Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Tell me how · 12-12-2018 12:32PM

VinLieger wrote: »

But would they be decimated? I could see them indeed losing but getting decimated is a reach considering how poor labour have consistently been polling under corbyns leadership.

If they went in to a GE with May leading then I think decimation would be a distinct possibility. All opponents would point to this fiasco and suggesting the Tories think it was fine to continue that way.

Without her as leader, I wouldn't be surprised if a coalition is needed after such (not yet announced) election. Labour's (continued) suggestions that there is time for a GE and a renegotiation and acceptance in the HoC before the 29th of March is laughably amateurish.

VinLieger · 12-12-2018 12:33PM

robinph wrote: »

A general election can't happen before the deadline date as they are out of time. Triggering the leadup to an election though wouldn't be enough for the EU to grant an extension to A50 until it is over, unless Corbyn's position was stated as being No Brexit. If Labour is still in the wanting a Brexit but not May's version camp then the EU will just stick with things as they are and wait for crash out during the election campaign.

Corbyn probably then wins by default, but it's too late to do anything about it by then.

The idea of them crashing out due to and during an election seems absolutely insane and ridiculous which means its probably one of the more likely scenarios at this stage.

Shelga · 12-12-2018 12:34PM

Can’t Labour oust Corbyn and install someone like Chuka Ummuna as leader. God, the whole thing is such a mess of epic proportions.

Leroy42 · 12-12-2018 12:39PM

Shelga wrote: »

Can’t Labour oust Corbyn and install someone like Chuka Ummuna as leader. God, the whole thing is such a mess of epic proportions.

No, because weirdly the members seem to love Corbyn even though he is completely useless at the job, seems to be against everything they want and appears not to care what the rest of the party wants.

In such a crisis, any opposition party should be streets ahead (20+ points). People said that FG couldn't lose the GE after 2008, but Corbyn will show them that nothing is a given.

seamus · 12-12-2018 12:40PM

Shelga wrote: »

Can’t Labour oust Corbyn and install someone like Chuka Ummuna as leader. God, the whole thing is such a mess of epic proportions.

They could, but they don't want to.

Corbyn won two leadership contests in 2015 & 2016, and had a massive election success in 2017, despite being pretty clearly anti-EU.

Labour doesn't know what it wants. The membership backed Remain, but overwhelmingly want a euroskeptic leader.

Tell me how · 12-12-2018 12:41PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

No, because weirdly the members seem to love Corbyn even though he is completely useless at the job, seems to be against everything they want and appears not to care what the rest of the party wants.

Isn't it the case that the grass roots support him because at that level beliefs are largely idealistic and so his socialist claims are not examined too closely. But, within the parliamentary party, where the aim has to be seizing power and enacting policies which are feasible, there is not much love for him.

robinph · 12-12-2018 12:44PM

At least the Tory process for picking a leader makes sense, in that the leader of their MP's is decided on based on who the MP's pick that they are prepared to follow.

The Labour system being to ask the general public, or anyone that paid their £20 membership fee, what they think. Then regardless of what the rest of the MP's that they will be leading think that is who they MP's have to follow.

dr.fuzzenstein · 12-12-2018 12:46PM

opinionated3 wrote: »

No bother. Thanks.

Can confirm, wasn't talking about you.

J Mysterio · 12-12-2018 12:49PM

Blowfish wrote: »

Actually, right now they legally can't, not due to the Article 50 text, but due to their own Withdrawal Bill text which states the EU treaties will no longer be in effect from 'Exit day'. It then defines exit day to be 29th March 2019. They'd have to go through the absolute political shitstorm of revoking the withdrawal bill before they can cancel Article 50.

This is a very interesting point.
Its just incredible where we are.

ancapailldorcha · 12-12-2018 12:51PM

seamus wrote: »

They could, but they don't want to.

Corbyn won two leadership contests in 2015 & 2016, and had a massive election success in 2017, despite being pretty clearly anti-EU.

Labour doesn't know what it wants. The membership backed Remain, but overwhelmingly want a euroskeptic leader.

Momentum, Labour's pro-Corbyn party-within-a-party is overwhelmingly anti-Brexit in sharp contrast with Corbyn:

According to Momentum, the consultation of members also found that:

92% want all Labour MPs to vote down Theresa May’s Brexit deal
89% believe a no-deal Brexit should be rejected as a viable option
81% believe Brexit is likely to make things worse for their friends, family and community
96% signed a petition calling on May to immediately end the uncertainty around the rights and status of EU citizens living in the UK and UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU.

Source.

They want Corbyn and a reversal of neoliberalism. They also want to stay in the EU. These things aren't necessarily mutually exclusive but they are if they are determined to stick with Eurosceptics like Corbyn, McDonnell & Milne.

Dyr · 12-12-2018 12:58PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Isn't it the case that the grass roots support him because at that level beliefs are largely idealistic and so his socialist claims are not examined too closely. But, within the parliamentary party, where the aim has to be seizing power and enacting policies which are feasible, there is not much love for him.

They've had numerous cracks at him and punched themselves out, the grass roots and the party members seem to despise the Blairites so they can forget about replacing Corbyn with anyone from their ranks

PropJoe10 · 12-12-2018 01:09PM

PMQ's is a good watch so far. Turning into an absolute rabble!

J Mysterio · 12-12-2018 01:12PM

PropJoe10 wrote: »

PMQ's is a good watch so far. Turning into an absolute rabble!

Thanks for the reminder. I'm going in!

intellectual dosser · 12-12-2018 01:15PM

PropJoe10 wrote: »

PMQ's is a good watch so far. Turning into an absolute rabble!

TM just so much better at the rabble than JC.

Despite some major mistakes, I admire her ability to 'keep calm and carry on'.

devnull · 12-12-2018 01:15PM

Did May really say that there was a meaningful vote already in 2016, suggesting that there isn't a need for another one and instead they will just crash out by kicking the can down past the exit date so they run out of time? That's how it's being presented by some on twitter.

hill16bhoy · 12-12-2018 01:16PM

seamus wrote: »

ancapailldorcha made a comment a couple of days ago about how the Brexiters in parliament were already leveraged in favour of Brexit. They've placed their bets, moved around their money, and their financial future now rides on ensuring that Brexit happens, ideally as hard as possible.

"Leveraged" is one way of putting this.

Insider trading, fraud, financial terrorism and treason are others.

PropJoe10 · 12-12-2018 01:17PM

devnull wrote: »

Did May really say that there was a meaningful vote already in 2016, suggesting that there isn't a need for another one and instead they will just crash out by kicking the can down past the exit date so they run out of time? That's how it's being presented by some on twitter.

It's starting to look as if that might be May's strategy, yeah. Kick the vote on her deal out as far as possible and promote the "this deal or no deal" concept. The pressure will keep increasing.

Shelga · 12-12-2018 01:17PM

A baying mob in the House of Commons!

Thargor · 12-12-2018 01:29PM

Shelga wrote: »

A baying mob in the House of Commons!

The way she turns every question about her various disasters into 'Well yeah but what about Labour?' is embarrassing.

MrMusician18 · 12-12-2018 01:32PM

PropJoe10 wrote: »

PMQ's is a good watch so far. Turning into an absolute rabble!

Hearrrrrrrrrr hearrrrrrrrrr

I know pmqs is mostly theatre, but this is pure pantomime.

DOCARCH · 12-12-2018 01:33PM

Thargor wrote: »

The way she turns every question about her various disasters into 'Well yeah but what about Labour? is embarrassing.

FYP.

Part of the problem is lack of effective opposition in HoC.

LeinsterDub · 12-12-2018 01:33PM

Thargor wrote: »

The way she turns every question about her various disasters into 'Well yeah but what about Labour?' is embarrassing.

Seems she's learned a thing or two from the DUP. Whataboutye!

sjb25 · 12-12-2018 01:36PM

Thargor wrote: »

The way she turns every question about her various disasters into 'Well yeah but what about Labour?' is embarrassing.

Order order the prime minister WILL BE HEARD

blackcard · 12-12-2018 01:37PM

The famine getting a mention in the HOC

sjb25 · 12-12-2018 01:38PM

The prime minister just said she will not leave us without food in Ireland thank god for that!!

Laois_Man · 12-12-2018 01:38PM

They think they still have the power to starve us

They think it's still 1848!!

Leroy42 · 12-12-2018 01:39PM

I'll say one thing, that story about the 13 yo that committed suicide due to online and social media abuse puts everything in perspective.

While the HoC fannys around not having a clue what they are doing or what they want in terms of Brexit, there is a real world out there which is being left fall apart since nobody is paying attention.

J Mysterio · 12-12-2018 01:43PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I'll say one thing, that story about the 13 yo that committed suicide due to online and social media abuse puts everything in perspective.

While the HoC fannys around not having a clue what they are doing or what they want in terms of Brexit, there is a real world out there which is being left fall apart since nobody is paying attention.

Im not sure it does put everything in perspective. There are lots of areas in the UK which are struggling badly now, they will be royally fucķed in a No Deal Brexit. You would see a lot more suicides as jobs are lost and businesses go under. As services are removed and social welfare goes down while prices go up. It could get a lot worse.

LeinsterDub · 12-12-2018 01:45PM

DAVID Davis and Dominic Raab have teamed up to launch their alternative Brexit deal today in an open pitch for the keys to Number 10.

The two ex-Brexit Secretaries appeared on stage with DUP leader Arlene Foster this morning in a surprise bid to drum up support for their ideas.....

It will scrap the hated Northern Ireland backstop which is why so many MPs are opposed to the PM's agreement.

This back-up plan, to stop there being a hard border in Ireland if there was no trade deal, would put the UK in a customs territory with the EU.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7959113/brexit-deal-latest-david-davis-dominic-raab-alternative/

Davis, Raab and Foster have invented some new unicorns!

Leroy42 · 12-12-2018 01:49PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7959113/brexit-deal-latest-david-davis-dominic-raab-alternative/

Davis, Raab and Foster have invented some new unicorns!

Even a cursory glance shows that it absurd, and what the hell is Foster doing there, it completely goes against her main principle

But Mr Davis and Mr Raab would try and replace the backstop with a ten-year, extendable agreement.

They say this would involve free trade in goods, no tariffs, and a Max Fac-style solution for the border.

The UK wouldn't be in the same customs union territory, it said.

So, they would leave the EU without a backstop but stay in the CU for a further 10 years! Which could be extended! And NI would be treated differently until some new systems could be developed!

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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