambo · 22-03-2019 01:13AM

dresden8 wrote: »

It was first drawn last November.

This is all fuel to the "EU always blinks and makes a deal at the last minute" crowd.

What are you talking about? What line was drawn by the EU last November?

Capt'n Midnight · 22-03-2019 01:14AM

Water John wrote: »

There is a pic on twitter of almost 20 people around a laptop writing up the document for the leaders, incls Weyand and the Irish Ambassador, no UK rep in the room.

Here it is
https://twitter.com/DTzantchev/status/1108807850397261826/photo/1

1,000 days and May sends a letter asking for an extension date that was already rejected. More stalling for time. And was late sending the letter.

And gets a prompt reply so very clear that any delay was caused by the UK.

prawnsambo · 22-03-2019 01:16AM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Here it is
twitter.com/DTzantchev/status/1108807850397261826/photo/1

1,000 days and May sends a letter asking for an extension date that was already rejected. More stalling for time. And was late sending the letter.

And gets a prompt reply so very clear that any delay was caused by the UK.

That link isn't working for me.

nc6000 · 22-03-2019 01:18AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

That link isn't working for me.

https://twitter.com/DTzantchev/status/1108807850397261826

dresden8 · 22-03-2019 01:20AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

What are you talking about? What line was drawn by the EU last November?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/24/deadline-britain-eu-agree-brexit-deal-delayed-four-weeks-new/

Econ__ · 22-03-2019 01:21AM

A lot of bad takes on here. If you don't understand the complex dynamics of UK politics very well than you may as well not comment, because that is what was at the heart of tonight's extension formulation, expertly crafted by the EU.

May wanted the EU to agree to an extension until the 30th of June and slap on a condition that it's only granted if the deal passes next week. Her strategy was to blackmail Labour MPs with the threat of no deal to get it over the line - a very risky game.

The EU tonight have torn up that strategy. Through cleverly designed extension offer - they have given moderate MPs the time to vote down May's deal next week and have enough time to hold indicative votes to find a way forward (most likely through a softer form of Brexit). Remember that MPs were only two votes off forcing an indicative votes process on the government last week. Any trust or goodwill that moderate MPs had towards May will have evaporated after her behaviour in the last few days - it's now highly likely that the amendment will pass the next time it's put.

The EU tonight have effectively put the wheels in motion for a new cross party political process to which should help resolve the Brexit question in the HoC.

jasper100 · 22-03-2019 01:21AM

nc6000 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DTzantchev/status/1108807850397261826

After 2 world wars, divided germany, divided ireland, iron curtain, communism, holocost etc. Etc. that picture is a credit to all europeans. Except one bunch of outcasts.

Laois_Man · 22-03-2019 01:24AM

Tonight's Question Time for anyone who missed it...

Capt'n Midnight · 22-03-2019 01:33AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

That link isn't working for me.

http added

BTW From the good folk at https://twitter.com/bydonkeys?lang=en

Another link that isn't working is Nigel's March To Leave route .
They've taken down the advertised routes.

But they are on webcache -
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:vyhmuu0cgT0J:https://www.marchtoleave.com/route+&cd=5&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

and the way back machine
https://web.archive.org/web/20190228164812/https://www.marchtoleave.com/route

And Nigel's March To Leave only bought the .com website
https://marchtoleave.co.uk/ is of course now a parody site.

So the March is going about as well as the rest of Brexit

And Nigel taking the a poll on Wednesday
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1108511980908875778

ThePanjandrum · 22-03-2019 01:35AM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

That is incorrect and unfounded. 'No Deal' was not on the ballot paper, leaving the SM was not on the ballot paper - senior leave voices never talked about an economically catastrophic exit. Current opinion polling fails to show any dominant opinion in favour of No Deal. Moreover, the people of Northern Ireland decisively voted to remain, and they will be the most adversely affected by No Deal.

To be frank, your post is nonsense and lacks any worthwhile substance. But you are fully aware of that, aren't you.

I think that you'll find that they don't say that leaving the Single Market was on the ballot paper, however, if you read the leaflet distributed by the Government, which was meant to fulfil the EU's referendum guidance, you will see that voters were threatened several times with a more distant relationship with the Single Market. So the majority voted to leave knowing that this meant that we would no longer be members of the Single Market and that access to it might be restricted. So despite what is often claimed by Remainers, people voted for Brexit in the knowledge that this would take them out of the Customs Union and distance them from the Single Market, they did so knowing that it might make them poorer, they did so because they wanted to take back their country's sovereignty which had been given away.

Many people spoke of a WTO deal as a distinct possibility before the Referendum and there were many discussions about it. Not accepting that this happened is rewriting history.

briany · 22-03-2019 01:36AM

Econ__ wrote: »

A lot of bad takes on here. If you don't understand the complex dynamics of UK politics very well than you may as well not comment, because that is what was at the heart of tonight's extension formulation, expertly crafted by the EU.

May wanted the EU to agree to an extension until the 30th of June and slap on a condition that it's only granted if the deal passes next week. Her strategy was to blackmail Labour MPs with the threat of no deal to get it over the line - a very risky game.

The EU tonight have torn up that strategy. Through cleverly designed transition offer - they have given moderate MPs the time to vote down May's deal next week and have enough time to hold indicative votes to find a way forward (most likely through a softer form of Brexit). Remember that MPs were only two votes off forcing an indicative votes process on the government last week. Any trust or goodwill that moderate MPs had towards May will have evaporated after her behaviour in the last few days - it's now highly likely that the amendment will pass the next time it's put.

The EU tonight have effectively put the wheels in motion for a new cross party political process to which should help resolve the Brexit question in the HoC.

I thought the same proposal couldn't be put to the HoC twice in the same parliamentary session without significant alterations.

I realised May's deal maybe get voted on again next week, but that is a truly extraordinary circumstance. Not sure if the same courtesy will be afforded to previously failed amendments.

nc6000 · 22-03-2019 01:38AM

Econ__ wrote:

MPs were only two votes off forcing an indicative votes process on the government last week. Any trust or goodwill that moderate MPs had towards May will have evaporated after her behaviour in the last few days - it's now highly likely that the amendment will pass the next time it's put.

Will they be allowed to vote on this again?

jasper100 · 22-03-2019 01:45AM

nc6000 wrote: »

Will they be allowed to vote on this again?

Well she got 2 goes so maybe thats a new precident.

I find it extraordinary that she keeps banging on about no new referendum because thats the will of the people but she thinks she can have three goes at her plan, ignoring 2 large defeats first 2 times.

And there was even mention of mv4 tonight.

Anteayer · 22-03-2019 02:08AM

When you look back at what was said during the referendum campaign, the will of the people does not appear to have been for a hard Brexit.

You'd various suggestions that the UK would be able to maintain full market access and so on. It was very much the so called "cakeist" fantasy stuff of one foot in and one foot out.

On top of that you'd people voting to save the NHS and all sorts of issues that had nothing to do with it.

That somehow has morphed into the hardest of hard Brexits.

It's very hard to say that was ever the will of the people. At best it's very much stretching the truth and revising what was actually said during that campaign and also frankly doing that "looking into my heart as knowing what the people want" style or politics.

It feels like the whole country has been duped into signing up for something without knowing what it was and then had the goal posted moved several times after they'd signed on the dotted line.

Pocaide · 22-03-2019 02:13AM

It seems to me that the Uk has just checked into the Hotel California.

jm08 · 22-03-2019 02:18AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I think that you'll find that they don't say that leaving the Single Market was on the ballot paper, however, if you read the leaflet distributed by the Government, which was meant to fulfil the EU's referendum guidance, you will see that voters were threatened several times with a more distant relationship with the Single Market. So the majority voted to leave knowing that this meant that we would no longer be members of the Single Market and that access to it might be restricted. So despite what is often claimed by Remainers, people voted for Brexit in the knowledge that this would take them out of the Customs Union and distance them from the Single Market, they did so knowing that it might make them poorer, they did so because they wanted to take back their country's sovereignty which had been given away.

Many people spoke of a WTO deal as a distinct possibility before the Referendum and there were many discussions about it. Not accepting that this happened is rewriting history.

A few evenings before the referendum, RTE did some interviews around the Border area in which they asked them what way they were voting. One person interviewed (think he was the Mayor of Newry) who said he was voting Leave was asked 'what about the Border'? He replied that Boris J. and Theresa Villiers had been campaigning in Newry and they said that Brexit would make no difference to the Border. From what I recall, a lot of the Brexiteer campaigning revolved around ''Germany needs to sell us cars'', etc. etc. (the UK would have its cake and eat it too).

I feel sorry for that poor man in Newry now.

Peregrinus · 22-03-2019 02:20AM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I think that you'll find that they don't say that leaving the Single Market was on the ballot paper, however, if you read the leaflet distributed by the Government, which was meant to fulfil the EU's referendum guidance, you will see that voters were threatened several times with a more distant relationship with the Single Market. So the majority voted to leave knowing that this meant that we would no longer be members of the Single Market and that access to it might be restricted. So despite what is often claimed by Remainers, people voted for Brexit in the knowledge that this would take them out of the Customs Union and distance them from the Single Market, they did so knowing that it might make them poorer, they did so because they wanted to take back their country's sovereignty which had been given away.

The problem with this argument is that it assume that people who voted to Leave:

(a) knew the promises of the Remain campaign to be true, and relied on them in casting their vote, but

(b) knew the promises of the Leave campaign to be lies, but chose to vote anyway with the lying liars who lied.

Viewed dispassionately, this seems unlikely. Far more likely, surely, that those who voted with the Leave campaign did so because they were persuaded by the assertions of the Leave campaign?

That's certainly the conventional way of viewing matters. A political party which wins an election, for instance, is regarded as having a mandate requiring it to carry out what was set out in its manifesto, not a mandate requiring it to inflict the various national calamities that were predicted by the Cassandras of the opposition should it be elected.

ThePanjandrum · 22-03-2019 02:26AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

The problem with this argument is that it assume that people who voted to Leave:

(a) knew the promises of the Remain campaign to be true, and relied on them in casting their vote, but

(b) knew the promises of the Leave campaign to be lies, but chose to vote anyway with the lying liars who lied.

Viewed dispassionately, this seems unlikely. Far more likely, surely, that those who voted with the Leave campaign did so because they were persuaded by the assertions of the Leave campaign?

That's certainly the conventional way of viewing matters. A political party which wins an election, for instance, is regarded as having a mandate requiring it to carry out what was set out in its manifesto, not a mandate requiring it to inflict the various national calamities that were predicted by the Cassandras of the opposition should it be elected.

Sorry, I don't understand your argument at all. Where do you get a) and b) from? and what does your final paragraph relate to?

Strazdas · 22-03-2019 02:27AM

Econ__ wrote: »

A lot of bad takes on here. If you don't understand the complex dynamics of UK politics very well than you may as well not comment, because that is what was at the heart of tonight's extension formulation, expertly crafted by the EU.

May wanted the EU to agree to an extension until the 30th of June and slap on a condition that it's only granted if the deal passes next week. Her strategy was to blackmail Labour MPs with the threat of no deal to get it over the line - a very risky game.

The EU tonight have torn up that strategy. Through cleverly designed transition offer - they have given moderate MPs the time to vote down May's deal next week and have enough time to hold indicative votes to find a way forward (most likely through a softer form of Brexit). Remember that MPs were only two votes off forcing an indicative votes process on the government last week. Any trust or goodwill that moderate MPs had towards May will have evaporated after her behaviour in the last few days - it's now highly likely that the amendment will pass the next time it's put.

The EU tonight have effectively put the wheels in motion for a new cross party political process to which should help resolve the Brexit question in the HoC.

Apparently, the main reason for this is they knew May had zero chance of getting her deal through Parliament. They've effectively completely bypassed her and have done it a week in advance.

Peregrinus · 22-03-2019 02:34AM

dresden8 wrote: »

It was first drawn last November.

This is all fuel to the "EU always blinks and makes a deal at the last minute" crowd.

Yeah, but the EU is generally happy to toss them a bone.

This happens a lot with EU negotiations, since they are nearly always negotiating with a smaller, weaker party. So there's a dynamic which works like this:

1. Small weak party talks tough. Does this partly as a negotiating position, but mainly for domestic consumption.

2. By talking too tough, small weak party paints itself into a corner.

3. Small weak party badly wants a deal, but will have domestic problems if seen to climb down.

4. So EU tosses small weak party a bone, which small weak party identifies as the EU "blinking". Small weak party's virility have been demonstrated, small weak party can now climb down.

5. Deal is done on EU terms.

That is exactly what has happened here. The EU has compromised on the date of Brexit, which is a process matter, but not at all on the terms of Brexit, which are a substantial matter. Small weak party says that EU has blinked. EU is quite happy for them to say this; the whole point of the concession is so that they can say this, because they have to be able tos say this in order to shift their own position, which is what EU wants them to do.

The Brexity voices saying "EU has blinked!" are, you will find, the ones who will now abandon irredentist positions and move towards a deal with the EU.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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