Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Achernar · 21-03-2019 03:22PM

demfad wrote: »

Theresa May has whipped against ALL these other motions.
She is acting as if it's being a free vote of the HOC it's not.

Her vote has hammerred twice now. It is on her as PM to solve this. There are potential majorities to get a Bexit through but she is whipping against the alternatives.

Therefore the only possibility of an alternative getting through was a massive revolt of the conservative party.

They did it for the WA and it is up to her to adapt.

What she said yesterday about the Parliament was basically: Even though the Commons has dealt two historic Gov defeats on the biggest issue in a half decade they have not gone further an added more historic anti-Government defeats. Therefore it's all their fault. They should have done this.

People should also start to see the post-truth element of these 'Statements'.

When she is under pressure she goes through all the theatre of a dramatic announcement, gathers the UK or world media, projects the whole show of importance/decision but syas nothing or diverts with a new talking point (blames parliament).

All her Statements have been like this. All theatre, no substance.

US and UK are starting to resemble more and more the 'Surkovian' Russian model of the early 2000's.

You project democracy and democratic processes which become increasingly weak and fake as time goes on.
Like a movie set.

THe model is called 'sovereign democracy'.

It is perfect for disguising a drift to right wing authoritarianism.

Right wing authoritanarianism seems to be the model to resist a democratic response to oncoming global issues like inequality and climate change.

Absolutely.

The solutions to our planetary predicament (an existential, ecological catastrophe) must involve an acceptance of truly democratic, multilateral, rational, evidence-based and above all reality-based decision-making. What we are seeing now is a peculiar combination of mass propaganda facilitated by unregulated, corporatised social media forces - weaponised by dark actors - and the total collapse of conventional political power structures, most obvious in the those that are the most anachronistic and least resistant to corruption (the US and UK for example). I think the only way out is a complete renewal of our concept of democratic franchise, one that is more focussed on the needs of the future, including lowering the age of voting substantially, radical reform of political representation (e.g. abandoning FPTP, monarchy, unelected upper house, etc.), and legal recognition of common ownership and stewardship of the ecosphere. This cannot happen unless the forces of fascist fear and fence-building isolationism are confronted and demonstrated to be self-defeating and suicidal.

Trump / Brexit / Christchurch massacre... there’s a common thread of toxic aggression from a dying worldview of privileged exceptionalism. These high-pressure days of brinkmanship reveal the true leaders of the future, and my bet is on the likes of Jacinda Ardern, not Theresa May.

briany · 21-03-2019 03:30PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Macron has said today that if they deal next week is not voted for they won't be agreeing to a longer extension. I only caught the end of his interview so didn't get the question, so he's probably talking from the perspective of France, and possible others, but it looks like they're more than willing to veto any extension without the WA.

That means, then, that Farage is going to be on Sky News on no-deal Brexit day, shouting 'viva la France' just to add another surreal twist to this pantomime.

Eod100 · 21-03-2019 03:47PM

Think Macron is just playing hardball.

Besides UK, no deal Brexit will be very serious for us. MPs are treating it as a bloody game, it's infuriating

prawnsambo · 21-03-2019 03:54PM

Petition to revoke article 50 has just crossed the million mark.

This is a handy site to look at the result without hammering the server: https://brexit-petitions-count.now.sh/

Laois_Man · 21-03-2019 03:58PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Think Macron is just playing hardball.

He really isn't you know!
He's worried about the possibility of the 'Frexit' movement growing in France and what the National Rally Party could do in the next elections. Brexit is stoking it up. He is genuinely anxious that it be ended!

ancapailldorcha · 21-03-2019 04:06PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

He really isn't you know!
He's worried about the possibility of the 'Frexit' movement growing in France and what the National Rally Party could do in the next elections. Brexit is stoking it up. He is genuinely anxious that it be ended!

I don't know. Brexit is shaping up to be the single best piece of pro-EU propaganda the most rabid Europhile could never have dreamed of.

I'd say he's just looking for a resolution to Brexit to end the uncertainty.

Eod100 · 21-03-2019 04:07PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Petition to revoke article 50 has just crossed the million mark.

This is a handy site to look at the result without hammering the server: https://brexit-petitions-count.now.sh/

I think anyone can sign it once they tick a box saying they're a British citizen and provide a UK postcode. Think it only needs to be considered for debate so likely to be rejected but interesting to see all the same!

21-03-2019 04:13PM

For the future the EU will surely be looking to close off the loophole of unilateral withdrawal of Article 50. Would it take much to do it? Would anywhere besides Ireland have to have a referendum on change?

Enzokk · 21-03-2019 04:14PM

Eod100 wrote: »

I think anyone can sign it once they tick a box saying they're a British citizen and provide a UK postcode. Think it only needs to be considered for debate so likely to be rejected but interesting to see all the same!

That is true, the same for the petition about leaving without a deal. So you could be cynical and think there is a sustained effort to inflate the numbers for revoking article 50 but the same is not true for leaving without a deal.

I think it is more likely that remain would have a lead right now and people are upset and scared at leaving the EU and thus more vocal. I suspect the march for a people's vote will be quite big this weekend as well as a way for people to show their displeasure at parliament and the PM right now.

Purgative · 21-03-2019 04:15PM

Eod100 wrote: »

I think anyone can sign it once they tick a box saying they're a British citizen and provide a UK postcode. Think it only needs to be considered for debate so likely to be rejected but interesting to see all the same!

Irish postcode worked fine;)

First Up · 21-03-2019 04:18PM

The other 26 EU member states are not nearly as pre-occupied with Brexit as some here (and in Westminster) seem to think.

There may be some who hope it will all go away but most just want the UK to go away and let us get on with life without them.

robinph · 21-03-2019 04:18PM

Eod100 wrote: »

I think anyone can sign it once they tick a box saying they're a British citizen and provide a UK postcode. Think it only needs to be considered for debate so likely to be rejected but interesting to see all the same!

But the map showing where the various signatures have come from matches pretty close to major population centres and mirrors the remain/ leave maps. If there were major fiddling of the system going on then they would need to have a matching set of valid post codes for the whole country and be using them in a very sophisticated way to ensure they don't generate 10,000 signatures for W1A 1AA which would show up as the system being gamed quite easily.

Not that it is beyond the wit of a few dedicated nerds to do that, but they would need to have known how disastrous a speech May was about to give last night, and when, and had their data already mapped out against the previous polling data against post code data and ensuring that no code was used more than a couple of times and been ready to kick it off at the right moment last night.

I'm sure there will be a few people signing from overseas who don't have a vote using their friends postcodes or one for where they used to live, but the numbers will be insignificant or it would easily be spotted on the submissions.

Igotadose · 21-03-2019 04:28PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Petition to revoke article 50 has just crossed the million mark.

This is a handy site to look at the result without hammering the server: https://brexit-petitions-count.now.sh/

Over a million, but the site's been crashing. And, various nobs in HMG are saying they're going to ignore it anyway (Leadsom, Hunt) though they're required to take it up in Parliament if it passes 100k votes (which it did).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/article-50-petition-revoke-brexit-delay-theresa-may-deal-a8833681.html

prawnsambo · 21-03-2019 04:31PM

Eod100 wrote: »

I think anyone can sign it once they tick a box saying they're a British citizen and provide a UK postcode. Think it only needs to be considered for debate so likely to be rejected but interesting to see all the same!

At least one MP has tweeted that he'd bring it forward. Can't find the tweet now, but it was retweeted a lot about mid-day today.

Eod100 · 21-03-2019 04:32PM

Would be a very short extension if it was this.. Maybe they just want it over once and for all by Easter.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1108751876009406464

robinph · 21-03-2019 04:34PM

Seen a few people post on twitter that the petition is being hammered by foreign bots after they took a glance at the country location data. Really it isn't. If there are 1000 signatures from people in France then that probably matches quite well with the ratio of people currently on holiday over there and just hoping that they have a country to come back to.

prawnsambo · 21-03-2019 04:38PM

robinph wrote: »

Seen a few people post on twitter that the petition is being hammered by foreign bots after they took a glance at the country location data. Really it isn't. If there are 1000 signatures from people in France then that probably matches quite well with the ratio of people currently on holiday over there and just hoping that they have a country to come back to.

Yeah. I had a look at the JSON data when it was around 540k and at most there were 20k non-UK votes. And this is only based on IPs. Lots of people use VPNs as well as UK citizens living, working and holidaying abroad.

Edit: And another look tells me that France and Spain are the highest at approx 8k and 4k respectively. Ireland at around 1.5k. Which is pretty reasonable imo. NI very slow on the uptake, no constituency much above 1% atm.

trellheim · 21-03-2019 04:40PM

OK

Gates as I see it that all have to pass through to get a deal

1. Bercow persuaded or overridden to force MV3 back on to next weeks business

2. HoC vote for the deal.

Sorry lads I just dont see it. I can see (1) but not (2) . Its no deal on the 29th I cant see anything else

BluePlanet · 21-03-2019 04:40PM

Personally i think it's No Deal.
For the reason that anything else requires back flipping and extraordinary movement.
While No Deal requires only the existing paralysis.

eire4 · 21-03-2019 04:43PM

trellheim wrote: »

OK

Gates as I see it that all have to pass through to get a deal

1. Bercow persuaded or overridden to force MV3 back on to next weeks business

2. HoC vote for the deal.

Sorry lads I just dont see it. I can see (1) but not (2) . Its no deal on the 29th I cant see anything else

It really is looking like a no deal at this point. I mean they lost the last vote by 149 that is a heck of a lot of votes to flip by next week to pass the bill. I just do not see that happening. So it really looks like no deal to me.

branie2 · 21-03-2019 04:44PM

A no deal would be a disaster

trellheim · 21-03-2019 04:46PM

A no deal would be a disaster

Not in the brains of the headbangers who nearly have what they want. they can taste it at this stage. And they really exist and they really REALLY do think like that. After 1000 days of Brexit only 10 to go and they are out clean.

Duane Dibbley · 21-03-2019 04:47PM

David Davis, Boris Johnson and Dominic Rabb seem to be gone AWOL due to the EU not flinching.

josip · 21-03-2019 04:47PM

branie2 wrote: »

A no deal would be a disaster

Agreed, In the short term not pleasant.
But in the medium to long term, a no deal exit will be better than the UK remaining.

LeinsterDub · 21-03-2019 04:47PM

robinph wrote: »

Seen a few people post on twitter that the petition is being hammered by foreign bots after they took a glance at the country location data. Really it isn't. If there are 1000 signatures from people in France then that probably matches quite well with the ratio of people currently on holiday over there and just hoping that they have a country to come back to.

The irony i assume is completely lost on them that the Leave side cheated , lied and broke the law?

trellheim · 21-03-2019 04:49PM

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

David Davis, Boris Johnson and Dominic Rabb seem to be gone AWOL due to the EU not flinching.

Fully expect BoJo to pop up in a fortnight and claim the UK needs a fresh pair of hands .

Duane Dibbley · 21-03-2019 04:50PM

branie2 wrote: »

A no deal would be a disaster

True. But the sooner it happens, The sooner we can all implement the solutions.

Professor Moriarty · 21-03-2019 04:50PM

branie2 wrote: »

A no deal would be a disaster

Absolutely. The TUC and the CBI issued an unprecedented joint statement today:

We represent millions of workers and tens of thousands of businesses. It is on their behalf that we are writing to you to ask you to change your Brexit approach.

Our country is facing a national emergency. Decisions of recent days have caused the risk of no deal to soar. Firms and communities across the UK are not ready for this outcome. The shock to our economy would be felt by generations to come.

We ask you to take three steps to protect the jobs, rights and livelihoods of ordinary working people.

First, avoiding no deal is paramount. Businesses and employees alike need to see their government clearly acknowledge the reckless damage no deal would cause and recommit itself to avoiding this outcome.

Second, securing an extension has become essential. 88% of CBI members and a majority in parliament agree this is better than no deal. But at the same time an extension must genuinely allow a way forwards, and be long enough for a deal to be agreed.

Third, ‘the current deal or no deal’ must not be the only choice. A Plan B must be found - one that protects workers, the economy and an open Irish border, commands a parliamentary majority, and is negotiable with the EU. A new approach is needed to secure this – whether through indicative votes or another mechanism for compromise.

We cannot overstate the gravity of this crisis for firms and working people. We request an urgent meeting with you to discuss our concerns and hear your response.

No Brexiteer will heed this advice in any shape or form. Including May. They're whistling in the wind.

prawnsambo · 21-03-2019 04:52PM

trellheim wrote: »

OK

Gates as I see it that all have to pass through to get a deal

1. Bercow persuaded or overridden to force MV3 back on to next weeks business

2. HoC vote for the deal.

Sorry lads I just dont see it. I can see (1) but not (2) . Its no deal on the 29th I cant see anything else

There's another option there. She goes back with her agreement and somebody amends it to include revocation of article 50 if it fails. That would get past Bercow.

Cryptopagan · 21-03-2019 05:00PM

Igotadose wrote: »

Over a million, but the site's been crashing. And, various nobs in HMG are saying they're going to ignore it anyway (Leadsom, Hunt) though they're required to take it up in Parliament if it passes 100k votes (which it did).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/article-50-petition-revoke-brexit-delay-theresa-may-deal-a8833681.html

The requirement is that the Petitions Committee consider forwarding a petition for debate in Parliament if it reaches the 100k threshold.

Petitions very rarely act as a catalyst for change (the most successful e-petition thus far attracted 4m signatories and called for a second referendum if the first Brexit vote didn’t meet certain conditions for turnout and scale if victory....I’m sure this one will be equally successful).

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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