Share Picks 2019

littlevillage · 03-01-2019 12:01pm #1

No actual recommendations ....but just getting this Thread for 2019 started.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 03-01-2019 12:29pm

RGSE, solar shingle and traditional solar company. Trading at $.52, holding long here.

NIO, currently trading at $6.11, big drop since IPO day at over $9.

I think 2019 will continue to be a very turbulent year for the S&P favourites.

In a dream world, I would like to get in on AAPL @ $100, FB @ $100, and BA @ $230 ish.

bcklschaps · 03-01-2019 12:36pm

Davy Stock Brokers investment advice for 2019.

"Concerns about a slowdown in the Irish economy resulted in a significant derating in the valuation of Irish stocks – in excess of that experienced across wider
European markets. This has created a number of very attractive investment
opportunities in the Irish market for 2019, including

Bank of Ireland,
Glenveagh Properties,
Green REIT,
Dalata Hotel Group,
Irish Continental Group,
Cpl Resources,
Applegreen
Grafton Group.

Note - Political uncertainty in the UK will continue to drive asset price volatility until Brexit is resolved"

*All these companies are buying various services from Davy so advice should be taken with pinch of salt :-)

scheister · 03-01-2019 12:51pm

bcklschaps wrote: »

Davy Stock Brokers investment advice for 2019.

"Concerns about a slowdown in the Irish economy resulted in a significant derating in the valuation of Irish stocks – in excess of that experienced across wider
European markets. This has created a number of very attractive investment
opportunities in the Irish market for 2019, including

Bank of Ireland,
Glenveagh Properties,
Green REIT,
Dalata Hotel Group,
Irish Continental Group,
Cpl Resources,
Applegreen
Grafton Group.

Note - Political uncertainty in the UK will continue to drive asset price volatility until Brexit is resolved"

*All these companies are buying various services from Davy so advice should be taken with pinch of salt :-)

3 of these are in my portfolio as it is.

BOI fell around 30% in value last year so I can see why it might be a nice time to buy them but think brexit will be an issue here as i understand they have large exposure in the UK.

Applegreen finished the year up 10% but had a fall from 6.62 a share when they came back post merger (28 september) to finish the year on 6 a share.

Green fell 13.57% last year not the worst of the REITs Hiberna fell 18%. Think Green have some building due to finish this year and next i would see them as value but as a hold share for the next few years.

littlevillage · 03-01-2019 1:37pm

Yesterday was great for VKTX and VSTM ....need a few more days like that, to try to get back into the green.

Whats happening with A40 ? is it offically trading yet on the ASX ?

cefh17 · 03-01-2019 1:49pm

littlevillage wrote: »

Whats happening with A40 ? is it offically trading yet on the ASX ?

A40 is in trading halt until the 7th, they're not fully sure why, something to do with arrangements with an offtake partner

Jim2007 · 04-01-2019 2:59am

littlevillage wrote: »

Yesterday was great for VKTX and VSTM ....need a few more days like that, to try to get back into the green.

Whats happening with A40 ? is it offically trading yet on the ASX ?

I’d suggest you change the thread title to something like ‘betting on penny stocks’ or ‘trading on the kerb’ as that is what this is.

Put your money in this kind of crap and that is exactly where you will end up in the long term - in the red. Your stocks have no history, are easily manipulated and in the event of one doing well it can easily be acquired before you get full value. And of course even when one does do well it will do little to advance your wealth as you will have too many other penny stocks in the portfolio to consume the gain.

Supercell · 04-01-2019 10:32am

Staying away from UK/Irl stocks until Brexit has sorted itself out unless something seems extreme value.

My picks for the new year:

NOK, was $5.57 at close 03/01 (no current holdings, currently trading in an upwards channel with strong prospects, particularly in 5G space), looking for an entry around $5.40)

MU was $31.00 at close 03/01 (bought some at xmas at $29.01) - long term hold, memory prices low and expected to remain until second half this year, 3D XPoint looks very interesting. Market may have oversold to current levels. $31 area held strongly yesterday despite AAPL (which is a major customer) approx 10% fall.

UNFI was $11.00 at close 03/01, previously bought at $9.98 and sold (mistakenly) at $10.35, looking for reentry on this (technical analysis based), monitoring, may to have bottomed out as massive volume spike at last drop, fundamentals look solid seems to have be wildly oversold (IMO)

CLF ($7.63 at close 03/01), TA shows it trading in a downward channel since September however that channel is close to the longer term upward trend line (since 2016), Trump's dealings with China may well have a big bearing on it, from a TA point of view its interesting to watch.

Overall a lot will depend on the orange faced one's antics this year of course.

Cute Hoor · 04-01-2019 1:28pm

Fair play OP for starting the topic. I notice though that you aren't giving us the benefit of your own wisdom, leaving it to us other mugs to put our head on the block.

Anyway here's my guesses, all to make 10% at some stage during the year - should have done this yesterday when the target looked more achievable given today's green.

SAN.MC €4.10 (Target €4.51)
BUR.L £15.78 (Target £17.36)
MONC.MI €28.37 (Target €31.21)
RYA €10.41 (Target €11.46)
VOO $224.50 (Target $246.95)

A few of these will pay better than banks by way of dividend while I'm chewing the nails waiting.

Risks
Brexit
Yellow man and his mate in the Korean peninsula
The Ruskies & Ukranians
Known & Unknown Unknowns

Good luck to all for 2019, hopefully it will be better than 2018 from a stock market point of view.

canonball5 · 04-01-2019 2:58pm

Just started investing towards the last quarter of last year, so just like buying my house in 2008 I have impeccable timing for making investments.

So far I'm in,
3KF
PAVM
RGSE
RYA

I'm hoping to pick up some,
APL
FB
JD
BOI

littlevillage · 04-01-2019 6:50pm

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Fair play OP for starting the topic. I notice though that you aren't giving us the benefit of your own wisdom, leaving it to us other mugs to put our head on the block.

Yeah something like that.

Honestly, I'm sitting on my hands at present waiting for the dust to settle during this current bout of volatility. I have no particular stock picks...but these are my thoughts (distilled down from numerous sources, soo not just me looking at tea leaves) on the market in general.

Short term (between now and end of March) I think this might be a decent period of buying opportunites as I think when any kind of white smoke on a trade deal between US/China appears we will see big gains on US indices. A deal WILL be done and probably inside 6 months.

Also some kind of a fudge deal on Brexit will be made (even if the fudge is basically, the whole thing being postponed) which will see a serious bounce on FTSE & ISEQ (Mar/Apr)

Long term though (6+ months) , I would worry that stock markets in general are overpriced and will fall back to probably finish 2019 somewhere around where they are today or maybe a few % lower.

Instead of giving recommendations these are my most recent buy/sell transactions (in Month of December). Read into them what you will :P I basically took profits (in the case of Aryzta & Malin accepted the loss) and re-invested into what I deemed to be better value companies with good dividend cover or oversold.

Sold these

Aryzta iseq
Glanbia iseq
Malin iseq
Albemarle nyse

And bought these

Abbey iseq
Dalata iseq
Smurfit iseq
Mondi ftse
Aviva ftse

And lo and behold all my recent purchases are nicely in the green as of COB today which is a pleasant change :rolleyes:

retalivity · 04-01-2019 7:27pm

Green across the board today!

TiGeR KiNgS · 05-01-2019 12:46am

I would avoid the ISEQ like the plague until environment improves. Very exposed to Brexit and US market problems.

marno21 · 05-01-2019 4:23am

bcklschaps wrote: »

Davy Stock Brokers investment advice for 2019.

"Concerns about a slowdown in the Irish economy resulted in a significant derating in the valuation of Irish stocks – in excess of that experienced across wider
European markets. This has created a number of very attractive investment
opportunities in the Irish market for 2019, including

Bank of Ireland,
Glenveagh Properties,
Green REIT,
Dalata Hotel Group,
Irish Continental Group,
Cpl Resources,
Applegreen
Grafton Group.

Note - Political uncertainty in the UK will continue to drive asset price volatility until Brexit is resolved"

*All these companies are buying various services from Davy so advice should be taken with pinch of salt :-)

Glenveagh published today that they now have a landbank capable of delivering 11,850 units but they plan on building 725 in 2019, which is almost triple the 275 sales completed in 2018. Am I the only one that finds the amount of land they are taking on daft compared with the delivery of units? And that's assuming they are able to deliver the 725 units in 2019.

Diairist · 05-01-2019 9:59am

As described, Glenveagh makes no sense. Are the other big builders doing the same? Is the problem getting planning permission or are they planning for a future bubble?

HTB isn't working - the journal says half don't proceed. Applicant either can't afford to buy new or they try for a 2nd hand house.

OwlsZat · 06-01-2019 10:46pm

Diairist wrote: »

As described, Glenveagh makes no sense. Are the other big builders doing the same? Is the problem getting planning permission or are they planning for a future bubble?

HTB isn't working - the journal says half don't proceed. Applicant either can't afford to buy new or they try for a 2nd hand house.

I'd guess they don't want to build a lot of houses in case they would bring selling prices down.

AlmightyCushion · 06-01-2019 10:58pm

marno21 wrote: »

Glenveagh published today that they now have a landbank capable of delivering 11,850 units but they plan on building 725 in 2019, which is almost triple the 275 sales completed in 2018. Am I the only one that finds the amount of land they are taking on daft compared with the delivery of units? And that's assuming they are able to deliver the 725 units in 2019.

Probably just tying up land so no else can build on it but they're still ramping up their capacity to actually build on it.

drunkmonkey · 06-01-2019 11:44pm

Going to call Peugeot at current price it's the lower end of analysts forecasts, tipped it early last year and it did well then fell off a cliff to current levels. Target of €25. Annual results 26 Feb. Q3 showed good growth and the share price trend is pointing up. 5% gain last 30 days.

scheister · 07-01-2019 9:42am

OwlsZat wrote: »

I'd guess they don't want to build a lot of houses in case they would bring selling prices down.

I would agree with this. Normally you would look at selling more stock at lower price and see if it is more profitable then small sales at higher price.
The issue here would could flooding the market with new houses and make the margin to small to make it worth selling the housing.

On another side could it be a case they dont have the staff to build the larger quantity of housing.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 08-01-2019 3:09pm

So we are well and truly into the January Rally, most of my watchlist up almost 10% in the past 10 days.

Still reckon we aren't far off a 20% drop in the short term.

Anyone short anything ?

Cute Hoor · 09-01-2019 4:34pm

Cute Hoor wrote: »

SAN.MC €4.10 (Target €4.51)
BUR.L £15.78 (Target £17.36)
MONC.MI €28.37 (Target €31.21)
RYA €10.41 (Target €11.46)
VOO $224.50 (Target $246.95)

First one in, after 5 days

MONC.MI €28.37 (Target €31.21) - Reached €31.67 today

Mixed bag with the rest so far.

Underground · 09-01-2019 4:58pm

Dalata has climbed nicely for me in the last two weeks or so, up about 10%. That being said, I'm not touching anything else on the ISEQ.

littlevillage · 09-01-2019 5:23pm

Underground wrote: »

Dalata has climbed nicely for me in the last two weeks or so, up about 10%. That being said, I'm not touching anything else on the ISEQ.

Yeah got in on Dalata myself there in Nov. Happy enough with progress so far

Got out of IFG today at €1.61 made a small profit (think it could be a major casuality of a messy Brexit)

MrMusician18 · 10-01-2019 2:28pm

canonball5 wrote: »

Just started investing towards the last quarter of last year, so just like buying my house in 2008 I have impeccable timing for making investments.

So far I'm in,
3KF
PAVM
RGSE
RYA

I'm hoping to pick up some,
APL
FB
JD
BOI

Anyone in Pavm is in for a bad day today. Carpx delayed again, FDA requires clinical study.

Down 30% premarket

canonball5 · 10-01-2019 2:40pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Anyone in Pavm is in for a bad day today. Carpx delayed again, FDA requires clinical study.

Down 30% premarket

Just as i was about to be back in the green with them too.

PlanBee · 10-01-2019 3:05pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Anyone in Pavm is in for a bad day today. Carpx delayed again, FDA requires clinical study.

Down 30% premarket

pavm is a penny stock, better avoid to trade it, just imho

Skelet0n · 11-01-2019 8:49am

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Anyone in Pavm is in for a bad day today. Carpx delayed again, FDA requires clinical study.

Down 30% premarket

Hope nobody got robbed in that s/l raid on really no news. Lost the 15% it had gained in the run up in the end, mainly from people hoping for immediate approval which was unlikely. They have another device with double the potential market to carpx due to have news end of this month.
Provided they can start generating some kind of revenue stream where they don’t have to do an offering they should be fine.

jive · 11-01-2019 4:29pm

BLUE $117.34
ORTX $14.26

PlanBee · 12-01-2019 11:07am

My picks at least for a month:

UAA $ 19.67
HP $ 53.43

littlevillage · 15-01-2019 1:52pm

cefh17 wrote: »

A40 is in trading halt until the 7th, they're not fully sure why, something to do with arrangements with an offtake partner

A40 traded last night on ASX, probably Monday night as well. Down almost 12% though to $AUD 0.225

I suppose a bit of a negative correction to start with was inevitable due to the large number of shares that would be sloushing around waiting to be sold after the merger ....so this correction is strictly a technical overhang thing that will be sorted out after a few trading sessions. I wonder in fact is this a good time to buy some more ?

ct5amr2ig1nfhp · 15-01-2019 5:27pm

Datalex... wow :eek: More to drop I would imagine. Did Mr. Kennedy know what was going on before he jumped ship late last year? Burning through their cash, you'd wonder have they ever made any money?

littlevillage · 15-01-2019 6:47pm

Jasiah Tight Geese wrote: »

Datalex... wow :eek: More to drop I would imagine. Did Mr. Kennedy know what was going on before he jumped ship late last year? Burning through their cash, you'd wonder have they ever made any money?

Seen an article by Moneybags in the Phoenix magazine Jan 25 2018 regarding Datalex.

Title :- DATALEX INVESTORS EXPERIENCE SERIOUS TURBULENCE

he goes on to detail some of the unusual account practices they were using and surmises

"Major question marks hang over its accounting tactics which have significantly added to what looks like an overvaluation of the shares”

Looks like he got it, bang on :rolleyes:

I love a bargain better than the next guy, and when a share falls by 60% in one day I normally see re-bound possibilities ...but I will be steering clear of these guys until the auditors report back. This could be a complete shiite sandwich :cool:

littlevillage · 15-01-2019 7:02pm

On a completely different note anybody watching C&C ...up 23% in the last 2 & a half weeks. Something definitely going on.

Matthew Clark aquisition in 2018 is going really well apparently.... Year end is Feb ...results some time in April... they will be very good if not spectacular. Directors in the market buying the shares themselves (always a good sign)...and big fat 4.5% dividend to put the icing on the cake.

Risk is Brexit and Sterling jitters... but as I've said before on here, that will get sorted sooner or later and people will continue getting gargled :-)

bcklschaps · 15-01-2019 7:24pm

littlevillage wrote: »

a complete shiite sandwich :cool:

Well whatever Datalex had for lunch they fairly stank up the joint today

Thargor · 15-01-2019 8:01pm

littlevillage wrote: »

A40 traded last night on ASX, probably Monday night as well. Down almost 12% though to $AUD 0.225

I suppose a bit of a negative correction to start with was inevitable due to the large number of shares that would be sloushing around waiting to be sold after the merger ....so this correction is strictly a technical overhang thing that will be sorted out after a few trading sessions. I wonder in fact is this a good time to buy some more ?

It'll be the star of the Share Picks 2020 thread :pac:

scheister · 16-01-2019 9:46am

littlevillage wrote: »

Seen an article by Moneybags in the Phoenix magazine Jan 25 2018 regarding Datalex.

Title :- DATALEX INVESTORS EXPERIENCE SERIOUS TURBULENCE

he goes on to detail some of the unusual account practices they were using and surmises

"Major question marks hang over its accounting tactics which have significantly added to what looks like an overvaluation of the shares”

Looks like he got it, bang on :rolleyes:

I love a bargain better than the next guy, and when a share falls by 60% in one day I normally see re-bound possibilities ...but I will be steering clear of these guys until the auditors report back. This could be a complete shiite sandwich :cool:

I have gone at €1.05 with some loose money i had lying in my account. I dont see the price going much lower but at the price any sort of a semi decent rebound and i am happy. If it goes back to likes of €1.50/60 in medium term it would not be odd.

ct5amr2ig1nfhp · 16-01-2019 10:12am

Tempted to buy in myself but I am going to wait for the auditors to complete their audit. I expect the share price to tank further when we find out the extent of their dodgy accounting and reporting practices. They have burnt through a significant portion of their cash reserves already.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 16-01-2019 10:14am

In at 1.04 myself.

Bob Harris · 16-01-2019 10:37am

Jasiah Tight Geese wrote: »

Tempted to buy in myself but I am going to wait for the auditors to complete their audit. I expect the share price to tank further when we find out the extent of their dodgy accounting and reporting practices. They have burnt through a significant portion of their cash reserves already.

It reminds me a little of DIA supermarkets in Spain down 90% in a year.
Poor results were portrayed as postive and reality caught up a few months ago
and poor management exposed. It dropped to about 80c and didn't bounce back, down to around 46c now from about 4€ a year ago.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 16-01-2019 5:01pm

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

In at 1.04 myself.

Out at 1.18 for a 13.5% gain. Not bad for a days work. :pac:

scheister · 17-01-2019 9:53am

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Out at 1.18 for a 13.5% gain. Not bad for a days work. :pac:

up to 1.25 a share now

q85dw7osi4lebg · 17-01-2019 9:57am

scheister wrote: »

up to 1.25 a share now

It I hadn't sold it would be 0.95 haha. Took that one for the team.

cefh17 · 17-01-2019 10:09am

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

It I hadn't sold it would be 0.95 haha. Took that one for the team.

Martyr :pac:

littlevillage · 17-01-2019 1:14pm

scheister wrote: »

up to 1.25 a share now

€1.30 now. Fair play to anyone who had the cajhones to jump in on Tuesday at €1. Maybe a good time to bail out now with a 30% profit :cool:

Market seems to be taking a fairly benign view of the Financial gymnastics going on at Datalex. PWC is the auditor they have announced. Seeing as they are working on the Datalex dime ...whats the chances that the report will conclude with "Nothing untoward to see here folks, move on" :rolleyes:

ct5amr2ig1nfhp · 17-01-2019 2:02pm

Aren't PWC being sued on multiple fronts due to their auditing practices during the financial crash? They also stand over their audits of BOI, AIB etc, during the same time frame. :rolleyes:

I will have to check the volume of shares being traded. Is this a group pushing up the price to mask further problems?
Fair play though if you jumped in at 1 eur.

littlevillage · 17-01-2019 2:22pm

Jasiah Tight Geese wrote: »

Aren't PWC being sued on multiple fronts due to their auditing practices during the financial crash? They also stand over their audits of BOI, AIB etc, during the same time frame. :rolleyes:

I will have to check the volume of shares being traded. Is this a group pushing up the price to mask further problems?
Fair play though if you jumped in at 1 eur.

The reputation of financial auditors in general is dirt.

Didn't take a punt on Datalex myself. I lost my shirt on Aryzta and have learnt my lesson regarding catching falling knives :-)

vargoo · 17-01-2019 9:01pm

UK Regulators, Lawmakers Get Tough on ‘Poor Performance’ of Big 4 Auditing Firms

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2018/06/19/492655.htm

Nortus · 18-01-2019 10:43am

Thoughts on Flybe.L? Been watching it since the recent mammoth fall of 90%. Bought a nice chunk of stock yesterday morning and it was up 33% at close yesterday and up another 10% so far today. Although the company is in possible difficulty longterm (depending on brexit, 2nd round of funding, operating licences etc) but short term it seems to be way over sold. Scope for an increase of at least 40-50% over the next week IMHO..

q85dw7osi4lebg · 18-01-2019 11:12am

Back in on Ryanair at 9.85 after profit warning.

Cute Hoor · 18-01-2019 1:05pm

Nortus wrote: »

Thoughts on Flybe.L? Been watching it since the recent mammoth fall of 90%. Bought a nice chunk of stock yesterday morning and it was up 33% at close yesterday and up another 10% so far today. Although the company is in possible difficulty longterm (depending on brexit, 2nd round of funding, operating licences etc) but short term it seems to be way over sold. Scope for an increase of at least 40-50% over the next week IMHO..

Well done Nortus, I know nothing about them but that is a fabulous return in a couple of days, up 25% today. It might be worth taking out profit, you could get your initial investment back and still have significant stock, effectively free. With that sort of volatility there may be a chance to do a bit of short term trading as well. Well done!

Cute Hoor · 18-01-2019 1:05pm

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Back in on Ryanair at 9.85 after profit warning.

I'd expect this to pay off longer term

Share Picks 2019

Comments