All Things Met Eireann Related Go in Here (MOD NOTE #1)

prosaic wrote: »

Weather warnings: Include a probability indicator

I know a lot of people quibble about the warning system. I was just now wondering if it would help to include probability in it? Take this current weather system, Diana, where it is still not at all clear how it might play out.

One could devise a part-red part-orange warning which indicates chances for red and chances for orange, like 30%/70%. This could be a rectangle with left 1/3 of it coloured orange and right 2/3 coloured red in proportion to the probability of 30% - 70%.

No. It would have to be a circle.
Pie charts all the way.

prosaic wrote: »

My rectangle is a two sided argument. There's hardly even a point to a circle.:)

As the warnings are aimed at the general public I suspect the view is to keep them as uncomplicated as possible.

Lokk at all of the opinions . arguments, disagreements over the simple 4 colour system at present.

Image how people would react if you start introducing probabilities.

I understand the point being amde but its the overall target audience that matters, not those that appreciate the finer points.

The back lash has begun, they cant win

https://www.breakingnews.ie/business/retail-industry-body-blast-alarmist-met-eireann-weather-warnings-893018.html

From a Met Eireann point they can be in an impossible position at times.

I'm in retail and it's such an interesting year to watch how different weather events have changed shoppers behaviours.

Ophelia was such a shock. first time red warning really happened.
Business didn't have a clue how to act. Very few, if any had extreme weather plans.
Customer turned it into a party. Many small shops sold more alcohol that Monday than they would at Christmas.
But the big shops didnt. Due to closing

Storm Emma
Was very similar. Small shops stayed open and got cleaned out. Bigger shops had to close ( some got destroyed )
As with Ophelia takeaways had a bumper time of it. But restaurants didn't.
Local pubs that stayed open ran out of booze. City centre ones lost out big time.

The heat wave.
This caused a huge spend in nearly all areas for the first 3/4week of it. Always amazed me how quick stores could find and sell 20tf inflatable pools.
But people soon got tired of it or ran out of money.

This some believe, it
has been somewhat responsible for what many business are seeing as a poor run up to Christmas.

Extreme weather this year has shown me new trends and taught many new things my previous 20 years didn't.


The new weather warming system M.E. are using has changed the game, in this current climate of accountability.

Both M.E. and many business are caught in a no win or big win situation .

SSW -AO and other terms like it could become things business owners will be having dreams or nightmares about

Very interesting times in both weather and business

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Evelyn says it's the weather that is bad not the forecasting.

She was so dismissive

Discodog wrote: »

The problem is the media, not the forecast, turning every forecast into a "killer" event.

I heard or read one report where Met Eireann said that Saturday had been misreported in that they had a warning for the morning but some media had misreported it as lasting all day, can't find evidence of of this now that I look for it.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2019/0116/1023682-met-eireann-concern-over-spurious-weather-warnings/

squarecircles wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2019/0116/1023682-met-eireann-concern-over-spurious-weather-warnings/

Saw that. Literally no mention by Eoin Moran or Evelyn of the introduction of an impact-based system.
Has this project fallen off the shelf?
Not long ago a slideshow presentation by Gerry Murphy proposing it was doing the rounds here (possibly linked earlier in this 17 page thread)

Restaurants association of Ireland and yes it says HSE but it might be a typo, was wondering about that myself, surely that would come under the HSA.

piuswal wrote: »

Who got this request, from HSE?
What address is provided?

It was an email sent to RAI members from RAI. There was a link from surveymonkey attached.

seems ok on the main website

National Outlook

Headline: Relatively cool and unsettled weather will continue for the rest of the week.

Monday night: Any scattered showers will die out and the night will be dry, with clear intervals. Minimum temperatures 6 to 8 Celsius, in light to moderate northerly breezes.

Tuesday: Mainly dry and bright, with a mix of cloud and sunny spells, but a few well scattered showers will develop during the day. Temperatuers will be close to normal, or a little below, with maximum values of 14 to 18 Celsius. It will be coolest on north and east facing coasts, in mostly moderate north to northeast winds, winds fresh in some coastal areas. Tuesday night will be mainly dry, but rain may develop on the southeast coast towards morning. Min. 7 to 9 C.

Wednesday: Still some uncertainty in the forecast, but early indications are for a spell of persistent and locally heavy rain to move gradually in from the east, becoming widespread across Leinster and much of Munster by the end of the day, but Atlantic coastal counties will remain mostly dry until Wednesday night. Quite windy, with fresh north to northeast winds, strong on some coasts. Cool in the east and south, with max. temperatures of 12 to 14 Celsius, but milder elsewhere, with values of 13 to 16 Celsius.

Thursday to Sunday, inclusive: Current indications suggest that the weather will remain relatively cool and unsettled with scattered showers and possibly longer spells of rain at times, but good sunny spells also. Winds mostly moderate, northerly at first, becoming mainly west or southwest.

Just checked the app. Can see your point for sure. almost fell asleep reading it.