Brexit Discussion Thread VI

Capt'n Midnight · 18-01-2019 08:27PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

There's little to stop Eastern Europeans flying into Ireland then crossing into the North and then on to the UK mainland and then working in the black economy or just ending up homeless as many of them now are.

The current rules allow the UK to deport unemployed EU citizens with no means of support after six months or so.

New UK laws put the onus on employers to handle illegal workers.

Capt'n Midnight · 18-01-2019 08:43PM

Silent Running wrote: »

Well, the one that requires least work is a crash out no deal. It requires absolutely nothing to be done. Just wait out the clock.

The easiest option is retracting Article 50
It requires one vote and a letter.

Hard Brexit requires lots of laws being passed and doing trade deals with 70+ countries. And subsidies of 3 billion a year to farmers in a shrinking economy , if they keep that promise that is. And a whole host of other stuff to keep the lights on and planes in the air and food and medicine in the shops.

After the EU the US is the second biggest customer for UK car exports.
https://www.france24.com/en/20190118-eu-sets-out-plans-limited-us-trade-deal-0

The EU pressed on Friday with plans to forge a trade deal with the US, part of an effort -- backed by Germany -- to avert a trade war with President Donald Trump.

Negotiating a deal was the key to a transatlantic truce secured last year after the US slapped tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from the EU and others, alarming the world.

The effort is also part of a strategy to stop Trump from slapping damaging duties on car imports from Europe, a danger that has especially unnerved Berlin.

prawnsambo · 18-01-2019 08:45PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

I disagree

We already know that any post Brexit declined will be the explained away as evil EU punishing the British people for their cheek in wanting democracy or some such shite or for "winning WWII" or some such variation.

They'll get a few years out of that.

They won't get that long. When the promised trade deals fail to materialise, jobs start going, factories closing and inflation hits double digits, it will take some contortions to blame the EU. I'm sure they'll try, but those who told them that these would be the outcomes won't be quiet.

First Up · 18-01-2019 09:03PM

Bambi wrote:

There is no way to "force" a UI

I'd go further; I would want the unionist community to apply to join - and then think about it.

We have more than enough to be getting on with in redrawing our political, economic and trading systems to be bothered with humouring them.

prawnsambo · 18-01-2019 09:53PM

First Up wrote: »

I'd go further; I would want the unionist community to apply to join - and then think about it.

We have more than enough to be getting on with in redrawing our political, economic and trading systems to be bothered with humouring them.

Ah, it's a bit like brexit tbf. There are unionists and there are UNIONISTS. The latter are pretty much in the minority. The DUP have support from both by default, but if the UUP got their act together the DUP would fade into the background. There actions over the last year or so have pretty much alienated the more moderate unionists and I suspect there will be a backlash.

First Up · 18-01-2019 10:00PM

prawnsambo wrote:

Ah, it's a bit like brexit tbf. There are unionists and there are UNIONISTS. The latter are pretty much in the minority. The DUP have support from both by default, but if the UUP got their act together the DUP would fade into the background. There actions over the last year or so have pretty much alienated the more moderate unionists and I suspect there will be a backlash.

Its pretty obvious that the staunchest "unionists" hate the ROI more than they love the UK. The OWC (our wee country) slogan and mentality illustrates that.

I'd be in no rush to try to lure them into a UI. They'd be an even bigger pain in the ass than the UK has been in the EU.

bilston · 18-01-2019 10:03PM

First Up wrote: »

Its pretty obvious that the staunchest "unionists" hate the ROI more than they love the UK. The OWC (our wee country) slogan and mentality illustrates that.

I'd be in no rush to try to lure them into a UI. They'd be an even bigger pain in the ass than the UK has been in the EU.

The Our Wee Country slogan illustrates pride in Northern Ireland. It has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the Republic of Ireland.

First Up · 18-01-2019 10:07PM

bilston wrote:

The Our Wee Country slogan illustrates pride in Northern Ireland. It has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with the Republic of Ireland.

Or the "united" Kingdom???

10000maniacs · 18-01-2019 10:10PM

First Up wrote: »

prawnsambo wrote:

Ah, it's a bit like brexit tbf. There are unionists and there are UNIONISTS. The latter are pretty much in the minority. The DUP have support from both by default, but if the UUP got their act together the DUP would fade into the background. There actions over the last year or so have pretty much alienated the more moderate unionists and I suspect there will be a backlash.

Its pretty obvious that the staunchest "unionists" hate the ROI more than they love the UK. The OWC (our wee country) slogan and mentality illustrates that.

I'd be in no rush to try to lure them into a UI. They'd be an even bigger pain in the ass than the UK has been in the EU.

In a United Ireland scenario they would have little choice than to smell the coffee, buckle down, behave and do what the Irish do.

First Up · 18-01-2019 10:13PM

10000maniacs wrote:

In a United Ireland scenario they would have little choice than to smell the coffee, buckle down, behave and do what the Irish do.

If only. I'd expect years of civil disobedience - or worse.

Zubeneschamali · 18-01-2019 10:17PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Spot any red lines ?

I see several of Mays red lines, but she just got beaten in parliament by 230 votes. Her red lines are history.

Capt'n Midnight · 18-01-2019 10:18PM

mrbrianj wrote: »

You'd have to laugh at the 'German cars' line - do they realise that the UK sell just as many back into the EU?

A car parts plant in Wales closed recently. If more close then UK cars will have to use foreign parts and may no longer classify as "UK" and so face full WTO tariffs. Germany has 100 production sites in the UK.

BTW Rolls Royce only sold about 400 cars in the UK last year and are German owned. Like I posted earlier Greely are starting to make Lotus in China. Almost all of the "UK" car industry is foreign owned. Decisions are made abroad.

June 23, 2016
German auto industry warns Brexit could lead to production shift

October 17, 2016
German car industry warns UK that 'hard Brexit' could trigger shift south

“The UK is an important market for the German car industry, but the cohesion of the EU27 and with it the single market is more important for this industry,” he said.

10000maniacs · 18-01-2019 10:19PM

First Up wrote: »

10000maniacs wrote:

In a United Ireland scenario they would have little choice than to smell the coffee, buckle down, behave and do what the Irish do.

If only. I'd expect years of civil disobedience - or worse.

I wouldn't think so. Obviously they would have a sizable percentage in the Dail but that would be their only leverage. Physical confrontation is out because they wouldn't have the numbers.

First Up · 18-01-2019 10:23PM

10000maniacs wrote:

I wouldn't think so. Obviously they would have a sizable percentage in the Dail but that would be their only leverage. Physical confrontation is out because they wouldn't have the numbers.

The Ulster Workers Council experience suggests some might have a different take on that.

FrancieBrady · 18-01-2019 10:27PM

First Up wrote: »

The Ulster Workers Council experience suggests some might have a different take on that.

That only worked because Unionists had all the key jobs and also had the help of the British Army. Those days are long gone.

Frank Bullitt · 18-01-2019 10:27PM

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1086229050224504833

Idiots unite!

Headshot · 18-01-2019 10:29PM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1086229050224504833

Idiots unite!

what was the story in the times?

MBSnr · 18-01-2019 10:57PM

Headshot wrote: »

what was the story in the times?

Paywall
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/dup-hints-at-backing-for-soft-brexit-to-remove-backstop-threat-2dn7r7wg7

L1011 · 18-01-2019 10:59PM

Headshot wrote: »

what was the story in the times?

Claims the DUP could support Norway+++ or whatever bloody stupid term is the current name from BRINO (itself not that far from being a bloody stupid term, of course)

Strazdas · 18-01-2019 11:01PM

MBSnr wrote: »

Paywall
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/ireland/dup-hints-at-backing-for-soft-brexit-to-remove-backstop-threat-2dn7r7wg7

Sounds plausible.....the DUP never had red lines on a hard Brexit or No Deal Brexit, bar maybe Sammy Wilson and Ian Paisley Jr

Prince William · 18-01-2019 11:13PM

Has anyone else noticed that anytime some nonentity in the UK calls for a second Brexit referendum rte put the story at the top of the news stories on the website as if it were the pm calling for it? When are those clowns in the D4 bubble going to realize that the British don't do politics like us paddies ?

Bit cynical · 18-01-2019 11:14PM

Fairly unlikely that there will be a second referendum much as we might want one for the UK. It is up to them, not us, and the main leaders are not calling for one. I would say the most likely at this point is some sort of Norway deal and/or extend A50.

wiggle16 · 18-01-2019 11:31PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Fairly unlikely that there will be a second referendum much as we might want one for the UK. It is up to them, not us, and the main leaders are not calling for one. I would say the most likely at this point is some sort of Norway deal and/or extend A50.

At this point I think it's over. There's no reason to extend Article 50. The EU would only extend it if there were something new and viable to be put on the table (like a second referendum) and even then they've made it quite clear they won't extend it beyond the EU elections in May. There's not enough time for the UK to put anything together between now and then, either in terms of a different deal or a second referendum or launching the entire population into space.

I could be wrong, but I don't think anything is going to change between now and 29/03/2019. I think what we're seeing now is what it's going to look like then.

Oh well.

Frank Bullitt · 18-01-2019 11:33PM

Theresa May has left European diplomats in a state of “disbelief” following a series of phone calls to EU leaders in which she made no change to her demands despite her Brexit plan being voted down by a 230-vote margin this week.

Senior EU diplomatic sources said that Mrs May’s unchanged stance was “greeted with incredulity” following a call with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday night.

A leisurely walk towards the apocalypse.

Bit cynical · 18-01-2019 11:34PM

wiggle16 wrote: »

At this point I think it's over. There's no reason to extend Article 50. The EU would only extend it if there were something new and viable to be put on the table (like a second referendum) and even then they've made it quite clear they won't extend it beyond the EU elections in May. There's not enough time for the UK to put anything together between now and then, either in terms of a different deal or a second referendum or launching the entire population into space.

I could be wrong, but I don't think anything is going to change between now and 29/03/2019. I think what we're seeing now is what it's going to look like then.

Oh well.

I should have said apply to extend A50. Whether or not the EU agree to it is another matter but with Merkel expressing hope that the UK eventually come back to the fold, I think more likely than one might imagine.

Bigus · 18-01-2019 11:37PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

I should have said apply to extend A50. Whether or not the EU agree to it is another matter but with Merkel expressing hope that the UK eventually come back to the fold, I think more likely than one might imagine.

Mairead mc Guinness saying on the late late show that the EU mightn't extend the time , mainly to stop ar5e holes like Farage getting back in from the UK in euro elections in May( no pun)

FrancieBrady · 18-01-2019 11:43PM

Bigus wrote: »

Mairead mc Guinness saying on the late late show that the EU mightn't extend the time , mainly to stop ar5e holes like Farage getting back in from the UK in euro elections in May( no pun)

Farce as it all is, I think it would be an unprecedented farce if they allow that to happen.
Have some balls EU (including Ireland) tell them it is over if they don't bite the bullet and take the offer.
Together we will survive this.

Capt'n Midnight · 18-01-2019 11:46PM

The view from Europe hasn't really changed much, except for the euorsceptics who are trying to change the system from within.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-commission-election/eu-says-britain-must-hold-european-elections-if-no-brexit-before-july-2-idUKKCN1PC1BF

EU Brexit negotiators are “watching the BBC and eating popcorn”, in the words of one of them,
....
Dutch conservative Esther de Lange: “Collectively, they don’t know what they want,” she said of watching the Commons in action. “But, boy, do they hold great speeches about it.”

....
Many also believe turmoil in Britain has dampened appetites to follow suit, with European voters warming to the Union and eurosceptic governments, such as in Italy, Hungary and Poland, stressing their criticisms of the EU do not presage an exit.

Capt'n Midnight · 18-01-2019 11:50PM

In other news the DUP continue to win hearts and minds.
Paisley Jr on another free trip at someone else's expense. A reminder to all Tory voters just who they are in bed with.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/01/18/ian-paisley-splashes-charitys-cash-whilst-tanaiste-goes-economy-to-new-york/

IAN Paisley billed a Belfast charity for almost £6,000 to fly first-class to a peace conference in New York.

Others travelling to the event from Ireland and Britain, including tánaiste Simon Coveney, flew in economy – more than 10 times cheaper in price.

David109 · 19-01-2019 12:38AM

Was watching Newsnight and the panel snaking around brexit when it came to me. Mrs May will cut the knot with an Election. Next thing Mark Urban and Katie Balls ( how I wish she could pronounce the letter T - private obsession) mentioned the same.

Now if the likes of self can come up with this too, what are the chances?

Brexit Discussion Thread VI

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