Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

10000maniacs · 26-02-2019 12:45PM

So it's official, the choices are that on March 13th, 1: Mays Deal or 2: an extension if the HOC votes for it, or 3: if they don't vote for it, a hard Brexit.

ballsymchugh · 26-02-2019 12:49PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Indicates what we've known for a while: if Brexit is cancelled or deferred, Sterling will rise. If No Deal occurs, Sterling will plummet. These rises are on the back of a belief that an extension at the very least is now a likely outcome.

i think today is the first time in 3 years that sterling has gotten stronger while Theresa May is speaking

Zubeneschamali · 26-02-2019 12:50PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

It wouldn't be the end of it. A few years from now a future Conservative leader could conceivably call another referendum

Cameron calling that referendum was the worst mistake by a Prime Minister since WWII. No PM will ever touch that idea with a 40 foot pole ever again if they can just get the Brexit genie back in the bottle.

Seth Brundle · 26-02-2019 12:51PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Big Tegzy speaking now

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1PlKQyVbmQBKE

So no movement from her :eek:

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The swing isn't huge though.
In any new referendum, I suspect that a lot of people in the middle will just not be arsed and it will be those with stronger held views who swing it (on one side or the other)

Panrich · 26-02-2019 12:52PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

So it's official, the choices are that on March 13th, 1: Mays Deal or 2: an extension if the HOC votes for it, or 3: if they don't vote for it, a hard Brexit.

An extension along the lines that May proposes will not solve very much. A couple of months extension only postpones the car crash.

ToBeFrank123 · 26-02-2019 12:53PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Cameron calling that referendum was the worst mistake by a Prime Minister since WWII. No PM will ever touch that idea with a 40 foot pole ever again if they can just get the Brexit genie back in the bottle.

People have short memories, particularly in politics.

There is always some smooth talking charlatan like Farage or Johnson who could convince people they know best and a Brexit is in their interests.

If someone talked of leaving the EU in any other country, they would be laughed out of it. In UK the idea is/was taken seriously for some reason.

EKRIUQ · 26-02-2019 12:57PM

road_high wrote: »

So No Deal is coming off the table?
So surely a delayis inevitable then if there’s No deal agreed by end March now?

100% she won't be able to get her deal passed which will mean a delay of Brexit which will probably be the 2 year extension considering May's kicking the can tactics.

I imagine everything will go quiet in this period until the end and then probably another referendum in the UK.

The 2 year delay is the best option at the moment as much as I hate the idea of another 2 years on uncertainty. The EU could and should put there footdown but they won't as they still want the UK as a member.

ancapailldorcha · 26-02-2019 12:58PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The swing isn't huge though.
In any new referendum, I suspect that a lot of people in the middle will just not be arsed and it will be those with stronger held views who swing it (on one side or the other)

I disagree. I don't know how close to the mark polls can get but the sheer levels of farce of the past 2 years exceeded everyone's expectations. Plus you have how many 15+ year olds from 2016 now able to vote.

BobbyBobberson · 26-02-2019 01:01PM

1. Meaningful vote by 12 March on latest version of May Deal.
2. If it fails to secure Commons majority, on 13 March May to ask Commons about leaving with no deal
3. If no deal rejected May to propose a short extension to Art 50 on Mar 14

What happens if MPs vote against no deal but then vote against extending Article 50?

(Stolen from twitter)

woohoo!!! · 26-02-2019 01:01PM

Give them a 6 week extension and no more cos they're still talking unicorns.

briany · 26-02-2019 01:02PM

Crunch time. Better put in for stocks on yellow high-viz jackets and popcorn.

March 12 - Vote on May's deal
March 13 - Vote on no-deal
March 14 - Vote on an extension

What must the ERG be thinking? I think May could have them cornered on this.

Joe_ Public · 26-02-2019 01:04PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Cameron calling that referendum was the worst mistake by a Prime Minister since WWII. No PM will ever touch that idea with a 40 foot pole ever again if they can just get the Brexit genie back in the bottle.

But he only initially offered the referendum in the confident belief the lib dems would veto it when it came to forming the the inevitable post election coalition. It was a miscalculation to be exact, a guy undone by a Macmillian events, dear boy, events.

farmchoice · 26-02-2019 01:05PM

briany wrote: »

Crunch time. Better put in for stocks on yellow high-viz jackets and popcorn.

March 12 - Vote on May's deal
March 13 - Vote on no-deal
March 14 - Vote on an extension

What must the ERG be thinking? I think May could have them cornered on this.

there is a part of me that thinks the ERG or at least a fair percentage of them are terrified of a no deal brexit, for all their talk to the contrary.

now the question is whether they prefer the brexit the WA will give them (soft as soft can be) or sticking to their guns and the fun of dragging out the whole debate for another 3 months at least and god knows how long again after that.

Zubeneschamali · 26-02-2019 01:12PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

There is always some smooth talking charlatan like Farage or Johnson who could convince people they know best and a Brexit is in their interests.

But Cameron did not call the referendum because he wanted Brexit, he just wanted to keep the Eurosceptics in his party happy. When he promised a referendum, he did not expect to win the next election. And when he called the referendum, he expected remain to win.

No PM will make that mistake again.

briany · 26-02-2019 01:15PM

farmchoice wrote: »

there is a part of me that thinks the ERG or at least a fair percentage of them are terrified of a no deal brexit, for all their talk to the contrary.

now the question is whether they prefer the brexit the WA will give them (soft as soft can be) or sticking to their guns and the fun of dragging out the whole debate for another 3 months at least and god knows how long again after that.

We shouldn't forget that the DUP are dead set against May's deal because it has special stipulations for NI. If it goes through, would they withdraw their support for the government? That's the sting in the tail of May's deal. The most likely course of events that I see is extension > referendum > remain vote > political machinations over the EU for at least a generation.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 26-02-2019 01:20PM

road_high wrote: »

Extension if No Deal is agreed she's saying.

EU27: "No thanks"

How is that taking no-deal off the table? SMH

VinLieger · 26-02-2019 01:27PM

Thinking about it if they had a 2nd vote and it went remain this whole thing could well result in the complete opposite of what cameron originally intended and end up splitting the tories or at least the tory vote between themselves and something like the brexit party

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 26-02-2019 01:29PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Thinking about it if they had a 2nd vote and it went remain this whole thing could well result in the complete opposite of what cameron originally intended and end up splitting the tories or at least the tory vote between themselves and something like the brexit party

That's why I don't fully understand Labour's game here. If Labour could get the votes to push for a second referendum (and they don't know because they haven't been going down that route) they could potentially split the Tory party and be in Government before the summer and remain there for the foreseeable future.

Leroy42 · 26-02-2019 01:32PM

So hold on. What did TM announce today?

There is still the option of her Deal, and No deal. Then if neither of them are voted for they will seek an extension, but she didn't say for how long? Have I got that right?

So she has announced nothing but a time delay dressed up as an announcement. Apart from accepting that a delay is now a possibility, which up till yesterday she was adamant was not an option (how many U turns is that now?) she hasn't really moved anything on at all.

Or am I missing something?

Artifacting · 26-02-2019 01:33PM

I wouldn't take it for granted that a rerun would result in a reversal of the vote. Any polls taken at present would be in the relative calm of nobody campaigning.

The Brexiteers are quite capable of ramping up the communications, spin, lies, jingoism, nationalism and press all the fear buttons and so on.

seamus · 26-02-2019 01:33PM

Despite what appears to be at least a good outcome of sorts where they'll at least discuss an extension of article 50, I don't trust May or the HoC not to crash out due to indecision paralysis. What if they vote against all 3? Which is very likely. Why not a single vote, ask the house of commons what their preference is, and run with it.

They will vote "against" no deal because they did before. But that didn't stop them rumbling on towards no deal. And it won't stop it again. It's absolutely absurd that they propose voting on asking for an extension less than two calendar weeks before they're due to leave. This isn't a college essay they're asking to postpone, it's withdrawal of 60 million people from a trading bloc. At that point the EU will be bracing for Brexit, not looking to discuss a pointless delay of it.

farmchoice · 26-02-2019 01:33PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

So hold on. What did TM announce today?

There is still the option of her Deal, and No deal. Then if neither of them are voted for they will seek an extension, but she didn't say for how long? Have I got that right?

So she has announced nothing but a time delay dressed up as an announcement. Apart from accepting that a delay is now a possibility, which up till yesterday she was adamant was not an option (how many U turns is that now?) she hasn't really moved anything on at all.

Or am I missing something?

she did say how long, 3 months up to june, then its back to a deal or no deal.

boggerman1 · 26-02-2019 01:38PM

Jeffery Donaldson on radio 1 now sounds a beaten docket in my opinion.he seems to realize that they have been thrown under the bus.sammy must not be available

26-02-2019 01:39PM

Referendum for Deal or No Deal. Or let the HoC rescind Article 50. It's saying something when so many in the most affected EU country are absolutely sick of them and don't even want them to remain.

Invest in popcorn and hold tight.

jochenstacker · 26-02-2019 01:40PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Looks like today May will announce she is taking "no deal" off the table.

From a Brexiter view point that is catastrophic. It's the only remotest leverage UK had.

No more incentive for EU to give on anything now. Great for us.

There is no leverage. No Deal is just took an option for the UK to slit it's own throat.
Of course, from the perspective of someone who was looking forward to exactly that, it is of course catastrophic.
I'm not sure why someone would want that option anyway.
I'm guessing malicious intent or a lack of understanding.
Either way, no deal has absolutely nothing positive to offer.

VinLieger · 26-02-2019 01:50PM

boggerman1 wrote: »

Jeffery Donaldson on radio 1 now sounds a beaten docket in my opinion.he seems to realize that they have been thrown under the bus.sammy must not be available

Theyve been given a lifeline though, this pushes a border poll much further out than a no deal situation would. The fact that the DUP cannot see this is just baffling to me, unlike farage, boris, mogg et al the DUP seem to also swallow the swill the spit out

EKRIUQ · 26-02-2019 01:52PM

No deal is gone, should never have been used as a bargaining position in the first place.
Mays deal won't pass
Extension will pass (or what is supposed to happen?) but like the Brady Agreement, they will vote for it and take it as a victory but it won't accomplish much unless the deal is passed on.

Ball is now in the EU's court.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 26-02-2019 01:58PM

EKRIUQ wrote: »

No deal is gone, should never have been used as a bargaining position in the first place.
Mays deal won't pass
Extension will pass (or what is supposed to happen?) but like the Brady Agreement, they will vote for it and take it as a victory but it won't accomplish much unless the deal is passed on.

No deal is absolutely not gone, not sure how you could say that? No deal will just been kicked down the road when May's deal doesn't pass... if the extension passes.

Ball is now in the EU's court.

No, it's really not.

J Mysterio · 26-02-2019 02:00PM

1. May's deal will be rejected.
2. No Deal will be rejected
3. Extension will pass

Then what? Then they wilo just argue for what the extension is for, and how long.

How will they get a majority as to the purpose of the extension? That is just another rabbithole.

ToBeFrank123 · 26-02-2019 02:02PM

EKRIUQ wrote: »

No deal is gone, should never have been used as a bargaining position in the first place.
Mays deal won't pass
Extension will pass (or what is supposed to happen?) but like the Brady Agreement, they will vote for it and take it as a victory but it won't accomplish much unless the deal is passed on.

Ball is now in the EU's court.

EU have said renegotiation is not an option particularly on the backstop. If they stick with that, which they probably will, that will be a dead end too. The EU want the UK to remain for a number of reasons. More and more the EU are subtly pushing the UK down the remain path. The result of the (first?) referendum is irrelevant in their eyes.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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