Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2 · 12-03-2019 03:03PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

And this hardline attitude makes a hard border all the more likely.
Sad really but there you go.
As I said it was pie in the sky that they would intervene to help Ireland in its hour of need. They are just going to sit on their hands and take the wages and expenses and do nothing.

I get it.

zzzzzz

Every few weeks this lame tripe gets trotted out.

Brexit is not a problem of SF's making. They are not going to go back on decades (arguably centuries) worth of abstentionist policy.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-03-2019 03:06PM

Jaysus, Theresa May does not look or sound well opening the debate.

CelticRambler · 12-03-2019 03:06PM

OFFS - with much dramatic arm waving, Sky business guy reporting sterling's "tumble" and showing a 24-hour chart.

Put up a 3-month chart, mister, so that people can see the big picture! :mad: Sterling has steadily risen from £1=1.10€ to £1=1.16€.

"Nothing has changed" in the last week (unless you're into swapping huge sums)

lawred2 · 12-03-2019 03:07PM

I wish May would resign, say 'over to you lads at the ERG' and just walk off

ToBeFrank123 · 12-03-2019 03:07PM

joe40 wrote: »

Sinn fein have been very clear in their position, their overarching aim is the establishment of a united Ireland.
Whether or not agree with this is up to yourself, but they are were elected in the north on a platform of non attendance at Westminster. That was their manifesto.
Now people think that should be torn up. Things like democratic mandate must mean nothing to some people.
Every single person that voted for a Sinn Fein MP knew they would not attend Westminster.
The way some people talk you would think that was a decision they made on a whim. I don't support Sinn Fein but I totally support their position in this.

Plus that last sentence that they were in a position to form a government... What are you talking about?

There isn't the slightest prospect of a United Ireland in the next 50 years, none. NI will suffer under a hard border but will in the long run cope. Likewise according to recent polls 19% of the population in the south oppose unity and would likely oppose it even more if NI is impoverished. So the long game isn't working for them.

A hard border on the other hand is very possible, and not in 50 years time.

Its all hypothetical anyways - I said that in my original post.

Wheeliebin30 · 12-03-2019 03:08PM

Can they not come to some agreement like the GFA where the people in the north vote in a few years to keep the backstop or not?

Leroy42 · 12-03-2019 03:09PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Do you understand what the documents are?

And please don't say nothing has changed because if you say that, you don't understand what they are.

I will ask you again to explain what the documents are. Here's your big chance to prove you understand what happened last night.

Regards the DUP, they have a long history of saying No when they don't understand something. They are certainly consistent in that regards.

So TBF123, are you seeing something that almost no one else is seeing in these documents?

The AG, the ERG legals boffiins, the DUP, EU, Irish government. Everyone else is simply wrong because they don't seem to have the deep understanding that you have.

I don't need to prove anything. You claimed that things had significantly changed. I am asking you to provide details of these significant changes as it appears that most don't agree.

Cryptopagan · 12-03-2019 03:09PM

lawred2 wrote: »

I wish May would resign, say 'over to you lads at the ERG' and just walk off

Doing a Cameron, as it's known.

ToBeFrank123 · 12-03-2019 03:10PM

lawred2 wrote: »

I wish May would resign, say 'over to you lads at the ERG' and just walk off

Agreed. They and other brexiteers sh*t their pants at the last leadership election. They don't want to be leaders only to shout from the sidelines. Pathetic.

lawred2 · 12-03-2019 03:11PM

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Doing a Cameron, as it's known.

At least she tried though.

robinph · 12-03-2019 03:11PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I wouldn't agree. Labour's stated position (and that of the bearded bloke) is to have a Customs Union plus other closer ties. The vast majority of Labour MPs and members (despite the bearded bloke who has now fallen into step) want a Norway style Brexit.

But they would still need to get 50% of the MP's to agree to it, would be closer than currently but is there enough who will go for it? Admittedly any new Labour seats would presumably be onside, but unless they got a massive majority and didn't need SNP or LibDem votes as well not sure you could be certain of a clear decision being possible still regardless of what colour tie the PM is wearing.

kilns · 12-03-2019 03:11PM

If this gets voted through it would not be a surprise as alot of these MPs are gutless, some who voted against are coming out saying they will vote yes due to significant changes, who are they kidding!!

ToBeFrank123 · 12-03-2019 03:15PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

So TBF123, are you seeing something that almost no one else is seeing in these documents?

The AG, the ERG legals boffiins, the DUP, EU, Irish government. Everyone else is simply wrong because they don't seem to have the deep understanding that you have.

I don't need to prove anything. You claimed that things had significantly changed. I am asking you to provide details of these significant changes as it appears that most don't agree.

I'm seeing legally codified mechanisms to leave, not a gentleman's agreement that its ok to leave which is not worth the paper its (not) written on.

It also forces everyone to act in good faith.

It also forces everyone to come up with an alternative to the backstop.

And it prevents the EU keeping the UK tied in permanently to the backstop.

As a last resort, a hard border between NI/UK mainland will come into force but only after all other mechanisms have been tried.

IT KICKS THE HARD BORDER YEARS DOWN THE ROAD.

This last sentence is important. It will give everyone time to breathe but most importantly it gives a chance to a future UK government who doesn't have the DUP breathing down their necks or is not dependent on them.

There's no perfect WA. Its either an imperfect WA or potentially hard Brexit.

Hurrache · 12-03-2019 03:16PM

Official No from the party that likes to say no. The clowns finish by saying the EU has been intransigent and says that all sides need to be reasonable.
https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1105470836042067968

Larbre34 · 12-03-2019 03:17PM

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Doing a Cameron, as it's known.

At least she tried until she ran out of road, used up all political capital and destroyed any legacy she had as a public servant. Cameron just ****ed off when things warmed up.

The earliest practical date for a UK GE is April 25th, (or even May day tee hee). An request to extend A50 and a Tory leadership contest will have to come very quickly now, assuming the required 2/3 of Parliament back the GE being called.

Right now, my money would be on Jezza Hunt to win the leadership.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-03-2019 03:18PM

Tory MPs openly saying to journalists now that if the deal is voted down tonight it will lead to a general election. "Dysfunctional parliament".

upupup · 12-03-2019 03:22PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Jaysus, Theresa May does not look or sound well opening the debate.

She looked bad last night too!...The stress of all this is clearly affecting her now.

Leroy42 · 12-03-2019 03:22PM

Didn't JCJ state at yesterday presser that any extension could only be until May elections?

And what is forgotten in all this talk of extensions is that it really doesn't matter if its May or June. The Parliament closes in mid April to prepare for new elections, so any new agreement, in terms of different from the current WA, would need to be ratified by the parliament and that requires the parliament to be sitting.

So Mid April is really where any extension actually runs to (on the basis that changes are required).

Professor Moriarty · 12-03-2019 03:24PM

robinph wrote: »

But they would still need to get 50% of the MP's to agree to it, would be closer than currently but is there enough who will go for it? Admittedly any new Labour seats would presumably be onside, but unless they got a massive majority and didn't need SNP or LibDem votes as well not sure you could be certain of a clear decision being possible still regardless of what colour tie the PM is wearing.

If the next GE is focused on Brexit only, and Labour campaigns on a second referendum and/or Norway style Brexit, then it will be a binary choice between Labour and a hardish Brexit Tory party. While a number of Leave Labour MPs will drift away to being independent, I think more soft Brexit Tories will have had enough of the ERG and will join the TIGs/become independent.

In that scenario, Labour could well increase their number of MPs. Also, until Brexit is resolved, the SNP, Lib Dems and Tigs would happily provide confidence and supply support which should give Labour a comfortable majority to work with the EU.

ancapailldorcha · 12-03-2019 03:26PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If the next GE is focused on Brexit only, and Labour campaigns on a second referendum and or Norway style Brexit, then it will be a binary choice between Labour and a hardish Brexit Tory party. While a number of Leave Labour MPs will drift away to being independent, I think more soft Brexit Tories will have had enough of the ERG and will join the TIGs/become independent.

In that scenario, Labour could well increase their number of MPs. Also, until Brexit is resolved, the SNP, Lib Dems and Tigs would happily provide confidence and supply support which should give Labour a comfortable majority to work with the EU.

That's what Labour should have done from the beginning. Instead, they dithered and dallied and now they're behind in the polls and have lost 9 MP's. Corbyn isn't going to change now. It's too late unless there's a second referendum and he picks the right side for once.

Professor Moriarty · 12-03-2019 03:30PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's what Labour should have done from the beginning. Instead, they dithered and dallied and now they're behind in the polls and have lost 9 MP's. Corbyn isn't going to change now. It's too late unless there's a second referendum and he picks the right side for once.

I think Corbyn is under enormous pressure. Even Momentum disagrees with him now. He doesn't wield anything like the power he used to and, increasingly, he's looking like a stranger in his own party. I think he will either slip away or represent what the overwhelming majority of Labour members want, which is a second referendum. He won't be given a choice.

blanch152 · 12-03-2019 03:31PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It's not their country

Northern Ireland isn't the country of the SF MPs? Seriously?

Northern Ireland needs them now more than ever in order to avoid a hard Brexit, yet they sit on their hands.

ancapailldorcha · 12-03-2019 03:31PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think Corbyn is under enormous pressure. Even Momentum disagrees with him now. He doesn't wield anything like the power he used to and, increasingly, he's looking like a stranger in his own party. I think he will either slip away or represent what the overwhelming majority of Labour members want, which is a second referendum. He won't be given a choice.

I can't imagine that Momentum have been quiet about this though. They can't just have switched to being pro-People's Vote. They must have had this stance for a while. I suspect the left-Eurosceptics like McDonnell and Milne are the ones who are really standing in the way.

CelticRambler · 12-03-2019 03:33PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I'm seeing legally codified mechanisms to leave, not a gentleman's agreement that its ok to leave which is not worth the paper its (not) written on.
Already in the WA

It also forces everyone to act in good faith.
You can't force someone to act in good faith, only force them to pretend that's what they're doing, so any such "guarantee" is not worth the paper it's written on

It also forces everyone to come up with an alternative to the backstop.
You can't force someone to come up with an alternative, only force them to pretend that what they're doing, so any such "guarantee" is not worth the paper it's written on

And it prevents the EU keeping the UK tied in permanently to the backstop.
Not if you believe that the EU is duplicitous, in which it can pretend it's being compliant (see above)

As a last resort, a hard border between NI/UK mainland will come into force but only after all other mechanisms have been tried.
Already provided for by the WA

IT KICKS THE HARD BORDER YEARS DOWN THE ROAD.
Already provided for by the WA

This last sentence is important. It will give everyone time to breathe but most importantly it gives a chance to a future UK government who doesn't have the DUP breathing down their necks or is not dependent on them.
Already provided for by the WA

In other words, nothing new. Nothing. Absolutely nothing. For once, I agree with the DUP on something!

robinph · 12-03-2019 03:33PM

Asking the question of what party MP do you want is also the wrong question to be asking if the answer you are looking for is to do with the deal/ no deal/ remain in the EU question. You should be voting for your MP based on who you think is the best for putting the interests of your local community forward for the next 5 years, not the single option of in or out of the EU.

Unless they say they are going to run another GE again 6 months afterwards and they have dealt with Brexit one way or another. A general election of MP's is the wrong way of deciding a referendum question just as much as asking a vague non-binding referendum question that you've not properly thought through the options and consequences of is.

PokeHerKing · 12-03-2019 03:34PM

blanch152 wrote:

Northern Ireland needs them now more than ever in order to avoid a hard Brexit, yet they sit on their hands.

What are you talking about? What could sinn fein do to stop a hard BREXIT?

4068ac1elhodqr · 12-03-2019 03:37PM

(€1.16) GBPvEUR is running at it's strongest value since May 2017,
yet the DUP (and others) still aren't keen on the latest plan.

ToBeFrank123 · 12-03-2019 03:39PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

In other words, nothing new. Nothing. Absolutely nothing. For once, I agree with the DUP on something!

There isn't going to be a better deal than this, unless you tear up the GFA which I have a feeling is the DUP's long game.

This is the deal. So everyone takes the deal and we kick a Hard Border several years down the road hopefully to a point where a future UK government is not dependent on the DUP, or they reject the WA and a hard border becomes far more likely.

Why have people trouble accepting the least worst option? There's no good options, just the least worst one. The worst one is Hard Brexit, the least worst is WA. Simple!

The Brexiteers will do everything in their power to prevent a second referendum as they know they probably will lose.

Professor Moriarty · 12-03-2019 03:40PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I can't imagine that Momentum have been quiet about this though. They can't just have switched to being pro-People's Vote. They must have had this stance for a while. I suspect the left-Eurosceptics like McDonnell and Milne are the ones who are really standing in the way.

Probably. But they are a small cabal and there is significant and growing pushback under Watson. If there isn't an election, 81% of Momentum members want a second referendum. If Momentum abandons Crobyn and McDonnell then they have no support whatsoever within the Labour party.

An Ciarraioch · 12-03-2019 03:41PM

http://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1105471645920182272

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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