Share Picks 2019

Kidkinobe

route9 wrote: »

Wow that’s looking very cheap...massive market and probably the leading player. Hmm...

This was in the paper today.
"Tesla is shifting all of its sales from stores to the internet, saying the move is needed to cut costs so it can sell the mass-market Model 3 for a starting price of US$35,000" Within the article was a statement from Elon.
" CEO Elon Musk has said its essential to Tesla's survival"
Elon obviously sensing a bit of competition which could take him down or simply running out of cash while trying to make headway into the Chinese market while Trump is nipping away at the heels of the Chinese Govt, which will be in the media 'American bad,Chinese good' Nio have some huge backers behind them with very deep pockets.
Think I have just talked myself into buying a few...

Pussyhands

Kidkinobe wrote: »

This was in the paper today.
"Tesla is shifting all of its sales from stores to the internet, saying the move is needed to cut costs so it can sell the mass-market Model 3 for a starting price of US$35,000" Within the article was a statement from Elon.
" CEO Elon Musk has said its essential to Tesla's survival"
Elon obviously sensing a bit of competition which could take him down or simply running out of cash while trying to make headway into the Chinese market while Trump is nipping away at the heels of the Chinese Govt, which will be in the media 'American bad,Chinese good' Nio have some huge backers behind them with very deep pockets.
Think I have just talked myself into buying a few...

Tesla can't compete with any chinese competitor I'd say? Won't Tesla have tarriffs etc while NIO won't.

There's room for both of them though you'd think.

Kidkinobe

Pussyhands wrote: »

Tesla can't compete with any chinese competitor I'd say? Won't Tesla have tarriffs etc while NIO won't.

There's room for both of them though you'd think.

Tesla are opening a factory in Shanghai later this year, to build the cars and the batteries. And of course there would be room for them both..But it will depend on Trump and his tariffs. The Chinese people are not as direct as western people. Trump would say 'up yours, that does not suit me' In retaliation, the Chinese would get the media to print how Tesla cars are unsafe to drive and just give them bad press or any American item that was sold to the Chinese would get bad press.
An example of this happened just recently in New Zealand, NZ relies strongly on the Chinese for their tourism dollar and the Chinese importing their food. NZs main sources of income is tourism and food and the Chinese are their largest market for both. Anyway, the NZ Govt had a jab at the Chinese Govt over their Huawei 5g network which was meant to roll out in NZ until USA said the 5g network was used by the Chinese to spy which led to NZ stalling the installation of the 5G network. Next thing media reports started to appear online in China how NZ was not a very safe country, bad drivers, lots of crime, muggings etc. These simple words in the media has led two Chinese airlines dumping their direct routes to and from NZ and NZs own airline down grading their profits as the Chinese have suddenly decided to drop NZ as a destination of choice. Also, food that was sent to China is made sit in ports as there suddenly seems to be a surge of new paper work from the Chinese to allow NZ goods off the ships. The food does get through at the very last minute but its just a little warning jab to NZ that if they cause trouble for China, China will cause bigger trouble for them by thrashing their economy.
OF course Im not saying the Chinese will isolate Tesla as one of the American made products that needs a hammering...But if the Chinese feel they are getting a bad deal from Trump, American imports/goods will feel the impact by a few simple words in the Chinese media.

Captainsatnav

Kidkinobe wrote: »

Tesla are opening a factory in Shanghai later this year, to build the cars and the batteries. And of course there would be room for them both..But it will depend on Trump and his tariffs. The Chinese people are not as direct as western people. Trump would say 'up yours, that does not suit me' In retaliation, the Chinese would get the media to print how Tesla cars are unsafe to drive and just give them bad press or any American item that was sold to the Chinese would get bad press.
An example of this happened just recently in New Zealand, NZ relies strongly on the Chinese for their tourism dollar and the Chinese importing their food. NZs main sources of income is tourism and food and the Chinese are their largest market for both. Anyway, the NZ Govt had a jab at the Chinese Govt over their Huawei 5g network which was meant to roll out in NZ until USA said the 5g network was used by the Chinese to spy which led to NZ stalling the installation of the 5G network. Next thing media reports started to appear online in China how NZ was not a very safe country, bad drivers, lots of crime, muggings etc. These simple words in the media has led two Chinese airlines dumping their direct routes to and from NZ and NZs own airline down grading their profits as the Chinese have suddenly decided to drop NZ as a destination of choice. Also, food that was sent to China is made sit in ports as there suddenly seems to be a surge of new paper work from the Chinese to allow NZ goods off the ships. The food does get through at the very last minute but its just a little warning jab to NZ that if they cause trouble for China, China will cause bigger trouble for them by thrashing their economy.
OF course Im not saying the Chinese will isolate Tesla as one of the American made products that needs a hammering...But if the Chinese feel they are getting a bad deal from Trump, American imports/goods will feel the impact by a few simple words in the Chinese media.

Jaysus. That's insidious enough carry on!

Cute Hoor

Cute Hoor wrote: »

MONC.MI €28.37 (Target €31.21)

Moncler up around 12% this morning on an excellent set of results and 2019 forecast, dividend up by 40%, SP now at €37.60

Supercell

Whats with all the hype about NIO here and elsewhere? I'm scratching my head about it, people seem to think only Tesla makes electric cars but the fact is all the major manufacturers are doing so or are actively developing models for that market, whats so different about NIO? Dont get me wrong, I'm delighted some of you on here are making money on NIO and obviously I'd like to make some too, but I really prefer to understand the USP of what I'm buying into and NIO doesnt seem to have one?
Could anyone care to explain why NIO is different? (other than the Chinese government probably giving them tax breaks etc) If its like any other Chinese car, I sure as heck wont be buying one anytime soon.

Kidkinobe

Supercell wrote: »

Whats with all the hype about NIO here and elsewhere? I'm scratching my head about it, people seem to think only Tesla makes electric cars but the fact is all the major manufacturers are doing so or are actively developing models for that market, whats so different about NIO? Dont get me wrong, I'm delighted some of you on here are making money on NIO and obviously I'd like to make some too, but I really prefer to understand the USP of what I'm buying into and NIO doesnt seem to have one?
Could anyone care to explain why NIO is different? (other than the Chinese government probably giving them tax breaks etc) If its like any other Chinese car, I sure as heck wont be buying one anytime soon.

Heres the pros and to be balanced, cons will be in the next post.
EV Demand. Chinese demand for EVs is expected to eclipse 1 million units this year, about half the world's total. That number will go to 5 million by 2025, propelled by government quotas and incentives.

Massive Luxury Market. Chinese consumers will buy twice as many luxury vehicles this year as Americans. Audi, Mercedes and BMW earn close to 40% of their global profits from China.

Performance Specs. The NIO ES8 comes with formidable performance chops. Zero to 60 in 4.4 seconds, just a whisker behind Tesla. The battery range is a respectable 240 miles on a full charge. NIO has also built a network of 3-minute battery swap stations.

Technology. The ES8 also features Nomi, the dash-mounted AI assistant that responds to voice commands. From behind the wheel last month, I said: "Hey, Nomi, open the sunroof 50%." The top window opened halfway and stopped. Impressive.

Price. The ES8 starts at $67,000. That's about half the cost of an imported Tesla Model X (after tariffs).

Backers: Early investors in NIO include Hillhouse Capital, Sequoia Capital and Tencent—powerhouses all. Founder William Li is a self-made billionaire who grew up in a rural town in hardscrabble Anhui province. He knows how to win.

Kidkinobe

Supercell wrote: »

Whats with all the hype about NIO here and elsewhere? I'm scratching my head about it, people seem to think only Tesla makes electric cars but the fact is all the major manufacturers are doing so or are actively developing models for that market, whats so different about NIO? Dont get me wrong, I'm delighted some of you on here are making money on NIO and obviously I'd like to make some too, but I really prefer to understand the USP of what I'm buying into and NIO doesnt seem to have one?
Could anyone care to explain why NIO is different? (other than the Chinese government probably giving them tax breaks etc) If its like any other Chinese car, I sure as heck wont be buying one anytime soon.

Cons and things to figure out.
Competitors. NIO is far ahead of where Tesla stood after its first four years. But Tesla enjoyed a grace period of zero competition in the EV arena. German automakers (and other Chinese EV startups) are preparing their own stunning new products for market launches in the coming months.

Scaling Up. Will NIO be able to rapidly increase production and sales? Tesla's painful experience at the Fremont, California, plant no doubt keeps NIO leaders awake at night. Then there is the sales challenge. NIO is going with a direct-to-mobile approach in lieu of dealers, which is unprecedented in the industry.

Allure: NIO is doing many smart and inventive things to build the brand, including its flagship NIO Houses in Shanghai and Beijing. Will they be compelling enough to win over Chinese buyers who love their BMWs, Mercedes and Audis?

WIN, PLACE OR (JUST) SHOW?

Some market commentators have recently been quite critical of NIO, suggesting that the company is heavy on "show" and light on substance. With any startup, there is always a place for healthy skepticism. But NIO has developed a remarkably competitive vehicle, replete with world-class technologies.

What rightly gives pause to investors is the needling question of how soon makers of electric cars can make a profit. Steadily declining battery prices suggest that day is coming sooner rather than later. This makes NIO look a little bit like a buy-low-now and sell-high-later opportunity.

The risks are there for sure. But as Clint Eastwood says: "If you want a guaranteed thing, buy a toaster."

Supercell

Thats a fantastic write up Kidkinobe many thanks for that.

You are correct to put the love of brands in the cons side. My wife is Chinese and trying to get her to buy a generic brand for even stuff like salt in the supermarket is a battle, she always wants the branded "reputable" item and i might as well be talking to the wall trying to convince her otherwise.

I think this is a common mindset there given the amount of fake product, even eggs can be fake!
Which brings me to one of the the main pros you have highlighted - the size of the market and burgeoning middle/upper class there. I have no doubt there is a massive, massive market there, but the young there absolutely love all things American in my experience. If Tesla gets its act together or maybe Ford comes out with a high spec electrical car Nio are going to have a battle on their hands.German stuff has a great reputation of high spec as well -my wife's uncle asked her to bring a Bosch drill over last time as he believed they made the best drills in the world and he wanted to be sure he got a genuine one.
I'm going to talk to my wife and think about it over the weekend before dipping in here. Thanks again for putting the time into writing those replies.

Kidkinobe

Supercell wrote: »

Thats a fantastic write up Kidkinobe many thanks for that.

You are correct to put the love of brands in the cons side. My wife is Chinese and trying to get her to buy a generic brand for even stuff like salt in the supermarket is a battle, she always wants the branded "reputable" item and i might as well be talking to the wall trying to convince her otherwise.

I think this is a common mindset there given the amount of fake product, even eggs can be fake!
Which brings me to one of the the main pros you have highlighted - the size of the market and burgeoning middle/upper class there. I have no doubt there is a massive, massive market there, but the young there absolutely love all things American in my experience. If Tesla gets its act together or maybe Ford comes out with a high spec electrical car Nio are going to have a battle on their hands.German stuff has a great reputation of high spec as well -my wife's uncle asked her to bring a Bosch drill over last time as he believed they made the best drills in the world and he wanted to be sure he got a genuine one.
I'm going to talk to my wife and think about it over the weekend before dipping in here. Thanks again for putting the time into writing those replies.

I guess I should have said it was a c/p from an article I found on the internet..I never heard of Nio until it was mentioned here and since the thread is about share tips I have been reading up on it since. Put a few hundy on it today, if it fails, no biggie. Added Nio to my news feed so will be kept up to date on the company and whether to keep on throwing a few hundy at it now and again or just bailing.

Pussyhands

NIO and Ryanair CHOO CHOO

q85dw7osi4lebg

Kidkinobe wrote: »

Cons and things to figure out.
Competitors. NIO is far ahead of where Tesla stood after its first four years. But Tesla enjoyed a grace period of zero competition in the EV arena. German automakers (and other Chinese EV startups) are preparing their own stunning new products for market launches in the coming months.

Scaling Up. Will NIO be able to rapidly increase production and sales? Tesla's painful experience at the Fremont, California, plant no doubt keeps NIO leaders awake at night. Then there is the sales challenge. NIO is going with a direct-to-mobile approach in lieu of dealers, which is unprecedented in the industry.

Allure: NIO is doing many smart and inventive things to build the brand, including its flagship NIO Houses in Shanghai and Beijing. Will they be compelling enough to win over Chinese buyers who love their BMWs, Mercedes and Audis?

WIN, PLACE OR (JUST) SHOW?

Some market commentators have recently been quite critical of NIO, suggesting that the company is heavy on "show" and light on substance. With any startup, there is always a place for healthy skepticism. But NIO has developed a remarkably competitive vehicle, replete with world-class technologies.

What rightly gives pause to investors is the needling question of how soon makers of electric cars can make a profit. Steadily declining battery prices suggest that day is coming sooner rather than later. This makes NIO look a little bit like a buy-low-now and sell-high-later opportunity.

The risks are there for sure. But as Clint Eastwood says: "If you want a guaranteed thing, buy a toaster."

You should proofread NIO's PR.

10/10.

Gruffalo22

The NIO article is here
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldunne/2018/09/13/nio-chinas-first-premium-ev-goes-public-how-to-play-it/

The same writer has an article on other Chinese EV startups

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldunne/2018/09/27/nio-cracks-the-nyse-whos-next/#1daa46d41b98

Cute Hoor

Looks like somebody knows something about NIO, earnings in the morning and down around 10% on day's high

Bob Harris

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Looks like somebody knows something about NIO, earnings in the morning and down around 10% on day's high

No doubt the luminaries on Stocktwits will put it down to MM's shaking out weak hands to hoover up cheap shares. Under 9.50 and dropping now after opening at 10.32 - there is something going on. If ER is poor and drops more I might get a handful.

littlevillage

Tesla getting a beating as well. $285 at the mo

Supercell

Bob Harris wrote: »

No doubt the luminaries on Stocktwits will put it down to MM's shaking out weak hands to hoover up cheap shares. Under 9.50 and dropping now after opening at 10.32 - there is something going on. If ER is poor and drops more I might get a handful.

I laughed! thanks

XMG

NIO was supposed to release earnings pre market?

Cute Hoor

XMG wrote: »

NIO was supposed to release earnings pre market?

Post market

Bob Harris

NIO down over 10% after ER.

Cute Hoor

Bob Harris wrote: »

NIO down over 10% after ER.

The SP is taking a right trimmin, those lads who were selling yesterday knew something.Had a couple of quick in and outs over the last couple of days.
Edit: Actually a fair bit of seesawing AH, a few bob to be made but you'd need balls of steel.

Pussyhands

Welp, down 17% AH

q85dw7osi4lebg

Bob Harris wrote: »

I jumped ship yesterday, was going to let it sit but got out at what I got in at.
I was reading about companies that get bumped down to OTC, a few but not many make it back. RGSE could well be one that does, it's really only about to get going but I'll watch from the sidelines.

Have to give it to Degiro they are very helpful.

q85dw7osi4lebg

NIO BEP 7.16

Easy back to 10+ in coming weeks or months.

Might pick up some more today.

Cute Hoor

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

NIO BEP 7.16

Easy back to 10+ in coming weeks or months.

Might pick up some more today.

Today looks like being a tough day, 8.4s at the moment pre-market, stocks often oversold on news, stabilise for a few days, and then start a gradual improvement. Will be interesting to see how this one develops. Best of luck with it.

littlevillage

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Today looks like being a tough day, 8.4s at the moment pre-market, stocks often oversold on news, stabilise for a few days, and then start a gradual improvement. Will be interesting to see how this one develops. Best of luck with it.

What price ye guys thinking of getting into NIO at? Its $8 now.

Bob Harris

littlevillage wrote: »

What price ye guys thinking of getting into NIO at? Its $8 now.

$8 is a fair enough price, I think it has mroe to drop though short term.
I'd be confident of it recovering however as the year goes on. Electric cars aren't the future they're the now. People will be buying them. A lot of people's first car will be electric. It's becoming the new norm.
They had sales of only 800 for one model in February but China is on shutdown for 2 or more weeks for the Chinese new year so hardly surprising they fell from January's levels. They'll be back on track for March as will the SP I think.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Bought more NIO at 8.30 then sold the lot at 8.50 after feeling the urge to take profits.

On the sidelines for now, complete U turn on my attitude towards it 24 hours ago.

Took a nice 18% BOI profit this morning too.


Current holdings:

Starbucks BEP 64.90
Ryanair BEP 10.41
RGSE BEP 0.51
HIVE BEP 1.31

Captainsatnav

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Bought more NIO at 8.30 then sold the lot at 8.50 after feeling the urge to take profits.

On the sidelines for now, complete U turn on my attitude towards it 24 hours ago.

Took a nice 18% BOI profit this morning too.


Current holdings:

Starbucks
Ryanair
RGSE
HIVE

HIVE killing me but have my BEP down to 1.09 from 1.72
Ryanair (BEP 16.60 so a bit off the green yet)
Square Enix (BEP 41 - mad swings almost daily on this for some reason)
Verastem - write off
Viking Therapeutics - BEP 14.16
EVR Holdings - write off
Barclays - BEP 213 - down about 22% but happy to hold.
Tarsus Group plc - saw this tipped in th Fin Times a few weeks ago - liked the sound of what the guy had to say. up 10%

Cute Hoor

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Bought more NIO at 8.30 then sold the lot at 8.50 after feeling the urge to take profits.

On the sidelines for now, complete U turn on my attitude towards it 24 hours ago.

I think you did well, looks like there might be volatility for a while

littlevillage

Captainsatnav wrote: »

HIVE killing me but have my BEP down to 1.09 from 1.72
Ryanair (BEP 16.60 so a bit off the green yet)
Square Enix (BEP 41 - mad swings almost daily on this for some reason)
Verastem - write off
Viking Therapeutics - BEP 14.16
EVR Holdings - write off
Barclays - BEP 213 - down about 22% but happy to hold.
Tarsus Group plc - saw this tipped in th Fin Times a few weeks ago - liked the sound of what the guy had to say. up 10%

I see Crypto's are having a pretty good few weeks. Up all over the place. Did they finaly bottom out ? Lost a few 100 on Bitcoin, but just thanking my lucky stars I didn't get carried away and go in heavy.

q85dw7osi4lebg

I was down 5200 on crypto at xmas, now only down 3800, hoping the recovery continues. Averaged down as much as I could, still in it for the long term though, so I'll either lose everything or reach.........the moon :pac:

Bob Harris

Captainsatnav wrote: »

HIVE killing me but have my BEP down to 1.09 from 1.72
Ryanair (BEP 16.60 so a bit off the green yet)
Square Enix (BEP 41 - mad swings almost daily on this for some reason)
Verastem - write off
Viking Therapeutics - BEP 14.16
EVR Holdings - write off
Barclays - BEP 213 - down about 22% but happy to hold.
Tarsus Group plc - saw this tipped in th Fin Times a few weeks ago - liked the sound of what the guy had to say. up 10%

I've averaged down here quite a bit. Results next week on the 12th so hopefully some decent sales and this can begin to climb out of the slump.
It's market cap is only about $250m and must surely be a buy out candidate.

Trish56

I have a very small holding in BGSE and received this email from Degiro yesterday and also saw my holding disappeared yesterday. Can anyone advise what is going on and what I should do.

Thanks

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Have to give it to Degiro they are very helpful.

stockshares

I'm interested in buying NIO on Degiro but I don't see a share price quoted for it. Why is that?

Also I purchased Tawana shares last year based on recommendations here. Does anyone know what happened to Tawana and why their shares are untradeable on Degiro.

Thank you

Bob Harris

stockshares wrote: »

I'm interested in buying NIO on Degiro but I don't see a share price quoted for it. Why is that?

Also I purchased Tawana shares last year based on recommendations here. Does anyone know what happened to Tawana and why their shares are untradeable on Degiro.

Thank you

There's a thread on Tawana here, bought out I think.

I don't know why you wouldn't see NIO on Degiro.

stockshares

Bob Harris wrote: »

There's a thread on Tawana here, bought out I think.

I don't know why you wouldn't see NIO on Degiro.

Thanks for the Link, the NIO stock shows up but there is no price available for it. There is just a dollar symbol beside it. Its available on the NYSE.

Cute Hoor

Could be a chance for a quick trade in GTXI today, wouldn't be putting the pension fund on it

q85dw7osi4lebg

Bob Harris wrote: »

I've averaged down here quite a bit. Results next week on the 12th so hopefully some decent sales and this can begin to climb out of the slump.
It's market cap is only about $250m and must surely be a buy out candidate.

In at 2.71.

Think I last got out around 5 ISH, seems very cheap now. Last cash on hand account was more than the current market cap.

Bob Harris

NIO getting another beating today. Looks like an good entry point.
But wait till I buy, soon as I do it'll drop another 5%.

Bob Harris

Bob Harris wrote: »

NIO getting another beating today. Looks like an good entry point.
But wait till I buy, soon as I do it'll drop another 5%.

In at $7.20 - on it's way to 7 now.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Bob Harris wrote: »

In at $7.20 - on it's way to 7 now.

Thanks for taking it for the team, I'll get in again at 6.50

evolving_doors

stockshares wrote: »

Thanks for the Link, the NIO stock shows up but there is no price available for it. There is just a dollar symbol beside it. Its available on the NYSE.

Degiro is just for trading. Get your realtime prices elsewhere. Degiro is about a day behind... so be careful when you think your portfolio says x .... and it's actually y.

Bob Harris

evolving_doors wrote: »

Degiro is just for trading. Get your realtime prices elsewhere. Degiro is about a day behind... so be careful when you think your portfolio says x .... and it's actually y.

Very true...as in y da fuq did I buy that pos!

Pussyhands

I'm back in the negative All my great returns from last week or so...gone!

NIO & BABA

littlevillage

Bob Harris wrote: »

I've averaged down here quite a bit. Results next week on the 12th so hopefully some decent sales and this can begin to climb out of the slump.
It's market cap is only about $250m and must surely be a buy out candidate.

Done exactly the same. My BEP on VSTM was over $6 got that down to $4 ish now. Fingers crossed for next week.

XMG

Did anyone watch BPTH today? Opened at less that $5 yesterday to over $70 today, halted numerous times on the way and the way down. all on fairly fluffy news

Bob Harris

XMG wrote: »

Did anyone watch BPTH today? Opened at less that $5 yesterday to over $70 today, halted numerous times on the way and the way down. all on fairly fluffy news

1m shares float, 35m traded. Mostly due to that.
Wouldn't like to be holding that bag!

Gruffalo22

I had some BPTH shares but sold around $6 on Monday. It was $12 by Wednesday, $60 on Thursday and is now $38 :mad:

Cute Hoor

Gruffalo22 wrote: »

I had some BPTH shares but sold around $6 on Monday. It was $12 by Wednesday, $60 on Thursday and is now $38 :mad:

If it wasn't for bad luck you'd have no luck!!