Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Sierra Oscar · 12-03-2019 12:49AM

Jimjay wrote: »

Of course they will extend it. If this deal is not passed and then no deal is ruled out then the only option is to cancel brexit or run a second referendum. Junker said its this deal or no brexit

Indeed and the threat of a second referendum is what might spook the ERG into accepting this deal. It's a watered down Brexit or the very real possibility of no Brexit at all if its put to a second referendum.

GM228 · 12-03-2019 12:49AM

Headshot wrote: »

Personally I'd give the UK the only option of 2 year extension. It will give businesses some kind of assurances and EU states more time to prepare for no brexit

EU: We will only give you two years extension, no more, no less. Oh and don't forget to run the salt on wounds exercise (aka the European elections).

PropJoe10 · 12-03-2019 12:50AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This thread has been hectic. Did May actually achieve anything? The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

That'll all have changed tomorrow once they've had a chance to digest the fact that she's achieved feck all. She looked absolutely defeated in that press conference earlier.

Imreoir2 · 12-03-2019 12:50AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This thread has been hectic. Did May actually achieve anything? The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

Yes and no, according to the Unilateral Declaration the UK does actually now have the right to unilaterally walk away from the backstop if the talks break down and no future agreement is possible.

In theory the UK got what they want, but in reality what they wanted is largely meaningless. They don't have cart blanche to walk away, it is conditioned on talks breaking down which means that the EU can prevent the UK from walking away away from the backstop simply by being available to engage in talks about a future relationship.

Instead of a backstop applying unless and untill an agreement is reached, the backstop applies unless and untill the EU decides to walk away from talks with the UK on the future relationship. In practice the backstop is as solid as ever.

Itssoeasy · 12-03-2019 12:52AM

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

On Newsnight JRM said his position on the "improved deal" would be guided by Nigel Dodds!!

That's like a turkey saying they trust Bernard Mathews to do right by them.

Christy42 · 12-03-2019 12:54AM

PropJoe10 wrote: »

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This thread has been hectic. Did May actually achieve anything? The British media is awash with reports of "legally binding changes".

That'll all have changed tomorrow once they've had a chance to digest the fact that she's achieved feck all. She looked absolutely defeated in that press conference earlier.

It will suit them to pretend. Vote through her deal and claim victory over the huns. Have a photo op in front of a few spitfires and claim everything is better when there are less jobs in the country (but possibly not a complete crash so you can get away with the lies).

Still we can avoid a head border and the UK can't decide to stick one up whenever it wants as the EU can always have someone around " available for negotiations ". A good day for Ireland if it gets through.

diggerdigger · 12-03-2019 12:55AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Exactly. As was said in the HoC, he'll be marking his own homework tomorrow.

I think (hope) tomorrow is a day that some of the yahoo's can take some shaky, seeking step back from their stupid grandstanding.

Kermit.de.frog · 12-03-2019 12:55AM

Fascinating theatrics this evening.

I suspect she has done just enough to get this passed tomorrow.

Goodnight.

Professor Moriarty · 12-03-2019 12:57AM

diggerdigger wrote: »

I think (hope) tomorrow is a day that some of the yahoo's can take some shaky, seeking step back from their stupid grandstanding.

Some might, but it's still very likely that she'll be defeated anyway.

10000maniacs · 12-03-2019 12:58AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I think it will pass just about.

Listening to Mogg earlier and he seemed sanguine enough. Also there is a real sense of fatigue now working it's healthy process from all the interviews I have seen.

It won't be 220 this time, but I'm afraid it will be rejected again by a substantial amount. You have to realise that the issues around the backstop were just a convenient excuse for opposition to the deal.

Laois_Man · 12-03-2019 01:01AM

"The Father of Brexit" (Fox News' description) has had his say:

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1105239833348399106

munsterlegend · 12-03-2019 01:06AM

I think the DUP are beginning to realise they have pushed this as far as they could. I can’t see how they would accept this but theirs statements suggests possible support. The message is getting through from the north electorate I think.

joe40 · 12-03-2019 01:06AM

Whatever happens tomorrow will be an interesting day.
Just a wee word of thanks to the many knowledgeable contributors on this thread.
It is a great place for a good understanding of the many twists and turns in this cluster**** that is Brexit.

FrancieBrady · 12-03-2019 01:09AM

munsterlegend wrote: »

I think the DUP are beginning to realise they have pushed this as far as they could. I can’t see how they would accept this but theirs statements suggests possible support. The message is getting through from the north electorate I think.

It will have to be a complete climbdown though. The backstop remains in it's entirety.

backspin. · 12-03-2019 01:10AM

Over the course of its history the DUP has defaulted to NO when the pressure comes on. I'm expecting nothing different here.

Cosmo Kramer · 12-03-2019 01:13AM

munsterlegend wrote: »

I think the DUP are beginning to realise they have pushed this as far as they could. I can’t see how they would accept this but theirs statements suggests possible support. The message is getting through from the north electorate I think.

If they cave now the next British government, that doesn't rely on them for votes, will solve the border problem by putting it in the Irish Sea at the first possible opportunity. Surely, if they have any small amount of common sense, they can see that.

munsterlegend · 12-03-2019 01:14AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It will have to be a complete climbdown though. The backstop remains in it's entirety.

Yeah but they know a no deal would be catastrophic. I was expecting outright rejection but far from it. The fact JRM said he will be guided by DUP really puts the squeeze on too. They have been backtracking for the last couple of weeks from no backstop to temporary backstop. I think they might have expected a deal to go over their heads with labour support in the national interest but now they are snookered I think.

Jim2007 · 12-03-2019 01:14AM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

... which means that the EU can prevent the UK from walking away away from the backstop simply by being available to engage in talks about a future relationship.

A job for some junior, just listen to them, say no and round and round the loop goes.

Sierra Oscar · 12-03-2019 01:18AM

munsterlegend wrote: »

Yeah but they know a no deal would be catastrophic. I was expecting outright rejection but far from it. The fact JRM said he will be guided by DUP really puts the squeeze on too. They have been backtracking for the last couple of weeks from no backstop to temporary backstop. I think they might have expected a deal to go over their heads with labour support in the national interest but now they are snookered I think.

I reckon you're fairly spot on regarding the DUP thinking a deal would have passed with Labour backing.

At the end of the day the DUP know that a hard Brexit will be a disaster for Northern Ireland which could lead to the fragmentation of the UK and the bringing about of a United Ireland in the not too distant future. I don't think they ever thought it would get this down to the wire.

Laois_Man · 12-03-2019 01:19AM

SimonTemplar wrote: »

If the deal fails tomorrow, I can't see how May can possibility continue to be PM.

But there's no mechanism to take her down - not until December!

Cosmo Kramer · 12-03-2019 01:20AM

A DUP Spokesperson wrote:

"We will measure this latest text against the Brady amendment, and the commitments made by the Prime Minister on 29 January.”

It won't stack up well on those measurements...

Cosmo Kramer · 12-03-2019 01:22AM

Laois_Man wrote: »

But there's no mechanism to take her down - not until December!

In theory, no. However, in practice once enough of her MPs turn on her she'll be gone within hours.

joe40 · 12-03-2019 01:24AM

What about labour leave supporters, is there any chance they will support the WA agreement tomorrow in an effort to stop extension and possible new vote.
I wonder will leave supporters be spooked about letting brexit slip away on them if tomorrow vote is lost

Hurrache · 12-03-2019 01:24AM

Laois_Man wrote: »

But there's no mechanism to take her down - not until December!

That's an internal Tory thing, the opposition can still go for a no confidence vote.

Charles Babbage · 12-03-2019 01:40AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I reckon you're fairly spot on regarding the DUP thinking a deal would have passed with Labour backing.

At the end of the day the DUP know that a hard Brexit will be a disaster for Northern Ireland which could lead to the fragmentation of the UK and the bringing about of a United Ireland in the not too distant future. I don't think they ever thought it would get this down to the wire.

The DUP assumed that the referendum would not pass and then that the British would make a pragmatic deal. They are accustomed to beating the Lambeg drum and having the British hold them back, not so in this case.

Laois_Man · 12-03-2019 01:43AM

Hurrache wrote: »

That's an internal Tory thing, the opposition can still go for a no confidence vote.

They already did - and they lost
No reason to think it would be any different now

Anteayer · 12-03-2019 02:10AM

I've given up even trying to predict what's going to happen tomorrow. There are just too many unknowns and people sleeping on it who may wake up seething and vote against it.

It will be an interesting day - do we have any idea of roughly what time they're planning to have the vote?

tuxy · 12-03-2019 02:21AM

Anteayer wrote: »

It will be an interesting day - do we have any idea of roughly what time they're planning to have the vote?

They will probably spend the afternoon debating it and then have the vote around 7pm.

CelticRambler · 12-03-2019 02:40AM

Much ado about nothing, in the end, methinks. I will hazard a prediction:
ERG-hard core: unilateral declaration does nothing other than kick a no-deal Brexit can two years down the road => vote no
ERG-lite/Tory fence-sitters: some Brexit is better than no Brexit => vote yes and hope to harden things during the trade negotiations, shafting the DUP if necessary
Tory Remainers: time is running out => vote yes, hoping to turn the WA T&Cs into a BRINO-Brexit
Labour: WA v3 is exactly the same as WA v1, feck the Tories => vote no, hoping yet another TM defeat will trigger a GE.
DUP: caught between a very uncomfortable rock and an increasingly hard place, beginning to realise they're going to be shafted one way or another, can't quite decide whether to vote yes with a truly British stiff upper lip or default to the traditional Ulster Says No! 50-50 split if they're not all whipped to vote in the same way.
SNP/PC/LibDems ... probably all or mostly no to give TM a good kicking while she's down, hoping she won't get up this time.
TIG ... No change to the WA, unilateral declaration is meaningless, TM no longer fit for purpose => vote no.

Overall, comprehensively defeated but with a smaller margin than last time.

fash · 12-03-2019 06:45AM

Enzokk wrote: »

I have a couple of tweets here that interprets what has happened;

https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1105241945138438144

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1105243673485287425

It seems they think nothing has changed at all tonight.

Then we have this from the unilateral declaration.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1105243210388029441

So basically if the UK feels that during the negotiations there is no way out they can just walk away. But they will still have their obligations to the GFA to think about and they will not have a free trade agreement with the EU at that stage. So the chances of this happening without blowing the economy up at that stage, none.

I assume they think they would wait until they have all the other FTAs in place (if possible I'd course) -and then "no deal" on the EU.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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