Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

ShooterSF · 20-03-2019 08:13PM

Infini wrote: »

Its been rejected by significant margins twice one being a record. She's trying to bully her agreement through but her deal is seen as no better than no deal so its just as likely to fail a 3rd time. Unless a50 withdrawal or a 2nd referendum is on the table theyre looking at a crash out.

I think at this stage the only thing you can say with confidence on brexit is that you can't be confident of anything! Maybe she'll scare the hard liners in her own party to vote for brexit in the face of a GE or referendum.

PokeHerKing · 20-03-2019 08:16PM

Duane Dibbley wrote:

I actually think her deal will be brought again this week or early next week and will pass.

I thought her deal in its current form was blocked from a third vote by Berrcow?

TheValeyard · 20-03-2019 08:17PM

I honestly think the actions of the British political class maybe the biggest shambles since their dealings with Hitler in the 1930s. And yes I know it's a godwin, but still the whole situation is an absolute farce at this stage. British politics is currently doing a tremendous job at destroying the image of Britain on the world stage.

Shelga · 20-03-2019 08:17PM

So her speech at 20.15 is unlikely to be anything different? Just re-hashing her blackmail of the UK, dressed up as an appeal for unity.

Inquitus · 20-03-2019 08:18PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I thought her deal in its current form was blocked from a third vote by Berrcow?

It only takes a majority of the HoC to set aside Bercow's ruling, so if you have a majority for the deal, you might conclude you have a majority to set aside the ruling.

Laois_Man · 20-03-2019 08:19PM

recedite wrote: »

the UK have always wanted the NI border to be as soft as possible.

..........

Our insistence on a totally frictionless border will have caused the opposite; a very hard border. And that is the Backstop Paradox.

Contradiction!

Either the UK have always wanted the NI border to be as soft as possible, or they don't...which is it? If they won't be in the same CU, there is a hard border whether Ireland insisted upon it or not!

Inquitus · 20-03-2019 08:22PM

Marc Francois on CH4 news, what a twat, why does he get soo much Oxygen. The Tory on before, Minister for Prisons or w/e, came across reasonably well, but he seemed to think the only way this gets through is if Labour switches to back the deal in sufficient numbers.

Joe_ Public · 20-03-2019 08:23PM

Corbyn walked out of the pms meeting because the ind group were present, according to Vince cable on sky. What a strange way to behave, even if meeting appears to hsve been a waste of time.

zapitastas · 20-03-2019 08:27PM

recedite wrote: »

If you read it, you'll see it contains nothing of any substance. Concrete damage limitation proposals did not appear until after Christmas.

Its like I said; friction at a border is always in direct proportion to the level of goodwill and co-operation between the neighbouring states.
"Roundly rejecting" all your neighbour's ideas for a soft border while having no ideas for it yourself leads to.... a hard border.

What were all of these ideas for a soft border? The tech that has yet to be invented? The position of the British has been a farce from the start and their negotiating practice has been impossible to deal with. At this point I think it is pointless to try to deal with this government. This period of chaos will pass and hopefully a more sensible labour led government will emerge from the ashes

recedite · 20-03-2019 08:27PM

fash wrote: »

You'll need to wait until no deal is certain before certain claiming that there are no plans. Until then, optics is a more likely reason not to be specific.

Oh there are plans now, including various promises being made to the beef and dairy farmers to compensate them for the collapse in exports that would result from tariffs.

What I'm saying is that there was precious little planning done until just before Christmas when it became obvious that the UK parliament was going to reject the WA. PM May responded by postponing the "meaningful vote" and Varadkar responded by rushing to publish a vague "Contingency Plan" lacking any substance.
Neither leader had expected the WA to be rejected, hence neither had prepared a Plan B.

fash wrote: »

There is only 1 solution- regulatory alignment. Either they accept it ( with whatever saccharine words are required to make it palatable) or they do not. So accept the backstop - or do not - and that option is already on the table.

Except that threat has so far failed. The WA has not been accepted.
And BTW its regulatory alignment and customs union that would be required to maintain the frictionless border that we have now.

Such threats can result in either a hard Brexit, or no Brexit.
A soft (but not totally frictionless) border could have been achieved post Brexit, but it would have required RoI to pursue a different, less antagonistic, strategy.

Headshot · 20-03-2019 08:30PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Corbyn walked out of the pms meeting because the ind group were present, according to Vince cable on sky. What a strange way to behave, even if meeting appears to hsve been a waste of time.

What a child.

I can't believe he's so irresponsible. How this man is the labour leader is beyond me

Inquitus · 20-03-2019 08:31PM

recedite wrote: »

Such threats can result in either a hard Brexit, or no Brexit.
A soft border could have been achieved post Brexit, but it would have required RoI to pursue a different, less antagonistic, strategy.

The vast majority of our nation, and nearly all of our political parties, are behind our position, as such our Politicians have done a good job of representing our interests, along with the EU showing us the solidarity we deserve.

MrMusician18 · 20-03-2019 08:31PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

I thought her deal in its current form was blocked from a third vote by Berrcow?

I think the idea is that if the Strasbourg agreement is endorsed by the council tomorrow, May is hoping that will be enough for it to be considered a new proposition.

Bercow will be under tremendous pressure to relent, but it remains to be seen of course what he'll do.

Spanish Eyes · 20-03-2019 08:33PM

Headshot wrote: »

What a child.

I can't believe he's so irresponsible. How this man is the labour leader is beyond me

More to the point, how this man is allowed to carry on as Leader of the Opposition by the Labour Party is totally beyond me!

I wish someone would explain why he has not been kicked out yet. Momentum must have some internal powers or something. There are so many sh!t hot Labour MPs and shadow ministers. Surely someone could see sense.

Baffled.

Joe_ Public · 20-03-2019 08:34PM

Headshot wrote: »

What a child.

I can't believe he's so irresponsible. How this man is the labour leader is beyond me

I was inclined to defend him for a long time, but that passed some time back. He just can’t pull that party together, period. I don’t believe they are going far until somebody, Starmer would be my choice, with no excess baggage takes over.

recedite · 20-03-2019 08:35PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Contradiction!

Either the UK have always wanted the NI border to be as soft as possible, or they don't...which is it? If they won't be in the same CU, there is a hard border whether Ireland insisted upon it or not!

As soft as possible. The UK position has always been very consistent on that. Even the DUP have been consistent on it.

Like the German-Swiss border, or the Swedish-Norwegian border.
You'd be surprised what can be achieved when both sides co-operate to make it happen.

Headshot · 20-03-2019 08:36PM

Huge respect to Dominic Grieve

Conservative MP Dominic Grieve on his friend Theresa May's "zigzagging" on #Brexit

MrMusician18 · 20-03-2019 08:39PM

recedite wrote: »

Oh there are plans now, including various promises being made to the beef and dairy farmers to compensate them for the collapse in exports that would result from tariffs.

What I'm saying is that there was precious little planning done until just before Christmas when it became obvious that the UK parliament was going to reject the WA. PM May responded by postponing the "meaningful vote" and Varadkar responded by rushing to publish a vague "Contingency Plan" lacking any substance.
Neither leader had expected the WA to be rejected, hence neither had prepared a Plan B.

Except that threat has so far failed. The WA has not been accepted.
And BTW its regulatory alignment and customs union that would be required to maintain the frictionless border that we have now.

Such threats can result in either a hard Brexit, or no Brexit.
A soft (but not totally frictionless) border could have been achieved post Brexit, but it would have required RoI to pursue a different, less antagonistic, strategy.

I don't know how you can claim (credibly) there was no planning. There obviously was, and the support for the agriculture that you reference is an obvious result of that planning. Again, these things were not rash of the cuff decisions by the EU it the Irish government, but have been worked through and agreed, which takes time.

As I said, all of the no deal planning had happened behind closed doors because there was the obvious fear of it becoming self fulfilling.

If you feel mislead or let down by not being kept fully informed, well bless your naivety.

Enzokk · 20-03-2019 08:39PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Corbyn walked out of the pms meeting because the ind group were present, according to Vince cable on sky. What a strange way to behave, even if meeting appears to hsve been a waste of time.

He doesn't seem too clued up on making the optics work for him. This meeting was in all likelihood just a ploy by May but he is not helping himself or Labour by walking out before she even has started her pitch. If he wanted to walk out it had to be when May said something unreasonable, but to walk out due to Chuka Umunna being there is just as farcical and ridiculous as the government has been behaving. Nothing will change with Corbyn in charge, it will be just as chaotic as now.

milhous · 20-03-2019 08:40PM

recedite wrote: »

As soft as possible. The UK position has always been very consistent on that. Even the DUP have been consistent on it.

Like the German-Swiss border, or the Swedish-Norwegian border.
You'd be surprised what can be achieved when both sides co-operate to make it happen.

Consistent on the notion that they can have their cake and eat it too. Swiss are well aligned with EU regulation and are happy with that.. UK want to leave being governed by EU completely if every shape and form but want a soft border with an EU member state.. Yeah... They're the reasonable ones

Inquitus · 20-03-2019 08:41PM

recedite wrote: »

As soft as possible. The UK position has always been very consistent on that. Even the DUP have been consistent on it.

Like the German-Swiss border, or the Swedish-Norwegian border.
You'd be surprised what can be achieved when both sides co-operate to make it happen.

LOL, what a load of nonsense, we have all see how the Swiss German border is on the various news, current affairs shows, frictionless it is not. It also doesn't have the @200 crossing points our border has, Sweden - Norway has 40 for instance and Switzerland - Germany 42. Not to mention both of those pairs subscribe to European standards and Freedom of Movement.

Joe_ Public · 20-03-2019 08:43PM

Headshot wrote: »

Huge respect to Dominic Grieve

Conservative MP Dominic Grieve on his friend Theresa May's "zigzagging" on #Brexit

Absolutely, respect. Some MPs have distinguished themselves through this whole thing. Some might disagree but i would put Anna Soubry up there too, my only question would be why weren’t we seeing this anger and passion many months ago when it might have made a real difference?

recedite · 20-03-2019 08:44PM

Inquitus wrote: »

The vast majority of our nation, and nearly all of our political parties, are behind our position, as such our Politicians have done a good job of representing our interests, along with the EU showing us the solidarity we deserve.

I'll agree with the first part, disagree with the middle part, and as for the last part - lets just say we have been "extremely useful" to Brussels.
They have always wanted to make exiting the union as difficult and costly as possible, pour encourager les autres.

Inquitus · 20-03-2019 08:44PM

Some interesting Sky News polling data, obv not super reliable but still.

Donald Trump · 20-03-2019 08:45PM

recedite wrote: »

A soft (but not totally frictionless) border could have been achieved post Brexit, but it would have required RoI to pursue a different, less antagonistic, strategy.

Genuine question. What sources do you get your news/information from?

"RoI" stance has merely been to stand over the GFA that they are a signatory to.

Water John · 20-03-2019 08:45PM

It seems Lidington had given the EU the impression yesterday that the letter would be for a long ext. When it arrived it was for a short ext. WTF.

TM didn't go the 1922 Committee this evening. It was said she would have been attacked if she had turned up.

Inquitus · 20-03-2019 08:46PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

Genuine question. What sources do you get your news/information from?

"RoI" stance has merely been to stand over the GFA that they are a signatory to.

With respect Mr Trump, he gets his news from the same places you do

Inquitus · 20-03-2019 08:47PM

Water John wrote: »

It seems Lidington had given the EU the impression yesterday that the letter would be for a long ext. When it arrived it was for a short ext. WTF.

Aye, the Brexiteers in the Cabinet basically threatened to resign enmasse, splitting the Tories badly in the process, and May took the option of putting her Party before her Country again.

recedite · 20-03-2019 08:48PM

Inquitus wrote: »

LOL, what a load of nonsense, we have all see how the Swiss German border is on the various news, current affairs shows, frictionless it is not. It also doesn't have the @200 crossing points our border has, Sweden - Norway has 40 for instance and Switzerland - Germany 42. Not to mention both of those pairs subscribe to European standards and Freedom of Movement.

Are you including gravel roads in that estimate? You know Britain and Ireland are probably the only places in the world that try to keep all the tiny boreens and minor roads tarred?

Anyway, you have missed my point entirely. Those borders are not frictionless. They are soft. And people living in those border regions are quite happy with them.

Anteayer · 20-03-2019 08:48PM

To be perfectly honest, I don't buy these conspiracy theories about "Brussels". They've been very transparent about what they're doing, far more so than the manipulative, paranoid, delusional nonsense coming out of London for the last two years.

Irish and EU interests align on this because they're one and the same thing. Also, nobody wants to see chaos in Northern Ireland. Most of Europe remembers the horrors of the 1970s, 80s and early 90s. It was one of the most dangerous civil conflicts in Europe for decades, far worse than what was going on in the Basque Country or anywhere else. It was almost at the level of a civil war, in Western Europe in the later part of the 20th century.

They also are very familiar with the DUP and its former leader hurling abuse at the Pope during a courtesy visit to the EP back in the day.

They're genuinely standing by a member of the EU that's being threatened and exposed by a soon to be former member that's extremely hostile the whole European project and has been for years.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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