Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog · 12-03-2019 06:28PM

BTW the debate is here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KilLxiMO50A

I wouldn't use the Parliament website...it's useless and keeps stalling.

Tacitus Kilgore · 12-03-2019 06:29PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I wouldn't use the Parliament website...it's useless and keeps stalling.

:pac:

Kermit.de.frog · 12-03-2019 06:31PM

Mod: Enough one-liners please.

Water John · 12-03-2019 06:33PM

Sky were saying earlier that it feels strange. That you don't have the feverish rushing around of the whips etc.
Chris Walker Con MP, I think was on earlier and said Gov't cannot continue in this way.
A defeat for TM this evening means the end of this Govn't, maybe not immediately but will be it's death knell.
Getting her Deal passed with it then being put to the people, may be coming attractive.

enda1 · 12-03-2019 06:34PM

I'm thinking that if they vote against "no deal" tomorrow, won't they accidentally close the door entirely on an extension? After all they'll lock themselves legally into two choices; 1, rescind article 50 or 2, ratify the WA.

Am I reading this correctly? Why would the EU grant an extension when the UK parliament would have cornered itself into the two most favourable choices for the EU?

First Up · 12-03-2019 06:35PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote:

I wouldn't use the Parliament website...it's useless and keeps stalling.

So is the Parliament.

BluePlanet · 12-03-2019 06:44PM

enda1 wrote: »

I'm thinking that if they vote against "no deal" tomorrow, won't they accidentally close the door entirely on an extension? After all they'll lock themselves legally into two choices; 1, rescind article 50 or 2, ratify the WA.

Am I reading this correctly? Why would the EU grant an extension when the UK parliament would have cornered itself into the two most favourable choices for the EU?

Exactly, which is why as things stand today, the EU should say No to an extension.

J Mysterio · 12-03-2019 06:44PM

Crabb saying the Backstop was an EU concession and an achievement of UK diplomacy, despite the fact the UK didnt plan enough and didn't think ahead.

Says that those believing it 'traps the UK' are conspiracy theorists and people must not trash the Backstop . Supporting May deal.

prawnsambo · 12-03-2019 06:45PM

May never used the nuclear weapon against the ERG: Vote for my deal or I'll call a general election. Nothing would concentrate minds more than the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn getting into No. 10.

Akrasia · 12-03-2019 06:45PM

enda1 wrote: »

I'm thinking that if they vote against "no deal" tomorrow, won't they accidentally close the door entirely on an extension? After all they'll lock themselves legally into two choices; 1, rescind article 50 or 2, ratify the WA.

Am I reading this correctly? Why would the EU grant an extension when the UK parliament would have cornered itself into the two most favourable choices for the EU?

Because the chance of them revoking article 50 without a 2nd refeeendum is very remote, and if the EU tries to play hardball in the last two weeks it makes a crash out more likely because even if they vote to rule out No Deal, unless they vote for something the default is still no deal

BluePlanet · 12-03-2019 06:47PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Indeed. The hate is visceral, consequently many of them wouldn't be able to tell you why they feel the way they do. Not with any logic anyway.

It's an emotional reaction.
I think its because the "EU" represents the French and Germans getting along greatly and the Brits are the odd man out.
They hate the French and Germans ergo they hate the EU.

robindch · 12-03-2019 06:48PM

enda1 wrote: »

Why would the EU grant an extension when the UK parliament would have cornered itself into the two most favourable choices for the EU?

One obvious choice is for the EU to extend Article 50 to December 2020 or 2021 to allow a Final Agreement to be negotiated. That would mean there’s no WA needed, hence no backstop either.

It would require the EU and UK to agree to conclude this final agreement by then in the first place - which they’ve already done, kind of - but given the UK’s erratic behaviour, negligible negotiating talent and preference for internal bickering over external discussions, it’s perhaps a little ambitious to expect this to arrive on time.

robindch · 12-03-2019 06:52PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

May never used the nuclear weapon against the ERG: Vote for my deal or I'll call a general election.

Didnt TM say last year that she would not lead the Tories in the next general election campaign?

Throughout this omnishambles, TM has been quite consistent in only two things a) saying or doing whatever’s necessary to keep the Tories united and b) saying or doing whatever’s necessary to keep her in as PM.

L1011 · 12-03-2019 06:53PM

robindch wrote: »

Didnt TM say last year that she would not lead the Tories in the next general election campaign?

Throughout this omnishambles, TM has been quite consistent in only two things a) saying or doing whatever’s necessary to keep the Tories united and b) saying or doing whatever’s necessary to keep her in as PM.

Next *scheduled* GE was the claim. Allows weaselling out of it for a snap one

GM228 · 12-03-2019 07:20PM

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1105531020575678466?s=19

Let there be no illusions here.

demfad · 12-03-2019 07:21PM

Choices now:
1: Short extension=May's deal will pass during extension
2: Long extension=no-brexit
3: No-deal can only happen now on March 29th IMO

If the vote is close tonight 1: is more likely.

Expect zealots to try and induce chaos and true saboteurs to try and force default no-deal

Mr.Nice Guy · 12-03-2019 07:21PM

Was watching the report from the BBC's Emma Vardy on the border. Speaks to some schoolkids and is sure to include the one boy who thinks Brexit would be a good idea in her report. Also the inclusion of the 'Welcome to Muff' sign since it's all a big laugh.

Zubeneschamali · 12-03-2019 07:26PM

robinph wrote: »

You should be voting for your MP based on who you think is the best for putting the interests of your local community forward for the next 5 years, not the single option of in or out of the EU.

Strongly disagree. Leaving the EU could make you and your local community worse off for 50 years.

10000maniacs · 12-03-2019 07:26PM

joe40 wrote: »

This might be a bit simplistic but what do people see as the likely outcomes here

1Passing WA tonight
2Not passing WA, no deal exit on the 29th
3Extension of article 50 for a few Months, go through this same nonsense again
4Second referendum
5GE
6Labour win go for customs union
7Tories win... I'm at a loss now

I give up trying to second guess this whole shambles

The EU are not going to extend Article 50 if May's deal fails.

prawnsambo · 12-03-2019 07:26PM

GM228 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1105531020575678466?s=19

Let there be no illusions here.

Completely pant-wettingly bonkers that he has to say this. To a parliament. Of an EU member state. Who have been in the throes of an exit negotiation based on a five section Article of the Treaty of Lisbon for almost three years.

joe40 · 12-03-2019 07:27PM

demfad wrote: »

Choices now:
1: Short extension=May's deal will pass during extension
2: Long extension=no-brexit
3: No-deal can only happen now on March 29th IMO

If the vote is close tonight 1: is more likely.

Expect zealots to try and induce chaos and true saboteurs to try and force default no-deal

I thought juncker said there would not be a third vote.
The clown Jeffrey Donaldson was on this morning still spouting the nonsense line that more concessions can be gotten between now and the 29th

Calltocall · 12-03-2019 07:28PM

So projections are that tm will lose this vote by over 100 votes, all that effort, last minute talks for nothing, are they that inept that they couldn’t see this was the likely outcome, a waste of time, only outcome now realistically is an extension

Spanish Eyes · 12-03-2019 07:31PM

Calltocall wrote: »

So projections are that tm will lose this vote by over 100 votes, all that effort, last minute talks for nothing, are they that inept that they couldn’t see this was the likely outcome, a waste of time, only outcome now realistically is an extension

An extension for what though? No one in Parliament or HoC seems to know what might be achieved by an extension to A50.

Baffled again me.

liamtech · 12-03-2019 07:34PM

a short term extension is pointless - i think a longer one but it would be contingent on a complete change of approach and that would be a General Election

prawnsambo · 12-03-2019 07:36PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

An extension for what though? No one in Parliament or HoC seems to know what might be achieved by an extension to A50.

Baffled again me.

They're all baffled. The only things they know are what they don't want. And most of them are so happy in their ignorance.

tuxy · 12-03-2019 07:37PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

An extension for what though? No one in Parliament or HoC seems to know what might be achieved by an extension to A50.

Baffled again me.

When they vote to prevent no deal tomorrow they will have no choice but to beg for an extension. It's up to the EU27 to decide, there is some possibility that Ireland and the Netherlands could convince the rest for some kind of extension to get our shipping and customs in order.

brendanwalsh · 12-03-2019 07:40PM

SNIP. No more one-liners please.

adox · 12-03-2019 07:40PM

Isn’t the most likely outcome that ultimately the UK will never leave?

Irishmale0399 · 12-03-2019 07:42PM

Can we now please lobby Brussels to just tell them it over on the 29.03.2019 and put an end to it. Its like watching a dog chasing its bloody tail.

Donald Trump · 12-03-2019 07:42PM

tuxy wrote: »

When they vote to prevent no deal tomorrow they will have no choice but to beg for an extension. It's up to the EU27 to decide, there is some possibility that Ireland and the Netherlands could convince the rest for some kind of extension to get our shipping and customs in order.

One would assume that any extension is going to be dependent on any due amount from the owed 39bn being paid up.

Else let them feck off

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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