Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Eod100 · 21-03-2019 01:29PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Probably because she was thinking of EuroParl resumption to pass the WA. But it's the same arrogance that she's displayed to date (and of course the rest of her government) where her only concern is her own and EU desire to keep it out of the elections is irrelevant.

Think it would be a disaster for her if UK had to contest European elections too though!

21-03-2019 01:29PM

It's being reported on twitter that regardless of what the petition says, it won't be revoked....

Jack Maidment (@jrmaidment) Tweeted:
Downing Street responds to the revoke article 50 petition by saying Number 10 and the PM have said “12,000 times” that it is “not something that she is prepared to do”. https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108691097696587777?s=17

robinph · 21-03-2019 01:35PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It's being reported on twitter that regardless of what the petition says, it won't be revoked....

Jack Maidment (@jrmaidment) Tweeted:
Downing Street responds to the revoke article 50 petition by saying Number 10 and the PM have said “12,000 times” that it is “not something that she is prepared to do”. https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108691097696587777?s=17

It's not her mind that needs changing though, I don't think anyone signing the petition seriously expects it to change either. But if the petition can have the effect of showing the rest of the MP's that there is significant support for them NOT to support a crash out or to be bullied by May then it is doing it's job.

MrMusician18 · 21-03-2019 02:00PM

Given all the drama of the past week, it's a relatively slow day so far today.

I guess it won't all kick off until the council concludes this evening, although it's unlikely be anything new to discuss - unless the extension is vetoed or further conditions attached.

Joe_ Public · 21-03-2019 02:04PM

Today’s the day I’m beginning to come around to the stark possibility of no deal exit coming to pass. Dup seem to be heading full throttle for it, lot - maybe not all - erg will go same way I’m sure. Pretty sure her deal is goosed.

Laois_Man · 21-03-2019 02:16PM

HoC not sitting on March 29th

That's OK....what work could there possibly be to do that day!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1108690615506735104

ancapailldorcha · 21-03-2019 02:19PM

Penn wrote: »

She is, but she's asking for three months which she knows she won't get. When the EU return with the 22nd of May, she can complain that they didn't give her the time she wanted.

That's what Brexit is now; a blame game. That much was clear from her speech last night.

She can but trust me, when people start seeing this affect their lives there'll be demands for the government to act. Problem is, when this point arrives it'll have been too late as too much soft power, influence and sovereignty will have been ceded to Trump and the disaster capitalists.

What May said last night was terrifying. She joined in the denigration of a wholly democratic institution simply because it interfered with her authoritarian agenda of implementing a terrible deal that neither side who voted in the 2016 referendum wanted.

Sam Russell · 21-03-2019 02:21PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Today’s the day I’m beginning to come around to the stark possibility of no deal exit coming to pass. Dup seem to be heading full throttle for it, lot - maybe not all - erg will go same way I’m sure. Pretty sure her deal is goosed.

The situation has remained the same for the last three months.

1. WA passes and UK goes into the transition phase.

2. The UK fails to avoid the crash out for whatever reason.

3. The UK decides to revoke Art 50.

At this stage all are likely, and the opinion that one will succeed depends on who is talking to whom.

Crash out is a disaster all round - biggest losers are the UK. Ireland also loses, but the EU can bail us out, but no-one will bail out the UK without a vey high price.

WA appears to be dead in the water, but there are many who change their minds when faced by the hangman's noose.

Equally the Revoke option will be there and could be seen as a least worse option to the WA. The Revoke is at least under the control of the UK and requires no permission or agreement from outside the UK, and will not cause additional problems to the UK, except a few death threats from nutters, and a few tens of marchers making their way from Sunderland. Riots there will not be.

In the UK, the 'will of the people' is upholding a single advisory referendum riddled with lies and illegal funding, etc. The vote was non-specific on what would happen if the result was 'Leave'.

However, 'Democracy' also allows multiple votes on the same question in the HoC, but does not allow a second vote to approve the deal agreed between HMG and the EU.

We wait to see.

Enzokk · 21-03-2019 02:25PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

HoC not sitting on March 29th

That's OK....what work could there possibly be to do that day!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1108690615506735104

Why would they not be sitting that day? Seems to me if May has a total breakdown and doubles down on no-deal she doesn't want parliament to vote to revoke article 50. And people still think she is a remainer because she hedged her bets during the referendum?

Anteayer · 21-03-2019 02:27PM

Could she possibly be deliberately setting this up to fail?
I mean she must know that what she's asking for is illogical, impractical and unlikely to fly.

Perhaps her strategy will be to blame the EU and try to paint herself as a strong leader who is the victim of Brussels? I don't think it will work but I wonder if that's the thought process in the PM's "kitchen cabinet". I mean this will probably deliver a hard brexit and a lot of arbitrary power to deregulate or impose Draconian legislation without much oversight from legislators as it'll all be a panic and a rush.

It's just hard to believe that she could be simply stumbling into a mess thinking that this is a good plan.

blanch152 · 21-03-2019 02:28PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Today’s the day I’m beginning to come around to the stark possibility of no deal exit coming to pass. Dup seem to be heading full throttle for it, lot - maybe not all - erg will go same way I’m sure. Pretty sure her deal is goosed.

A smart Labour amendment is to support her deal conditional on a referendum. Don't think Corbyn has it in him to propose it and don't think that May has it in her not to whip against it.

Joe_ Public · 21-03-2019 02:32PM

blanch152 wrote: »

A smart Labour amendment is to support her deal conditional on a referendum. Don't think Corbyn has it in him to propose it and don't think that May has it in her not to whip against it.

Yeah, that’s the Kyle Wilson document isn’t it? I had been very hopeful that we’d get a May deal passing with second referendum attachment scenario but vibes seem much less hopeful to me this morning. Lot can change as someone said above, of course. SNP are talking about a legal means of revoking, i believe, so could be something promising in that.

Eod100 · 21-03-2019 02:35PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Today’s the day I’m beginning to come around to the stark possibility of no deal exit coming to pass. Dup seem to be heading full throttle for it, lot - maybe not all - erg will go same way I’m sure. Pretty sure her deal is goosed.

I think the extension to A50 is a safety net for this but if a MV3 fails, I don't see how there could be a MV4. She seems to have annoyed a lot of people with her statement when she was trying to get MPS to change side.

I guess No Deal is default until otherwise decided so it's a it dicey alright.

Sam Russell · 21-03-2019 02:37PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Why would they not be sitting that day? Seems to me if May has a total breakdown and doubles down on no-deal she doesn't want parliament to vote to revoke article 50. And people still think she is a remainer because she hedged her bets during the referendum?

The only way TM is a remainer is that she has always wanted to remain.

1. She wanted to remain Home Secretary, so she backed Cameron's side.

2. She wants to remain PM, so she has lied and done everything she could to remain PM for another month, another day, even another hour.

She pandered to the ERG, setting red lines that should never have been set.
She gave speeches from geographical places that were full of nonsense and waffle but no real substance. She appointed unsuitable people to high office - David Davis, Raab, BoJo, Gove, etc. She even called an election that backfired. She did a 'deal' with the DUP that she embarrassed the Queen because the opening of Parliament was delayed while it was renegotiated. She agreed the deal with Barnier and had to renege when she got a call from Arlene.

She has been open to humiliation time and time again, just so she can remain. She is totally unprincipled.

Joe_ Public · 21-03-2019 02:38PM

Eod100 wrote: »

I think the extension to A50 is a safety net for this but if a MV3 fails, I don't see how there could be a MV4. She seems to have annoyed a lot of people with her statement when she was trying to get MPS to change side.

I guess No Deal is default until otherwise decided so it's a it dicey alright.

But will there be extension if mv3 fails? Thought that was going to be the condition.

BobbyBobberson · 21-03-2019 02:38PM

I was watching Daily Politics earlier and when someone suggested that revoking Article 50 to which Andrew Neil replied, without any hint of irony, "that would make us look silly internationally".

He rightly got hammered for it with someone commenting "that ship sailed long ago".

Leroy42 · 21-03-2019 02:44PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yeah, that’s the Kyle Wilson document isn’t it? I had been very hopeful that we’d get a May deal passing with second referendum attachment scenario but vibes seem much less hopeful to me this morning. Lot can change as someone said above, of course. SNP are talking about a legal means of revoking, i believe, so could be something promising in that.

How would that work since TM has stated, and only requested, an extension to 30th June. Therefore no time for a ref on any deal.

The EU would then be in the position of having the UK as a member after the elections and then the deal is possibly defeated in a ref.

I still think too many people are trying to find too many ways out of the mess, but making up even messier ways.

It should be pretty simply. Crash out, TM Deal, or revoke. The EU, IMO, should not be giving any extensions except on a guaranteed promise of a certain outcome. The HoC saying they will hold a 2nd Ref, when neither of the two main parties stand for remain is a con job.

As well as the HoC and the UK having to face reality, I think the EU need to face up to it as well.

Eod100 · 21-03-2019 02:47PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

But will there be extension if mv3 fails? Thought that was going to be the condition.

Yeah think you're right actually.

Think even it it does fail there would have to be an extension to avoid no deal brexit but nothing official until after I guess

Joe_ Public · 21-03-2019 02:50PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

How would that work since TM has stated, and only requested, an extension to 30th June. Therefore no time for a ref on any deal.

The EU would then be in the position of having the UK as a member after the elections and then the deal is possibly defeated in a ref.

I still think too many people are trying to find too many ways out of the mess, but making up even messier ways.

It should be pretty simply. Crash out, TM Deal, or revoke. The EU, IMO, should not be giving any extensions except on a guaranteed promise of a certain outcome. The HoC saying they will hold a 2nd Ref, when neither of the two main parties stand for remain is a con job.

As well as the HoC and the UK having to face reality, I think the EU need to face up to it as well.

Well, I thought the clearest way for her to get her vote back on the table was by having the amendment with it, but obviously that was bit naive on my part, wishful thinking. It would need longer extension and her willful stubbornness seems dead set against that now. I guess we’d all like it to be simple, but it’s really anything but.

Shelga · 21-03-2019 02:50PM

8 days to go, and there still isn’t even the vaguest idea of something that can garner a parliamentary majority. I really think it’s going to be no deal, by default, with a tiny chance article 50 is revoked at the last minute.

I couldn’t bring myself to vote for her deal if I was an MP.

Leroy42 · 21-03-2019 02:57PM

Shelga wrote: »

8 days to go, and there still isn’t even the vaguest idea of something that can garner a parliamentary majority. I really think it’s going to be no deal, by default, with a tiny chance article 50 is revoked at the last minute.

I couldn’t bring myself to vote for her deal if I was an MP.

But the MP's won't be simply considering her deal in isolation (which they have done up to this point).

A vote against her deal is effectively a vote for No Deal.

If you were an MP could you bring yourself to vote for a crash out?

ToBeFrank123 · 21-03-2019 02:58PM

For all those Conservative MPs now whinging about TM as Prime Minister, where were they at the last leadership election?

They knew negotiating Brexit was the biggest poisoned chalice ever, so they decided to let her deal with it and then ditch her when all the dirty work was done. Its completely back-fired and its too late to change horses now mid race.

Seth Brundle · 21-03-2019 03:00PM

Two interesting media tweets, the first from Tony Connolly & RTE, the second from ther BBC with Farage talking his usual stuff and an exasperated Anna Soubry who doesn't have much time for Nigel...

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1108724157955612673

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1108715679820087296

Leroy42 · 21-03-2019 03:02PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

For all those Conservative MPs now whinging about TM as Prime Minister, where were they at the last leadership election?

They knew negotiating Brexit was the biggest poisoned chalice ever, so they decided to let her deal with it and then ditch her when all the dirty work was done. Its completely back-fired and its too late to change horses now mid race.

Sure, there is plenty of blame to go around.

But fundamentally, and it was shown in all its glory at her speech last night, TM is the fulcrum of this mess. She made the decisions, she made the u-turns, the red lines, she decided to side with the ERG.

All the others could, and should, have done others things, but at the end of the day she has consistently chosen herself and her party instead of the country and the truth.

Joe_ Public · 21-03-2019 03:06PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Two interesting media tweets, the first from Tony Connolly & RTE, the second from ther BBC with Farage talking his usual stuff and an exasperated Anna Soubry who doesn't have much time for Nigel...

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1108724157955612673

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1108715679820087296

Saw that. Fair enough quip about the march but shouldn’t have allowed herself to get drawn into a slanging match with farage. Kind of thing he revels in. Don’t think she emerged all that well from it, Andrew Neil even had to cut her off at the end.

Hurrache · 21-03-2019 03:07PM

Macron has said today that if they deal next week is not voted for they won't be agreeing to a longer extension. I only caught the end of his interview so didn't get the question, so he's probably talking from the perspective of France, and possible others, but it looks like they're more than willing to veto any extension without the WA.

https://twitter.com/Stone_SkyNews/status/1108730681058869249

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1108731379586658305

MadYaker · 21-03-2019 03:17PM

How can there be so much public support for remaining in the EU and both the main parties still supporting brexit?

Zubeneschamali · 21-03-2019 03:17PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

How would that work since TM has stated, and only requested, an extension to 30th June. Therefore no time for a ref on any deal.

It works like this: |The House of Commons passes the Kyle-Wilson amendment saying May's deal is approved if it is then sent for a referendum, options Remain or Leave with Mays deal.

May goes back to the EU and says please sir may I have a long delay. The EU says knock yourselves out, but you must run EU elections.

EU elections happen, referendum campaign happens, referendum happens and then either the referendum says No and Brexit is cancelled, or Yes and Brexit happens per the WA as negotiated (with a new date of whenever in 2020).

listermint · 21-03-2019 03:19PM

MadYaker wrote: »

How can there be so much public support for remaining in the EU and both the main parties still supporting brexit?

Because both parties have been taken over by hardliners of either extreme.

The lunatics are really in charge of the asylum

Shelga · 21-03-2019 03:20PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

But the MP's won't be simply considering her deal in isolation (which they have done up to this point).

A vote against her deal is effectively a vote for No Deal.

If you were an MP could you bring yourself to vote for a crash out?

Argh, I just don’t know. The deal is dire- if leaves the UK subservient to the EU’s desires, and is clearly so much worse than just remaining. It also doesn’t fundamentally solve anything- there is still no solution for how they can be out of the customs union, yet still have no hard border in Ireland, and no regulatory divergence between NI and GB. It just kicks the can further down the road, except now they won’t even be members.

I think I’d vote against it, and beg Tusk for a long extension in order to have a second referendum. Or pray for a last minute revocation.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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