Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Enzokk · 12-12-2018 08:46AM

Vote tonight on her leadership.

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1072757148235558912

Vote between 6-8pm and she needs 158 votes to win.

devnull · 12-12-2018 08:48AM

Full statement from Sir Graham Brady

The chairman of the backbench 1922 committee of Conservative MPs said: "The threshold of 15% of the parliamentary party seeking a vote of confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party has been exceeded.

"In accordance with the rules, a ballot will be held between 1800 and 2000 on Wednesday 12th December in committee room 14 of the House of Commons.

"The votes will be counted immediately afterwards and an announcement will be made as soon as possible in the evening.

"Arrangements for the announcement will be released later today.

"I will be available to answer questions about this process on Abingdon Green from 0800 hrs."

It's happening tonight. Moving relatively quickly. More chaos and distraction lies
Ahead

lawred2 · 12-12-2018 08:49AM

What good is that going to serve really?

Not like there's an obvious candidate waiting in the wings

cml387 · 12-12-2018 08:50AM

devnull wrote: »

Sky now reporting threshold for a no confidence vote in Theresa May has been reached.

Seems there's been an influx overnight to push them over the line and the ERG egging on tactics I described earlier were successful.

I heard Owen Patterson on Today just now. He practically accused TM of lying to him over the backstop.

Just interesting to re-iterate the problem the ERG have with the backstop:it's an evil plan by the EU to trap Britain in a customs union.So although the question wasn't put, the answer to the question "If you are so sure your technological solution would work, the backstop won't be needed" would be that "The EU will just refuse to accept it".

DOCARCH · 12-12-2018 08:50AM

devnull wrote: »

....ERG egging on tactics....

I actually hope TM wins the confidence vote and ERG crawl back under the stones they belong (dragging the DUP with them)!

If she does not win, and there is a leadership contest, there will be weeks of pie in the sky bulls**t talk of re-negotiating Brexit.

Not going to happen!

murphaph · 12-12-2018 08:53AM

Folkstonian wrote: »

In all seriousness, would you actually want to join the Schengen area?

Absolutely, as long as the UK or at least NI also joined. I personally rarely cross the land border but fly between Dublin and Berlin often and the waiting times, especially on the Schengen side can be a real pain with kids in tow. I would however not wish for Schengen unless NI was also in it as I am against border controls on the island of Ireland.

Folkstonian wrote: »

Britain and Ireland are incredibly fortunate to be outside of it at the moment.

Sweden is in it and guess what, we were checked by Swedish police as we crossed over into Sweden from Denmark this summer. Every vehicle was stopped and checked. We had to present our passports. Schengen allows for such controls during times of threat. The UK and Ireland could easily impose them if need be.

As AKK said during her CDU leadership acceptance speech, we want a strong Schengen on the outside with no or few restrictions on the inside. That remains the goal for me.

Peregrinus · 12-12-2018 09:03AM

lawred2 wrote: »

What good is that going to serve really?

Not like there's an obvious candidate waiting in the wings

There doesn't need to be an obvious candidate at this stage in the process.

This is a two-stage process. In stage 1, tonight, the question is simply "shall Teresa May continue as party leader?". If the answer by a simple majority is "yes", the process is over. If the answer by a simple majoirty is "no" we move on to stage 2, which is a leadership contest. Teresa May is barred from standing in that contest, but any other member of the parliamentary party can throw his or her hat into the ring.

Of course, it's much easier to vote "no" in stage 1 if you have a clear idea as to who you will vote for in stage 2, but it's not necessary that a majority of members should have the same clear idea about that.

cml387 · 12-12-2018 09:07AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

There doesn't need to be an obvious candidate at this stage in the process.

This is a two-stage process. In stage 1, tonight, the question is simply "shall Teresa May continue as party leader?". If the answer by a simple majority is "yes", the process is over. If the answer by a simple majoirty is "no" we move on to stage 2, which is a leadership contest. Teresa May is barred from standing in that contest, but any other member of the parliamentary party can throw his or her hat into the ring.

Of course, it's much easier to vote "no" in stage 1 if you have a clear idea as to who you will vote for in stage 2, but it's not necessary that a majority of members should have the same clear idea about that.

Would of a majority of 1 be enough?
Hard to see if she only won by a smallish margin that she could carry on.
MT didn't, and she seemed to be in a stronger position.

LeinsterDub · 12-12-2018 09:09AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

There doesn't need to be an obvious candidate at this stage in the process.

This is a two-stage process. In stage 1, tonight, the question is simply "shall Teresa May continue as party leader?". If the answer by a simple majority is "yes", the process is over. If the answer by a simple majoirty is "no" we move on to stage 2, which is a leadership contest. Teresa May is barred from standing in that contest, but any other member of the parliamentary party can throw his or her hat into the ring.

Of course, it's much easier to vote "no" in stage 1 if you have a clear idea as to who you will vote for in stage 2, but it's not necessary that a majority of members should have the same clear idea about that.

There is a stage 1B potentially. She wins but wins by such a fine margin she feels she has to quit.

And also 1C she wins by a fine margin doesn't quit but labour play the how are we except to have confidence in this government card.

And a highly unlikely but possible I believe 2A she looses and pulls a Jeremy and just ignores it

opinionated3 · 12-12-2018 09:09AM

dr.fuzzenstein wrote: »

I believe that the views this poster expresses are not genuine and he may post certain things purely to elicit a response from other posters. In another thread he's a pure bred, good ole' American boy.
I think there's a term for it, can't quite remember it, tip of my tongue, so it is, I think it rhymes with roll...

???. I was merely trying to state the obvious i.e the jobs that would be lost, that could never be replaced etc. We are far better off being in the EU than out of it. No trolling whatsoever on my part. And I'm 100% Irish btw

12-12-2018 09:12AM

Is there a difference between a vote of no confidence triggered like this, compared to what many wanted Corbyn to do yesterday? Does a win in this mean he can't do that in January?

Peregrinus · 12-12-2018 09:12AM

opinionated3 wrote: »

???. I was merely trying to state the obvious i.e the jobs that would be lost, that could never be replaced etc. We are far better off being in the EU than out of it. No trolling whatsoever on my part. And I'm 100% Irish btw

I think Dr Fuzzenstein was referring not to you, but to the poster to whom you were replying.

Podge_irl · 12-12-2018 09:14AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Is there a difference between a vote of no confidence triggered like this, compared to what many wanted Corbyn to do yesterday? Does a win in this mean he can't do that in January?

This is just amongst the Conservative party to vote on their confidence in her as leader. It is unconnected to a vote of no confidence in parliament which can essentially be called whenever they want.

opinionated3 · 12-12-2018 09:14AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think Dr Fuzzenstein was referring not to you, but to the poster to whom you were replying.

No bother. Thanks.

Peregrinus · 12-12-2018 09:17AM

cml387 wrote: »

Would of a majority of 1 be enough?
Hard to see if she only won by a smallish margin that she could carry on.
MT didn't, and she seemed to be in a stronger position.

LeinsterDub wrote: »

There is a stage 1B potentially. She wins but wins by such a fine margin she feels she has to quit.

You're both correct; my bad. If she wins, but by an unconvincing margin, she may decide she has to go, or the men in grey suits may visit her and explain to her that she has made that decision.

cml387 wrote: »

And also 1C she wins by a fine margin doesn't quit but labour play the how are we except to have confidence in this government card.

Yup.

cml387 wrote: »

And a highly unlikely but possible I believe 2A she looses and pulls a Jeremy and just ignores it

Now that would be a movie worth seeing.

When the Portuguese dictator Salazar had a stroke in the early 1970s he was not expected to recover, so the President removed him as Prime Minister and appointed a replacement. However, he did recover, at least to an extent, and everybody was afraid to tell him he was no longer Prime Minister. He spent the last two years of his life believing that he was Prime Minister of Portugal, living in the Prime Minister's official residence, reading cabinet papers and issuing orders and directives, and eventually died in the belief that he was still Prime Minister of Portugal.

Peregrinus · 12-12-2018 09:20AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Is there a difference between a vote of no confidence triggered like this, compared to what many wanted Corbyn to do yesterday? Does a win in this mean he can't do that in January?

Yes, there's a difference. This evening's vote is a vote by Tory MPs as to whether they have confidence in her as leader of the Tory Party. Corbyn was looking at a vote as to whether Parliament has confidence in her as Prime Minister.

If she loses this evening's vote (or wins, but by too small a margin) then she ceases to be leader of the Tory party. Unless there are further developments she stays on as PM while the Tory party chooses a new leader, who then become PM in her place.

But if she lost a vote of confidence in Parliament the almost certain outcome would be an early general election.

cml387 · 12-12-2018 09:24AM

The danger of a leadership contest (if TM loses this evening) is that it opens the contest to the constituency associations, most of whose members make the ERG look like persons of sweet reasonableness.

robinph · 12-12-2018 09:30AM

This is surely just an exercise in making sure nothing gets resolved anytime soon so that the Brexit mob get to push the UK off the cliff.

DOCARCH · 12-12-2018 09:32AM

cml387 wrote: »

The danger of a leadership contest (if TM loses this evening) is that it opens the contest to the constituency associations, most of whose members make the ERG look like persons of sweet reasonableness.

It's the MPs who eventually, after whittling down, put forward 2 candidates for election (by MPs and all members of the party).

DOCARCH · 12-12-2018 09:33AM

robinph wrote: »

This is surely just an exercise in making sure nothing gets resolved anytime soon so that the Brexit mob get to push the UK off the cliff.

Pretty much! Exercise in self interest!

Russman · 12-12-2018 09:37AM

You'd have to wonder about the point of this move.
If she wins, nothing much has changed, those that vote against her tonight will still vote down the "deal" in the HoC. If she loses tonight, and some other head banger is in charge, the EU isn't going to suddenly say "ahh ok, you can have whatever you want just because its you....", the EU will tell him/her that the deal still is what it is, which is what it was last week.

DOCARCH · 12-12-2018 09:37AM

A lot of cabinet members....likes of Gove and Fox....coming out saying the will support TM in vote of confidence.

Peregrinus · 12-12-2018 09:38AM

robinph wrote: »

This is surely just an exercise in making sure nothing gets resolved anytime soon so that the Brexit mob get to push the UK off the cliff.

May's supporters are already saying that, if May loses and the party has to choose a new leader, it will be necessary to seek an Article 50 extension from the EU.

There is of course no guarantee that the EU would agree. But the point is to spook people into thinking that dumping May will proloing the agony, not necessarily to Brexiters' advantage.

Peregrinus · 12-12-2018 09:39AM

DOCARCH wrote: »

A lot of cabinet members....likes of Gove and Fox....coming out saying the will support TM in vote of confidence.

Par for the course. There is no advantage to publicly knifing May at this point, and it works against you if you hope to succeed her. All those who are eyeing her apartment in No. 10 will publicly profess their undying loyalty today.

ancapailldorcha · 12-12-2018 09:40AM

The BBC has produced a helpful image on how a new Prime Minister would be chosen:

I'm surprised that they've actually done this. Who on earth do they think will actually replace her? Rees-Mogg and Johnson are glorified protesters. I'm praying that this isn't some sort of ruse to push through a hard Brexit though someone like Rees-Mogg would easily be able to patch things up with the DUP. I can't see the whole of the government allowing a hard Brexit either.

DOCARCH · 12-12-2018 09:41AM

Russman wrote: »

If she loses tonight, and some other head banger is in charge, the EU isn't going to suddenly say "ahh ok, you can have whatever you want just because its you...."

I think TM has every chance of winning the confidence vote as realists will see the writing on the wall for Brexit! A leadership election typically takes around 6 weeks!

The EU will not extend A50, for re-negotiation, just because there is new PM.

robinph · 12-12-2018 09:43AM

DOCARCH wrote: »

A lot of cabinet members....likes of Gove and Fox....coming out saying the will support TM in vote of confidence.

Because they don't want to be the PM during the deal making part of the process, they want to come in after and claim to be the one who can fix it. Daft for anyone to put themselves forward for the job.

She may be a rubbish PM, but at least she hasn't done the sensible thing and run away from it.

Christy42 · 12-12-2018 09:43AM

Pretty much. If May was the wrong person to hold the negotiations then this should have been done months ago. To say the least.

This is time wasting. Wonder if they think if they send someone new to Brussels then the EU would be willing to go again (and delay the upcoming crash out).

VinLieger · 12-12-2018 09:45AM

Realistically is there anyone with enough popular support to win a leadership election?

cml387 · 12-12-2018 09:45AM

DOCARCH wrote: »

A lot of cabinet members....likes of Gove and Fox....coming out saying the will support TM in vote of confidence.

They really have no choice. They're so deep in now that all sides would treat them with contempt if they bailed now.

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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