Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk · 13-03-2019 06:51PM

Water John wrote: »

Spellman had some rambling explanation relaying an email she got from a constituent, but really whip pressure IWT.
She was withdrawing her motion at the wrong time and cannot act for her co signatories. But it takes the heat out of it for the Govn't.

Here is some information on the Spellman amendment and what has happened apparently.

https://twitter.com/politicalhackuk/status/1105888357425524736

Infini · 13-03-2019 06:53PM

maebee wrote: »

Unionist farmer from Fermanagh very disillusioned with his elected reps, saying that NI will be resigned to a wasteland.
"People need bread & butter on the table, they can't eat a flag." He admits that Dublin has been more concerned about NI than Westminster has. Worth a listen:

Lunchtime Live - from 12.08

https://www.newstalk.com/listen-back

Its these people the likes of the DUP are selling out for their ideological delusions and why they're utterly shooting their own heads off with their antics. Would certainly love to hear what that guy would think of Sammy Shítstirrers little chippy comment too and its people like them that wouod seriously consider a UI if presented with the option.

Professor Moriarty · 13-03-2019 06:53PM

lawred2 wrote: »

I get that.

They want an extension to do what?

Dunno. You'll have to ask YouGov!

J Mysterio · 13-03-2019 06:57PM

This is a little heartbreaking. Don't think it will embed unfortunately.

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bu8lU4NjHUx/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=embed_loading_state_control

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 06:57PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Dunno. You'll have to ask YouGov!

Stupid poll in my opinion. An extension isn't an endgame.

Shelga · 13-03-2019 07:05PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

This is a little heartbreaking. Don't think it will embed unfortunately.

https://www.instagram.com/p/Bu8lU4NjHUx/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=embed_loading_state_control

Thought it was real until the unicorn drawing, that’s one sarcastic 6 year old.

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 07:12PM

Water John wrote: »

Spellman had some rambling explanation relaying an email she got from a constituent, but really whip pressure IWT.
She was withdrawing her motion at the wrong time and cannot act for her co signatories. But it takes the heat out of it for the Govn't.

It's still up there though and can still be voted upon. It's a mess, Sky are even confused as to what's happening.

Mr.Nice Guy · 13-03-2019 07:14PM

Infini wrote: »

Its these people the likes of the DUP are selling out for their ideological delusions and why they're utterly shooting their own heads off with their antics. Would certainly love to hear what that guy would think of Sammy Shtirrers little chippy comment too and its people like them that wouod seriously consider a UI if presented with the option.

Unfortunately I think these people are the minority. Was listening to the Nolan Show and Talkback on BBC NI today and there's no indication of the unionist public being unhappy with the DUP. A few callers trotting out the line "nobody knows what's going to happen".

A recent Lucid Talk poll in January showed 65% of unionists preferred No Deal to 25% for May's deal. I'm not sure that number will have moved much in the last few weeks.

As Paisley showed last night on Newsnight, the DUP don't care about what the majority of NI thinks - "it's a sectarian headcount" in his own words - only what their base thinks; so as long as the polls show most unionists are with the DUP message, the DUP won't budge an inch.

otnomart · 13-03-2019 07:14PM

New odds from Jon Worth:
-No Deal 32%
-Gen Election (req Art 50 ext.) 23%
-May's Deal 1%
-Spiral of tedium 16%
-#PeoplesVote (req ext.) 17%
-Rescind Art50 3%
-UK in EU until 2020 6%
https://jonworth.eu/brexit-where-now-the-flow-diagrams/
If I was betting, I would put money on a General Election

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 07:14PM

Shelga wrote: »

Thought it was real until the unicorn drawing, that’s one sarcastic 6 year old.

I did laugh when I saw it today, I'd say a sarcy parent may have suggested it.

Harry Palmr · 13-03-2019 07:15PM

HoC debate (member for North West Leicestershire who fought them on the beaches) - Oh boy GATT article 24 invoked again :rolleyes:

J Mysterio · 13-03-2019 07:16PM

Shelga wrote: »

Thought it was real until the unicorn drawing, that’s one sarcastic 6 year old.

Well, thats a little cynical. Could well be little Sophie overheard the adults talking about Brexit (unicorns).

Professor Moriarty · 13-03-2019 07:21PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Stupid poll in my opinion. An extension isn't an endgame.

I'm not sure what point you're making?

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 07:23PM

More on the direct rule thing, it apparently was May who brought it up. I still don't see it as a threat to the DUP though.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1105882063373246465?s=19

spacecoyote · 13-03-2019 07:25PM

https://twitter.com/TheIndGroup/status/1105549441141014531

@Leroy

You mentioned earlier that no one is calling out the fact the Brexit campaign pols have disappeared, leaving ordinary Joe to pay the price.

Soubry did her best to do so it appears

Roger_007 · 13-03-2019 07:28PM

Hurrache wrote: »

More on the direct rule thing, it apparently was May who brought it up. I still don't see it as a threat to the DUP though.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1105882063373246465?s=19

The DUP would only be delighted with DR. Any excuse to ditch the Assembly which they have no intention of going back to anyway.

Professor Moriarty · 13-03-2019 07:29PM

A Lib Dem MP opened up the debate today by asking if any MPs stood to make money out of No Deal. Needless to say, nobody put their hands up.

Havockk · 13-03-2019 07:29PM

Hurrache wrote: »

More on the direct rule thing, it apparently was May who brought it up. I still don't see it as a threat to the DUP though.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1105882063373246465?s=19

The DUP would most likely be quite happy to return to DR. Not sure how Peston thinks this is pressure being exerted on them.

Imreoir2 · 13-03-2019 07:29PM

Hurrache wrote: »

More on the direct rule thing, it apparently was May who brought it up. I still don't see it as a threat to the DUP though.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1105882063373246465?s=19

Not a threat to the DUP, if anything the DUP would be quite happy with direct rule shutting SF out of power compleatly, but it is definatly a threat to NI's future in the UK.

briany · 13-03-2019 07:31PM

maebee wrote: »

Unionist farmer from Fermanagh very disillusioned with his elected reps, saying that NI will be resigned to a wasteland.
"People need bread & butter on the table, they can't eat a flag." He admits that Dublin has been more concerned about NI than Westminster has. Worth a listen:

We have to remember that NI represents but a small fraction of the overall UK population. It's sort of the UK's Carlow. Easily forgotten about, and I worry the UK are only begrudgingly sticking to their commitment to peace in the region.

prawnsambo · 13-03-2019 07:32PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Not a threat to the DUP, if anything the DUP would be quite happy with direct rule shutting SF out of power compleatly, but it is definatly a threat to NI's future in the UK.

Well they might stop getting paid their salaries. Not sure they'd be fond of that idea. And of course no more cash for ash.

Harry Palmr · 13-03-2019 07:33PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A Lib Dem MP opened up the debate today by asking if any MPs stood to make money out of No Deal. Needless to say, nobody put their hands up.

Anna Soubry (or was it Jess Phillips) alluded to the Minister for the 18th century Dublin based fiscal maneuvering in her speech.

briany · 13-03-2019 07:34PM

Hurrache wrote: »

More on the direct rule thing, it apparently was May who brought it up. I still don't see it as a threat to the DUP though.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1105882063373246465?s=19

The DUP would love it, up until the point that the Westminster government starts legislating in favour of abortion and same-sex marriage.

Professor Moriarty · 13-03-2019 07:36PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Anna Soubry (or was it Jess Phillips) alluded to the Minister for the 18th century Dublin based fiscal maneuvering in her speech.

She was actually quoting (or misquoting) an Irishman - Niall Fitzgerald - who called him "The honourable member for the 17th century."

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 07:38PM

Big Phil slating the UKs tariff regime, says the UK are seeking to frighten Ireland with it. They'll be looking at the legality of it and doesn't see it happening any time soon anyway.

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 07:39PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm not sure what point you're making?

It's a poll with an option which means nothing. All that says is that 49% of respondents want to delay their desired but unspecified end game for some indeterminate length of time.

No intelligence can be drawn from such an option in a poll.

Harry Palmr · 13-03-2019 07:40PM

Is anyone watching the live debate? John Baron is being comprehensively ignored.

Professor Moriarty · 13-03-2019 07:44PM

lawred2 wrote: »

It's a poll with an option which means nothing. All that says is that 49% of respondents want to delay their desired but unspecified end game for some indeterminate length of time.

No intelligence can be drawn from such an option in a poll.

I disagree, It illustrates that 34% of people are happy for Britain to crash out and 49% want it delayed. It's a very recent poll so most people would be aware of the binary option - crash out or extension. There were no other options. From that perspective, it's valid.

CelticRambler · 13-03-2019 07:48PM

briany wrote: »

The DUP would love it, up until the point that the Westminster government starts legislating in favour of abortion and same-sex marriage.

Yeah, on the face of it, it's a DUP's wet dream, but I'd wonder if it's a Trojan horse - the start of GB winding down its involvement in the troublesome province. Irish Sea border today, abortion & same-sex marriage tomorrow, reduced public service next week; wouldn't be long before the majority couldn't see the point in red, white and blue kerbstones.

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 07:50PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I disagree, It illustrates that 34% of people are happy for Britain to crash out and 49% want it delayed. It's a very recent poll so most people would be aware of the binary option - crash out or extension. There were no other options. From that perspective, it's valid.

Fair enough.

It informative as to support levels for dropping out with no deal. But that's about it.

Still quite high all things considered

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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