The early wildcard v the dgw wildcard

patmac · 22-04-2016 10:36am

I would imagine this swung heavily in the favour of the late wildcarders with the DGW, the new chips mean that any serious player will be keeping them to late in the season after all the huge scores this week.

km79 · 22-04-2016 10:38am

patmac wrote: »

I would imagine this swung heavily in the favour of the late wildcarders with the DGW, the new chips mean that any serious player will be keeping them to late in the season after all the huge scores this week.

wildcarded in January
score this week 176(-8)
one transfer needed to field 11 this week due to smith injury
I'll be playing it similar time next year if I'm chasing again

Iused2likebusts · 22-04-2016 10:59am

I'll hopefully update it later

Iused2likebusts · 22-04-2016 11:42pm

Latest update
Average score for Dgw wildcarders 921 Early wildcarders 912.
Before this gw dgw wildcarders had an average of 2 pts more than early wildcarders. This week dgw wildcarders got on average 7 pts more than early wildcarders

Total scores to date
1 FHFC 980 Late
2 Lemlin 957 Late
3 Mike ehrmantraut 946 early
4 klopparama 945 late
5 Busts 944 early
6 tilted brain 929 late
7 csf 914 early
8 km79 914 early
9 fingers 903 early
10 kilburn 896 late
11 spock 894 early
12 iroced 893 late
13 donal 865 early
14 greedygoblin 847 late

All late wildcarders BB this week. 4 early wildcarders TC and 3 BB.

Iused2likebusts · 26-04-2016 12:01pm

Latest update
Average score for early wildcarders 955 for dgw wildcarders 954
In gw 35 early wildcarders got an average score of 43 after hits, dgw wildcarders got an average score of 33 after hits.

Things have gone pretty much as I expected the past 2 gws. Gw 34 the dgw wildcarders were better set up to score well due to number of dgw players. Gw 35 the non wildcarders would be better set up due to having more available players and in most cases already having the leicester and spurs players that would be popular this week. Id expect wildcarders to outscore early wildcarders in 37 due to having slightly more dgw players.

Ill update this after gw 37 with number of players played between gw33 and gw 37 for each side.
Pretty remarkable that an average of 1 pt seperates both sides after 15 gws of this. As far as I recall the average gap has never been bigger than 16 pts between both sides and most times the gap has been in single digits.

23-05-2016 10:37am

Was there a clear difference between early and late wild cards ?

Iused2likebusts · 23-05-2016 10:49am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Was there a clear difference between early and late wild cards ?

Totally forgot about this will do the updated one before the end of the week. There has been little or nothing in it all season.

Iused2likebusts · 29-05-2016 10:03pm

So the average scores from gw 20 when half of us wildcarded to the end of the season is
Early wildcarders 1127
DGW wildcarders 1114

1 Klopparama 1209 DGW W
2 FHFC 1206 DGW W
3 Busts 1156 Early W
4 KM79 1145 Early W
5 Mike Ehrmantrau 1144 Early W
6 Lemlin 1143 DGW W
7 CSF 1128 Early W
8 Fingers 1126 Early W
9 Spock 1124 Early W
10 Tilted Brain 1091 DGW W
11 Iroced 1075 DGW W
12 Donal 1071 Early W
13 Kilburn 1058 DGW W
14 Greedygoblin 1021 DGW W

its been neck and neck everytime Ive checked the scores with one side only ever a few pts ahead of the other. Surprisingly the late wildcarders were 2 pts ahead before the DGW 34 and finished 13 pts behind. A 15 pt swing in favour of the late wildcarders.
Its hard to tell how much to take from these results. Id be interested to hear peoples thoughts.
My take on things is that it doesnt matter when you play your wildcard or your BB. The TC has to be played in a DGW.
What all of us need to consider is not the gains you are making on the casuals . Both early and late wildcarders will clean up against these when it comes to dgws. Its the gains you are making against lads that are in the know. The standard wildcard and dgw BB always needed to consider when other lads used their wildcard and used their BB.
What Ive learned from it is use your wildcard when you need it. Anything over an 8 pt hit wildcard. In an ideal world you can keep your wildcard to in and around the dgw. The BB I will not be keeping for the DGWs. Its too late in the season. Meaningless games, big domestic and european games resulting in rotation. Your also likely to take out key players for a hopeful short term boost.
The mistakes I made due to my early wildcard was not realising until gw 32 that id be better off playing my TC in gw 34 rather than BB. This resulted in me making transfers between gw 28 and 32 that focused on getting dgw players in and not getting in form players with good fixtures like siggy and arnie. For next year I think its best to play your TC in the DGW that has the better fixtures at the expense of a BB if need be. For a DGW 9 or so strong dgw players and a TC is more than enough IMO .

FHFC · 01-06-2016 12:24pm

Just catching up on this, few thoughts.

Not sure how much the exercise tells. A lot of the relative scoring between the two groups are probably down to good old fashioned picking of the right players and captains. The top 2 scorers in the list by a margin of 50 points odd were both DGW wildcarders whose DGW plan came off. Possibly that suggests that if you can keep the WC for that strategy there is a higher ceiling if you get it right and get a bit of luck.

In relation to my own experience and lessons learned, I largely agree with Busts.

One thing to note though, and it has been pointed out here before, is in relation to the risks from rotation etc that beset a lot of DGW BB plans, and that is that this was a fairly unusual DGW set up from the moment Spurs lost to Crystal Palace in the cup. With Leicester also out of the Cup it meant that the 2 title chasers were not involved in DGWs. This not only meant that there were harder calls to make about getting rid of players from those teams for DGWs, but also that it fell in the lap of those who don't plan around blanks in that they had 5 or 6 players for BlankGW30 that would otherwise have decimated their teams for that week and maybe seen them short-sightedly sell some of those key Spurs/Leicester players who haunted many of us in GW34.

If the DGW teams were still among the title/European spot challengers then it would have been a whole different ball game so hard to make a final conclusion from only this season as a sample size.

My own DGW BB went exceptionally well, and my final quarter was amazing having kept my chips and wildcard for those DGWs, so it will be tempting for me to try that again next year. However I agree that it would cost you more in the long term to hold onto the wildcard grimly when your team was in a mess. I set myself up for keeping the WC by taking a -8 around Boxing day and it paid off by putting my team in good shape for Jan and Feb making it a no brainer to keep the wildcard for some form of DGW BB or TC plan.

Also regarding Busts point of costing points by having to make all transfers from GW28 geared towards the DGW plan, this has to go down as an advantage of the late WC as you can play the short term game without ignoring those players mentioned.

Another point is that hits around DGWs especially should not be feared. I took plenty of hits even after my late WC and they paid off every time.

So overall, for next year, I think, once the potential for DGWs (or not) is apparent from the fixture schedule, it's worth having an intention to keep the wildcard and BB late, but not being rigidly stuck to that. If there are unlikely to be two decent DGWs then the option of keeping BB is less attractive, cause as Busts said TC is the only one it makes no sense (statistically/probability wise) to play in a Single GW.

And if you do make it to having the WC for the DGW season there are definitely lesson to be learned from this year regarding tearing up a squad of form players for DGW guys who would otherwise clearly not be touched with a barge pole on the basis of form (I'm looking at you Everton). Although hopefully, as per my first point the choices might not be so hard depending on the identity of the DGW teams.

iroced · 01-06-2016 1:18pm

Great work Busts for keeping track of this.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure there's much to take from it. Mainly because of this very weird season.

1. Early WCers got a huge boost from cheap defenders immediately returning monster scores (15 to 20 pointers).

2. Spurs & Leicester got knocked out of DGWs/blanks fixtures.

3. Unusual high amount of cup games replays.

4. City & Liverpool (2 key DGW teams) progressed further than expected in Europe.

5. 3 & 4 led to an unexpectedly crazy high amount of rotation for the key period (GWs 33 to 37), I mean even keepers got rotated, a premiere for me in 6 years playing the game.

6. Key popular TC blanked like never before (GW33 Lukaku, GW37 Carroll) making the DGW34 TCers the only winners of the game.

7. Fortune/misfortune played a never seen before part in the game this season ; I base my analysis on 6 seasons playing the game, I'd even dare say that it was worse this season than 6 years ago when snow completely messed up the Christmas fixtures and e.g. many of us got a complete random sub captain from a GW where only 3 or 4 games got played.
One example to summarise this season: Darmian DGW34 (don't forget to consider many got him in in a GW32/33 WC for a combined negative score in 33 and dropped to the bench afterwards such that many of the same many got him out as part of a -4 in 34 for him to get a 17 pointer just from 1 game). :rolleyes:.

So, all in all, the differences in your results, Busts, are more down to how any each of us approached the game (Which transfers we made? When? How many hits we took? Which ones? Which captains we chose?) rather than how we played the chips (bar who and when we TCed?) and this early vs late WC made absolutely no differences. To simplify it to a maximum, I'd say that the early huge boost early WCers got from cheap defenders over-overperforming compensated the points you lost from preparing your team for the DGWs/blanks and the one you potentially missed out in these very DGWs/blanks.

We'll see how it goes next season but I really dislike this new chips inclusion to the game. To me they only bring more luck and randomism to the game. And I don't like that.

Green&Red · 07-03-2019 9:48am

How are the early WCers finding it this year?
I WC’d in 23 as my team was a shambles, had a few meh weeks mainly due to Aguero going mad but since then it’s taken off mainly due to my strategy around 31/33.
I’d expect the late WC’ers to make up ground in 34/35 where I’ve to take hits but overall I’m happy with my decision

So far

Green&Red · 07-03-2019 9:49am

Also interesting to see the giving out about spurs and Leicester being out of the cup, this year you could argue about the late reorganisation of games. I guess there’s always going to be something to throw things off

km79 · 07-03-2019 10:12am

Green&Red wrote: »

How are the early WCers finding it this year?
I WC’d in 23 as my team was a shambles, had a few meh weeks mainly due to Aguero going mad but since then it’s taken off mainly due to my strategy around 31/33.
I’d expect the late WC’ers to make up ground in 34/35 where I’ve to take hits but overall I’m happy with my decision

So far

I’ve gone from 50 behind in main league to 10 clear
I’ve moved up to 18k in OR
I’m hapoy to have used it and it has worked well so far

alchemist33 · 09-03-2019 11:41am

I WCed before the last double and brought in Aguero, Laporte and Sane, among others, and partially set ip for the blanks and doubles. 2/3 City players worked a treat - between that week and the next I moved from 120k stagnation to 50k. I might suffer later but I won't regret WCing early.

CSF · 09-03-2019 12:36pm

Green&Red wrote: »

How are the early WCers finding it this year?
I WC’d in 23 as my team was a shambles, had a few meh weeks mainly due to Aguero going mad but since then it’s taken off mainly due to my strategy around 31/33.
I’d expect the late WC’ers to make up ground in 34/35 where I’ve to take hits but overall I’m happy with my decision

So far

It’s going well for me so far, I’ve risen to approx 3k from approx 12k after wildcarding in GW23.

It’s a success until people start bridging that back in when I’m wildcard and bench boostless later.

Chesty08 · 10-03-2019 11:02pm

Green&Red wrote: »

How are the early WCers finding it this year?
I WC’d in 23 as my team was a shambles, had a few meh weeks mainly due to Aguero going mad but since then it’s taken off mainly due to my strategy around 31/33.
I’d expect the late WC’ers to make up ground in 34/35 where I’ve to take hits but overall I’m happy with my decision

So far

Early Wildcarder here.

I WC'd going into GW23 and have not used any other chips in the 8 GW's.

I have risen from OR 50k to OR 6k. Looking at the leaderboards if I consolidated and stayed around that position I would be 70 points behind

I appreciate there were other decisions along the way (DGW25) which helped along the way but I feel the WC has been the main reason in here as I didn't have Aguero c in the DGW & I didn't triple captain.

My team was in a mess and it needed work.

However, I know the real story will be told in the coming weeks when after GW33, alot of players will be WC with the remainder of season in mind & the DGW.

I still have all other chips so will be interesting to see

The early wildcard v the dgw wildcard

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