Car bomb has exploded in Derry City Centre

22-01-2019 03:19PM

seamus wrote: »

How can there be a compromise?

We want a guarantee that there will never be a hard border. The UK refuses to guarantee that.

That's it. Someone has to give. And seeing as it's the UK who wants to renege on their international agreements, it's up to them to back down.

what international treaties are the UK reneging on?

seamus · 22-01-2019 03:20PM

Aegir wrote: »

what international treaties are the UK reneging on?

Lisbon Treaty. Good Friday Agreement. You do know what leaving the EU entails, right. You do know what the EU is? You have heard of the Good Friday Agreement?

22-01-2019 03:23PM

seamus wrote: »

Lisbon Treaty. Good Friday Agreement. You do know what leaving the EU entails, right. You do know what the EU is? You have heard of the Good Friday Agreement?

Which bit of either treaty are they reneging on?

seamus · 22-01-2019 03:37PM

renege
/rɪˈneɪɡ,rɪˈniːɡ/
verb
go back on a promise, undertaking, or contract.
"the government had reneged on its election promises"
synonyms: default on, fail to honour, go back on, break, back out of, pull out of, withdraw from, retreat from, welsh on, backtrack on; More
another term for revoke (sense 2).
ARCHAIC
renounce or abandon.

You see, there was this thing in the UK where they asked people if they wanted to leave the EU. And most people said yes. So the UK gave the EU notice that they were going to withdraw from the EU. Which means revoking the Lisbon Treaty (which is for all intents and purposes a contract between countries) and backing out their membership of the EU.

Of course, since international trading rules indirectly require the setting up of a border between countries which do not have a stated trading relationship, this poses an issue for the Good Friday Agreement. The Good Friday Agreement was another undertaking of the Irish and British governments which included several points related to co-operation North and South such as birthright and economic and political co-operation.
These are all things that would be made very difficult, potentially impossible by the introduction of a hard border between the two jurisdictions, andt thus a hard border would constitute a failure to honour the agreement.

Thus, the Irish government is looking for a guarantee, that regardless of whatever else may happen, that a hard border will not exist on the island, and if all else fails, there will be a failsafe process that will keep things ticking over until a new arrangement can be made.

The UK refuses to provide this guarantee. They want the freedom to be able to pull out of any agreement that is made, erect a hard border, and renege on their obligations under the GFA.

Clear enough for you?

22-01-2019 03:53PM

seamus wrote: »

You see, there was this thing in the UK where they asked people if they wanted to leave the EU. And most people said yes. So the UK gave the EU notice that they were going to withdraw from the EU. Which means revoking the Lisbon Treaty (which is for all intents and purposes a contract between countries) and backing out their membership of the EU.

so despite spending the past year pontificating about Brexit, you haven't once heard about Article 50 of the Treaty for the European Union? The section of the treaty (sometimes referred to as the Lisbon Treaty) which allows for a country to legally withdraw from the european union if they so wish?

The UK isn't reneging on the Lisbon Treaty, it is fully complying with it.

So, you're wrong there Seamus

1/10 must try harder

seamus wrote: »

Of course, since international trading rules indirectly require the setting up of a border between countries which do not have a stated trading relationship, this poses an issue for the Good Friday Agreement. The Good Friday Agreement was another undertaking of the Irish and British governments which included several points related to co-operation North and South such as birthright and economic and political co-operation.
These are all things that would be made very difficult, potentially impossible by the introduction of a hard border between the two jurisdictions, andt thus a hard border would constitute a failure to honour the agreement.

The UK government has repeated time and time again that they don't want a hard border in Ireland and will do all it can to prevent it.

There is nothing in the GFA that says that there can't be a hard (ish) border though.

I agree, it puts pressure on the GFA, but in no way oes this constitute the UK reneging on it.

2/10 good effort, but wrong.

seamus wrote: »

Thus, the Irish government is looking for a guarantee, that regardless of whatever else may happen, that a hard border will not exist on the island, and if all else fails, there will be a failsafe process that will keep things ticking over until a new arrangement can be made.

the Irish government wants a guarantee because it would be totally incapable of managing a hard border. If they for one minute thought that this constituted a breach of the GFA, they they would haul the UK government in front of the UN, would they not?

seamus wrote: »

The UK refuses to provide this guarantee. They want the freedom to be able to pull out of any agreement that is made, erect a hard border, and renege on their obligations under the GFA.

Clear enough for you?

they want the freedom to negotiate. What the existing back stop meant was that the EU had no reason to negotiate with the UK. The UK was tied in to all eu conventions and rules until such a time as the eu decided it wasn't.

Personally, I think the UK government should have signed it, but I can understand why they did not. What the UK and EU should have done, is agreed what the future trading relationship would look like and then work out the best way to transition to that. Instead, we've spent two years arguing about something that may never have been an issue if the negotiations had been done properly.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 22-01-2019 03:54PM

seamus wrote: »

How can there be a compromise?

We want a guarantee that there will never be a hard border. The UK refuses to guarantee that.

That's it. Someone has to give. And seeing as it's the UK who wants to renege on their international agreements, it's up to them to back down.

you sound like the small guy in an argument who thinks he's got a few big blokes to protect him.

seamus · 22-01-2019 04:00PM

Aegir wrote: »

The UK government has repeated time and time again that they don't want a hard border in Ireland and will do all it can to prevent it.

Except guarantee that it won't happen.

If the UK don't want a hard border, they'd agree to the backstop.

But they won't do that, because the UK is incapable of entering into an agreement where it doesn't have the upper hand.

They won't agree to the backstop, therefore any claim that they will do "all they can" to prevent a hard border is demonstrably wrong. Because they refuse to do "all they can".

Wheres Me Jumper? · 22-01-2019 04:04PM

seamus wrote: »

Except guarantee that it won't happen.

If the UK don't want a hard border, they'd agree to the backstop.

But they won't do that, because the UK is incapable of entering into an agreement where it doesn't have the upper hand.

They won't agree to the backstop, therefore any claim that they will do "all they can" to prevent a hard border is demonstrably wrong. Because they refuse to do "all they can".

and what if there's a no deal Brexit and the EU instruct us to implement the border that will inevitably emerge?

and we refuse. who will be reneging on their commitments then?

seamus · 22-01-2019 04:09PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

and what if there's a no deal Brexit and the EU instruct us to implement the border that will inevitably emerge?

and we refuse. who will be reneging on their commitments then?

We won't refuse because we have no choice. We can't just say, "Ah, it'll be grand, don't worry about that open trading border there, sure there's nothing going across it".

And either will the UK if they want to retain any hope of saving their economy and making trade deals with the rest of the planet.

Both countries will then need to reopen discussions on trying to fix the situation and honour the GFA before the extremists on the North side of the border start blowing the sh1t out of each other again.

22-01-2019 04:12PM

seamus wrote: »

Except guarantee that it won't happen.

If the UK don't want a hard border, they'd agree to the backstop

You do know that the UK government put forward legislation that would provide that guarantee, but it was voted down, don't you?

Of course you do :rolleyes:

seamus · 22-01-2019 04:13PM

Aegir wrote: »

You do know that the UK government put forward legislation that would provide that guarantee, but it was voted down, don't you?

Of course you do :rolleyes:

Voted down...by the UK.

ittakestwo · 22-01-2019 04:16PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

well despite Leo's denial we are in line for a border on this island. i've been saying this all along, but the remainers that populate these boards don't like hearing that.

i see no other way through this, so long as our Govt. refuses to compromise and soften their Backstop stance. Threesa may have painted herself into a corner, but so have we!

But the EU are on our side regarding the border. They are basically saying to the UK you are not getting a deal from us that involves a hard border in Ireland. The EU economy is six times the size of the UK so my money would be on the EU getting what they want. The bigger side usually gets what they want in negotiations.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 22-01-2019 04:17PM

seamus wrote: »

We won't refuse because we have no choice. We can't just say, "Ah, it'll be grand, don't worry about that open trading border there, sure there's nothing going across it".

And either will the UK if they want to retain any hope of saving their economy and making trade deals with the rest of the planet.

Both countries will then need to reopen discussions on trying to fix the situation and honour the GFA before the extremists on the North side of the border start blowing the sh1t out of each other again.

well somebody would need to tell Coveney that.
he seems to think that if he ignores the border, it will magically disappear. i think he's in for a bit of a shock dont you?

Wheres Me Jumper? · 22-01-2019 04:20PM

ittakestwo wrote: »

But the EU are on our side regarding the border. They are basically saying to the UK you are not getting a deal from us that involves a hard border in Ireland. The EU economy is six times the size of the UK so my money would be on the EU getting what they. The bigger side usually gets what they want in negotiations.

even the EU accepts, that in the event of a no-deal Brexit a hard border is inevitable.
dont attack me! i've been saying this since the vote went through, but like i said people do not like to accept it.

22-01-2019 04:21PM

seamus wrote: »

Voted down...by the UK.

the UK? I think you mean the UK parliament.

That's kind of the irony isn't it. The darlings of Ireland, Corbyn and Sturgeon, put the kibosh on the one deal that would prevent a hard border, yet apparantly it's all the fault of the conservative party.

ittakestwo wrote: »

But the EU are on our side regarding the border. They are basically saying to the UK you are not getting a deal from us that involves a hard border in Ireland. The EU economy is six times the size of the UK so my money would be on the EU getting what they want. The bigger side usually gets what they want in negotiations.

the alternative to not getting a deal, is no deal. No deal pretty much guarantees a hard border.

McMurphy · 22-01-2019 04:25PM

Aegir wrote: »

the alternative to not getting a deal, is no deal. No deal pretty much guarantees a hard border.

It will also pretty much guarantee the economic ruination of the UK.

22-01-2019 04:31PM

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

It will also pretty much guarantee the economic ruination of the UK.

that seems to be the Irish attitude at the moment, "so what if we end up in the ****, the UK will end up deeper in it".

no deal is a disaster for everyone.

steddyeddy · 22-01-2019 04:32PM

Aegir wrote: »

You do know that the UK government put forward legislation that would provide that guarantee, but it was voted down, don't you?

Of course you do :rolleyes:

Yes it was voted down by the UK which is voting down protections against a hard border which is endangering the Good Friday Agreement.

22-01-2019 04:33PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

Yes it was voted down by the UK which is voting down protections against a hard border which is endangering the Good Friday Agreement.

but Eddy, it was voted down by your wonderful Mr Corbyn, so it must have ben the right thing to do :rolleyes:

steddyeddy · 22-01-2019 04:33PM

Aegir wrote: »

the UK? I think you mean the UK parliament.

That's kind of the irony isn't it. The darlings of Ireland, Corbyn and Sturgeon, put the kibosh on the one deal that would prevent a hard border, yet apparantly it's all the fault of the conservative party.

the alternative to not getting a deal, is no deal. No deal pretty much guarantees a hard border.

And Mogg, Davis ect. It was also the Conservative party that caused the simplistic referendum and the same party whose foreign secretary was a chair leader for leave.

steddyeddy · 22-01-2019 04:34PM

Aegir wrote: »

but Eddy, it was voted down by your wonderful Mr Corbyn, so it must have ben the right thing to do :rolleyes:

Why do you keep mentioning Corbyn? What's he got to do with Ireland?

Wheres Me Jumper? · 22-01-2019 04:35PM

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

It will also pretty much guarantee the economic ruination of the UK.

true. it's like your colleague deciding to jump off a cliff which is kinda sad.
and then you realise there's a rope tieing both of you together! :eek:

ittakestwo · 22-01-2019 04:35PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

even the EU accepts, that in the event of a no-deal Brexit a hard border is inevitable.
dont attack me! i've been saying this since the vote went through, but like i said people do not like to accept it.

Economists believe a no deal brexit would be a disaster for the UK. May knows this and is why she desperately seeking a deal from the EU. It is still more likely they will take a deal on D day but if not then there will be both a hard border and a massive recession in the UK.

McMurphy · 22-01-2019 04:36PM

Aegir wrote: »

that seems to be the Irish attitude at the moment, "so what if we end up in the ****, the UK will end up deeper in it".

no deal is a disaster for everyone.

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

true. it's like your colleague deciding to jump off a cliff which is kinda sad.
and then you realise there's a rope tieing both of you together! :eek:

Completely agree, but a disaster of the UK's making.

El_Bee · 22-01-2019 04:40PM

I haven't read the entire thread, so I dunno if anyone has commented on this or not, but are we still entertaining the fantasy that these groups represent any kind of "cause", they're criminal gangs with access to explosives and weapons, they run drugs, stolen goods, agri diesel etc. and are linked to criminal gangs in the republic, they don't believe in anything besides lining their own pockets, and are piping up now because a hard border would make the above activities more difficult.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 22-01-2019 04:42PM

ittakestwo wrote: »

Economists believe a no deal brexit would be a disaster for the UK. May knows this and is why she desperately seeking a deal from the EU. It is still more likely they will take a deal on D day but if not then there will be both a hard border and a massive recession in the UK.

yes and if/when that happens and little old rep of ireland is seen as the akward, stubborn little so & so, then they will shove a Hard Border so far up Leo's Backstop his eyes will water.

ittakestwo · 22-01-2019 04:48PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

yes and if/when that happens and little old rep of ireland is seen as the akward, stubborn little so & so, then they will shove a Hard Border so far up Leo's Backstop his eyes will water.

All at the expense of their economy's GDP dropping by about 10%...They are not going to do a no deal and have a disaster just to say well at least Leo did not get what he wanted.

Wheres Me Jumper? · 22-01-2019 05:00PM

ittakestwo wrote: »

All at the expense of their economy's GDP dropping by about 10%...They are not going to do a no deal and have a disaster just to say well at least Leo did not get what he wanted.

i agree Brexit will seriously impact on their economy. but a lot of it is ideologically driven and it seems many of them are prepared to "jump off that cliff".

if i were Leo i would be using his back channels (he's probably already doing so) to see what compromise Arlene & friends will swallow that will satisfy all parties.
just spouting off NO BORDER is not going to cut it imo.

ohnonotgmail · 22-01-2019 05:02PM

El_Bee wrote: »

I haven't read the entire thread, so I dunno if anyone has commented on this or not, but are we still entertaining the fantasy that these groups represent any kind of "cause", they're criminal gangs with access to explosives and weapons, they run drugs, stolen goods, agri diesel etc. and are linked to criminal gangs in the republic, they don't believe in anything besides lining their own pockets, and are piping up now because a hard border would make the above activities more difficult.

I think that is probably quite a harsh view of the Tory party.

ittakestwo · 22-01-2019 05:03PM

Wheres Me Jumper? wrote: »

i agree Brexit will seriously impact on their economy. but a lot of it is ideologically driven and it seems many of them are prepared to "jump off that cliff".

if i were Leo i would be using his back channels (he's probably already doing so) to see what compromise Arlene & friends will swallow that will satisfy all parties.
just spouting off NO BORDER is not going to cut it imo.

I disagree. I think we should still be shooting no border... I think its the first time in history Ireland has the UK by the balls.

Car bomb has exploded in Derry City Centre

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