Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

ToBeFrank123 · 12-03-2019 04:31PM

As it stands, WA not to pass tonight unless many MPs have a last minute change of mind.
No Deal voted off the table. Extension voted for. EU grant 3 month extension.
May possibly stands down - it doesn't seem to matter what she brings back, the ERG and DUP will oppose it.
Leadership election. Hardline Brexiteer, if they can grow a pair, takes over.
Gives an ultimatum to EU to cave in on something or other or else No Deal.
EU doesn't cave in, UK leaves EU on June 29th with no deal.

(If the WA is voted down tonight).

ambro25 · 12-03-2019 04:36PM

joe40 wrote: »

This might be a bit simplistic but what do people see as the likely outcomes here

1Passing WA tonight
2Not passing WA, no deal exit on the 29th
3Extension of article 50 for a few Months, go through this same nonsense again
4Second referendum
5GE
6Labour win go for customs union
7Tories win... I'm at a loss now

I give up trying to second guess this whole shambles

I've stuck solidly to a "no deal Brexit by accident" outcome since summer 2017, deeming the political landscape to be hopelessly snookered in the UK, stuck fast against an inexorable clock.

Since that time, I've only seen events, occurrences, votes and opinion polls in the UK reinforcing that belief, rather than make it waver.

I still don't clearly see whether it's (majoritarily) obstinacy, fatalism or simply apathy, but the Brits don't understand, and don't care to understand, enough. About the EU, about civil law, about Art.50, about the world outside their artificial nationalistic bubble, about reactions that irremediably follow actions, about modern-day geopolitics...about a lot, and I'm trying hard to be civil here, rater than contemptuous.

And after well over 3 years of nothing-but-Brexit in the UK, expecting majority sentiment to change (sufficiently to influence the collective behaviour of a critical mass of MPs beyond party politics) over a timescale of the remaining 17 days is beyond optimistic, tbh.

liamtech · 12-03-2019 04:36PM

Sammy Wilson Apparently appearing on Sky News shortly

Kermit.de.frog · 12-03-2019 04:37PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

(If the WA is voted down tonight).

I still think decent chance it won't be voted down.

Also there is not a chance in hell of the UK leaving with no deal.

It's not only the economic damage the UK would inflict upon itself but what the EU could also impose to protect it's own market particularly in financial services.

My bet is ultimately second referendum.

Leroy42 · 12-03-2019 04:39PM

I think the mood has changed. Some in the ERG are saying that they voted down the deal in January on the basis that TM could get more from the EU, but this has been well and truly knocked for six at this point. So what would voting down the deal now achieve?

A possible No deal of course, but a possible delay or even 2nd Ref is a possibility as well. That would be a disaster for the Brexiteers. So, as TM has continually said, they really have a straightforward choice.

This is the Brexit that is available. it might not be what they had hoped for, but reality has a habit of getting in the way.

Whilst I don't think this change of mood will be enough to secure a yes to her deal, will it be enough to show that a sizeable amount of MP's have shifted their position and thus it worthwhile to hold another vote later this week?

Professor Moriarty · 12-03-2019 04:40PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I still think decent chance it won't be voted down.

Also there is not a chance in hell of the UK leaving with no deal.

It's not only the economic damage the UK would inflict upon itself but what the EU could also impose to protect it's own market particularly in financial services.

My bet is ultimately second referendum.

If you really think that the WA has a chance of getting through, Paddy Power is now offering 9/1 on that. Offering 1/50 on it being voted down.

Strazdas · 12-03-2019 04:40PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think the mood has changed. Some in the ERG are saying that they voted down the deal in January on the basis that TM could get more from the EU, but this has been well and truly knocked for six at this point. So what would voting down the deal now achieve?

A possible No deal of course, but a possible delay or even 2nd Ref is a possibility as well. That would be a disaster for the Brexiteers. So, as TM has continually said, they really have a straightforward choice.

This is the Brexit that is available. it might not be what they had hoped for, but reality has a habit of getting in the way.

Whilst I don't think this change of mood will be enough to secure a yes to her deal, will it be enough to show that a sizeable amount of MP's have shifted their position and thus it worthwhile to hold another vote later this week?

It's hard to imagine any of the ERG voting for the deal. I don't see that shift in votes happening at all.

cmac2009 · 12-03-2019 04:41PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think the mood has changed. Some in the ERG are saying that they voted down the deal in January on the basis that TM could get more from the EU, but this has been well and truly knocked for six at this point. So what would voting down the deal now achieve?

A possible No deal of course, but a possible delay or even 2nd Ref is a possibility as well. That would be a disaster for the Brexiteers. So, as TM has continually said, they really have a straightforward choice.

This is the Brexit that is available. it might not be what they had hoped for, but reality has a habit of getting in the way.

Whilst I don't think this change of mood will be enough to secure a yes to her deal, will it be enough to show that a sizeable amount of MP's have shifted their position and thus it worthwhile to hold another vote later this week?

Another vote later this week?! What just keep going until the 29th?

Kermit.de.frog · 12-03-2019 04:41PM

Sammy Wilson on Sky News.

Hurrache · 12-03-2019 04:41PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think the mood has changed. Some in the ERG are saying that they voted down the deal in January on the basis that TM could get more from the EU, but this has been well and truly knocked for six at this point. So what would voting down the deal now achieve?

The ERG speaking in the commons a short while ago, Cash, insinuated the ERG will be voting against it. JRM earlier also implied that he believed that the EU saying that this is the final offer was not actually try so therefore it's safe to vote against it this evening.

Snickers Man · 12-03-2019 04:41PM

munstermagic11 wrote: »

The really Evil Empire, that allows you to leave by just voting for it. If only the British Empire had been so generous.

THIS!

At the end of the day, all Britain had to do to leave the EU was write a letter to Donald Tusk saying "We're out of here in two years". Compare that to what people who wanted to leave the British Empire had to go through.

Like for example:
the Americans: a war lasting eight years, followed by another one 30 years later
the Cypriots: a bitter guerilla war, intercommunal violence, partition and a a probably permanently divided island.
The Kenyans: a vicious guerilla war, complete with massacres, free-fire zones, mass incarceration, torture, internment etc
The Indians (includng Sri Lankans, Pakistanis, and Bangla Deshis) Decades of nonviolent agitation punctuated by massacres, internment, martial law and let's not forget, famines that put our own Gorta Mór in the ha'penny place
Yemenis:
Burmese: a fatal "divide and rule" policy which had various elements of the country at each other's throats during the Second World War with the result that in some ways, that conflict is still going on there
Malayans: a test bed for "low intensity operations" pioneering the use of "special forces" and selective assassinations as well as your commoner garden "counter insurgency" operations

Need I go on?

CelticRambler · 12-03-2019 04:43PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Moggster is on Sky News now.

ERG have not decided yet. They are meeting later. They are weighing risk of no Brexit against DUP concerns.

i.e very possible they could still back the deal.

Yeah, thought he looked a bit shell shocked and was uncharacteristically lacking in confidence in his pronouncements. I think they're all shattered, and the truest believers are stunned that the EU hasn't given even a hint of blinking.

The ERG and the DUP probably also desperately trying to figure out WTF happens now, because neither of them ever really expected to get what they wished for, and what they wished for wasn't really what they wanted.

Kiith · 12-03-2019 04:45PM

Trapping Britain, control of our own money, subject to EU laws. All the classics from Sammy there :rolleyes:

What possible reason do the EU have to allow an extension? Clearly nothing is going to change, and nothing other then a complete climbdown from the EU (which won't happen) will be accepted by the HOC. Pushing it down the road only delays the inevitable.

Macy0161 · 12-03-2019 04:46PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Gives an ultimatum to EU to cave in on something or other or else No Deal.

No deal still won't have a majority, and will have been taken off the table. It'd just be back to HoC trying to take control from the executive. The only solutions at this point are May ceding control to HoC, 2nd referendum, and General Election.

May is so set on "deliverying brexit", I'd actually put the 2nd referendum as very live prospect, although she might try to make it binary between her deal and no deal, rather than her deal and remain...

Hurrache · 12-03-2019 04:46PM

Corbyn continues to be a joke.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1105460280069443584

Professor Moriarty · 12-03-2019 04:47PM

Kiith wrote: »

What possible reason do the EU have to allow an extension? Clearly nothing is going to change, and nothing other then a complete climbdown from the EU (which won't happen) will be accepted by the HOC. Pushing it down the road only delays the inevitable.

At this stage, the only alternative to an extension is that the UK crashes out.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-03-2019 04:49PM

Sammy Wilson (who comes across as a glorified County Councilor way out of his depth in that interview) just confirmed DUP are not abstaining, they are voting against.

Inquitus · 12-03-2019 04:50PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Moggster is on Sky News now.

ERG have not decided yet. They are meeting later. They are weighing risk of no Brexit against DUP concerns.

i.e very possible they could still back the deal.

This could pass without the DUP if all the ERG vote for it.

blanch152 · 12-03-2019 04:51PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

A hard Brexit with a hard border on the Island will decimate NI, and make a United Ireland more likely as moderates look across the hard border at EU membership. SF win again.

That makes a very big assumption that the South isn't decimated too by a hard Brexit. There is a possibility that we would be hit even harder than NI, particularly as we are falling from a higher baseline.

cmac2009 · 12-03-2019 04:52PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sammy Wilson (who comes across as a glorified County Councilor way out of his depth in that interview) just confirmed DUP are not abstaining, they are voting against.

He has been shown up so many times in interviews as a clueless idiot. How do these fools get so far in politics.

FrancieBrady · 12-03-2019 04:52PM

Macy0161 wrote: »

No deal still won't have a majority, and will have been taken off the table. It'd just be back to HoC trying to take control from the executive. The only solutions at this point are May ceding control to HoC, 2nd referendum, and General Election.

May is so set on "deliverying brexit", I'd actually put the 2nd referendum as very live prospect, although she might try to make it binary between her deal and no deal, rather than her deal and remain...

As somebody said last night, Taking 'No Deal' off the table is not a 'vote'.
It is either Deal or there is no Deal.
After that, it is either negotiate an extension or crash out. You cannot vote for No Deal is the point, it's a nonsense vote.

Inquitus · 12-03-2019 04:52PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Corbyn continues to be a joke.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1105460280069443584

That's such a damning indictment of Corbyn, given the chaos the Tories are in.

robinph · 12-03-2019 04:54PM

Inquitus wrote: »

This could pass without the DUP if all the ERG vote for it.

Are there not more Tory remainers who will vote against than Labour supporters of the deal?

snotboogie · 12-03-2019 04:55PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

As somebody said last night, Taking 'No Deal' off the table is not a 'vote'.
It is either Deal or there is no Deal.
After that, it is either negotiate an extension or crash out. You cannot vote for No Deal is the point, it's a nonsense vote.

This, no deal doesn't need a majority. It is the default position. A vote on no deal isn't binding and just shows the intent of parliament.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-03-2019 05:02PM

Not looking good for the deal right now. With DUP 100% against...

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1105490036873674752

Frank Bullitt · 12-03-2019 05:05PM

https://twitter.com/fotoole/status/1105430540818235392

This is quite true, and depressing.

An Ciarraioch · 12-03-2019 05:05PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Corbyn continues to be a joke.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1105460280069443584

Unfortunately, vote leaching to the Greens merely increases the Tory seat numbers.

Imreoir2 · 12-03-2019 05:06PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

I wonder if there's any chance that a gaggle of sitting and potential MPs could get together and create a single-use-only "national unity for the negotiation and management of Brexit" party? Go to the country on the basis of a one-term mandate, arguing that neither Labour nor the Tories have been able to attract sufficient support for a single, workable Brexit proposal. Given the significance of Brexit for the UK, they could ask the electorate to suspend party allegiances for the duration of one election cycle and return MPs who commit to working together for the good of the country.

It should be the "National Unity for the Management of Brexit" party, then they would be NUMB. :pac:

TIGgers not withstanding, I think the party system is too entrenched in the UK to see any significant realighnment of politics over Brexit, the existing parties will continue on in dysfunction rather than allowing new groupings to emerge.

Laois_Man · 12-03-2019 05:07PM

joe40 wrote: »

This might be a bit simplistic but what do people see as the likely outcomes here

1Passing WA tonight
2Not passing WA, no deal exit on the 29th
3Extension of article 50 for a few Months, go through this same nonsense again
4Second referendum
5GE
6Labour win go for customs union
7Tories win... I'm at a loss now

I give up trying to second guess this whole shambles

(first part of ) 2, followed by 5, followed by 7, followed by withdrawal with a customs border down the Irish sea

But everyone is guessing of course

Hurrache · 12-03-2019 05:14PM

Inquitus wrote: »

This could pass without the DUP if all the ERG vote for it.

I think there's some remainer Tories that will vote against it though because they don't want Brexit.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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