Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

breatheme · 18-02-2019 06:50PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

We will probably never know but the EU-Japanese trade agreement would surely make it more attractive to Japan to manufacture in its own country as there's no need to have plants in the EU to bypass tariffs.
Ironically the EU is a victim of the exact problems it says the UK will encounter when it enters trade agreements with the likes of Japan,China and the US.

True. But that's why governments take a long time negotiating FTAs. They want to give and take as much as they can while protecting both of their internal producers.

But one does not take the decision to close a fully functioning plant likely.

Tell me how · 18-02-2019 06:52PM

rivegauche wrote: »

I doubt many people in the Honda plant were voting for BREXIT. They would been aware that they are in competition with the world for their jobs.

This is the bizarre reality of Brexit. Many of the areas which are losing car jobs were heavily in favour of leaving. They interviewed workers at a plant in Wales some week ago which announced job cuts citing Brexit. Some of the workers, at the gate, said, "What can you do, the world economy is changing"

It is these people, who will suffer because of Brexit, who are being referred to by the arch Brexiteers who will not suffer because of Brexit that their vote must be respected.

It is as confusing as the leader (who wants to remain) Theresa May, heading the conservatives (who want to leave) while Labour (who want to remain) are headed by Corbyn (who wants to leave).

Akrasia · 18-02-2019 06:55PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

An extension is more likely than a revocation imo.

EU elections in May. An extension to A50 really disrupts this and causes all kinds of problems for the next EU parliament. The EU27 need to unanimously agree to an extension. The only way there will be an extension is if Theresa May completely changes her approach, removes a whole load of her 'Red Lines' and puts forward a credible pathway towards getting a deal passed by her parliament... Is that really likely to happen in the next 2 weeks?

She's never going to get her own party to vote for anything she brings forward, she would need support from other parties, without huge changes to the deal, Labour aren't gonna vote for her.

Enzokk · 18-02-2019 06:56PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

We will probably never know but the EU-Japanese trade agreement would surely make it more attractive to Japan to manufacture in its own country as there's no need to have plants in the EU to bypass tariffs.
Ironically the EU is a victim of the exact problems it says the UK will encounter when it enters trade agreements with the likes of Japan,China and the US.

You have to wonder what the benefits are in producing products in the single market vs shipping them half way across the world. I would guess for Honda the potential tariffs in the event of a no-deal would be more than just shifting production to an existing factory. We will not know if they would have rather shifted their production to another EU factory as their only factory was in the UK in the EU.

Either way it seems that all companies bet that the UK will be their diesel stronghold in the EU and this is why they are having to cut production or expansion plans. Bad luck for the UK? Or with Brexit the decision is made easier?

Christy42 · 18-02-2019 07:04PM

Is it just me or do there seem to be lots of companies relocating jobs/capital/hqs from the UK in the run up to Brexit none of which seem to have anything to do with Brexit according to some.

The UK must have f'd up something else horribly to cause all this if it has nothing to do with Brexit.

First Up · 18-02-2019 07:08PM

Christy42 wrote:

Is it just me or do there seem to be lots of companies relocating jobs/capital/hqs from the UK in the run up to Brexit none of which seem to have anything to do with Brexit according to some.

Its a bit like ignoring the weather forecast and going out without an umbrella.

That doesn't make it rain but it leaves you in a much worse situation if it does.

Tell me how · 18-02-2019 07:09PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Is it just me or do there seem to be lots of companies relocating jobs/capital/hqs from the UK in the run up to Brexit none of which seem to have anything to do with Brexit according to some.

The UK must have f'd up something else horribly to cause all this if it has nothing to do with Brexit.

I don't think that there are any companies who export outside of the UK (either in goods or services) or those who still trade within the UK but with imported materials or ingredients who can definitively say that Brexit is not going to impact them whatsoever at this point.

That being said, I bet that some companies have used the confusion to make decisions which might have been more difficult to make outside of Brexit, down sizing, closing branch offices, relocating etc, these things always have happened on some scale, I wouldn't be surprised if some are being blamed on Brexit even though it may have been done anyway.

RobMc59 · 18-02-2019 07:18PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Is it just me or do there seem to be lots of companies relocating jobs/capital/hqs from the UK in the run up to Brexit none of which seem to have anything to do with Brexit according to some.

The UK must have f'd up something else horribly to cause all this if it has nothing to do with Brexit.

Who knows-the fact the EU and Japan signed off a trade agreement in the beginning of February, then 2 days later there are rumblings from Nissan and 2 weeks after that there is honda moving back to Japan has nothing to do with the EU Japanese trade deal which removes tariffs...

Podge_irl · 18-02-2019 07:29PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Who knows-the fact the EU and Japan signed off a trade agreement in the beginning of February, then 2 days later there are rumblings from Nissan and 2 weeks after that there is honda moving back to Japan has nothing to do with the EU Japanese trade deal which removes tariffs...

It probably makes it easier to move production back to Japan rather than to move it to e.g. Germany. If you have to move either way, you may as well move production back local. But if you can produce locally with 0 tariff or abroad with 10% tariff then it is an easy choice. It is impossible to tease out the details of the decision though.

Imreoir2 · 18-02-2019 07:33PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Who knows-the fact the EU and Japan signed off a trade agreement in the beginning of February, then 2 days later there are rumblings from Nissan and 2 weeks after that there is honda moving back to Japan has nothing to do with the EU Japanese trade deal which removes tariffs...

I seriously doubt that Honda would simply walk away from the investment it has made in the UK in the absence of Brexit. It is possible that the EU/Japan trade deal would have seen future investment in their UK manafacturing base decline, or maybe not. Such a drastic decision is almost certanly directly related to Brexit and the UK becoming an unsafe and unstable country for investments.

jm08 · 18-02-2019 07:37PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

We will probably never know but the EU-Japanese trade agreement would surely make it more attractive to Japan to manufacture in its own country as there's no need to have plants in the EU to bypass tariffs.
Ironically the EU is a victim of the exact problems it says the UK will encounter when it enters trade agreements with the likes of Japan,China and the US.

There are gains for other industries though - for example, the Japanese market is opening up to agric products. I also think that cars will continue to be assembled in Europe as transport costs would be too much from Japan.

Folkstonian · 18-02-2019 07:39PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

I seriously doubt that Honda would simply walk away from the investment it has made in the UK in the absence of Brexit. It is possible that the EU/Japan trade deal would have seen future investment in their UK manafacturing base decline, or maybe not. Such a drastic decision is almost certanly directly related to Brexit and the UK becoming an unsafe and unstable country for investments.

I think ultimately, on this occasion, it really is quite simple. The EU signs a big trade deal with Japan which abolishes import tariffs on Japanese vehicles into the European market overnight.

Japanese car makers subsequently decide to build all their cars in Japan and import them to the EU tariff free.

I wonder, given the amount of time this deal has been on the cards, who it was on the EU that ultimately made the decision to do the legs of british employees of big Japanese car builders, and maybe more importantly, why nobody representing Britain in the EU kicked up a fuss.

Podge_irl · 18-02-2019 07:42PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think ultimately, on this occasion, it really is quite simple. The EU signs a big trade deal with Japan which abolishes import tariffs on Japanese vehicles into the European market overnight.

Japanese car makers subsequently decide to build all their cars in Japan and import them to the EU tariff free.

I wonder, given the amount of time this deal has been on the cards, who it was on the EU that ultimately made the decision to do the legs of british employees of big Japanese car builders, and maybe more importantly, why nobody representing Britain in the EU kicked up a fuss.

No, it is not that simple. You completely ignored the potential (and increasingly likely) tariff on their imports into the EU if they stayed where they are. The incentive to move operations and the cost that inevitably entails would be a lot lower if it was a mere status quo change. It isn't though, moving production back to Japan could now actually save money thanks to Brexit.

Enzokk · 18-02-2019 07:42PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think ultimately, on this occasion, it really is quite simple. The EU signs a big trade deal with Japan which abolishes import tariffs on Japanese vehicles into the European market overnight.

Japanese car makers subsequently decide to build all their cars in Japan and import them to the EU tariff free.

I wonder, given the amount of time this deal has been on the cards, who it was on the EU that ultimately made the decision to do the legs of british employees of big Japanese car builders, and maybe more importantly, why nobody representing Britain in the EU kicked up a fuss.

What do you think the transport cost is for cars from Japan to Europe? How long does it take to be transported as well?

Junkyard Tom · 18-02-2019 07:44PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Who knows-the fact the EU and Japan signed off a trade agreement in the beginning of February, then 2 days later there are rumblings from Nissan and 2 weeks after that there is honda moving back to Japan has nothing to do with the EU Japanese trade deal which removes tariffs...

I'm guessing that the British were intimately involved in crafting this EU-Japan trade deal and must have concluded that it posed no appreciable risk to their Japanese auto-manufacturing multinationals.

Imreoir2 · 18-02-2019 07:44PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think ultimately, on this occasion, it really is quite simple. The EU signs a big trade deal with Japan which abolishes import tariffs on Japanese vehicles into the European market overnight.

Japanese car makers subsequently decide to build all their cars in Japan and import them to the EU tariff free.

I wonder, given the amount of time this deal has been on the cards, who it was on the EU that ultimately made the decision to do the legs of british employees of big Japanese car builders, and maybe more importantly, why nobody representing Britain in the EU kicked up a fuss.

I guess we will have to wait and see how many Japanese car manafacturing plants based inside the EU27 announce they are closing up shop over the next few weeks. It would be rather challenging for your theory if the plants in the UK close or are downsized as a result of the EU/Japan deal while those remaining inside the Single Market are not.

Water John · 18-02-2019 07:45PM

Wouldn't know transport cost but ship on the sea about 5 weeks.

woohoo!!! · 18-02-2019 08:01PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Bit cynical wrote: »

An extension is more likely than a revocation imo.

As it stands currently - why would the EU agree to that?

Indeed. UK to EU:

Hi, we'd like a time extension so we can have several more months of domestic procrastination, talking in circles and trying to annoy you into submission to drop the backstop, and thereafter we'll find other stuff we don't like.

EU: umm no thanks, the past two and a half years have seemed like a life time.

listermint · 18-02-2019 08:06PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think ultimately, on this occasion, it really is quite simple. The EU signs a big trade deal with Japan which abolishes import tariffs on Japanese vehicles into the European market overnight.

Japanese car makers subsequently decide to build all their cars in Japan and import them to the EU tariff free.

I wonder, given the amount of time this deal has been on the cards, who it was on the EU that ultimately made the decision to do the legs of british employees of big Japanese car builders, and maybe more importantly, why nobody representing Britain in the EU kicked up a fuss.

They didn't need to as they had market access. They don't anymore meaning tariffs.

Basically everything to do with brexit .

But hey project fear aye.... Isn't this all Europe's fault. Perhaps it was Guy and junker stepping out of line mouthing off that caused it.

Nothing to do with fairytale plans of being in the market but out of the market at the same time

Wooo waves brexit flag..... What was that poll again were brexiteers said they'd be more than happy for family members to lose their jobs to secure brexit. Well here it is . The coal face.

Nody · 18-02-2019 08:07PM

Water John wrote: »

Wouldn't know transport cost but ship on the sea about 5 weeks.

On the top of my head for a 40" container you'd probably look around 1k USD +/- but bulk delivery obviously cheaper. Note that would be port to port only; need to add in the ends on each side on top of that.

brickster69 · 18-02-2019 08:10PM

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think ultimately, on this occasion, it really is quite simple. The EU signs a big trade deal with Japan which abolishes import tariffs on Japanese vehicles into the European market overnight.

Japanese car makers subsequently decide to build all their cars in Japan and import them to the EU tariff free.

I wonder, given the amount of time this deal has been on the cards, who it was on the EU that ultimately made the decision to do the legs of british employees of big Japanese car builders, and maybe more importantly, why nobody representing Britain in the EU kicked up a fuss.

They will not be exporting tariff free to the EU. It is to be phased into 0% over 7 years. Year one starts at 8.8%, similar with lots of other products.

Honda will be producing mainly from Thailand due to wages being 1/8 of Europes. That's the way it seems to be going unfortunately.

boggerman1 · 18-02-2019 08:13PM

It's all project fear.sure they're great Britain and everyone needs to deal with them .still astonishing to see Tory mps saying the closure of Honda is nothing to do with brexit.its diesel,unicorns and whatever you might swallow

listermint · 18-02-2019 08:15PM

Nody wrote: »

On the top of my head for a 40" container you'd probably look around 1k USD +/- but bulk delivery obviously cheaper. Note that would be port to port only; need to add in the ends on each side on top of that.

These don't come on containers. They are specialised vehicle transporters.

RobMc59 · 18-02-2019 08:16PM

listermint wrote: »

They didn't need to as they had market access. They don't anymore meaning tariffs.

Basically everything to do with brexit .

But hey project fear aye.... Isn't this all Europe's fault. Perhaps it was Guy and junker stepping out of line mouthing off that caused it.

Nothing to do with fairytale plans of being in the market but out of the market at the same time

Wooo waves brexit flag..... What was that poll again were brexiteers said they'd be more than happy for family members to lose their jobs to secure brexit. Well here it is . The coal face.

Hindsight is a great thing-there are undoubtedly people in the UK who regret brexit decisions which as you say is tough but self inflicted.Perhaps the UK might learn from the EU`s trade deal with Japan-what exactly is the advantage to the EU?The advantages for Japan are obvious as we can now see.

18-02-2019 08:19PM

Every so often I see the amount of time remaining left and am in disbelief that the idiocy is continuing.
However over the last few days I hate to admit I've been idly daydreaming and thinking about interesting it's going to be to watch a society go down the drain. There's a certain amount of Schadenfraude involved and I'm not proud of it but it looks like it could be an event for the ages.

Professor Moriarty · 18-02-2019 08:24PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Every so often I see the amount of time remaining left and am in disbelief that the idiocy is continuing.
However over the last few days I hate to admit I've been idly daydreaming and thinking about interesting it's going to be to watch a society go down the drain. There's a certain amount of Schadenfraude involved and I'm not proud of it but it looks like it could be an event for the ages.

We could be collateral damage. The image from Lord of the Rings of the Balrog reaching up to grab Gandalf as it plummeted to its death springs to mind.

Junkyard Tom · 18-02-2019 08:31PM

brickster69 wrote: »

Honda will be producing mainly from Thailand due to wages being 1/8 of Europes.

I can't imagine the EU agreeing to undercut its own indigenous auto industry by allowing the Japanese to stamp 'Made In Japan' on Thai stuff and sell it into the EU.

SimonTemplar · 18-02-2019 08:34PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Every so often I see the amount of time remaining left and am in disbelief that the idiocy is continuing.
However over the last few days I hate to admit I've been idly daydreaming and thinking about interesting it's going to be to watch a society go down the drain. There's a certain amount of Schadenfraude involved and I'm not proud of it but it looks like it could be an event for the ages.

I have no desire to see the UK suffer. Aside from how closely Ireland's economy is linked to the UK, I like the UK a lot, came close to moving there a few times, love visiting the place, some of my good friends are from there and despite the ref result, a vast majority of them are decent people.

Everyone makes mistakes, and I suppose that goes for countries too. The problem is that May initially chose the harshest possible interpretation of the result, followed by unreasonable red lines, and she is now stuck at a position that is borderline delusional. This is made worse by both the Tories and labour putting party before country. And all this is preventing the UK from correcting their mistake.

Folkstonian · 18-02-2019 08:38PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I can't imagine the EU agreeing to undercut its own indigenous auto industry by allowing the Japanese to stamp 'Made In Japan' on Thai stuff and sell it into the EU.

Yeah it’s not true - they are consolidating manufacturing in Japan.

The Honda factory in turkey (inside the CU obviously) is also closing with the vehicles made there also being transferred to japan.

I’m not one for obstinately saying that there are no ill-effects being felt by manufacturers in Britain by us leaving the European Union but in this instance it does look like it’s not a major factor, to me at least

54and56 · 18-02-2019 08:39PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Whatever about May's deep and myriad flaws, she didn't hop on a bus to peddle lies to the public to entice them to vote for Economic ruination under the guise of regaining freedom, resources and capital.

True, but why oh why did she put herself, as a remainer, forward for the role of PM when the sole focus of that role for the following 2-3 years at a minimum would be securing a Brexit deal?

With hindsight (I know I know) it's clear that the only candidates who should have been allowed to put their names forward should have been confirmed Brexiteers who had nailed their colours to the mast during the referendum campaign.

If Cameron didn't feel he could stay on as a reaminer to implement Brexit what on earth made TM think she should do it and worse, why did the Tory MP's allow her to secure the role without allowing a Brexit candidate to oppose her?

That decision, combined with TM's disastrous snap election decision have to be two of the worst political moves in the history of politics!!

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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