Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

briany · 21-03-2019 05:02PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

There's another option there. She goes back with her agreement and somebody amends it to include revocation of article 50 if it fails. That would get past Bercow.

But would it get past parliament? I mean I think there are more MPs who would like to revoke, but I don't know if there are enough with the guts to do it of their own accord. The only thing they fear more than a no deal is losing their seat.

Cryptopagan · 21-03-2019 05:03PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

There's another option there. She goes back with her agreement and somebody amends it to include revocation of article 50 if it fails. That would get past Bercow.

No it wouldn’t: that’s an either/or proposition.

Anteayer · 21-03-2019 05:06PM

It's basically a political system that's been hijacked. They gave permission (having been duped) for this to happen and now the parliamentary system seems to be incapable of stopping it.

As long as a hard Brexit is a possibility, there's a will in parliament to cause that to happen.

Eod100 · 21-03-2019 05:08PM

Think tweets 3 and 4 important here: https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1108737173531041793?s=19

robinph · 21-03-2019 05:09PM

trellheim wrote: »

Fully expect BoJo to pop up in a fortnight and claim the UK needs a fresh pair of hands .

They were making a point in the breakfast news today that he unusually hopped straight on his bike and sped away from reporters waiting for him to leave home this morning. Normally they would get some nugget of him waffling about something before he rode away.

Cryptopagan · 21-03-2019 05:11PM

briany wrote: »

But would it get past parliament? I mean I think there are more MPs who would like to revoke, but I don't know if there are enough with the guts to do it of their own accord. The only thing they fear more than a no deal is losing their seat.

It wouldn’t even get before parliament, because it’s an incoherent proposition. You’d be asking MPs to vote for or against May’s deal and for or against revoking Article 50 if May’s deal doesn’t pass.

Anteayer · 21-03-2019 05:14PM

I think while the statement from the CBI and TUC is helpful, it's far far far far too late. Why weren't they saying this 1 or 2 years ago?

9 days before the deadline and they're suddenly waking up - wow!

The business community and others have sat in silence, afraid of PR damage or something should they become involved. In the meantime their trading environment has been ripped asunder and pulled out from under them.

They seemed terrified to make any kind of statements contrary to dogma as the Leave side had practically made any contradictory statements against that referendum / plebiscite into heresy against Brexit and a thought crime against the people's will.

It's an utter indictment of the entire UK political system, including the non elected societal bits. The country has been dragged into a totally disasterous position because of pandering to tabloids and extremist views and seeing political argument as infotainment.

It also shows that the British business community and trade unions no longer have any political influence.

prawnsambo · 21-03-2019 05:18PM

Cryptopagan wrote: »

It wouldn’t even get before parliament, because it’s an incoherent proposition. You’d be asking MPs to vote for or against May’s deal and for or against revoking Article 50 if May’s deal doesn’t pass.

Isn't that exactly like the sequence of votes last week? Her deal, no 'no deal' and A50 extension.

Lemming · 21-03-2019 05:22PM

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

David Davis, Boris Johnson and Dominic Rabb seem to be gone AWOL due to the EU not flinching.

They're off trying to keep their heads below the parapet in the hopes that if (when) it all goes catastrophically wrong the memories of their appalling behaviour thus far is eclipsed by attention diverted onto others. Hence Bojo's ill-judged comments 'spaffed' up against the proverbial wall on something he believed to be an easy target for subject completely unrelated to Brexit.

In short, cowards.

upupup · 21-03-2019 05:24PM

Every one is afraid to say the word "revoke" as it may be political suicide so its understandable.A (very) long extension may be the way to disguise "revoke".
So I think it will go to the 11th hour and may writes a letter for a long extension or revoke and resigns.We then begin again with all lessons learnt on both sides and a greater understanding of the problems that need sorting.
Brexit 2021 is a success or a Large majority votes to remain

Cryptopagan · 21-03-2019 05:31PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Isn't that exactly like the sequence of votes last week? Her deal, no 'no deal' and A50 extension.

You could have separate votes on those things, but you couldn’t include one as an amendment to one of the others, because they are mutually exclusive. Say that you want parliament to pass A, but it already voted against the A Act last week. So you amend the A Act, and now it says that in the event A doesn’t pass, then B. Now the A Act has an amendment saying what happens if the A Act doesn’t pass parliament, which makes no sense, since the only way for the B amendment to pass is for A to pass, and all the B amendment does is outline what happens if A doesn’t pass.

Infini · 21-03-2019 05:33PM

Anteayer wrote: »

I think while the statement from the CBI and TUC is helpful, it's far far far far too late. Why weren't they saying this 1 or 2 years ago?

9 days before the deadline and they're suddenly waking up - wow!

The business community and others have sat in silence, afraid of PR damage or something should they become involved. In the meantime their trading environment has been ripped asunder and pulled out from under them.

They seemed terrified to make any kind of statements contrary to dogma as the Leave side had practically made any contradictory statements against that referendum / plebiscite into heresy against Brexit and a thought crime against the people's will.

It's an utter indictment of the entire UK political system, including the non elected societal bits. The country has been dragged into a totally disasterous position because of pandering to tabloids and extremist views and seeing political argument as infotainment.

It also shows that the British business community and trade unions no longer have any political influence.

I dont think they're too late there have been those voicing these concerns for some time but I dont think many truly believed the British Government were stupid enough to actually go through with no deal. Neither were they truly aware or were willing to consider the EU would truly allow them to crash out.

The simple truth is were entering the endgame of this farce there can be no continuing of MV3/4/5 etc (they arent even meaningful theyre do it or else votes). The simple truth is that if the British dont want to crash out someone there has to show leadership and be prepared to table an A50 withdrawal at some point. Wether they pass it or not I dont know but honestly it has a better chance of passing than the WA at this point and it doesnt have the same level of costs to them. I dont see Mays deal passing its got too much opposition and Mays little rant Im pretty sure has done plenty to sink it.

What will it take I wonder, will a run on the pound happen sometime next week? What will the EU ultimately say over this, they might give some extra time though not much, what happens if Parliment passes A50 and May refuses them, will the EU give the HoC time to remove her in those circumstances.

Professor Moriarty · 21-03-2019 05:36PM

Anteayer wrote: »

I think while the statement from the CBI and TUC is helpful, it's far far far far too late. Why weren't they saying this 1 or 2 years ago?

9 days before the deadline and they're suddenly waking up - wow!

The business community and others have sat in silence, afraid of PR damage or something should they become involved. In the meantime their trading environment has been ripped asunder and pulled out from under them.

They seemed terrified to make any kind of statements contrary to dogma as the Leave side had practically made any contradictory statements against that referendum / plebiscite into heresy against Brexit and a thought crime against the people's will.

It's an utter indictment of the entire UK political system, including the non elected societal bits. The country has been dragged into a totally disasterous position because of pandering to tabloids and extremist views and seeing political argument as infotainment.

It also shows that the British business community and trade unions no longer have any political influence.

Whatever about the TUC, the CBI have been warning about a hard Brexit since the referendum.

ancapailldorcha · 21-03-2019 05:39PM

I would hope that the TUC have been lobbying the Labour party hard since the referendum result.

Enzokk · 21-03-2019 05:40PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Think tweets 3 and 4 important here: https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1108737173531041793?s=19

"NB It's not just the PM who makes #Brexit statements to the cameras here with the audience back home in mind. EU leaders do that too. Worth bearing in mind when listening to their forthright #Brexit statements on their way in to the summit building today /4"

What I don't understand is if statements made beforehand is for local consumption, surely if you turn around and go against what you said 8 hours before it will be noticed by the local media?

I get what she is saying but it doesn't make sense unless you want to be known as a politician that doesn't keep to their word. I think the journalist is more likely trying to project a outcome on what they have been predicting all along. She has been big on the fact that the EU always compromises at the last moment and it sure looks like she doesn't know as much as she thinks she does as this hasn't happened.

Shelga · 21-03-2019 05:45PM

I hope MPs are painfully aware of the fact that in 8 days time, they lose control of their country completely. My understanding is that they cannot unilaterally revoke article 50 once they are into any extension period, can someone clarify? So their own national fate is completely out of their hands then. A dire position in which to find themselves.

If I was May, I would take accountability and revoke, come what May. (:D) This has been a complete and utter disaster, and she has shown comprehensively that the Tories cannot be trusted to lead the country now, never mind in the post-No Deal wilderness.

Sadly, I don’t think she would countenance doing that in a million years, and the UK will be crashing out next week. Shameful.

trellheim · 21-03-2019 05:49PM

Q: Assume I am Teresa May and I march into the HoC

"Mr Speaker ! I move that this House votes to Revoke Article 50".

Do I get a majority ?

I do not think so.

Anteayer · 21-03-2019 05:49PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Whatever about the TUC, the CBI have been warning about a hard Brexit since the referendum.

Not nearly hard enough though.
Most businesses have avoided taking sides in this and have kept out of political debate when they should have been shouting from the rooftops.

Where were all the CBI and industry representatives on TV debates? Why aren't they on the news channels every night?

We should be sick of hearing from them at this stage.

Can you imagine if the Irish government pulled a stunt like this?!

trellheim · 21-03-2019 05:51PM

Most businesses have avoided taking sides in this and have kept out of political debate when they should have been shouting from the rooftops.

Where were all the CBI and industry representatives on TV debates? Why aren't they on the news channels every night?

Because a near-universal doom and gloom doesnt play well they get enough from the remainer pols, instead they get idiots like Dyson on and claim "balance" is needed.

Joe_ Public · 21-03-2019 05:57PM

Anteayer wrote: »

Not nearly hard enough though.
Most businesses have avoided taking sides in this and have kept out of political debate when they should have been shouting from the rooftops.

Where were all the CBI and industry representatives on TV debates? Why aren't they on the news channels every night?

We should be sick of hearing from them at this stage.

Can you imagine if the Irish government pulled a stunt like this?!

I’ve certainly seen a lot of Carolyn Fairnbairn on tv over the last few months, usually getting drowned out by leavers droning on about democracy and the will of the people. I take your point but don’t think they are the right targets for blame here, there were plenty of enough warnings but people in many cases gonna hear what they want to hear.

An Ciarraioch · 21-03-2019 06:04PM

http://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108769593735168002

PokeHerKing · 21-03-2019 06:17PM

Fair play to the EU. Only thing that made political sense to them. Over to HoC. The deal, crash out or revoke.

Time to $hit or get off the pot lads.

MadYaker · 21-03-2019 06:27PM

Yeah I wasn’t thinking they’d get an extension until June and they have no hope of a long extension no matter what happens. The EU are fed up they’ve had enough.

Akrasia · 21-03-2019 06:36PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1108769593735168002

They're basically saying to Bercow that there will be no more substantial change to the motion that May is to bring for MV3 from the EU side.

If there is to be any change to allow May to hold the vote, it must either come from May herself, or via a change in circumstances that make this vote different to the last 2.

I think Bercow would probably consider the fact that the UK are about a week away from crashing out with no hope of an extension to be a material change in circumstances, but it's down to his discretion unless May appends something to MV2 that makes it substantially different (not likely given her refusal to compromise up now)

Mr.Nice Guy · 21-03-2019 06:43PM

I'm still inclined to believe a long extension is the most likely outcome.

EU have stated today a longer extension is not possible given the UK does not intend to hold elections. That suggests to me if MV3 fails - which most expect - then providing May flip-flops once more and signals that she is willing to hold elections, I believe at an emergency summit they will give her probably to the end of the year, if not beyond that.

May probably won't survive that but the jig is up for her if/when MV3 loses.

Shelga · 21-03-2019 06:47PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

May probably won't survive that but the jig is up for her if/when MV3 loses.

Can’t she refuse to go, given that she survived a vote of no confidence recently? She is just that obstinate.

BluePlanet · 21-03-2019 06:48PM

Maybe i'm feeling a little paranoid today but it's possible that the repercussions of No Deal for Britain may be a little exaggerated.
Consider this:

-Trump makes a free trade deal with Britain on March 30 to soften No Deal.
-He (or they - the US) use Britain's precarious position to further Trumps geo policital goal of undermining a major trade rival: the EU. Britain are American lackey's after all.
-He or they also try and turn screws on the NHS for domestic political purposes of showing folks back home in USA the perils of "Socialized Medicine".

There are opportunities there.

Infini · 21-03-2019 06:51PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Maybe i'm feeling a little paranoid today but it's possible that the repercussions of No Deal for Britain may be a little exaggerated.
Consider this:

-Trump makes a free trade deal with Britain on March 30 to soften No Deal.
-He (or they - the US) use Britain's precarious position to further Trumps geo policital goal of undermining a major trade rival: the EU. Britain are American lackey's after all.
-He or they also try and turn screws on the NHS for domestic political purposes of showing folks back home in USA the perils of "Socialized Medicine".

There are opportunities there.

Thats not oppertunities thats the vulture moving in to pick the carcass clean. Anything offered to Britain will be to the detriment of Britain.

Akrasia · 21-03-2019 06:54PM

trellheim wrote: »

Q: Assume I am Teresa May and I march into the HoC

"Mr Speaker ! I move that this House votes to Revoke Article 50".

Do I get a majority ?

I do not think so.

Does TM need to get HOC approval to revoke A50 though?

According to The Wightman case, Article 50 could be revoked by a sitting government without requiring a vote by the house of commons.

It would probably involve May resigning, but this could be her last act as PM. She has been using the threat of a No deal as blackmail to get her own deal through, but does even Theresa May really want to actually pull that trigger?

She would never admit it while there is even a glimmer of a chance that her threats might work, that would totally defeat the point of the blackmail in the first place, but when it's clear that her gambit has failed, she might fall on her sword, admit defeat and agree to revoke A50

Place your bets folks!!

Tell me how · 21-03-2019 06:55PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Maybe i'm feeling a little paranoid today but it's possible that the repercussions of No Deal for Britain may be a little exaggerated.
Consider this:

-Trump makes a free trade deal with Britain on March 30 to soften No Deal.
-He (or they - the US) use Britain's precarious position to further Trumps geo policital goal of undermining a major trade rival: the EU. Britain are American lackey's after all.
-He or they also try and turn screws on the NHS for domestic political purposes of showing folks back home in USA the perils of "Socialized Medicine".

There are opportunities there.

Don't think there is enough time for these scenarios to play out. Even if he is re-elected, he has max 5 years.

I expect the UK to go in to some form of recovery position for a couple of years after this. That is assuming of course that they have some position to hold. The last 3 years have been catastrophic for their political standing and ego.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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