Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

woohoo!!! · 10-02-2019 1:42pm

eagle eye wrote: »

It's not a likely option because there are lots against it. This is not a majority rules type situation. There will be paramilitaries in operation if you try to have a United Ireland.
I'm in the Republic and I'd be against it because of the threat of a return to the troubles and also from a financial point if view too.

Minus the support of British army supplying and providing training like during the troubles, loyalist paramilitaries will be no worse than current drug gangs in Dublin

nice_guy80 · 10-02-2019 1:45pm

I can see a lot of Labour MPs backing the deal if it comes down to a cliff edge vote with no other option.

A lot of MPs won't want to be caught on the wrong side of a historical vote like that

Water John · 10-02-2019 1:48pm

That's what TM is banking on, LB MPs blinking.

Enzokk · 10-02-2019 1:58pm

Akrasia wrote: »

And Labour's big plan is another vote to make May hold another vote in 2 weeks.

Its comical.

May is lying to parliament with no consequences. She's pretending that she is getting concessions from Europe in private talks, when every single public statement from the EU is that the current deal will not be renegotiated without May changing her red lines.

Well Labour cannot do anything else to make her hold the vote. She has not obligation unless parliament forces her, which is what Labour will try to do with another vote. She can run the clock down if she isn't forced to have a vote.

CelticRambler · 10-02-2019 2:01pm

fly_agaric wrote: »

I don't think they would give a hoot about public opinion in NI on the issue.

One Docklands-type car bomb would quickly have them listening to public opinion. This is another example of the UKIP and ERG types being very selective in what they choose to remember and/or know about "the Border". Physical infrastructre on the NI-RoI border won't just be a barrier to trade; it'll also be a visual reminder to those identifying as Irish republicans that they're back under the yoke of Westminster. There's every likelihood that NI dissidents will take their fight to London and other English cities.

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

the EU ... will have lost its second largest donor.

This tired argument again? :rolleyes: The UK is not a "donor." Like all other member states, it contributes to or benefits from the EU budget depending on the performance of its economy. Economies evolve, so Ireland has recently switched to being a net contributor, and Poland is heading that way too. The collective effect of these changes means that the UK's contribution will not be missed.

In any case, we'll still be getting a decent "donation" from the UK when they pay for access to the many EU services they need to keep their country functionning - Galileo, Erasmus, Horzion, Europol, etc.

fash · 10-02-2019 2:06pm

Water John wrote: »

TM is doing the blindingly obvious. Going to the last minute and telling HOC to back Her Deal or No Deal. It's up to the HOC at this point, to put a stop to this charade.
Find a mechanism to rule out No Deal and vote it trough. The argument, shallow and all that it was, that she needed No Deal as a bargaining chip with Brussels, no longer holds.

The problem is that she has been effectively communicating to the HOC that her deal is insufficient and the EU will give in. When the EU does not - or gives cosmetic changes only, she then has the same problem that Cameron had "the best I could do".

eagle eye · 10-02-2019 2:09pm

woohoo!!! wrote:

Minus the support of British army supplying and providing training like during the troubles, loyalist paramilitaries will be no worse than current drug gangs in Dublin

They'll get plenty of money and support from sympathisers. They'll just bring in mercenaries to provide training.

fly_agaric · 10-02-2019 2:11pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

One Docklands-type car bomb would quickly have them listening to public opinion. This is another example of the UKIP and ERG types being very selective in what they choose to remember and/or know about "the Border". Physical infrastructre on the NI-RoI border won't just be a barrier to trade; it'll also be a visual reminder to those identifying as Irish republicans that they're back under the yoke of Westminster. There's every likelihood that NI dissidents will take their fight to London and other English cities.

Let's hope not. That would be a disaster; a new cycle of violence starting up all over again. The way things are going, the "public opinion" a Conservative govt. in the UK would listen to would be of the "fire a few of those predator drones over to NI to sort out the problem" variety! Think that's enough depression for a Sunday morning...

McMurphy · 10-02-2019 2:21pm

eagle eye wrote: »

It's not a likely option because there are lots against it. This is not a majority rules type situation. There will be paramilitaries in operation if you try to have a United Ireland.
I'm in the Republic and I'd be against it because of the threat of a return to the troubles and also from a financial point if view too.

Heard all this before, and I do not think that any unionist paramilitary units have the means or will to start any nonsense over a United Ireland that might come about as the end result of a democratic vote.

Let's not forget that without the insider help and assistance they were receiving from insider security forces many couldn't have operated as they did at all.

What would you envisage their aims or objectives would be?

eagle eye · 10-02-2019 2:24pm

Johnny Dogs wrote:

What would you envisage their aims or objectives would be?

To stay part of the Union obviously.

McMurphy · 10-02-2019 2:31pm

eagle eye wrote: »

To stay part of the Union obviously.

So they might hypothetically wage a campaign against the Irish govt to leave a part of the island and force it to insist that the UK start governing that part again, (keeping in mind it will have withdrawn as the result of a democratic vote/referendum)

This hypothetically speaking terror campaign would be conducted within a 32 county United Ireland with the unionist paramilitary forces having little support, and without its previous crutch of security force collusion and abetting.

I don't see it happening personally , but whatever you're having yourself.

woohoo!!! · 10-02-2019 2:49pm

eagle eye wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote:

Minus the support of British army supplying and providing training like during the troubles, loyalist paramilitaries will be no worse than current drug gangs in Dublin

They'll get plenty of money and support from sympathisers. They'll just bring in mercenaries to provide training.

Really? Main land Brits want nothing to do with as is. And bar black op support during the troubles, when they were at their height, they were inept. Now they're running drugs and intimidating their own community.

There'll be the usual crap during marching season, that's about it. People will do better than being stuck as an appendage to Westminster and will get on with their lives.

eagle eye · 10-02-2019 2:51pm

Johnny Dogs wrote:

I don't see it happening personally , but whatever you're having yourself.

It'll happen before there is a vote.

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-02-2019 2:56pm

eagle eye wrote: »

To stay part of the Union obviously.

Once Scotland leaves, their reasoning to stay part of a falling apart union goes somewhat out the window.

Perhaps it will change towards an 'independent' route instead, which would be it's very nature need closer relations with Dublin.

Interesting statistics is that by 2020 there will be more RC workers in the North than Prod for the 1st time ever, they days of closed shop H&W or Shorts monolopies are long gone.

breatheme · 10-02-2019 3:05pm

eagle eye wrote: »

To stay part of the Union obviously.

But they'd already be out of the Union... Rejoining wouldn't be an option.

briany · 10-02-2019 3:06pm

We know there's a section of the Unionist community who will never, under any circumstances, accept a United Ireland. It's pretty much fundamental to their worldview. It must not happen, it cannot be countenanced and it certainly should never be a success. What they'd do in the event of it is anyone's guess. It would be uncharted territory. The closest British Unionism came to being under a Dublin government was about 100 years ago when Home Rule was coming in. They promised a lot of violence then with the Larne Gun Running. Just as it cannot be said the current Irish state came around by peaceful means, nor can the same thing be said about Northern Ireland.

And if a border poll were to be called, and if it were to say yes to unification, you'd hope the result would be a little bit more than 52-48. Does the size of the minority have a bearing on how to proceed? Irish nationalists and Scottish nationalists who've criticised the Brexit referendum have kind of shot themselves in the foot, because they're advocating for their own referendums. Would it look hypocritical to accept a favourable vote that was as close? This would certainly be the accusation.

breatheme wrote: »

But they'd already be out of the Union... Rejoining wouldn't be an option.

Would the GFA be considered 'concluded' if a UI were to pass, or would the same Ireland/UK oversight continue?

Infini · 10-02-2019 3:10pm

Joanna Better Hairpiece wrote: »

Once Scotland leaves, their reasoning to stay part of a falling apart union goes somewhat out the window.

Perhaps it will change towards an 'independent' route instead, which would be it's very nature need closer relations with Dublin.

Interesting statistics is that by 2020 there will be more RC workers in the North than Prod for the 1st time ever, they days of closed shop H&W or Shorts monolopies are long gone.

It should be said while some feel theres a Catholic vs Protestant, Nationalist vs Unionist angle the thing that gets forgotten that theres a 3rd group growing the nonaligned or neutral faction that draws from both sides but doesnt care much about the whole identity issue of either only how their lives are affected. It will mean no side will have an overall majority however if theres any policy like a hard Brexit that adversely affects their lives it means that theyre not turning one group against the other but rather theyre alienating 2/3 of then instead.

woohoo!!! · 10-02-2019 3:12pm

briany wrote: »

We know there's a section of the Unionist community who will never, under any circumstances, accept a United Ireland. It's pretty much fundamental to their worldview. It must not happen, it cannot be countenanced and it certainly should never be a success. What they'd do in the event of it is anyone's guess. It would be uncharted territory. The closest British Unionism came to being under a Dublin government was about 100 years ago when Home Rule was coming in. They promised a lot of violence then with the Larne Gun Running. Just as it cannot be said the current Irish state came around by peaceful means, nor can the same thing be said about Northern Ireland.

And if a border poll were to be called, and if it were to say yes to unification, you'd hope the result would be a little bit more than 52-48. Does the size of the minority have a bearing on how to proceed? Irish nationalists and Scottish nationalists who've criticised the Brexit referendum have kind of shot themselves in the foot, because they're advocating for their own referendums. Would it look hypocritical to accept a favourable vote that was as close? This would certainly be the accusation.

breatheme wrote: »

But they'd already be out of the Union... Rejoining wouldn't be an option.

Would the GFA be considered 'concluded' if a UI were to pass, or would the same Ireland/UK oversight continue?

Yes, if they were not up front about what it would actually mean, in detail. We're pretty up front about referendums are here, same cannot be said across the pond

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-02-2019 3:14pm

The other worst-case solution would be a berlin wall through Belfast, half of Ulster is already green and the other orangey.
The virtual/mental border is another load of miles way past the existing one.

Again with an Independent Scotland, it would mean an even smaller NI state would be less relevant to London.

If Wales ever goes indie, a Holyhead oversea bridge to it's 3m folks mightn't be a bad idea.

jm08 · 10-02-2019 3:19pm

briany wrote: »

We know there's a section of the Unionist community who will never, under any circumstances, accept a United Ireland. It's pretty much fundamental to their worldview. It must not happen, it cannot be countenanced and it certainly should never be a success. What they'd do in the event of it is anyone's guess. It would be uncharted territory. The closest British Unionism came to being under a Dublin government was about 100 years ago when Home Rule was coming in. They promised a lot of violence then with the Larne Gun Running. Just as it cannot be said the current Irish state came around by peaceful means, nor can the same thing be said about Northern Ireland.

And if a border poll were to be called, and if it were to say yes to unification, you'd hope the result would be a little bit more than 52-48. Does the size of the minority have a bearing on how to proceed? Irish nationalists and Scottish nationalists who've criticised the Brexit referendum have kind of shot themselves in the foot, because they're advocating for their own referendums. Would it look hypocritical to accept a favourable vote that was as close? This would certainly be the accusation.

Would the GFA be considered 'concluded' if a UI were to pass, or would the same Ireland/UK oversight continue?

Attitudes are changing though among the younger unionist population. Here is a blog from Darren Cave, professional rugby player (30 ish) and who doesn't remember the troubles which is well worth a read.

The real problems – healthcare, homelessness, equality – are ignored because our government has been absent, with pay, since January 2017 over an Irish Language Act which was reportedly due to cost £8 million pounds. In the meantime elected Members of the Legislative Assembly have banked over £10 million in salaries without reporting for work (albeit they are at least present in their constituencies).

What is so depressing is that during this very same period of time the global perception of Ireland (the Republic of Ireland), has been radically altered following the Marriage Equality and Repeal the Eight referendums. Gone are the days of the Catholic Church denying progress. Gone are so many old perceptions and in their stead appears Dublin, this modern, multi-cultural society. It is a really cool place to visit. My former teammate Callum Black and I looked at the Dublin cafe culture and tried to replicate it in Belfast with our own place called Guilt Trip (we also sell handmade donuts).

The political landscape in Northern Ireland is a very sad state of affairs and I don’t know how it is going to change as the DUP versus Sinn Fein saga rumbles ever on with the two communities entrenched on either side. I would love in my life time to see parties not based around Unionist or Republican ideals taking control of our future.

https://www.thesportschronicle.com/rugby/darren-cave-ireland-rugby-brexit/

First Up · 10-02-2019 3:19pm

eagle eye wrote:

To stay part of the Union obviously.

Or independence. If somewhere as ridiculous as Kosovo can get away with it....

Dyr · 10-02-2019 3:24pm

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Minus the support of British army supplying and providing training like during the troubles, loyalist paramilitaries will be no worse than current drug gangs in Dublin

There is 100,000-150,000 legally owned firearms in NI. No figures on what side owns the most but you can guess. A large amount of British Army, RUC and TA members, both current and former, in the Unionist community too.

The questions are, would they try it on and why would the UK, EU and Ireland indulge a dysfunctional minority who always threaten violence to get their way?

Strazdas · 10-02-2019 3:25pm

nice_guy80 wrote: »

I can see a lot of Labour MPs backing the deal if it comes down to a cliff edge vote with no other option.

A lot of MPs won't want to be caught on the wrong side of a historical vote like that

Fintan O'Toole reckons the WA being passed will lead to ten years or more of bickering and arguing in the UK. 'Brexit' could be something that could go on for decades.

Having said that, they're probably going to have the ten years of bickering and arguing no matter what the outcome.

Capt'n Midnight · 10-02-2019 3:26pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

This tired argument again? :rolleyes: The UK is not a "donor." Like all other member states, it contributes to or benefits from the EU budget depending on the performance of its economy. Economies evolve, so Ireland has recently switched to being a net contributor, and Poland is heading that way too. The collective effect of these changes means that the UK's contribution will not be missed.

In any case, we'll still be getting a decent "donation" from the UK when they pay for access to the many EU services they need to keep their country functionning - Galileo, Erasmus, Horzion, Europol, etc.

UK economic growth has practically stalled since the vote.

Had it continued like the rest then they'd have £22Bn a year more in the state coffers. That's 2.5 times what they pay into the EU. So the EU is value for money.

A reminder that a slice of tariffs goes to fund the EU so if the UK decides not to pay the divorce bill it could be paid back that way.

And of course it was the UK who specifically got the EU to block third party access to Galileo. Back of the envelope would suggest a £5 Bn cost

Everything about Brexit seems to come back to an unplanned self-inflicted omnishambles.

10000maniacs · 10-02-2019 3:31pm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

10000maniacs wrote: »

The only problem is that all EU27 countries and 164 WTO countries have a veto on it happening.

No, they don't. It would only be the EU and UK (the EU as a single customs territory) who would agree and submit the agreement to the WTO. The WTO may impose conditions but this would not prevent it happening.

The difference between a customs union and free trade area is that while the customs union is a type of free trade area, it has common external tariffs.

Yes they do. According to paragraph 7 of article 24, any proposal between the UK and EU is subject to recommendations by ALL 164 members of the WTO, effectively giving any member of the WTO a veto on the "crash out" 10 year no tarriff deal between the UK and EU.

Water John · 10-02-2019 3:32pm

Two interesting things going on here;
Yvette Cooper is looking to bring back her amendment as follows,
'Further efforts could also be made this week by MPs to wrest control of the Brexit process from Theresa May, allowing the 29 March exit day to be delayed, after attempts to do so were rejected less than a fortnight ago. An amendment by Labour’s Yvette Cooper would suspend parliamentary rules which say that only the government can propose legislation to delay article 50, and put MPs in charge, giving them three days in control.'

Secondly the cross party proposal that TM's Deal is voted through but that is then put to the people, who have the final leave or stay decision.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/09/back-theresa-may-brexit-deal-then-hold-peoples-vote-backbencher-plan

woohoo!!! · 10-02-2019 3:44pm

Bambi wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Minus the support of British army supplying and providing training like during the troubles, loyalist paramilitaries will be no worse than current drug gangs in Dublin

There is 100,000-150,000 legally owned firearms in NI. No figures on what side owns the most but you can guess. A large amount of British Army, RUC and TA members, both current and former, in the Unionist community too.

The questions are, would they try it on and why would the UK, EU and Ireland indulge a dysfunctional minority who always threaten violence to get their way?

I think the answer is in the past. Do they have the wherewithal to organise a 1912 style UVF? Do they have the wherewithal to organise a strike like in the 70s to bring the province to a halt? No is the answer to both.

Now look at why the IRA got popular support back in the day? Discrimination, pogroms against communities and so on? Do you foresee this happening in a UI? I know I don't and I also know that they fear revenge for past sins. From this I don't foresee a mass rebellion vs a United Ireland. Indeed Dublin would be very conscious of offending them.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2019 4:22pm

You do have to giggle all the same

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1094544746062712832

woohoo!!! · 10-02-2019 4:34pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You do have to giggle all the same

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1094544746062712832

Heh, couldn't resist a nibble

CelticRambler · 10-02-2019 4:38pm

Strazdas wrote: »

Fintan O'Toole reckons the WA being passed will lead to ten years or more of bickering and arguing in the UK. 'Brexit' could be something that could go on for decades.

Having said that, they're probably going to have the ten years of bickering and arguing no matter what the outcome.

This is why they're probably going to end up in a chaotic Brexit. Even though that cross-party proposal is quite reasonable, there are so many factions who just don't "do" compromise, it probably won't attract the necessary votes.

It's been at least 48 hours now since I've heard anyone of importance say that the EU always caves at the last minute, so maybe (just maybe) the message has finally made its way into the heads of those that matter, but I just can't see how they're going to reposition themselves in the time remaining.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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