Off Topic Thread 4.0

Buer · 18-12-2018 11:14AM

Squidgy Black wrote: »

There's going to be a second referendum. I can feel it.

I would imagine there is significant support beyond those who have publicly called for it at this point. But they're not going to want to put their heads above the trench to voice that opinion and draw the ire of hard line voters.

I would even guess May is among those but, politically, it cannot come from her and she needs to be seen to be doing everything to deliver Brexit. She cannot preside over a no deal exit.

Squidgy Black · 18-12-2018 11:44AM

troyzer wrote: »

There will not be a second referendum until Labour at the very least throw their support behind it, which they haven't done yet. Corbyn is really getting on my tits. He's clearly eurosceptic and doesn't care that his party isn't, including the grassroots which supported him in the contest.

In any case, I can see Parliament taking power off May and declaring their intent to ask the EU to extend article 50. If May doesn's ****, she needs to get off the pot and I think Parliament will be unwilling to tolerate her procrastinating bull**** for much longer.

The issue with them extending article 50 is the European Parliament Elections. The UK are legally obliged to take part if they're still a member in May, and they'll leave themselves wide open to legal challenge as it's potentially an infringement on EU citizen rights.

May is trying to drag this out as far as she can, until they reach panic stations and fold.

At this stage I honestly think she wants to get the boot.

troyzer · 18-12-2018 11:53AM

Squidgy Black wrote: »

The issue with them extending article 50 is the European Parliament Elections. The UK are legally obliged to take part if they're still a member in May, and they'll leave themselves wide open to legal challenge as it's potentially an infringement on EU citizen rights.

May is trying to drag this out as far as she can, until they reach panic stations and fold.

At this stage I honestly think she wants to get the boot.

Here's my scenario:

The vote is heavily defeated in January, Corbyn launches a no confidence vote. It fails. May steps down anyway. Someone launches a vote for a second referendum. It's wrangled over and an AV system is implemented for three options:

1) May's deal
2) Remain
3) No deal.

It would probably take into mid February at least to finalise it and I think you need 10 weeks minimum from royal assent to polling day which would bring it right up until the start of May.

Parliament would ask for a six week extension to article 50 conditional on the referendum being legally binding the day after. That way they'd avoid the elections and as far as the EU is concerned, they have nothing to worry about. Everything would be sorted internally by the UK.

In the meantime, the other EU parliaments can ratify the withdrawal agreement so it's ready to go if the UK signs off. Remain would simply require a unilateral withdrawal of Article 50, something which the courts have said the UK can do on their own and no deal is just that, no deal. Doesn't require any ground work to be laid in advance. All of this means that if it's planned right, the result of the vote could be implemented very quickly.

There are four major issues:

1) Labour need to support it and enough Tories need to be willing to cross the aisle.

2) Who the hell is the PM during this time?

3) What if there are legal challenges to an expedited referendum process?

4) What if the EU just tells them to **** off?

stephen_n · 18-12-2018 02:08PM

4) won’t happen, it’s not in the EU’s interest to do so.

troyzer · 18-12-2018 02:16PM

stephen_n wrote: »

4) won’t happen, it’s not in the EU’s interest to do so.

As Squidgy said, the EU parliament becomes an issue and maybe some parties in some countries don't want Brexit to become part of the campaign. They might want it done and dusted by then.

It's not about it being in the interets of the EU, it's about the interests of each governing party in the EU 27 because there needs to be unanimous agreement to extend article 50.

stephen_n · 18-12-2018 02:54PM

troyzer wrote: »

As Squidgy said, the EU parliament becomes an issue and maybe some parties in some countries don't want Brexit to become part of the campaign. They might want it done and dusted by then.

It's not about it being in the interets of the EU, it's about the interests of each governing party in the EU 27 because there needs to be unanimous agreement to extend article 50.

In all fairness if France and Germany want it, concessions will be made and it will happen. It's in the best interest of everyone in Europe for Brexit to go away and I think the powers that be will do anything to facilitate that happening.

Dave_The_Sheep · 18-12-2018 03:03PM

I wonder how the EU powers that be will feel about the UK ****ing around for the last two years, even if they do remain. There has to be some level of punishment, otherwise how will other nations be deterred from flutering around in the same way. I'm just curious as to how it'll be - or is the damage done to their reputations, sterling, etc enough, I wonder.

18-12-2018 03:08PM

Dave_The_Sheep wrote: »

I wonder how the EU powers that be will feel about the UK ****ing around for the last two years, even if they do remain. There has to be some level of punishment, otherwise how will other nations be deterred from flutering around in the same way. I'm just curious as to how it'll be - or is the damage done to their reputations, sterling, etc enough, I wonder.

Markets and investors already punishing them. They'll get little international investment anytime soon.

sydthebeat · 18-12-2018 03:09PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Markets and investors already punishing them. They'll get little international investment anytime soon.

yep, britian is haemorrhaging business already and the rate will go exponential if theres a hard brexit

18-12-2018 03:42PM

sydthebeat wrote: »

yep, britian is haemorrhaging business already and the rate will go exponential if theres a hard brexit

Yup - been seeing this first hand since February / March. Clients aren't even remotely hiding the fact that they are moving functions from the UK or creating functions intended for the UK here instead.

It's gotten to a point I'd describe as 'dramatic' as of September.

Tories will be delighted, 4 years of Austerity to blame on the EU and more to come. Will harden the electorate against the EU and then when they remove workers rights and pro consumer EU regulations they can do so defining themselves as being in opposition to the EU like Republicans do in America with anything remotely socialist.

Basically turning themselves into America lite, with high wealth but widespread poverty, poor healthcare, worsening education and a government functioning to further the interest of big business.

And the people who will absolutely suffer the most from it - are the ones most keenly in favour.

Propaganda is a helluva drug.

stephen_n · 18-12-2018 03:52PM

Deleted User wrote: »

And the people who will absolutely suffer the most from it - are the ones most keenly in favour.

Propaganda is a helluva drug.

Most of those in favor of it won’t suffer for long as they’ll be dead soon enough.

Squidgy Black · 18-12-2018 03:57PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yup - been seeing this first hand since February / March. Clients aren't even remotely hiding the fact that they are moving functions from the UK or creating functions intended for the UK here instead.

It's gotten to a point I'd describe as 'dramatic' as of September.

Tories will be delighted, 4 years of Austerity to blame on the EU and more to come. Will harden the electorate against the EU and then when they remove workers rights and pro consumer EU regulations they can do so defining themselves as being in opposition to the EU like Republicans do in America with anything remotely socialist.

Basically turning themselves into America lite, with high wealth but widespread poverty, poor healthcare, worsening education and a government functioning to further the interest of big business.

And the people who will absolutely suffer the most from it - are the ones most keenly in favour.

Propaganda is a helluva drug.

We're winning a ton of UK business at the moment, because companies are using us as their fallback plan. Microsoft are openly referring companies registered in Ireland to complete UK projects.

We also have a ton of applications from UK contractors wanting to work with us under our Irish branch instead of our UK subsidiary.

swiwi_ · 20-12-2018 09:16PM

If you’re struggling to find a gift for the man who has everything...

...lego technic Bugatti Chiron

From the reviews on line it’s about 24 hours of construction.

awec · 20-12-2018 09:47PM

Wouldn’t like to be the guy with that drone when they get a hold of him.

Podge_irl · 20-12-2018 10:14PM

awec wrote: »

Wouldn’t like to be the guy with that drone when they get a hold of him.

I wouldn't like to be him ever - because being such a colossal asshole can't be that much fun.

bilston · 21-12-2018 12:37AM

awec wrote: »

Wouldn’t like to be the guy with that drone when they get a hold of him.

I'd say Vlad is safe from the reach of the UK authorities

The Lost Sheep · 21-12-2018 12:54AM

When are people finishing up work for christmas/back after?
Finished the main job up until new year tonight but am working at races for full festival in Leopardstown and likely working in Thomond at MunsterLeinster as well.

Zzippy · 21-12-2018 12:57AM

Finished today. Sliughtly pissedf noe....

Podge_irl · 21-12-2018 12:59AM

Flew home today, heading back on the 1st. Decent stretch of time - I'm getting a serious appreciation for how important it is what day Christmas falls on these last few years.

The Lost Sheep · 21-12-2018 01:00AM

Zzippy wrote: »

Finished today. Sliughtly pissedf noe....

Had to do two runs to offie today. When finishing up work there was group staying on playing cards of about 20 or so with 5/6 bottles of whiskey as some of prizes for winning and for some reason i ended up leaving with 1 of the jameson bottles :cool:
So thats tomorrow nights drinking sorted.

awec · 21-12-2018 01:02AM

Tomorrows the last day for three weeks.

Dave_The_Sheep · 21-12-2018 02:32AM

Finished last Friday. It's been a surprisingly healthy week since then. Until yesterday. Cheap cider and kebabs. Only thing missing was a canal.

mfceiling · 21-12-2018 04:11AM

3.10 and I think I'm drunk.

troyzer · 21-12-2018 07:46AM

Just got into the office for my last day there.

I'm not back in work until the 2nd but I'm heading to a conference that week. Not back in the office until the 7th.

Stheno · 21-12-2018 08:47AM

Finished today till the 7th

21-12-2018 08:54AM

This evening at some stage. Don't have time for Christmas this year and neither apparently do any of my clients!

Will defo be working next week albeit from home.

Buer · 21-12-2018 09:33AM

Slinking off a lunch today. Would happily work some days between now and the new year but we fall foul of forced annual leave days. I'd much rather take annual leave at times when I genuinely need to do so.

Still, it will be nice to have almost 2 weeks off with the family.

Bazzo · 21-12-2018 09:42AM

Jaysus some serious breaks here! Finished up Wednesday and flew home at 10pm, flying back on the 27th and back in work the following day.

awec · 21-12-2018 09:44AM

Buer wrote: »

Slinking off a lunch today. Would happily work some days between now and the new year but we fall foul of forced annual leave days. I'd much rather take annual leave at times when I genuinely need to do so.

Still, it will be nice to have almost 2 weeks off with the family.

I always pictured you as a home economics teacher or something. This post is doing nothing to refute my beliefs.

dregin · 21-12-2018 09:46AM

Finished up Wednesday. Had hoped to be off since last Friday as number 1 was due, but they're having different ideas and labour will most likely be indiced after 2 weeks according to the consultant. No consideration for those us of us needing to start their Christmas shopping ðŸ˜‚

We've a sweet deal in that the office is closed between Christmas and new year and we're given those days off on top of annual leave. I've 20 days paternity leave to use over the year after birth, so will probably be off until the end of January. Not too shabby.

Off Topic Thread 4.0

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