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The early wildcard v the dgw wildcard

  • 05-01-2016 11:03pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    Have started this thread to see how this pans out to give us something to help us when deciding on wildcarding next year. The new chips and the change in the wildcard rules has resulted in the general feeling being that you should wildcard before the dgws. Id agree with that in once your happy with your team and not taking lots of hits to sort things out. However I feel if your not happy with your team you can do yourself more damage by waiting till then.
    Ive a feeling when the dgws come we will have a lot of comments about the success of being able to use your wildcard just before them. As statistically you should get a higher score by being able to fit in more dgw players and also the fact that your on wildcard and can pick whoever you want.
    I think its wrong to judge the success of it on a couple of weeks that are stacked in favour of the dgw wildcarder.
    You have to factor in did the early wildcarders get an advantage that late wildcarders missed out on. Such as an initial points boost, team value gain.Lack of points hits.

    The main thing Im interested in is the number of extra players late wildcarders get over early wildcarders in the dgws and the blank gws.

    While we can compare points its in the lap of the gods who delivers on any given week. Even last week id one of my strongest teams out this season 9 players at home all with good fixtures. I got 29 points and a 3 mill plus gw rank.

    Im looking at comparing team value, points, point hits from now till season end and number of players played in gw 30,34,35,37. Ill update this every 2 gws for the next 6 gws and then from gw 30 on.

    Wildcarders - busts, csf, donal, spock,fingers,km79, mike ehrmantrau
    Average points gw 20 1,086 average team value 106.4

    Dgw wildcarders lemlin,iroced,fhfc,greedygoblin,tilted brain, kilburn, klopparama
    Average points gw 20 1,066 average team value 107.4

    Im waiting on klopparamas team id so will update the above when I get it.
    I wasnt expecting the wildcarders to have a current higher points average and the non wildcarders have a million extra team value.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    Have started this thread to see how this pans out to give us something to help us when deciding on wildcarding next year. The new chips and the change in the wildcard rules has resulted in the general feeling being that you should wildcard before the dgws. Id agree with that in once your happy with your team and not taking lots of hits to sort things out. However I feel if your not happy with your team you can do yourself more damage by waiting till then.
    Ive a feeling when the dgws come we will have a lot of comments about the success of being able to use your wildcard just before them. As statistically you should get a higher score by being able to fit in more dgw players and also the fact that your on wildcard and can pick whoever you want.
    I think its wrong to judge the success of it on a couple of weeks that are stacked in favour of the dgw wildcarder.
    You have to factor in did the early wildcarders get an advantage that late wildcarders missed out on. Such as an initial points boost, team value gain.Lack of points hits.

    The main thing Im interested in is the number of extra players late wildcarders get over early wildcarders in the dgws and the blank gws.

    While we can compare points its in the lap of the gods who delivers on any given week. Even last week id one of my strongest teams out this season 9 players at home all with good fixtures. I got 29 points and a 3 mill plus gw rank.

    Im looking at comparing team value, points, point hits from now till season end and number of players played in gw 30,34,35,37. Ill update this every 2 gws for the next 6 gws and then from gw 30 on.

    Wildcarders - busts, csf, donal, spock,fingers,km79, mike ehrmantrau
    Average points gw 20 1,086 average team value 106.4

    Dgw wildcarders lemlin,iroced,fhfc,greedygoblin,tilted brain, kilburn, klopparama
    Average points gw 20 1,066 average team value 107.4

    Im waiting on klopparamas team id so will update the above when I get it.
    I wasnt expecting the wildcarders to have a current higher points average and the non wildcarders have a million extra team value.

    This needs a spreadsheet!

    And maybe some graphs. ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,413 ✭✭✭✭ extra gravy


    FHFC wrote: »
    This needs a spreadsheet!

    And maybe some graphs. ;)

    Ha you're in your element now :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    FHFC wrote: »
    This needs a spreadsheet!

    And maybe some graphs. ;)
    Ye and when things get a bit more complicated you can be the man to put it together:p


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 9,532 Mod ✭✭✭✭ F1ngers


    FHFC wrote: »
    This needs a spreadsheet!

    And maybe some graphs. ;)

    And pie charts, everybody likes pie.
    Mmm, pie.


  • Moderators, Arts Moderators, Music Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 12,596 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Pappa Dolla


    Looks great! Been wrecking my head this one too. I'm gonna ply bench boost + triple captain on the first one and aim for all out attack on the other. I think these dgw will cause a lot of movement in the tables.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    Looks great! Been wrecking my head this one too. I'm gonna ply bench boost + triple captain on the first one and aim for all out attack on the other. I think these dgw will cause a lot of movement in the tables.
    you can only play one chip at a time. There should be 3 dgws so your sorted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,626 ✭✭✭ greedygoblin


    This will be very interesting to see how it works out. Well done busts for taking the time to do it.

    As you say tv, average points of the two groups is the striking thing starting off. For those of us with a lower than we'd like overall rank, I wonder will this affect how we play the game over the rest of the season? Like riskier captain choices, dodgy one week punts, more points hits etc. Could end up being quite a bit of variation between the two camps.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,972 ✭✭✭✭ SteelyDanJalapeno


    I am pulling the dgw avg down something wicked :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,300 ✭✭✭ Mike Ehrmantraut


    Well done busts. Looking forward to see how this pans out.
    Hadn't planned on using the wildcard so early, but so far behind in private leagues, needed to do something to hopefully drag myself back into the running.
    And, yeah, pie charts, we need some pie charts around here


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,300 ✭✭✭ Mike Ehrmantraut


    I am pulling the dgw avg down something wicked :)

    Lol, I'm probably doing the same for the wildcarders


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,274 ✭✭✭✭ Mr.Prodston


    "FSA Investigates: Special Wildcard Unit" is brought to you by Prodston Productions.

    Each week we'll get an update from lead researcher Iused2likebusts on our progress culminating with what we hope will be a significant moment in DGW history.

    Our statistical team will crunch the numbers using the latest technology provided by Microsoft Office 2003. FHFC will be at the helm while we'll have F1ngers in the pie....chart.

    In a more personal slot there'll be a "Behind the Wildcard" where we'll learn about our participants previous WC escapades.

    Of course everyone is looking forward to "WC vs DGW" where each week a member from both sides faces off before one can be crowned weekly champion. Expect fireworks here when an early WC falters at the hands of team riddled with injuries sees 3rd sub Andrew Surman break hearts with a late assist.

    Ultimately we'll go on a journey together in these unprecedented times where what we previously knew to be true could be shattered.

    All this exclusive to the FSA Network. I'll be your host Mr.P as we take these steps together towards our destiny, won't you join me live from Prodston Towers each week. However for now may all your luck be inconsequential, and remember:

    If it ain't PVA the defence won't stick!


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    Ye and when things get a bit more complicated you can be the man to put it together:p

    I never need much of an excuse to lash together a nice spreadsheet. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,797 ✭✭✭✭ PARlance


    So how are the WC'ers getting on? It would be interesting to see pre and post WC teams and if there are many changes or was it just a few tweaks.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    PARlance wrote: »
    So how are the WC'ers getting on? It would be interesting to see pre and post WC teams and if there are many changes or was it just a few tweaks.

    Will be interesting to see the 'early wildcard template' all right.

    Of draft teams I've seen I'm heartened to see a lot that are very similar to my current side. KdB being the big exception that I don't have.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,300 ✭✭✭ Mike Ehrmantraut


    Transfers:
    De Gea - Courtois
    McCarthy - Elliot
    Bellerin - Cresswell
    Kolarov - Sagna
    Arnautivic - Payet

    Wildcard team

    Courtois Elliot
    Alderweirld Sagna Cresswell Ward Simpson
    Kdb Ozil Payet Mahrez Alli
    Aguero Lukaku Kane

    Had expected to make another change (Harry Kane) but giving Kane the next 2 gw's.

    Was very tempted to go with a front 8 of
    Kdb Yaya Sanchez Ozil Alli
    Aguero Lukaku Ighalo.
    But thought it was overkill on city attacking players and would have left me with zero in the bank


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,227 ✭✭✭✭ manual_man


    PARlance wrote: »
    So how are the WC'ers getting on? It would be interesting to see pre and post WC teams and if there are many changes or was it just a few tweaks.

    7 changes myself, so quite a difference. Aguero, Payet, Alli, Alder all in my squad now. And other transfers freed up some funds so it shouldn't be too hard to get Sanchez in should I wish to. But honestly it's simply about salvaging my train wreck of a season from here on in. Aguero and Payet will be differentials, at least in the short term anyway, so hopefully they can do some damage. Aguero's man of the match display in the cup gives me hope he could be close to back to his best. Captaincy going straight on him


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,797 ✭✭✭✭ PARlance


    FHFC wrote: »
    Will be interesting to see the 'early wildcard template' all right.

    Of draft teams I've seen I'm heartened to see a lot that are very similar to my current side. KdB being the big exception that I don't have.

    Despite being well adrift, I'm in the same boat. Aguero and Payet are in and while I could do with a little trim at the back, I just couldn't see a WC in it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,267 ✭✭✭✭ FHFC


    PARlance wrote: »
    Despite being well adrift, I'm in the same boat. Aguero and Payet are in and while I could do with a little trim at the back, I just couldn't see a WC in it.

    I took a -8 on Boxing day to set myself up. I was early to the drop Vardy wagon and to have an Aguero, Kane, Lukaku front line. Thankfully the hit seems ti have pointed me in the right direction.

    I'll be able to do Arnie to KdB next week. But may well get Sanchez instead.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    PARlance wrote: »
    So how are the WC'ers getting on? It would be interesting to see pre and post WC teams and if there are many changes or was it just a few tweaks.

    I'm on 10 changes with my current team thats yet to be finalised. My whole back 7 have been changed and 3 of my front 8. This is why I wildcarded mainly as I wanted to go much cheaper at the back.


  • Registered Users Posts: 701 ✭✭✭ loadwire


    Cheers for doing this, will be interested to see how it pans out.

    Obviously it's not as black and white as early Jan v DGW - a lot of players will be somewhere in between the two extremes. For example, those badly in need of a rejig now might prefer to take one or two hits and limp until end of Jan window at least (think I'd bite the bullet myself).

    Others won't want to leave it as late as GW33/34. I'm in this camp at the moment. No guarantee of a high score that week so I'd prefer to get 8-10 gameweeks 'value' out of my 2nd wildcard rather than putting all my eggs in that basket. Also, barring replays I think we'll know what teams will be having a DGW in week 34 by around week 28 so you could still roughly gear your squad towards it if you used it at that point. I have that week vaguely earmarked for mine, though at the end of the day I suppose it's that gut feeling of when your team needs fixing.

    I much prefer the new w/c system - makes the timing of them much more interesting tactically.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 822 ✭✭✭ SkySter


    loadwire wrote: »
    Cheers for doing this, will be interested to see how it pans out.

    Obviously it's not as black and white as early Jan v DGW - a lot of players will be somewhere in between the two extremes. For example, those badly in need of a rejig now might prefer to take one or two hits and limp until end of Jan window at least (think I'd bite the bullet myself).

    Others won't want to leave it as late as GW33/34. I'm in this camp at the moment. No guarantee of a high score that week so I'd prefer to get 8-10 gameweeks 'value' out of my 2nd wildcard rather than putting all my eggs in that basket. Also, barring replays I think we'll know what teams will be having a DGW in week 34 by around week 28 so you could still roughly gear your squad towards it if you used it at that point. I have that week vaguely earmarked for mine, though at the end of the day I suppose it's that gut feeling of when your team needs fixing.

    I much prefer the new w/c system - makes the timing of them much more interesting tactically.

    Agree with this. A lot will depend for me on where I am in my league. My ideal scenario is to play the WC on the last DGW of the season to get me into a significant lead and not have to worry about remaining transfers too much. If I play it too early I've a real fear that the advantage of the short term lead playing TC or Bench boost will be lost if I have to unwind the transfers over the subsequent game weeks. In past years I've screwed up good solid teams built up over several game weeks by making too many changes on the WC. This one needs very careful consideration.


  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 9,532 Mod ✭✭✭✭ F1ngers


    From this:
    [URL="[url=https://flic.kr/p/C88i2V][img]https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1682/23709482203_c50601a552_z.jpg[/img][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/C88i2V]ScreenHunter_252 Jan. 12 14.25[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/]F1ngers2[/url]"][/url]23709482203_c50601a552_z.jpg

    To this:
    [URL="[url=https://flic.kr/p/D3cNU7][img]https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1525/24310137406_ac8a3fc518_b.jpg[/img][/url][url=https://flic.kr/p/D3cNU7]ScreenHunter_253 Jan. 12 14.27[/url] by [url=https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/]F1ngers2[/url], on Flickr"][/url]24310137406_ac8a3fc518_b.jpg

    I kept four players, Aguero, Kane, Arnautovic and Simpson.

    Plan in next 2/3 weeks is that Arnautovic will make way for Sanchez.
    Will also have to sell Costa and bring back Lukaku to fund it.

    For good or bad, this is what I've settled on...


  • Registered Users Posts: 369 ✭✭ Jaggo


    About Wolls, his next five game weeks are:
    13 Jan 19:45 Gameweek 21 Norwich (H)
    17 Jan 16:15 Gameweek 22 Arsenal (H)
    23 Jan 15:00 Gameweek 23 Leicester (A)
    02 Feb 20:00 Gameweek 24 Man Utd (A)
    06 Feb 15:00 Gameweek 25 Everton (H)

    Maybe someone better short term?


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    After 1 gw for the 7 players
    Non wildcarders got 202 pts and there TV went up .4
    Wildcarders got 201 pts and there TV went down .2
    Between the 14 of us the lowest score was 22 busts:( and the highest score was fhfc 34. The non wildcarders took 4 hits between the 7 of them which has been deducted from their score.
    Im not sure how valuable the TV data will be RV would be more relevant. Id imagine the wildcarders TV dropped due to having players in in the short term to try and make the elusive .2 profit.
    I think the wildcarders are unfortunate the way the week panned out with nobody bar payet delivering from an attacking sense and only city keeping a CS of the teams a wildcarder would have played. Usually you would expect and get a short term bounce from a wildcard. There are some crazy weeks like the gw we just had throughout the season and none of us can predict when that will happen.
    My team if I hadnt wildcarded would have got me 10 extra points and it was much weaker on paper than the one I ended up having with my wildcard.


  • Registered Users Posts: 47,773 ✭✭✭✭ km79


    After watching MOTD and with city Chelsea and Spurs at home again I think the bounce will come Saturday ;) when people least expect it :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,797 ✭✭✭✭ PARlance


    I don't want to kick men when they're down but I'm going to :) And I hope a few earlier comments protect me from accusations of aftertiming.... Last week was never the week for a WC, it was a frustration WC in my eyes.

    There was only one real transfer needed imo, that being Payet. Aguero if you didn't have him and a case for Costa too.
    Anything outside of that, was just a case of reshuffling defences from what I've seen. I say reshuffling rather than improving as no team(s) is really shouting out as must haves. When Spurs are the most "must have" defensive unit, it says a lot for the fairly poor returns from defences across the board.

    I only saw one WC team (think it was Spock) that really looked like it was a WC with a difference. It was far enough from template but with nice possibilities to make a difference.
    All the rest weren't far off template and I'm not surprised the scoring was so close between those who WC'd and not. Even if it was a high scoring week, I think the scores would have been similar.

    Sorry guys :( Vote Busts :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    PARlance wrote: »
    I don't want to kick men when they're down but I'm going to :) And I hope a few earlier comments protect me from accusations of aftertiming.... Last week was never the week for a WC, it was a frustration WC in my eyes.

    There was only one real transfer needed imo, that being Payet. Aguero if you didn't have him and a case for Costa too.
    Anything outside of that, was just a case of reshuffling defences from what I've seen. I say reshuffling rather than improving as no team(s) is really shouting out as must haves. When Spurs are the most "must have" defensive unit, it says a lot for the fairly poor returns from defences across the board.

    I only saw one WC team (think it was Spock) that really looked like it was a WC with a difference. It was far enough from template but with nice possibilities to make a difference.
    All the rest weren't far off template and I'm not surprised the scoring was so close between those who WC'd and not. Even if it was a high scoring week, I think the scores would have been similar.

    Sorry guys :( Vote Busts :)

    Personally I had to wildcard as I wanted to readjust my team shape from a strong front 8 with relatively expensive defence . To a cheap defence with the scope for getting in as many big hitters as possible.
    Before wildcard my eleven this week was
    Ddg
    Walker Dawson jos
    Ramsey ozil kdb mahrez
    Vardy lukaku kane
    After wildcard
    Hennesey
    Williams Daniels wolly
    Mahrez kdb alli Pedro
    Aguero kane lukaku
    Normally the wildcard team would outscore the pre wildcard team. When I wildcarded it was also hoped that Sanchez would be back and I would have had him in my team. I know can get him in 1 transfer.
    If I didn't wildcard I was getting Aguero and it was costing me 8 pts and I still wouldn't be happy with my team and would need more point hits to get Sanchez in and change my team structure.
    Despite my poor score I'm happy with my teams points potential over the next 6 gws.
    The key reason I wanted to do this thread is to see how many extra players playing a late wildcarder gets over an early wildcarder and the amount of hits that were taking by both sides over the time period.
    My opinion is that if your looking at anything over a 12 pt hit to sort your team out your best to wildcard rather than waiting for the doubles. The ideal scenario is to be happy with your team and wait for the doubles .
    We were also in a scenario of a few teams having 4 homes in the next 6 and half the teams having 2 home games in a row which statistically should improve your chance of getting points.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,972 ✭✭✭✭ SteelyDanJalapeno


    Any Wildcarders this week?


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,022 ✭✭✭✭ Iused2likebusts


    After 1 gw for the 7 players
    Non wildcarders got 202 pts and there TV went up .4
    Wildcarders got 201 pts and there TV went down .2
    Between the 14 of us the lowest score was 22 busts:( and the highest score was fhfc 34. The non wildcarders took 4 hits between the 7 of them which has been deducted from their score.
    Im not sure how valuable the TV data will be RV would be more relevant. Id imagine the wildcarders TV dropped due to having players in in the short term to try and make the elusive .2 profit.
    I think the wildcarders are unfortunate the way the week panned out with nobody bar payet delivering from an attacking sense and only city keeping a CS of the teams a wildcarder would have played. Usually you would expect and get a short term bounce from a wildcard. There are some crazy weeks like the gw we just had throughout the season and none of us can predict when that will happen.
    My team if I hadnt wildcarded would have got me 10 extra points and it was much weaker on paper than the one I ended up having with my wildcard.

    Quick update on this the wildcards got 539 pts between them an average of 77 pts. The dgw wildcarders got 478 pts an average of 68 pts. So after 2 gws the wildcarders on average have 9 pts more. This wildcard bounce is to be expected( but not guaranteed) and is something that needs to be factored in when dgw wildcarders should outscore early wildcarders later when the double comes about.
    The key difference I noticed is that 6 of the 7 wildcard teams had both Swansea and Bournemouth defensive coverage. Some combo of rangel, Williams, smith, Daniels. Some of us had Williams and Daniels, some had rangel, and 1 benched Williams. Of the non wildcarders only fhfc had Williams a player he had a few weeks. With aguero and payet returning defensive transfers werent gping to be high priority for a non wildcarder. Obviously Williams and Daniels scoring is a lucky event for those with both the flipside is that I'd class what happened the previous gw as unlucky for a wildcarder with basically no player bar payet delivering.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,262 ✭✭✭ iroced


    Quick update on this the wildcards got 539 pts between them an average of 77 pts. The dgw wildcarders got 478 pts an average of 68 pts. So after 2 gws the wildcarders on average have 9 pts more. This wildcard bounce is to be expected( but not guaranteed) and is something that needs to be factored in when dgw wildcarders should outscore early wildcarders later when the double comes about.
    The key difference I noticed is that 6 of the 7 wildcard teams had both Swansea and Bournemouth defensive coverage. Some combo of rangel, Williams, smith, Daniels. Some of us had Williams and Daniels, some had rangel, and 1 benched Williams. Of the non wildcarders only fhfc had Williams a player he had a few weeks. With aguero and payet returning defensive transfers werent gping to be high priority for a non wildcarder. Obviously Williams and Daniels scoring is a lucky event for those with both the flipside is that I'd class what happened the previous gw as unlucky for a wildcarder with basically no player bar payet delivering.

    Daniels & Williams combined for something like an 18 pts bonus over the best expected scenario (Williams 9 pts & Daniels 6). This is a pretty rare bonus for the early WCers who got both of them. I don't quite get how someone benched Williams? Home to Watford and knowing how much a bonus magnet he is.

    You can't average it to the previous GW unlucky outcome though since no one performed bar Payet among the popular WC & non-WC players!


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