Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Nody · 21-03-2019 07:00PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Maybe i'm feeling a little paranoid today but it's possible that the repercussions of No Deal for Britain may be a little exaggerated.
Consider this:

-Trump makes a free trade deal with Britain on March 30 to soften No Deal.

Trump and USA has already been very explicit in what they expect in the deal to be signed; lower food standards, GMO allowed, NHS contracts to be bid to private companies etc. Will it soften the blow? Sure; but it will not be a deal of equals and it will have very big consequences in the UK for decades which are not positive.

-He (or they - the US) use Britain's precarious position to further Trumps geo policital goal of undermining a major trade rival: the EU. Britain are American lackey's after all.

That's already happened once UK crashed out; no need to sweeten the deal esp. when UK is desperate.

-He or they also try and turn screws on the NHS for domestic political purposes of showing folks back home in USA the perils of "Socialized Medicine".

There is no try; it's already clearly stated that they expect for any FTA to be signed all NHS contracts should be up for tender with private corporations.

There are opportunities there.

Yes for disaster capital and people who want to buy farmland as farmers go bankrupt etc. The exact same people who're supporting the ERG group etc. because they will make a killing on it; for the great majority though things are going to get worse.

Quin_Dub · 21-03-2019 07:00PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Maybe i'm feeling a little paranoid today but it's possible that the repercussions of No Deal for Britain may be a little exaggerated.
Consider this:

-Trump makes a free trade deal with Britain on March 30 to soften No Deal.
-He (or they - the US) use Britain's precarious position to further Trumps geo policital goal of undermining a major trade rival: the EU. Britain are American lackey's after all.
-He or they also try and turn screws on the NHS for domestic political purposes of showing folks back home in USA the perils of "Socialized Medicine".

There are opportunities there.

The trouble is , any deal with the US under Trump likely torpedoes any chance of a deal with the rest of the EU.

Trump will demand that the UK lower their food standards to allow US Agri-Products in , thereby instantly trashing any deal with the EU as the EU will demand that they hold to the current EU standards.

At least with a deal in place for the EU under the WA etc. they could hold the line on food standards with the US and do a deal , but under No deal they basically have to choose one or the other..

Christy42 · 21-03-2019 07:04PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

BluePlanet wrote: »

Maybe i'm feeling a little paranoid today but it's possible that the repercussions of No Deal for Britain may be a little exaggerated.
Consider this:

-Trump makes a free trade deal with Britain on March 30 to soften No Deal.
-He (or they - the US) use Britain's precarious position to further Trumps geo policital goal of undermining a major trade rival: the EU. Britain are American lackey's after all.
-He or they also try and turn screws on the NHS for domestic political purposes of showing folks back home in USA the perils of "Socialized Medicine".

There are opportunities there.

The trouble is , any deal with the US under Trump likely torpedoes any chance of a deal with the rest of the EU.

Trump will demand that the UK lower their food standards to allow US Agri-Products in , thereby instantly trashing any deal with the EU as the EU will demand that they hold to the current EU standards.

At least with a deal in place for the EU under the WA etc. they could hold the line on food standards with the US and do a deal , but under No deal they basically have to choose one or the other..

The US has already published its requirements.

Main demands for an FTA is that the UK would be barred from making a similar deal with China and that the US essentially manages food standards in the UK (OK the UK would have their own bodies but they would be toothless).

Larbre34 · 21-03-2019 07:04PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Maybe i'm feeling a little paranoid today but it's possible that the repercussions of No Deal for Britain may be a little exaggerated.
Consider this:

-Trump makes a free trade deal with Britain on March 30 to soften No Deal.
-He (or they - the US) use Britain's precarious position to further Trumps geo policital goal of undermining a major trade rival: the EU. Britain are American lackey's after all.
-He or they also try and turn screws on the NHS for domestic political purposes of showing folks back home in USA the perils of "Socialized Medicine".

There are opportunities there.

I don't know why you'd feel paranoid, none of the interested parties are out to get you.

America alone cannot possibly compensate for the breadth and depth of UK trade with the EU, particularly in agri-food and services. And as mentioned above, the UK will be at a massive disadvantage in such an arrangement because they are under immense pressure. Special relationship or nay, the Trump administration is not known for giving a sucker an even break.

Itssoeasy · 21-03-2019 07:13PM

Andrea leadsom the leader of the house is just so bloody petty and she despises John Bercow. I've just seen seen a clip from I presume today where Bercow tells a Tory MP to grow up as they were heckling a labour MP. Instead of the leader of the house answering the labour MPs question she decided to take a shot at John Bercow to which he shot back at her.

joe40 · 21-03-2019 07:16PM

So as it stands does a rejection of mv3, mean no deal exit.
Can anything else happen. Is there any other ammunition left for remain or soft brexit supporters.
So why not approve the WA even if you disagree, as the lesser of 2 evils.
Maybe I'm missing something.

Itssoeasy · 21-03-2019 07:25PM

joe40 wrote: »

So as it stands does a rejection of mv3, mean no deal exit.
Can anything else happen. Is there any other ammunition left for remain or soft brexit supporters.
So why not approve the WA even if you disagree, as the lesser of 2 evils.
Maybe I'm missing something.

Going by the proposed statement from the EU, then Yes. The extension from the EU is conditional of the HoC passing the WA next week. The extension is to give Theresa May time to get the agreement through the commons and the Lords. So, if it's not passed there won't be an extension so at 11pm next Friday week baring something else happening, the UK will leave the EU without a deal and then it's anyone's guess what will happen.

I think it's 1,000 days since the Referendum was held and leave won and here the UK are just a few hours over 8 days away and they are potentially going to leave without a deal. And the UK can blame the EU, and Ireland and the man in the moon if they like, but the HoC sits in London, and nowhere else. They decided to leave, so it was up to them in the main to chart their way out of the EU in an orderly way. But, through arrogance and red lines and utter lies, the UK are in a mess.

Strazdas · 21-03-2019 07:26PM

joe40 wrote: »

So as it stands does a rejection of mv3, mean no deal exit.
Can anything else happen. Is there any other ammunition left for remain or soft brexit supporters.
So why not approve the WA even if you disagree, as the lesser of 2 evils.
Maybe I'm missing something.

It's possible that Parliament and Bercow might seize control of the situation before MV3 and force through legislation on Brexit in complete defiance of May.

RickBlaine · 21-03-2019 07:26PM

Is there a place online to legally watch the EU press conference?

Tell me how · 21-03-2019 07:28PM

Strazdas wrote: »

It's possible that Parliament and Bercow might seize control of the situation before MV3 and force through legislation on Brexit in complete defiance of May.

There is nothing that Parliament could put together itself which could be expected to be accepted by a majority.

To be fair to May, that was her point last night.

Itssoeasy · 21-03-2019 07:28PM

RickBlaine wrote: »

Is there a place online to legally watch the EU press conference?

sky news ? You'd think they'd be showing it given the seriousness of the matter at hand.

marno21 · 21-03-2019 07:28PM

Any UK-US "trade deal" post no deal is effectively the UK giving the US the right to pillage them. Charlatan of International Trade Liam Fox may use whatever language he wants to talk it up to the British people but there is absolutely no incentive for the US to give the UK any inch whatsoever in the event of a no deal

Such a deal would be catastrophic for the UK and also for Ireland, especially our agriculture sector

Such a deal flooding the UK with imported food like products would also require a fairly hard border to protect the EU single market and it's food standards

Tell me how · 21-03-2019 07:31PM

Petition to revoke is close to 1.25M votes in less than 24 hours.

Is there any chance that given May was speaking to the people last night saying "I am with you" that she could use this rapid signing rate (14 signatures/second) as evidence that the brakes need to be applied?

MrMusician18 · 21-03-2019 07:33PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

sky news ? You'd think they'd be showing it given the seriousness of the matter at hand.

https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/

It's not started yet.

ancapailldorcha · 21-03-2019 07:36PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Petition to revoke is close to 1.25M votes in less than 24 hours.

Is there any chance that given May was speaking to the people last night saying "I am with you" that she could use this rapid signing rate (14 signatures/second) as evidence that the brakes need to be applied?

I honestly can't imagine her ever doing that no matter how many signatures she gets.

Remember, she just had a go at Parliament in a live press conference. She is the head of the government acting on the pretense of fulfilling the will of the people. She then proceeds to run down our only nationally democratic institution for doing what we want it to do.

She's a right wing authoritarian who is more than happy to proceed with Brexit. She's trying to shove her dreadful deal on us no matter the cost.

jasper100 · 21-03-2019 07:38PM

joe40 wrote: »

So as it stands does a rejection of mv3, mean no deal exit.
Can anything else happen. Is there any other ammunition left for remain or soft brexit supporters.
So why not approve the WA even if you disagree, as the lesser of 2 evils.
Maybe I'm missing something.

This is what SKy corresondant Lewis Goodall thinks might happen

MV3 doesn’t pass (or is never even brought)
-PM takes us towards no deal.
-confidence vote, Tory remainers abstain or vote against
-govt falls, Queen calls for Corbyn
-Corbyn becomes PM. This all happens with so little time to spare he revokes A50.

Its quite a plausible outcome right now. Seems to be no deal crash out or this.

Doesn't seem likely her deal will pass given she has been told she can't bring it to another vote and its not even looking good for her to have the numbers to get the vote passed.

c.p.w.g.w · 21-03-2019 07:40PM

I think the only sensible thing to be done for the welfare of the UK is revoke A50. But it's sad that it won't be done

jasper100 · 21-03-2019 07:44PM

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

I think the only sensible thing to be done for the welfare of the UK is revoke A50. But it's sad that it won't be done

How so, seeing as parliament have voted against no deal?

The only options are either accept the deal or revoke?

Frank Bullitt · 21-03-2019 07:45PM

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1108800898027929602

Loafing Oaf · 21-03-2019 07:46PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Petition to revoke is close to 1.25M votes in less than 24 hours.

Is there any chance that given May was speaking to the people last night saying "I am with you" that she could use this rapid signing rate (14 signatures/second) as evidence that the brakes need to be applied?

How many people marched against the Iraq War and what difference did they make? No doubt the Tories would dismiss these signatories as lefties of various hues who would be very unlikely to vote for them under any circumstances. Plus TM may be in a 'screw you all' frame of mind, seeing as her time as PM is almost certainly almost up, and might be actively pushing for No Deal if her one is finally shot down.

Itssoeasy · 21-03-2019 07:47PM

jasper100 wrote: »

This is what SKy corresondant Lewis Goodall thinks might happen

MV3 doesn’t pass (or is never even brought)
-PM takes us towards no deal.
-confidence vote, Tory remainers abstain or vote against
-govt falls, Queen calls for Corbyn
-Corbyn becomes PM. This all happens with so little time to spare he revokes A50.

Its quite a plausible outcome right now. Seems to be no deal crash out or this.

Doesn't seem likely her deal will pass given she has been told she can't bring it to another vote and its not even looking good for her to have the numbers to get the vote passed.

So, a vote of confidence lose would mean a FF-labour scenario here in the mid nineties where labour left the government and FG took over without an Election ? Jesus that's an awful lot of things to happen in a short space of time. So, the numbers must add up to 318( I think that's a majority in the HoC) for Labour and a motley Crue of MPs then ?

Itssoeasy · 21-03-2019 07:50PM

jasper100 wrote: »

How so, seeing as parliament have voted against no deal?

The only options are either accept the deal or revoke?

No deal is the default position if there is no deal passed and A50 is not revoked.

Cosmo Kramer · 21-03-2019 07:51PM

Is Tony going to follow up his bombshell tweet or is he just leaving it hanging there for the craic?!

Blowfish · 21-03-2019 07:53PM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1108800898027929602

That wouldn't suprise me, May 22nd leaves the EU open to the issue of the extension happening, then the UK withdrawing A50 on May 21st which would cause huge issues as there wouldn't be enough time for the UK to elect MEP's.

I'd imagine there's a few on the council that would only agree to max April 18th.

UsedToWait · 21-03-2019 07:54PM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1108800898027929602

BBC reduced to reporting on Tony's reporting.
How sad to see the BBC reduced to the lightweight journalism of Adler and Keunsberg..

MrMusician18 · 21-03-2019 07:54PM

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Is Tony going to follow up his bombshell tweet or is he just leaving it hanging there for the craic?!

Tony really has the direct line, he may as well be in the room.

I hope he buys the Irish officials that are feeding him info a few pints. They've done wonders for his career!

Shelga · 21-03-2019 07:54PM

Still unclear what the process for revoking is- can May do it unilaterally?- or does she need the support of her government or parliament?

If she can do it on her own, she could decide to do what’s best for her country by announcing she is revoking article 50 and resigning as PM, as she has failed to achieve Brexit. Then she could just go retire somewhere and disappear from public life, with beefed up security! But she saves MPs from having to take most of the blame for revoking.

I know she won’t do this though, even if it were possible. She’d rather crash out than revoke.

jasper100 · 21-03-2019 07:55PM

Blowfish wrote: »

That wouldn't suprise me, May 22nd leaves the EU open to the issue of the extension happening, then the UK withdrawing A50 on May 21st which would cause huge issues as there wouldn't be enough time for the UK to elect MEP's.

I'd imagine there's a few that would only agree to April 18th.

The extension is only if a deal is passes parliament next week, so there would be no option to revoke A50 (I think)

Hurrache · 21-03-2019 07:55PM

UsedToWait wrote: »

BBC reduced to reporting on Tony's reporting.
How sad to see the BBC reduced to the lightweight journalism of Adler and Keunsberg..

They've been getting quite snarky about hearing UK related news via Irish officials and media outlets.

It's all go
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1108803953897148416?s=19

prunudo · 21-03-2019 07:57PM

Does the Queen have any sway or power to prevent a no deal crash out. Is it possible that she could pull the plug on parliament before her country implodes. I know this probably raises questions about interference in democracy but the houses of commons aren't exactly doing themselves any favours at present.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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