Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

badtoro

Infini wrote: »

prawnsambo wrote: »

What was that horrifying statistic about food-borne illnesses in the US? One in four people or something very high like that suffer one every year.

https://www.cdc.gov/foodsafety/foodborne-germs.html

48million people a year according to US CDC.

I wonder what the EU figures are?

Infini

badtoro wrote: »

I wonder what the EU figures are?

Found this

WHO estimates 23million in the Euro region

http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/295248/Presentation-DrKruse-FERG-event-Cph-031215.pdf?ua=1

Basically half the rate of the US CDC.

48million US pop = 325million according to googles.
23million EU pop = 512milllion including UK

Taking the 2

US rate is 14.7%
EU Rate is 4.5%

EU over 3 times lower. That says something now doesnt it.

Irish Praetorian

badtoro wrote: »

I wonder what the EU figures are?

So did I, best I have for the past two years is a single death out of a population of 4.5 million or 1 in 9 million chance per annum. In the US CDC figures linked from above suggest 2600ish deaths per year which over a population of 325 million indicates a rate of 1 in 125,000. It's literally not believable so I'm going to keep searching for figures regarding Irish food poisoning death rates.

EDIT: One update is Salmonella which reputedly causes 500 cases in Ireland per year, which over a population of 4.5 million is a 1 in 9000 chance, in the US according to the CDC there are 1.2 million cases, which again over a population of 325 million suggests a rate of 1 in 2700. Not quite the disparity suggested above but still quite disturbing, being 3ish times more likely.

lawred2

Infini wrote: »

Found this

WHO estimates 23million in the Euro region

http://www.euro.who.int/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/295248/Presentation-DrKruse-FERG-event-Cph-031215.pdf?ua=1

Basically half the rate of the US CDC.

That's about 1 out of every 20 or so

The US figure was for 1 out of every 6

CelticRambler

Here we go: Back May’s deal, then hold people’s vote

Theresa May could win parliament’s approval for her controversial Brexit deal in return for guaranteeing another referendum, under a new plan being drawn up by a cross-party group of MPs. The new vote would give the British people a simple choice: to confirm the decision or stay in the EU.

the idea ... is likely to be put forward as an amendment to the EU withdrawal bill

If the amendment passed through parliament but the deal was rejected in the subsequent referendum, the UK would stay in the EU under current arrangements.

If, however, the British people confirmed the decision of MPs to leave the EU under the terms of May’s deal, Brexit on these terms would immediately come into effect without any need for it to return to parliament.

“The beauty of this plan is that it holds attractions for both Leavers and Remainers. For Leavers, if the deal is confirmed by the British people, it offers a definitive end to the withdrawal process with Brexit sealed once and for all. For Remainers, on the other hand, it offers the chance to make the case to stay in the EU to the public, based on facts not promises as before,” said Kyle.

Well, that sounds like something that someone's put a bit of though into ... but I'm not sure Theresa's May's word is any kind of a guarantee anymore.

lawred2

CelticRambler wrote: »

Here we go: Back May’s deal, then hold people’s vote



Well, that sounds like something that someone's put a bit of though into ... but I'm not sure Theresa's May's word is any kind of a guarantee anymore.

I'll wait to see if there's any truth to that.. I'm doubtful that something like that is really in the pipeline

Infini

CelticRambler wrote: »

Here we go: Back May’s deal, then hold people’s vote



Well, that sounds like something that someone's put a bit of though into ... but I'm not sure Theresa's May's word is any kind of a guarantee anymore.

Truthfully this would only have a chance if they voted to approve the WA then trigger an A50 cancellation pending a 2nd referendum. EU might agree on those terms since at least one way or another there will be a way foward.

4068ac1elhodqr

48 days to go, not a long time by any standards.

When I win this Tues euromills (€150m), gonna flip it into a GBP account on March 31, 3am at 'full panic parity' rate (£)150m.
Wait a few months for them to sell their souls to the US/China on a trade deal, pull funds back at recovery rate of €175m.

That's the plan!

CelticRambler

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

It's literally not believable so I'm going to keep searching for figures regarding Irish food poisoning death rates.

The death rates in the US in just about every category are horrendous compared to the rest of the civilised world. They are (without exaggeration) in the same league as many Third World countries when it comes to the death rates of mothers in childbirth. From what I've read on the subject, it all comes down to the accessibility and affordability of healthcare - something about which Brexit Britain may have to make some hard choices in the coming years.

10000maniacs

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1094272467256963072

Do the ERG types like Rees-Mogg not realise the more they threaten the more people realise the necessity of the backstop?

Here's the thing about Jacob Rees-Mogg, he keeps coming up with these theories and paranoid ideas that are cuckoo.
Also, he keeps quoting that WTO GATT Article 24 paragraph as some kind of silver bullet for the UK in the event of no deal. He claims that the UK can continue to trade tariff free with the EU for 10 years after a no deal because of article 24.
The only problem is that all EU27 countries and 164 WTO countries have a veto on it happening. Why would the EU27 accept 10 more years of UK cherry-pickery after they have spent 2 years negotiating Mays deal? And Why would the USA accept the UK having a more preferable deal with the EU than they have? And Japan, China, Canada etc the same? And it rides roughshod over the Irish border question as the WTO will not allow a soft border for the 10 years of tariff free trade with the EU. Unicorns.

Irish Praetorian

lawred2 wrote: »

That's about 1 out of every 20 or so

The US figure was for 1 out of every 6

Bear in mind the WHO's 'European' region stretches from Iberia to Vladivostok and includes Turkey, totalling about 881 million people in 53 countries. That's a death rate of 1 per 176,000 of population compared with the US 1 in 125,000. So that is close but remember, were including Turkey and Russia aswell as the 'Stans here.

Irish Praetorian

CelticRambler wrote: »

The death rates in the US in just about every category are horrendous compared to the rest of the civilised world. They are (without exaggeration) in the same league as many Third World countries when it comes to the death rates of mothers in childbirth. From what I've read on the subject, it all comes down to the accessibility and affordability of healthcare - something about which Brexit Britain may have to make some hard choices in the coming years.

I can buy that quite easily, but I think in this context there is a reasonable argument to be made that lax food standards (compared to our own) are also an important factor, and quite relevant for a UK considering where to buy its food from in the future.

CelticRambler

CelticRambler wrote: »

Here we go: Back May’s deal, then hold people’s vote



Well, that sounds like something that someone's put a bit of though into ... but I'm not sure Theresa's May's word is any kind of a guarantee anymore.

Well, that's rather very sensible.

So it definitely won't happen.

Inquitus

Deleted User wrote: »

Well, that's rather very sensible.

So it definitely won't happen.

Be nice if it did, but I concur, far too much common sense and country before party required.

briany

Inquitus wrote: »

Be nice if it did, but I concur, far too much common sense and country before party required.

I'd like to think that at some stage, the reality of what could otherwise unfold will compel MPs throughout the HoC to act on something like this.

I'd like to think that.

What's the parliamentary arithmetic on Leave vs Remain in the HoC at the moment? If you discarded party politics and had a vote on those lines instead, what's the chances that Remain would win it?

prawnsambo

10000maniacs wrote: »

Here's the thing about Jacob Rees-Mogg, he keeps coming up with these theories and paranoid ideas that are cuckoo.
Also, he keeps quoting that WTO GATT Article 24 paragraph as some kind of silver bullet for the UK in the event of no deal. He claims that the UK can continue to trade tariff free with the EU for 10 years after a no deal because of article 24.
The only problem is that all EU27 countries and 164 WTO countries have a veto on it happening. Why would the EU27 accept 10 more years of UK cherry-pickery after they have spent 2 years negotiating Mays deal? And Why would the USA accept the UK having a more preferable deal with the EU than they have? And Japan, China, Canada etc the same? And it rides roughshod over the Irish border question as the WTO will not allow a soft border for the 10 years of tariff free trade with the EU. Unicorns.

It's even more strict than that. Both parties have to be working towards a customs union or free-trade area. And both have to agree that that's what they are negotiating. A free-trade area is pretty much a single market. Both of which of course, the UK has specifically ruled out.

briany

10000maniacs wrote: »

Here's the thing about Jacob Rees-Mogg, he keeps coming up with these theories and paranoid ideas that are cuckoo.
Also, he keeps quoting that WTO GATT Article 24 paragraph as some kind of silver bullet for the UK in the event of no deal. He claims that the UK can continue to trade tariff free with the EU for 10 years after a no deal because of article 24.
The only problem is that all EU27 countries and 164 WTO countries have a veto on it happening. Why would the EU27 accept 10 more years of UK cherry-pickery after they have spent 2 years negotiating Mays deal? And Why would the USA accept the UK having a more preferable deal with the EU than they have? And Japan, China, Canada etc the same? And it rides roughshod over the Irish border question as the WTO will not allow a soft border for the 10 years of tariff free trade with the EU. Unicorns.

Jacob Rees Mogg has no expectation that the UK will try any tricks with the WTO. He's banking on the EU forcing Ireland to erect border controls after a no-deal, and very soon afterward at that.

The moment Ireland does erect any kind of border control, whether it be in a piecemeal fashion or not, Mogg and co. will be claiming, "Ireland breached the GFA by putting up a border and after all their crying about it being so important not to. Guess they have to obey their EU masters. Well, no use crying over spilled milk now. Might as well put our own border up as well."

That's the strategy. How will Ireland and the EU deal with it?

Kermit.de.frog

Anyone have a fuller piece of this article? It's about Junckers card.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/09/junckers-irish-thank-card-yet-another-crass-insult-britain-has/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

Inquitus

briany wrote: »

That's the strategy. How will Ireland and the EU deal with it?

If it goes that way we will have to put up a border, it won't be our fault but we can't have an unmanned border with a 3rd country. We'll deal with it under international and EU law as we will have no other choice.

Inquitus

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Anyone have a fuller piece of this article? It's about Junckers card.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/09/junckers-irish-thank-card-yet-another-crass-insult-britain-has/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget

Relevant snippet of the article, what sort of tossers do they have writing for that paper these days, sigh!

Anglo-Irish relations have seen better days. They hit a new low this week when the smirking Irish Taoiseach was shown by EU president Jean-Claude Juncker a “thank you” card, apparently from an Irish family, which declared: “Britain does not care about peace in Northern Ireland.”

Tell that to the families of the thousands killed and wounded in the conflict.

Britain peaceably absorbed this utterly crass gesture without fanning the flames of outrage, as it has absorbed every Irish insult throughout the process. Still, it’s hard to swallow the double standard.

This week, Der Spiegel magazine cited German MEP Elmar Brok as stating that the integrity of the EU single market is much more important than peace in Northern Ireland.

In the event of a no deal, he said, the EU would force Ireland to put up a border because Germans fear American chlorinated chicken more than they care about “civil war” on the island of Ireland. This is someone who really “doesn’t care” about peace. Yet this story caused not a ripple of complaint in Ireland.

We are supposed to go on believing that the EU is, as Donald Tusk says, first and foremost “a peace project”.

briany

Inquitus wrote: »

If it goes that way we will have to put up a border, it won't be our fault but we can't have an unmanned border with a 3rd country. We'll deal with it under international and EU law as we will have no other choice.

If Ireland and the EU has no other choice, I suppose JRM will be very happy.

tuxy

The Sun UK headline

"Arrogant Irish PM Varadkar boasts ‘I am the EU’ ahead of crunch Brexit showdown with Theresa May"

The UK papers are now latching on to anything they can find offensive, in fairness they know their audience

Nate--IRL--

briany wrote: »

If Ireland and the EU has no other choice, I suppose JRM will be very happy.

It doesn't matter if JRM is happy or not. It doesn't change anything, other than allow him to continue to be disingenuous about the whole Border issue.

If there is no Deal there is a Border.

Nate

briany

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

It doesn't matter if JRM is happy or not. It doesn't change anything, other than allow him to continue to be disingenuous about the whole Border issue.

If there is no Deal there is a Border.

Nate

But it plays right into JRM's strategy. You're right in saying there will be a border in a no-deal, and I think it's true that both sides will have to do so, but neither wants to be the first.

JRM and the ERG are hoping that Ireland will be compelled by the EU to put one up sooner than later. Sooner than the UK, at the least. If this comes to pass, it perfectly suits ERG rhetoric. It's a great political point for them to score in the immediate aftermath of a no-deal, to say that the EU really was just using the NI issue as a bargaining chip the whole time. It also means the UK can put up their own border without facing the same international criticism.

And the UK won't be able to put up a border on day one, anyway, so it's not even a case of them just cynically hanging back and seeing what the EU do. It was admitted that they'll have to wave lorries coming in from the EU because the systems are just not in place to suddenly start checking everything. All they really have to do is wait for the Irish government to start putting in any kind of checks, and they can begin about their own work of putting in checks north of the border, as well as systems in place for the other EU routes, and then they won't have to deal with the question of trade deals being scuppered due to having an open border with the EU.

ThePanjandrum

Inquitus wrote: »

Relevant snippet of the article, what sort of tossers do they have writing for that paper these days, sigh!

That's the whole of the article as it relates to the card.

Quite honestly it was a pretty poor publicity stunt by the marketing manager and would only have hardened feelings in the UK.

Also, the Telegraph is paywalled so posting the whole of articles does risk a breach of copyright action against this site. That's why I restricted the amount I posted last night.

Would you agree, Mods?

ThePanjandrum

briany wrote: »

But it plays right into JRM's strategy. You're right in saying there will be a border in a no-deal, and I think it's true that both sides will have to do so, but neither wants to be the first.

They don't have to, a hard border would come about only if one or both of the countries decided to have one.

What about current checks?

Junkyard Tom

briany wrote: »

It was admitted that they'll have to wave lorries coming in from the EU because the systems are just not in place to suddenly start checking everything.

There'd probably be some sort of emergency agreement to facilitate the flow of goods, for a period of time, but with enough disruption so that it would cause absolute chaos in Britain.

Nate--IRL--

briany wrote: »

But it plays right into JRM's strategy.

Who cares? It doesn't affect the outcome. It simply allows him and his ilk to engage in some pearl clutching.

The optics of the situation being played out in the UK media is not our concern. Internationally the situation will be seen for what it is.

Also I suspect in the event of a no Deal the border issue will be dwarfed by more pressing issues for the UK on Brexit day.

Nate

ThePanjandrum

10000maniacs wrote: »

The only problem is that all EU27 countries and 164 WTO countries have a veto on it happening.

No, they don't. It would only be the EU and UK (the EU as a single customs territory) who would agree and submit the agreement to the WTO. The WTO may impose conditions but this would not prevent it happening.

The difference between a customs union and free trade area is that while the customs union is a type of free trade area, it has common external tariffs.

Capt'n Midnight

Even with the CTA the UK is no longer as attractive to us as it used to be.


CBI chief economist Rain Newton-Smith said: "Since the [Brexit] referendum, the UK has become a less attractive place to work.

Interest from Ireland and Poland in UK jobs has declined in the three years to December, relative to those searching from other countries, according to Indeed.

Irish and Polish jobseekers' share of searches on the UK website decreased by 50.5% and 17.1%.

...
According to the data from Indeed, the number of clicks from other European countries on UK construction job listings has nearly halved over the past few years.